随着Facebook用户增至7亿，Facebook应用的淘金时期显然已经终止。

社交游戏领域的早期开拓者（游戏邦注：如Zynga、Crowdstar 和Playdom，它们均为Facebook排名前10的开发商）敛集了平台大量的用户和营收，但增长的广告费用、嘈杂的游戏市场以及日益见涨的交易费用迫使小型开发商转向别的领域，甚至完全跳脱Facebook平台。

Appssavvy

有些身处Facebook应用领域的人士甚至认为Facebook是服务新兴公司及其产品的封闭系统。Appssavvy首席执行官Chris Cunningham表示，“在很大程度上，Facebook游戏的机会窗口已经关闭。新踏入Facebook平台的公司有3年时间建立自己在这片市场的地位，但Facebook自2007年开放平台后，公司每年逐步强化的限制和要求改变了Facebook应用市场的局面。”

Cunningham表示开发商可以选择进军这片拥挤的领域，但他们同时也应该瞄准其他的平台，那里依旧存有供他们推出热门游戏的机会。

由于Facebook推出越来越严格的开发商指南，各大公司开始选择其他提供热情服务的平台。Spil Games（游戏邦注：其为欧洲最大的社交游戏平台之一）同20家开发商建立了合作关系（Facebook的合作开发商多达上百家），但平台仅开放自己的API，所以开发商无法针对该平台开发应用。

Spil营销总监Oscar Diele 1个月内就掳获玩家5000万，他表示，“据我们了解，开发商如今很难赢得用户青睐。提高游戏曝光度变得越来越困难，用户群发展局势也不容乐观。”

Facebook竞争者Diele表示，他们发现另一趋势——开发商开始跳过Facebook，瞄准其他服务社交游戏的平台。另一主要游戏门户公司Bigpoint（该平台拥有2亿用户）最近向所有游戏制作人开放API，希望吸引其他潜在Facebook开发商。

另一备受瞩目的Facebook生态系统变化就是：从今年7月开始，所有游戏都要转用Facebook credits货币，将30%的交易营收分给Facebook。分析人士表示三七分成是游戏市场的正常标准，但未来开发商的份额有望有所提高，有些开发商已经开始想尽办法弥补其中损失。

AltEgo首席执行官Seth Gerson表示，“办法之一就是提高道具价位，从而达到公司期望的净利润营收。他还补充表示，他希望公司作为Facebook新手能够从平台探索更多增加营收的渠道。他认为，“在Facebook平台尝试新途径很容易，因为各类数据触手可及。”

Gerson推出的游戏《Hollywood Magic》最近刚刚采用了Facebook credits货币，但他表示，现在公布任何有关游戏的有价值数据为时尚早。AltEgo也针对多个非Facebook平台发行游戏，如hi5和苹果App Store。Gerson表示，“开发商在Facebook的营收取决于其在用户获取方面的投资。而其中的Facebook营销开支是真正关键所在。”

Hollywood Magic

有关人们对于Facebook开发商成本提高的种种质疑，Facebook则将Digital Chocolate作为成功典范举例说明。据Digital Chocolate首席运营官Jason Loia表示，公司已使用Facebook credits 1年。Loia表示，“从本质上说，开发商应该将Facebook分成视为平台费用，确保采取相应措施优化自身经济模式。”

回到Facebook平台刚开放时期，Facebook无意间通过平台固有的病毒式传播功能（如玩家自动发帖更新游戏动态，供好友浏览）推广了某些早期游戏（游戏邦注：如Zynga的《黑手党战争》和《Farmville》）。这促使早期游戏开发商的用户增长势头迅猛，如今Zynga每月用户已高达5000万。但随后入驻Facebook平台的公司就没有这么幸运了。

Portalarium创始人和开发主管Dallas Snell表示，“2010年4月公司开始面临难题。我们发行《Port Casino Poker》的那个月恰逢Facebook关闭众多病毒式传播渠道。”Snell表示，他知道Facebook是希望借此减少游戏信息在用户页面的出现频率，但他认为通过采用免费模式换取适当宣传并不算过分要求。Facebook这一调整使得Portalarium不得不加大游戏广告宣传支出。

Port Casino Poker

Snell表示，“这个举措对我们这些初创公司伤害特别大。我们没有购买Facebook用户的预算。但如今，我们不得不腾出这笔费用，我们的游戏开发成本也就相应提高了。”

Snell表示，去年广告计费方式是15-20美分/点击，但现在却增长到了2美元/点击，而且取得成效不大。游戏发行前6个月，Portalarium斥资5万美元用于Facebook营销。据BAI/Kelsey本周预测显示，社交媒体的营收未来有望翻4倍，从2010年的21亿美元增加到2015年的83亿美元，而其中1/3归Facebook。

