作者：Mihir Shah

我们正处于另一个手机革命的前夜。这场革命将大大提升消费者的真实世界的体验。Mobile 3.0时代正在来临，下一波手机游戏将改变人与人、地点和物品之间的互动方式。

我认为手机革命分为三个阶段——第一阶段是手机作为干扰因素，第二阶段是手机产生社会效能，第三阶段是手机提供情感联系。我们现在正处于第三阶段的初期，也就是从手机产生社会效能向手机提供情感联系的过渡期。与前一个过渡期一样，下一个阶段是由先进的手机设备的技术和连通性驱动的。

nfc-tags(from fourthsource.com)

人干扰因素到社会效能

第一部iPhone的发布让我们第一次见识到破坏式技术的威力。在这个阶段，手机很大程度上是起干扰作用的。我们的手机越来越不像单纯的通信工具，而是成为世界上发展最迅速的游戏平台。从应有数量、收益和消费者使用率来看，游戏很快成为应用商店中的首要应用类别。Wargaming的CEO Victor Kislyi在DICE Europe大会上总结得好：“作为游戏人，我们是有创新思维的，但我们必须真正理解我们正在从事什么商业……让我们对自己坦白吧，游戏是一个浪费生命时间的行业。”

几年后，4G LTE和WiFi的全球普及驱动了第二阶段的来临。几乎是一夜之间，全世界的手机用户都能通过手机上网了。2012年6月，一个针对智能手机的成年人用户的调查发现。63%的女性和73%的男性每小时至少查看一次手机。

这么坚实的用户基础必然促进手机产生社会效能。消费者可以轻易地用手机登录Facebook、浏览Yelp和Instagram。基于地点的功能和服务开始体现价值，环境社交应用如Highlight和Tinder开始提供新类型的社交功能。各种媒体的消费和创造——照片、视频、信息，成为我们使用智能手机的主要作业对象。根据Pew研究，在2012年，18到24岁的用户每天平均交换109.5个短信。

但这些活动虽然是功能性的，且提供社交效能，但与我们的现实生活体验缺少基础性的联系。在这个阶段，智能手机上的绝大部分互动活动是帮助我们处理日常活动，使我们的效率更高一些，麻烦更少一些。

手机的黄金时代就在前方。我们几乎总是手机不离身，手机成为我们本体的延伸。下一波消费者应用将不只是作为干扰因素或提供简单的功能。

在Mobile 3.0时代，人们将最大化手机的用途。Trendwatching.com说得好：“这一切都说明，在接下来的12个月里，我们将看到手机革命爆发：产品、服务和体验将大大丰富人们的生活。”想一想多屏幕的交互体验，其中一个屏幕正是我们所容身的现实世界。

有些应用已经提前进入这个第三阶段。我认为社交地图应用《Waze》就是一个好例子，它给我们海量即时信息，方便了我们的出行。如果你曾经使用《Waze》成功地避开交通高峰期，那么你就知道它的方便之处了。我认为视频聊天应用《FaceTime》和地图应用《Map My Run》也是先行者。

下一代

但这些应用只不过是冰山一角。下一代移动设备和连接性（iPhone 5s引领的）将以前所未有的速度驱动手机应用和平台产生最大的价值。是的，我认为iPhone 5s预示了我们行业进入新阶段。

虽然很多人都在讨论和研究iPhone 5s的定量性能规格，但最有意义的一点是，这些渐进式改良现在首先能做什么？

想像一下，如果你的手机总是能感应到你的当前体验。iPhone 5s中的M7动态联合处理器允许感应器总是开启，所以即使你把手机放在口袋里，它能也感应到你的活动。新摄像机提供了更快的帧率，对性能占用更少，这意味着手机显示的视觉效果将媲美电脑。新的惯性测量装置使手机能更好的感应移动情况。当这些新的能力被有效地组合起来时，无论是在智能手机中还是在其他便携设备中，我们的个人设备都能不仅理解我们在哪里（即使是在不可使用GPS的环境下），还有我们在看什么。

毫不意外，手机应用（和消费者）仍然在追求更高的感应器和设备平台的性能。但这些新性能会很快导致新一波满足我们的情感联系的根本需要的手机应用的诞生；这种情感联系将在我们的现实生活和数字生活之间建立桥梁。

如果人们可以把数字涂鸦和个人信息留在建筑和产品上，那会怎么样呢？那会如何改变我们的日常生活以及我们与人、地点和物品的互动呢？

如果我们的移动设备可以引导我们找到我们喜欢的产品、服务或朋友所在的商场和其他不允许GPS的地点呢？

这些改变即将来临，将使全球的消费者欢喜。2012年夏天，Robert Scoble在Qualcomm发布开发者SDK《Gimbal》时，第一次提出Mobile 3.0的概念。从形式上说，确实如此。Mobile 3.0的定义将取决于把我们的现实世界和数字世界联通起来的的新一波手机应用。

手机革命的列车即将出发，请坐好了！（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

The best days of mobile are ahead: less distraction, more quality of life

by Mihir Shah

We’re on the edge of another mobile revolution that will be defined by elevating consumers’ real world experiences and delighting them with emotional relevance. Mobile 3.0 is here, and the next wave of game-changing consumer apps are not only going to see huge adoption. They’re going to change the way we interact with the people, places and things around us.

