作者：Rob Weber

2014是手机广告终于更上一层楼的一年。去年Supercell仅靠《Clash of Clans》以及《Hay Day》就实现了超过250万美元的日常收益。正如我去年在《福布斯》的预言一样，手机游戏领域出现了许多关闭及合并工作室的现象。这一行也不乏出色的创新，不少开发者创造出了全新、过硬的游戏体验。

在此我继承了去年的传统，写下了关于手机游戏市场在2014年的预测。在我们切入正题之前，先快速回顾一下我在2013年的预言吧。

回顾2013年的预测

1）更多关闭及合并现象

结果：正确

不幸的是，2013年没有哪家公司是大到不能倒的情况。在这些关闭的工作室中，Fishlabs（《Galaxy on Fire》开发商）被Koch Media收购，THQ（从技术上讲2012年已破产）则清偿了自己的资产。从合并交易来看，Supercell将51%的股份出售给软银和Gungho Online Entertainment，孩之宝收购了Backflip Studios。

2）手机游戏，续作：更多续作和授权游戏

结果：不正确

虽然我曾经认为2013年会出现这种情况，但事实并非如此。发布于2013年的续作游戏没有一款是极为成功的。我们看到游戏公司专注于为现成的游戏推出新内容的不同趋势。

3）移动沙尘暴：农场游戏更少，硬核及博彩游戏更多

结果：正确

在2014年，我们将放下手中的干草叉，开始轰炸僵尸。Machine Zone的成功之作《Game of War》发布于2013年7月，被称为“iOS平台第六大高收益游戏”。当时有无数其他硬核游戏接踵而至，苹果App Store前25名收益榜单中，有5款是博彩游戏。

4）真正多人游戏的崛起

结果：正确

这一点令我兴历，多人游戏终于在移动平台兴起了！这并不只是战略或角色扮演游戏，其中还有休闲游戏。我们看到《QuizUp》以及《Leterpress》等支持玩家与好友实时对决的休闲多人游戏获得了巨大的成功。

5）Windows 8寻找玩家

结果：正确

由于美国之外的市场增长强劝戒，Windows Phone成为主流手机游戏开发者眼中的新宠。例如，《Temple Run 2》就赶在假期时登陆了Windows Phone平台。

6）平板电脑将灭掉主机设备

结果：不正确

PlayStation 4和Xbox One的最初销售数据来势汹汹。本个假期季平板电脑销量首次超越PC设备，所以在2014年要继续关注这一趋势，因为苹果在WWDC很可能会公布其客厅产品。

2014年预测

1）小型开发商将严重依赖发行商

这个市场的竞争性与日俱增，令开发者越来越难以自主发布手机游戏。独立开发者将持续需要更大的营销预算，以及通过发行商之手实现最简便的游戏发布。

2）订阅式计费将更为普遍

我们已经看到Kabam和Glu在Google Play出售应用内置计阅服务，从而稳定虚拟货币销量的成功案例了。根据Google Play早期数据来看，我们有望在2014年看到更多游戏开发者在苹果App Store提供应用内置订阅服务。

3）电视连网将成为趋势

苹果无疑将隆重推出一种可将游戏与客厅电视连接在一起的产品。虽然我们还无法预测苹果将如何实现这一点，但从他们收购Primesense这家帮助微软研发Xbox Kinect技术的公司这一举动中就可以看出端倪。

apple-itv(from gamasutra)

4）游戏将成为新颖的广告形式

像世嘉这种大型发行商都在自己转为免费模式的游戏中测试新的本地广告格式。在2014年，小型独立开发者将紧随其后，创新移动广告格式。

5）主机和手机游戏之间的界线将趋于模糊

在2014年将有越来越多主机游戏采用基于免费的商业模式。这将开创一个主机游戏开发商向移动平台推出具有主机体验这种游戏的新趋势。

6）微主机将绝迹

2013年出现了关于微主机的许多炒作，但在几次尝试之后却没有研发出色的微主机，这一趋势将在2014年完全消声匿迹。

ouya-micro-consol(from gamasutra)

7）将有另外两家游戏发行商日常收益超过100万美元

在2014年，iOS平台高收益游戏榜单上的收益差距将进一步扩大。美国游戏市场规模足够支持另外两家日常收益超过100万美元的公司，其中一者有可能是Zynga，所以现在赶紧买他们的股票吧。另一家日进100万美元的开发商将是目前仍然默默无闻的小型独立开发商。

8）赫尔辛基现在成了新硅谷，但是成都才是2014年的主角

chengdu-china(from gamasutra)

赫尔辛基在2013年一直是备受关注的焦点，但成都才是2014年的新兴力量。中国成都有更多开发人才，看好2014年该地区的游戏开发者推出的热门游戏。

9）游戏开发者利用可穿戴设备的时机尚未成熟

2014年可穿戴设备不会产生太多游戏收益，所以不要浪费时间为其开发内容。谷歌眼镜和Pebble或三星Galaxy Gear等智能手表很有趣，但它们还处于试验阶段。认真的开发者应该关注能够让自己的公司在2014年有所收获的项目，而非最新科技趋势。比尔盖茨曾说过，“人们经常高估了未来两年会发生的事情，而低估了未来10年发生的事情。”虽然Glu面向谷歌眼镜开发了一款游戏，但我并不认为这种设备在未来3-5年内会产生足够为开发者创造可观收益的用户数量。可穿戴设备终会发光，但不会是在2014年。

google-glass-and-wearables(from gamasutra)

10）不会出现重要的IPO

虽然有传闻称有些游戏开发商会上市，但没有一者会在2014年实现。我预言2014年没有一家游戏开发商会上市，因为那些在2012或2013年提交申请的公司情况都不是太妙。Supercell团队做了一个明智的决策，将51%的股份出售给软银和Gungho Online。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

2014 Predictions for the Mobile Gaming Market

by Rob Weber

The following blog post, unless otherwise noted, was written by a member of Gamasutra’s community.