这些收入的主要来源于展示广告，也就是Snell所购买的广告。据分析人士表示——Snell自己也这么认为——Facebook展示广告的点击率非常低。Snell表示，“我上周购买了一处广告摊位，但一个点击率也没有。”

那么公司接下来该怎么办呢？Snell表示，“我们不得不筹集更多资金，加大用户获取投资。”他还补充表示，这些资金很大一部分将用于把游戏推广至Facebook以外的平台。他已和hi5网站签署协议，并推出iOS游戏《Port Casino》，同时还计划将新筹集资金用于开发iPhone和Android游戏。

Snell和Gerson均认为手机市场是他们这类小型开发商的下个目标。事实的确如此，据IHS Screen Digest调查预测，主流手机应用商店2011年总营收将增长77.7%，达38亿美元，其中苹果App Store有望抢占3/4的营收份额。此外，据估计手机应用和游戏的下载营收未来几年有望持续增长，从而发展到2014年的83亿美元。

然而对开发商来说，新市场的复杂性丝毫不亚于Facebook平台。Snell表示，“我们必须寻求新突破，因为Facebook平台对我们来说成本太高，但转投其他平台绝非易事。我的意思是说，我们该如何在iPad平台推广游戏——我们要如何同大公司竞争？其他开发商会怎么做？我们是否应该在其他平台购买广告位置？是否需要通过iAds宣传游戏？”

尽管Snell对于Facebook存在种种顾虑，但他（游戏邦注：其花费1美元左右获取Facebool用户）表示，公司广告投资似乎开始有所见效。“我们没有准确的价值预测，但就目前来看，我们从每位用户身上所获得的回报将不止1美元。”

这就是Facebook的吸引力所在，仅凭体验用户数量，公司就能确保至少获得相应投资回报，即便不是极其可观的营收数目。Facebook庞大的用户群对开发商来说是个经久不衰的闪光点，平台各个公司从未停止过发行游戏的步伐，毫不理会该游戏市场的拥堵现状。30%的交易分成并未让开发商们放弃Facebook，因为这里的用户规模实在太过庞大。路过用户的消费金额远超越开发商们的开发成本。

bingo blitz

《Bingo Blitz》（游戏邦注：其排名前200强游戏）开发者 John Cibulski表示，“我们并不在意其中分成，因为我们相信Facebook能够带给我们更多。我们的游戏目前运作良好，所以我们无需担心。如果玩家在其他游戏中拥有Facebook credits货币，那么当他们偶然体验《Bingo Blitz》时，就可以使用这些货币进行消费。”（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Rising Costs Leave Facebook Developers in the Lurch

Small Developers Move to Other Markets As Ad Prices and Revenue Splits Make Environment Tougher

As Facebook heads toward 700 million users, one thing seems clear: the gold rush for Facebook app developers is over.

Early adopters of the social-game space, such as Zynga, Crowdstar and Playdom — known in the industry as part of Facebook’s “Top 10″ — are still raking in all the users and much of the revenue, but rising ad prices, a cluttered market, and higher transaction fees are forcing smaller players elsewhere, and in many cases off Facebook altogether.

Some in the Facebook app industry go so far as to declare Facebook a closed system for new companies and their products. “For the most part, the window of opportunity for games on Facebook has closed,” said Chris Cunningham, CEO of Appssavvy, a firm that pairs marketers with app developers and one that has worked extensively with Facebook. “There was a three-year window for companies entering Facebook, but since Facebook opened their platform in 2007, each year has brought stricter restrictions and requirements that have changed the Facebook app marketplace forever.”

Mr. Cunningham said that developers can still enter the fray, but they should also look into other platforms where the opportunity to create a new hit game still exists.

As Facebook enforces stricter and stricter guidelines for developers, some companies are welcoming developers to come and build. Spil Games, one of the largest gaming platforms in Europe, works with 20 developers — compared with Facebook’s hundreds — but has just opened its own API, so developers can build on the network.

“What we hear is that developers are having a hard time finding the audience on Facebook,” said Spil CMO Oscar Diele, who sees 50 million gamers a month. “It’s getting more and more difficult to get visibility and grow an audience.”

Mr. Diele, who is a competitor to the social-media giant, said he’s seeing another trend — developers skipping Facebook altogether in favor of platforms that are specific to social games. Another huge gaming portal, Bigpoint, with 200 million users, also recently opened its API for producers in hopes of luring developers that might otherwise focus on Facebook.

One of the most-discussed changes in the Facebook ecosystem is the July deadline for all games to transition from using their own currency to Facebook credits, giving up 30% of each transaction to the social network. Analysts say that the 30/70 split is normal for the market, but it will be an increase for many developers and some are scrambling to recoup the loss.

