本文原作者：Matthew Handrahan 译者ciel chen

消费者在手游领域的消费额在2021年将超过1000亿美元，根据App Annie发布的预测，手游APP消费占总消费额中的绝大部分。

App Annie预测道：2021年，在所有的移动端App Store上的总消费额将略超1390亿美元，相比2016年的618亿美元，翻了一番不止。其中游戏APP消费增长将遵循相似的轨迹——相比去年的504亿美元，游戏APP消费额在2021年也将翻一番不止，达到1052亿美元。

mobile games market(from games industry.biz)

而非游戏APP是2016年下载量的主要来源，这在将来也将继续如此，但是他们在2021年将只贡献出338亿美元的总收入。

中国作为下载量和消费者花费方面最重要的单一市场，将继续加强自己的地位——其下载量的CAGR增长值达19%，其消费者花费的CAGR增长值更是高达24%。在2021年，全球市场App总消费为1390亿美元，其中中国就占了560亿美元和1300亿下载量。

根据App Annie，我们得知这个势头是由中国作为新兴市场的一个独特优势带动的。现在一线国家几乎饱和，但其余国家仍旧处在“无法被渗透”的状态。尽管印度从庞大的人口方面来说是可以同中国比较的竞争对手，但中国的消费能力“明显高于”印度以及其他新兴市场。

在未来五年，印度在智能手机拥有量上将会有惊人增长，这会让它到2021年截止成为下载量方面的第二大的市场——领先于美国。然而，其用户消费方面仍旧相对较小，这使得广告成为了印度游戏最合适的商业模式。

自2016年至2021年，前五名国家——中国、美国、日本、韩国、英国——的收入占比将从75%增加至85%。

top five countries(from games industry.biz)

IOS系统的APP Store是2016年单个盈利最高的APP商城，在2021年它也将以600亿美元的用户消费总额保持这个地位。然而，App Annie估计2017年将会是安卓系统第一年在软件消费方面超过IOS，在这之前，安卓系统已经坐稳了了下载量方面的领袖位置。

在2021年，Google Play与联合第三方安卓应用的app store将在用户消费方面达780亿美金和超过3000亿的下载量。相比之下，iOS App Store在420亿的下载量中，用户消费将达600亿美元。

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Consumer spend on mobile games will surpass $100 billion in 2021, according to projections released by App Annie, representing the significant majority of total spending on mobile apps in general.

Total spend on mobile apps in 2021, through all app stores, will be just over $139 billion, App Annie said, more than double the $61.8 billion spent in 2016. Games will follow a similar trajectory, more than doubling the $50.4 billion spent last year to $105.2 billion in 2021.

Non-game apps represented a majority of downloads in 2016, and that will also be true in the future, but they will contribute just $33.8 billion of total revenue in 2021.

China will strengthen its position as the single most important market for both downloads and consumer spend, the former growing at a 19% CAGR and the latter rising at an even faster 24% rate. In 2021, China will represent $56 billion of that $139 billion total spend, with almost 130 billion downloads.

According to App Annie, this momentum is due to China’s unique strengths as an emerging market. Tier 1 cities are almost saturated, for example, but the rest of the country is still “underpenetrated.” While India is its closest rival in terms of sheer population size, spending power is “notably higher” in China than in that and many other emerging markets.

India will see “spectacular growth” in smartphone ownership over the next five years, making it the second largest market for downloads – ahead of the US – by the end of 2021. However, it will remain a relatively minor territory in terms of consumer spend, making advertising the most appropriate business model.

The top five countries – China, US, Japan, South Korea and the UK – will increase their revenue share from 75% in 2016 to 85% in 2021.

The iOS App Store was the most lucrative single store in 2016, and it will remain so in 2021 with a $60 billion total consumer spend. However, App Annie estimates that 2017 will be the first year that Android, already the comfortable leader in terms of downloads, will overtake iOS in terms of spending.

In 2021, Google Play and the combined third-party Android app stores will take $78 billion in consumer spending, with more than 300 billion downloads. By contrast, the iOS App Store will take $60 billion from 42 billion downloads.

App Annie closed its report by advising developers to continue investing in mature smartphone markets, because device saturation will not significantly harm the growth of gross revenue on the app stores. Consumer spending on non-game apps will also grow at a faster CAGR than games – 25% versus 16% – as the public becomes more open to spending on news and dating through subscription models.

The focus, though, should be on China, which will represent 41% of all consumer spending on mobile apps by 2021.（source：gamesindustry.biz）