作者：Tom Curtis

如今我们看到的是暴风雨前的宁静——Zynga即将开始公司备受关注的IPO，华尔街及整个游戏行业都屏息静候最终结果。

昨天下午公司宣布他们即将开始发售股票，每股10美元，计划的IPO总值是10亿美元，成为自谷歌上市以来，IPO规模最大的在线公司。

但由于公司IPO脚步的临近，Zynga需确保自己能够持久发展。现在它依然社交游戏领域的佼佼者，但谁知道未来会发生什么变化？在公司最新SEC文件中，Zynga罗列自己上市后可能会遇到的若干风险。

下面是Zynga当前面临的几大主要风险，以及这些因素如何影响公司未来。

zynfb from techinsidr.com

1. Zynga过于依赖Facebook

没有Facebook，Zynga就无法发展成如今的庞大开发商。这是Zynga的起点，同时也是公司的主要创收平台。在公司最新SEC文件中，Zynga表示，若公司想要维持自己的庞大业务，就得同Facebook建立牢固关系。

只要两家公司的关系保持和睦，Zynga就能够平步青云，但若Facebook决定调整自己的游戏推广政策或转而偏向其他公司，Zynga就会陷入困境。

为防止这种情况的出现，Zynga开始着手自己的平台，这样它就无需再受Facebook的约束。公司于10月份推出自己的独立平台Zynga Direct，虽然此平台同Facebook绑定，但用户无需登陆Facebook便能够体验Zynga游戏。

去年，Zynga同Facebook签订协议，同意将Facebook Credits设置成公司Facebook游戏的主要支付渠道。只要Zynga继续基于此平台发行游戏，它就就会持续使用此货币，直至2015年5月。

2. Zynga依靠快速变化行业中的新商业模式

同整个游戏行业相比，社交游戏处在幼年期，这片领域过去几年来发展很快。Zynga自今已取得巨大成就，但谁知道公司上市后社交领域会演变成什么样子？

随着行业未来几年的变化，Zynga需要确保公司的虚拟商品能够继续富有价值，尤其是当用户给予虚拟货币更多期待时。

此外，公司需要及时获悉用户期望的消费方式，随时跟进新平台、设备、商业模式及其他更多信息。

3. 少数用户和游戏创造绝大多数收入

Zynga的免费模式非常成功，公司基于少数用户创造公司的绝大多数收入。据《福布斯》报道，只有约3%的Zynga玩家（游戏邦注：也就是2.27亿MAU中的770万）会在游戏中掏钱。

这令Zynga开始想方设法留住这些极富价值的少数用户。但其中策略就是寻找方式留住玩家，促使他们持续体验，同时又不会吓跑那些希望进行免费体验的玩家。上周，Zygna CEO Mark Pincus表示，他计划让公司的付费用户翻一番。

此外，过去几年来，Zynga极力宣传自己的各款游戏，但公司依然是基于若干主要作品创收。分析师发现，由于《CityVille》和《Empires & Allies》之类热门作品用户的减少，公司“在增加用户的进程中步履维艰”。

4. Zynga不能没有Mark Pincus？

Zynga创始人兼CEO Mark Pincus是Zynga成功背后的主要因素之一。他建立公司目标、商业策略、工作室文化及核心产品，他在公司的急剧发展中扮演重要角色。

据Bloomberg报道，谷歌总裁Eric Schmidt最近曾称Pincus是“令人望而生畏的坚强谈判者”，称其是“坚持不懈”型人士。正是凭借Pincus的这种商业理念和诀窍，Zynga得以发展至当前状态，失去他对公司来说将是一大打击。

5. 管理公司发展存在众多不确定性

除社交领域外，手机领域是Zynga的下个发展目标。《Words With Friends》在手机平台倍受欢迎，但Zynga不能只是简单地将《CityVille》和《Empires & Allies》之类的Facebook游戏移植至手机平台，然后就此打住。相反，公司推出若干仅瞄准手机平台的游戏，如《Dream Zoo》和《FarmVille Express》，希望在手机市场中探索新发展空间。