“One possibility is to raise the price of your items to achieve the net you’re looking for,” said AltEgo CEO Seth Gerson, adding that he expects his company, a relative newcomer to Facebook, to experiment with many ways of increasing revenue on Facebook. “It’s easy to try different methodologies on Facebook because it’s so easy to collect data.”

Mr. Gerson’s game, Hollywood Magic, has recently implemented Facebook credits, but he said it’s too early to release any meaningful data based on the game. AltEgo has games across several non-Facebook platforms, such as hi5 and Apple’s App Store. “The profitability on Facebook depends on how much you’re willing to allocate to customer acquisition,” Mr. Gerson said. “The real key is how much your marketing costs on Facebook.”

When queried on the rising costs for developers, Facebook provided a case study from a successful developer, Digital Chocolate, whose COO Jason Loia said his company has been using Facebook credits for a year. “In essence, you have to treat it like a platform fee as with any other platform and ensure you have optimized your economics accordingly,” Mr. Loia said.

Back when Facebook first opened its platform, Facebook inadvertently marketed early games like Zynga’s Mafia Wars and Farmville with baked-in viral features, such as auto-posts on the wall updates of the user who was playing the game, and updates to the news feed, which were seen by the user’s friends. Those early developers couldn’t stop the growth of their user base if they wanted to, and now Zynga is up to 50 million gamers a month. Newer entrants to the Facebook market haven’t been as lucky.

“Our problems started in April 2010,” said Dallas Snell, co-founder and head of development at Portalarium. “We launched our Port Casino Poker that month and the same month they turned off many of the viral channels.” Mr. Snell said he understands that Facebook aimed to eliminate game spam on user walls, but he believes a bit of promotion in exchange for the a free game is not too much to ask. Because of the changes, Portalarium found itself spending more on ads to promote its game.

“It especially hurt those of us in startup phase,” Mr. Snell said. “We didn’t budget the kind of money that you needed to buy customers on Facebook. Since then, we have been trying to budget that out and the price keeps going up.”

Last year, Mr. Snell said he could buy an ad for 15 cents to 20 cents a click, but now, those same ads are costing as much as $2 a click — and not getting much action. In the first six months of his game release, Mr. Snell said Portalarium spent around $50,000 on Facebook advertising. According to a BAI/Kelsey forecast out this week, social-media advertising revenues may quadruple from $2.1 billion in 2010 to $8.3 billion in 2015, and about one third of that amount belongs to Facebook.

Most of that cash comes from the kind of ads that Mr. Snell buys: display ads. And according to some analysts — as well as Mr. Snell — the click-through rate for display ads on Facebook can be very low. “I ran an ad all last week,” Mr. Snell said. “I didn’t get a single click.”

So what is his next move? “We’ve had to raise more money to allocate a lot more to customer acquisition than we originally planned for,” Mr. Snell said, adding that much of the funding is also going to spreading his game outside of Facebook. He’s signed on to the hi5 network and has built Port Casino for the iPad, spending some of his newly raised cash on creating apps for the iPhone and Android.

Mr. Snell and Mr. Gerson agree that the mobile market is a great next step for companies like theirs. Indeed, IHS Screen Digest research expects combined revenues from major mobile application stores to leap 77.7% in 2011 to $3.8 billion, with the Apple App Store projected to eat up three-quarters share of the total market. Total download revenue from games and other applications are projected to continue rising in the next few years, jumping to $8.3 billion in 2014.

But of course, the new markets can be just as confounding to developers as Facebook has become. “We have to spread out because it costs so much on Facebook, but it doesn’t mean it’s easy on the other platforms,” Mr. Snell said. “I mean, how do we promote the games on iPad — how do we compete against the big boys? What’s a developer to do? Do we buy ad space somewhere? Advertise in iAds?”

Despite his Facebook concerns, Mr. Snell — who spends about $1 to get a paying customer on Facebook — said it appears that he is recouping his costs on the network. “We don’t have accurate value projections but the trend so far looks like we are going to earn more than $1 per customer.”

And that’s truly the main draw of Facebook — the sheer number of people who pass through it often guarantees at least a return on your investment, if not a large profit margin. That huge mass of gamers is a constant enticement for developers, who keep launching games despite the fact that the space is more crowded than ever. Even the 30% transaction fee hasn’t driven most away, because when your audience is so big, an accidental customer walking into a store can mean more money in the bottom line.

“We’re not so worried about the cut because we believe in the volume that Facebook brings,” said John Cibulski, creator of top-200 game Bingo Blitz. “Our game is doing well enough so we don’t have to worry. We know if someone has Facebook credits for another game and they stumble into Bingo Blitz, then they can use those credits for our game.” （Source：adage.com）