I think of the evolution of mobile in three stages of consumer adoption – the first being distraction, the second social utility, and the third emotional connection. I believe we are now on the cusp of the third stage, and this coming transition from social utility to emotional connection will have an enormous impact on engagement behavior and overall value creation. Similar to the prior transition, this next phase is being driven by the enabling technologies bundled into our mobile devices and the connectivity advancements that infrastructure players provide.

Mobile distraction and social utility

Shortly after the release of the first iPhone, we entered one of the most disruptive phases tech has ever seen; and it was driven by distraction. Our phones became more than communication devices, they also became the world’s fastest-growing gaming platform. Games quickly became the leading mobile application category in the app stores as measured by app volume, revenue, and consumer engagement. Victor Kislyi, CEO of Wargaming, summed it up best in his keynote at DICE Europe – “As an industry, we are creative and innovative, but we have to actually understand what kind of business we are in…Let’s be true to ourselves, we are all in the time-killing business.”

Fast-forward a couple of years and the next phase was driven by broad access to 4G LTE and the global proliferation of WiFi. Almost overnight, consumers around the world had more ubiquitous connectivity that made mobile access and streaming tolerable via their phones. A Harris Interactive survey of adult smartphone owners from June of 2012 found that 63 percent of women and 73 percent of men checked their phones at least once every hour.

This infrastructure foundation supported the rise of social utility. Consumers could easily interact with Facebook from their phones. Yelp and Instagram took off on mobile. Location-based features and services began to add real value, and ambient social applications like Highlight and Tinder began to offer new types of social utility. The consumption and creation of all forms of media – photos, videos, social, messaging – collectively became our primary activity on smartphones. On average, a staggering 109.5 messages per day were exchanged between 18 and 24 year olds in 2012 according to Pew Research.

But much of this activity, while functional and providing social utility, lacked a fundamental connection with our present real-world experience. During this phase, the vast majority of smartphone interactions were about taking us away from what we were currently engaged in. A means to make our days go by a little bit faster or better.

The best days of mobile are in front of us. Our smartphones are always with us, almost always on, and I’ve argued the most personal extension of ourselves. This next wave of consumer apps will elevate our current experience more than distract or provide simple utility.

People will use their mobile devices to maximize almost every moment in Mobile 3.0. Trendwatching.com says it best. “All of which means the next 12 months will see an explosion in mobile moments: products, services and experiences that will enable mobile-loving consumers to embrace lifestyle multi-if-not-hyper-tasking.” Think of it as multi-screen interaction where one of the screens is the real world around us.

We’ve already seen early entrants into this next phase. I think Waze is a great example, as it gives us real-time and crowd-sourced information to elevate our commute. And if you’ve ever successfully used Waze to improve your morning rush hour, you know it’s delightful. I would also put FaceTime and Map My Run in this category as early and groundbreaking examples.

The next generation

But these apps represent just the tip of the iceberg. The next generation of mobile devices and connectivity (led by the iPhone 5s) are going to drive the fastest and largest value creation ever in mobile apps and platforms. Yes, I think the iPhone 5S signals the next phase of disruption in our industry.

While the quantitative performance specs of the iPhone 5s have been widely discussed, blogged about, and compared against the competition, the more interesting point is what these incremental improvements now enable for the first time.

Imagine if your mobile device was always aware of your current experience. The M7 motion co-processor in the 5s allows the sensors to be always on, so that the phone can be aware of your actions even when it’s in your pocket. The new camera offers faster frame rate and low-light performance, which enables a powerful new set of computer vision capabilities. The new inertial measurement unit offers meaningful improvements to understanding the device’s movement. When these new capabilities are intelligently combined – whether on smartphones or soon on wearables – our personal devices will gain an ability to understand not only where we are (including in GPS-denied environments) but also what we’re looking at.

Not surprisingly, mobile applications (and consumers) are still catching up to sensor and device platform capabilities. But these new capabilities will quickly usher in the next wave of mobile consumer apps that will tap into our most fundamental need for emotional connection; a form of connection that brings relevance between our physical and digital lives.

What if people could leave digital graffiti and personal messages on buildings and products and how would that elevate our daily lives and change how we interact with people, places and things?

What if our mobile device could direct us to products and services we’d love, or to places that our friends are talking about inside shopping malls and other GPS-denied areas?

What if shared media was surfaced when relevant and contextual and not through a fire hose? Would that create more persistence and engagement?

These game-changing experiences are imminent and will delight global consumers. Robert Scoble was one of the first to coin Mobile 3.0 coincidental with the release of Qualcomm’s Gimbal in the summer of 2012. And true to form, Robert was early to the punch. Mobile 3.0 is now and will be defined by this next wave of mobile consumer applications that connect the physical and digital worlds for all of us.

Fasten your seatbelts. This is going to be fun.（source:venturebeat)