Zynga面临的一个重要挑战是，扩充自己的手机业务，创造能够运作于浏览器Facebook之外的热门作品。其实，公司需要更多留意日益涌现的在线平台，因为玩家能够通过智能手机、平板电脑、PC，甚至是Smart TVs之类的非传统平台访问网络。

Zynga已采取措施，跟进这些新平台，但公司锁定各类平台扩展业务的长期策略会影响公司的未来发展。

6. 公司需留住人才

若说公司需要凭借什么获得成功，那就是富有才华的员工。虽然Zynga目前不乏人才，但公司需要确保自己能够留住这些高层员工。

令Zynga最担心的是，公司上市后，若是进行裁员，那么那些握有公司一定股权的高级职员就会将股票兑现。这些担心不是空穴来风，最近有报道称，若干Zynga职员不满公司某些做法。

当然，今年里公司就已遭遇此问题。就在刚刚过去的几个月里，Zynga就流失许多重要人员，包括前副总裁Lou Castle、执行制作人Daniel Stahl及运营高管Owen Van Natta。IPO后，Zynga就得积极留住高层员工，防止再出现大批人员流失的情况。

7. 竞争日益激烈

随着社交领域的成熟，很多新公司开始纷纷涌入。EA、迪斯尼旗下的Playdom以及Crowdstar和Wooga之类的私有公司逐步在Facebook及其他社交网络占据重要位置，Zynga需确保自己能够在竞争日益激烈及更多新公司纷纷涌入的情况下继续占据主导位置。

今年初，EA凭借《The Sims Social》在社交领域名声大噪（游戏邦注：这款游戏目前是Facebook平台排名第五的热门游戏，其MAU是2800万）。今年9月，这款游戏的DAU短暂超越Zynga的热门作品《FarmVille》，这表明新作品完全有可能超越Zynga最热门的游戏。

随着这些主要竞争对手的持续发展及各自逐步探索出自己在社交平台的细分市场，Zynga需考虑自己要如何维持现有地位，无论是通过推进当前策略，瞄准新用户，还是采取其他截然不同的举措。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

7 Things To Know Before Investing In Zynga

by Tom Curtis

We’ve hit the calm before the storm — Zynga is about to file its highly-anticipated IPO, and Wall Street and the game industry are waiting with bated breath to see how it all pans out.

Just this afternoon, the company announced that it will begin selling its stock at $10 for a total IPO of $1 billion, making this the largest IPO for an online company since Google went public in 2004.

Now that the company’s IPO is upon us, however, Zynga needs to ensure its long-term growth. It might be the leading social game company today, but who knows what could happen down the road? In its most recent SEC filing, Zynga laid out a few of the biggest risks it will face once it becomes a public company.

The following is a look at the top risks Zynga faces today, with a breakdown of how these factors could influence the company’s future:

1. Zynga Might Be Too Reliant On Facebook

Without Facebook, Zynga wouldn’t be the powerhouse developer it is today. It’s where Zynga first took off, and it’s still where the company makes the vast majority of its revenue. In its most recent SEC filing, Zynga noted that it needs to maintain a strong relationship with Facebook if it hopes to sustain its now-gargantuan business.

So long as the relationship between the two companies stays amicable, it’ll be smooth sailing for Zynga, but if Facebook chooses to alter its policies for game distribution or turns its favor to another competing developer, Zynga would have some real trouble on its hands.

In order to prevent this from happening, Zynga has been at work creating a platform of its own, where it would no longer be ties to Facebook’s leash. In October, the company revealed Zynga Direct, a separate platform that, while connected to Facebook, allows players to access Zynga games without going through the popular social network.

Last year, Zynga signed a deal with Facebook, agreeing to use Facebook Credits as the primary means of payment for its games on the platform. As long as Zynga is publishing games on Facebook, it is bound to use its proprietary currency until May 2015.

2. Zynga Relies On A New Business Model In A Rapidly-Changing Industry

When compared to the games industry at large, social games are still in their infancy, and the space has seen tremendous growth over the past few years. Zynga has had great success thus far, but who knows how the social space will evolve following the company’s IPO?

