最近，独立游戏开发公司CrowdStar认为未来谷歌Android和Chrome等手机和社交平台将引领社交游戏产业的第三轮发展高潮。

在与分析公司Lazard Capital Markets的会议中，Crowdstar公司主席Peter Relan提出未来手机平台将成为十分重要的营销渠道，谷歌Android智能手机平台和Chrome浏览器运营系统的重要性将在未来逐渐显现。

CrowdStar

Relan认为Facebook社交网站为广大社交游戏公司提供了“有效”而“系统”的增长。他认为Facebook社交网站在过去两周采用的新政策——允许用户向朋友发送应用“请求”促进病毒式传播——加速了游戏的发展。对此，Lazard Capital Markets分析公司的Colin Sebastian表示“Facebook社交网站在禁用病毒式营销技术近一年后又一次转变态度，表明了其对游戏发展的重视。”

分析家认为Facebook社交网站的这一转变是出于对虚拟货币Facebook Credits未来发展的考虑。目前，Facebook可以从使用Facebook Credits的游戏交易中抽取30%的收入，因此游戏无疑是实现网站盈利的主要渠道。

另外，CrowdStar公司主席在会议上还提出虽然社交游戏工作室的收购费用不断增长，然而实际上社交游戏玩家的数量及投入时间也呈增长趋势，因此他认为目前“游戏的每用户平均收入（ARPU）仍然处于稳定状态。”

对此，Lazard Capital Markets也认为尽管今年3月Facebook对游戏垃圾通告进行限制后，社交游戏的ECPI（用户获得成本）较之去年昂贵了许多，但仍然十分具有吸引力。

随着ECPI不断增长，分析公司认为过去采用大量病毒式宣传渠道的FarmVille等热门Facebook游戏的玩家数量将大幅度下滑。未来的人们游戏不得不更加细致入微。

据游戏邦了解，面对目前社交网络的局势变幻，凭借4700万月活跃用户排名Facebook第二的社交游戏开发公司CrowdStar表示每月完成1美元ARPU的任务十分轻松，偶尔ARPU甚至高达3美元，而在1年前，虽然ECPI价格较低，但ARPU却仅为0.3到1美元。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Independent developer CrowdStar (Happy Aquarium) predicts that mobile and social platforms, such as Google’s Android and Chrome, will drive the third phase of industry growth for social games.

In a conference call with analyst firm Lazard Capital Markets, CrowdStar chairman Peter Relan forecasts that mobile platforms will present “an important new distribution channel.” He says Google’s Android smartphone platform and Chrome browser operating system will be important channels over time.

Relan still believes Facebook offers “meaningful” and “systematic” growth for social game companies, though. He notes the social network has initiated new policies in the past two weeks designed to accelerate growth for games, like promoting viral growth through app “requests” users can send to their friends.

“We believe this move is a major step for Facebook following a year of stifling viral marketing techniques, demonstrating its commitment to games, and should immediately drive faster growth for games, in our view,” says Lazard Capital Markets’ Colin Sebastian.

The analyst adds that this step is essential considering the social network’s implementation of Facebook Credits, its universal virtual currency (the site takes a cut from purchases with the currency): “As Facebook now collects a 30 percent toll on transactions, video games should remain a key monetization tool for the site.”

CrowdStar’s chairman also mentions that new customer acquisition costs are increasing for social game studios, but the number of players and the time they spend with titles continue to increase. He says conversion rates and “average revenue per user” (ARPU) remain steady, too.

Lazard Capital Markets believes “effective cost per install” (ECPI) for social game studios is still attractive, though it’s more expensive than last year due to Facebook’s restrictions on notification spam in March.

With these ECPI increases, the analyst group says the likelihood of big Facebook hits like FarmVille, which took advantage of now unavailable viral channels for its growth, is “significantly reduced”, while future popular titles will likely have to target a specific niche.

Despite current challenges, CrowdStar, which has the second largest audience of gamers on Facebook with a total of 47 million monthly users, claims required monthly ARPUs of $1 are “easily obtainable” and can even reach $3, compared to monthly ARPUs of $0.30 to $1 a year ago on much lower ECPIs. （Source：gamasutra）