The thoughts and opinions expressed are those of the writer and not Gamasutra or its parent company.

2014 is the year mobile advertising finally gets better. Last year Supercell raked in over $2.5 million a day between Clash of Clans and Hay Day but they were far ahead of the pack. As I predicted last year in Forbes, there were many closures and consolidations in the mobile gaming space. There was also great innovation, with developers giving us great new, hardcore gaming experiences to enjoy on our devices.

Carrying on the tradition from last year, I wrote a few predictions for the mobile gaming market in 2014. Before we dive in, let’s do a quick recap of my 2013 predictions.
Recap of 2013 Predictions

1) More Closures and Consolidations

The Result: Correct.

Unfortunately, nobody was too big to fail in 2013. Among the closures, Fishlabs, the developer of Galaxy on Fire was acquired by Koch Media and THQ (who technically filed bankruptcy in 2012) liquidated its assets. On the consolidation side, Supercell sold a 51% stake to Softbank and Gungho OnLine Entertainment and Hasbro acquired Backflip Studios.

2) Mobile Gaming, The Sequel: More Sequels and Licensed Games

The Result: Incorrect.

Although I could argue for it, this didn’t really happen. Sequel games were launched in 2013, but none were very successful. Instead we saw a different trend with gaming companies focusing on pumping out new content for their existing games.

3) The Mobile Dustbowl: Less Farming Games, More Hardcore and Gambling Games

The Result: Correct.

In 2014, we put down our pitchforks and started blasting zombies. Machine Zone’s successful title, Game of War launched in July and is being called “the 6th most lucrative game on iOS.” Countless other hardcore games are close behind and at the moment, five of the top twentyfive grossing apps on the App Store are casino games.

4) The Rise of True Multiplayer Games

The Result: Correct.

This one excites me, multiplayer is finally taking off on mobile! It’s not just strategy or role-playing  games either, but casual games too. We’re seeing breakout successes from casual games like QuizUp and Leterpress that allow you to compete against your friends in real-time.

5) Windows 8 Woos Gamers

The Result: Correct.

With strong market share growth outside of the U.S., Windows Phone has risen in the eyes of leading mobile game developers. For example, just in time for the holidays, Temple Run 2 launched on Windows Phone.

6) Tablets Kill Consoles

The Result: Incorrect.

The initial sales figures coming in for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have been strong. With that said, tablets outsold PCs for the first time this holiday season so keep an eye on this trend in 2014 as Apple will likely announce their play for the living room at WWDC.
2014 Predictions

1) Small Developers Will Rely Heavily on Publishers

The market is getting competitive and it’s getting harder and harder to self publish mobile games. Indie developers are going to continue to need bigger marketing budgets to compete and the easiest way to get it is through a publisher.

2) Subscription Billing Will Become More Pervasive.

We’re already seeing Kabam and Glu successfully sell in-app subscriptions on Google Play to stabilize the sale of virtual currency. Based on early figures on Google Play, look for more game developers to offer in-app subscriptions on the Apple App Store in 2014.

3) Your TV Will Be Connected

Apple will inevitably come out with something that connects games to your living room television in a big way. While it’s impossible to predict exactly how Apple will do this, their acquisition of Primesense, the company who helped Microsoft develop Xbox Kinect was a clear signal of what’s to come.

apple itv

4) Games Will Serve Fresh Ad Formats

Large publishers like SEGA are testing new native ad formats in their flagship games as they take them free-to-play. In 2014, smaller indie developers will follow close behind, pushing the boundaries of what’s possible for mobile advertising.

5) The Lines Between Console and Mobile Gaming Will Blur

More and more console games are going to include the freemium-based business model in 2014. This will kick off a new trend in which console game developers will also launch games for mobile that aid the console experience.

6) Micro-Consoles Will Become Extinct

It was fun to watch projects like Ouya from start to finish on Kickstarter. There was a lot of hype in 2013 but after a few failed attempts to build great micro-consoles, this trend will completely fizzle out and die in 2014.

ouya micro console

7) Two More Game Publishers Will Rake in More Than $1 Million a Day

In 2014, the gap will widen between the top grossing games on iOS. The US gaming market is big enough to support two more companies that make over $1 million a day and after a rough 2013, one of them is going to be Zynga so buy stock now. The second developer to rake in over $1 million a day in 2014 will be a smaller indie developer that isn’t currently on the radar.

8) Helsinki is the New Silicon Valley, But…

While Helsinki had a hell of a year, Chengdu is up next in 2014. There are more developer geniuses in Chengdu, China than in SOMA. Get ready for a few top games to surface from the game developers in Chengdu, China in 2014.

chengdu china game developers

9) Wait on Wearables, They Aren’t Ready for Game Developers

There won’t be any meaningful game revenue generated from wearables in 2014, so don’t waste your time developing for them, yet. Google Glass and smart watches like the Pebble or Samsung’s Galaxy Gear are neat but they’re too experimental. Serious developers should focus on what’s going to keep their businesses afloat in 2014, not the latest tech trends. Bill Gates once said, “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” Although Glu developed a game for Google Glass, I don’t see enough user adoption to provide game developers with meaningful revenue for another 3-5 years. Wearables will have their moment but it won’t come this year.

google glass and wearables

10) There Won’t Be Any Major IPOs

While rumors are flying all over the place about certain game developers going public, none of them will do it in 2014. I’m predicting zero large game developers will go public in 2014 because it didn’t work out well for any of the companies that filed in 2012 or 2013. The team at Supercell made the smart choice, selling a 51% stake to SoftBank and Gungho Online.（source：gamasutra）