As the space changes over the next few years, Zynga will need to ensure that its virtual goods maintain their value for consumers, especially if audiences begin to expect more for their virtual dollar.

In addition, the company will need to stay on top of the ways in which audiences want to consume their entertainment, keeping abreast of new platforms, devices, business models, and more.

3. A Few Customers And A Few Games Bring In Most Of The Revenue

As successful as Zynga’s free-to-play model has been this far, the company pulls most of its revenue from a tiny sliver of its player base. In all, roughly 3 percent, or 7.7 million of Zynga’s 227 million monthly active users are actually paying money on its games, reports Forbes.

This gives Zynga huge incentive to find ways to retain that valuable, yet minuscule segment of its audience. The trick, however, will be to find ways to retain and incentivize users to play, without scaring off the players committed to playing for free. Last week, Zynga CEO Mark Pincus said that he plans to double the company’s number of paying customers.

In addition, Zynga has made a distinct effort to boost its catalog of games over the past year, yet the company still generates most of its income from just a few of its titles. Analysts have noted that the company has had a “difficult time driving user growth,” with well-established games like CityVille and Empires & Allies seeing declines in user numbers.

4. Is Mark Pincus Zynga’s Lynchpin?

Zynga founder and CEO, Mark Pincus, is one of the major factors behind the company’s success. He has helped establish Zynga’s vision, business strategy, studio culture, and key products, and has played a key role in the company’s astronomical growth.

Google chairman Eric Schmidt recently called Pincus “a fearsome, strong negotiator,” adding that he is “a we’re-going-to-make-this-happen-or-else type of person,” reports Bloomberg. It is Pincus’ drive and knack for business that built Zynga into its current form, and losing him would be a notable blow to the company.

5. Managing Growth Is A Precarious Business

Outside of the social realm, the mobile space is the next clear target for Zynga’s growth. Words With Friends is, of course, extremely popular on mobile devices, but Zynga can’t exactly port over its Facebook games like CityVille and Empires & Allies and call it a day. Rather, the company has instead released some mobile-only games like Dream Zoo and FarmVille Express in hopes of carving out it sow space in the mobile market.

A key challenge for Zynga will be to expand its mobile business and find hit games that work outside of the browser-based Facebook platform. In fact, the company needs to stay even more aware of the increasing number of online-enabled platforms, since players can access the internet through smartphones, tablets, PCs, and even unconventional platforms like Smart TVs.

Zynga has already made steps to stay abreast of these new platform developments, but its long term approach to spreading its business across multiple platforms will really impact its potential for growth.

6. The Company Needs To Maintain Its Talent

If there’s one thing a company needs to succeed, it’s a talented workforce. While Zynga has no lack of talent at its disposal, the company needs to make sure it can retain its top employees.

One key worry is that Zynga’s senior employees, who posses a fair share of the company’s stock, will cash out once the company makes its IPO, stripping Zynga of some of its key developers. These concerns are backed up by some recent and stinging reports indicating that some employees are dissatisfied with the way things are going at the company.

Of course, the company has already seen its fair share of shuffling throughout the year. Even in just the past few months, Zynga has lost key staff members such as former VP Lou Castle, executive producer Daniel Stahl, and chief business officer Owen Van Natta. Following its IPO, Zynga will have to encourage its top staff to stay, and prevent an ongoing exodus.

7. Competition Is Getting Stronger

As the social market has matured, a number of new companies have settled in as substantial players. EA, the Disney-owned Playdom, and even privately owned companies like Crowdstar and Wooga have a substantial presence on Facebook and other networks, and Zynga needs to make sure it can maintain its leadership as the competitions gets increasingly tougher and even more players enter the space.

Earlier this year, EA made a strong footprint in the social market with The Sims Social, which is currently the fifth most popular app on Facebook with 28 million monthly active users, according to AppData. In September, the game briefly overtook Zynga’s popular FarmVille in terms of daily active users, indicating that it’s possible for new titles to overtake even Zynga’s most established products.

As these major competitors continue to grow and carve out their own niches on social platforms, Zynga will have to determine how to maintain its leadership, whether it be through evolving its current strategy, targeting new audiences, or something completely different.（Source：gamasutra）