最近，据Deloitte Canada的媒体技术和电子通讯年度预测报告（10th annual Technology Media and Telecommunications Prediction Report）指出，2011年社交媒介的广告营收仍然“相对”较低。

据Deloitte报道指出，在2011年，电视仍然是主要的广告媒介，预计全球电视用户将达到37亿人。据游戏邦了解，尽管PVR（个人视屏录像机）分散了一部分广告营收，但电视媒介2010年的观看时长超过了1400亿小时。Deloitte指出，即便节目采用预先录制的形式，而广告播放速度加快12倍，电视广告仍然是最能影响观看者的广告形式。但也正因此，广告商必须出其不意以从众多广告中脱颖而出。据Deloitte预计，今年媒介广告营收将再增100亿美元，其中电视仍是主要的广告媒介。“简单来说，电视媒介的市场占有率也将有所上升，仍然在所有广告媒介中处于领先地位。”

尽管Facebook社交网站的广告营收预计将超过10亿独立访问用户，广告展示可能超过2万亿次，但社交网站的广告营收仍然“相对”低于其他广告媒介形式。据游戏邦了解，社交网站平均每年每用户4美元的广告营收与电视，电影和报刊等传统广告媒介相比仍然处于较低水平。当然，2011年社交媒介的广告营收预计将增高到10亿美元，但这一数据仅占世界媒介广告总投入的1%。

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有趣的是，此次Deloitte的报告还认为个人电脑的市场占有率将有所下降，认为这种“以不变应万变”的商务电脑将不再适应市场需求。公司可以选择其他产品以适应其商务需求。“这一趋势将促使人们多样化地采用各种掌机设备。尽管目前由于运行系统等因素，个人电脑仍占市场主导，但企业的各种不同需求将最终导致“一体化”电脑退出舞台。”

据游戏邦了解，此次的Deloitte报告虽然包括了许多十分有用的信息，但其中最重要的一部分讲述了不同媒介形式之间的相互影响：个人电脑的市场占有率下降就会营销到社交媒介。而同样的，电视在众多媒介形式中的主要地位也将对社交媒介产生一定影响。譬如，所有主流电视剧基本上都会设有Facebook页面，Twtter Feed，或参加其他社交网站。

由此可见，现在广告商想实现高额营收的话，在考虑广告策略的同时，还要考虑多样化的媒介平台。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

When is trillion of anything humble? According to Deloitte Canada’s 10th annual Technology Media and Telecommunications Prediction Report, a trillion advertisements – the number users will see on social networks in 2011– is relatively modest. They key word is “relatively”.

According to Deloitte, the dominant media for advertising revenue in 2011 will be television. Television has a worldwide audience which will grow to 3.7 billion in 2011. In 2010, this audience watched 140 billion hours of television, and while concerns have been raised about PVR’s detracting from television’s advertising revenue, Deloitte argues that, even if people do pre-record shows, advertisements watched at 12x their regular speed, still impact the viewer. As such, advertisers need to focus on distinct images to stand out. With an estimated additional $10 billion in ad revenue this year, television will continue to be the most dominant media, “in short, television will likely continue to command a growing share of the world’s attention and wallets and will retain its leadership among all media in terms of total revenues”.

Although social networks, like Facebook, are expected to surpass one billion unique members and serve up more than two trillion ads this year, their ad revenues will remain “relatively modest” compared with other forms of media, says the report. At 4$ a member per year, social networks’ advertising revenue is a relatively low average; this is compared to other traditional advertising such as television, film, and other forms of online advertising. Advertising revenues for social media will, however, show immense growth and will be upwards of US 1 billion, but that will account for less than 1% of worldwide spending.

Interestingly, Deloitte predicts the decline of personal computers, arguing that the “one size fits all” model of business computing will no longer apply, as companies can choose from various products which successfully meet the needs of their business; “These growth drivers are likely to foster significant tablet diversity, and although certain form factors and operating systems dominated the market initially, the different requirements of various enterprises mean that ‘one size’ will probably not fit all.”

While there is lots of useful information that can be garnered from the Deloitte Report, what is most pertinent is not the growth and decline of different ad revenues in individual sectors, but, instead, how each area is impacting the other. For example, the move away from Personal Computers is likely influenced by social media, which demands a more interactive user who can connect constantly to their network. Similarly, while television remains a dominant leader in advertising, it, more than any other traditional media (film, print, ect), has made use of social media as key parts of its advertising campaigns; no major television program doesn’t have a Facebook page, Twitter feed, or additional social networking add-ons.

This suggests that if businesses want to make a trillion seem downright common, it is essential, now more than ever, to consider advertising strategies in complement to one another and to think of the potential revenues in the same terms. It is not how an ad’s potential revenue in one sector; it is an ad’s potential across several platforms. （Source：socialtimes）