作者：James Brightman

社交游戏刚问世几年，便呈狂轰滥炸之势，Zynga等公司的估值就数以亿计，而EA之类的传统发行商需奋力进行角逐。但和其他新行业一样，变化持续出现，游戏和用户也不断发展。在EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich看来，我们所见证的是“第一代”社交游戏，如今游戏逐步过渡至第二代内容。

farmville from insidesocialgames.com

Divnich在IndustryGamers这样评论：

“过去3年来，基于时间管理的游戏类型（游戏邦注：例如《CityVille》、《Sims Social》和《冒险任务》）是社交游戏的主要推动力量。但行业逐步呈现一个有趣趋势：社交游戏比过去几年更快步入巅峰时期。在我看来，由于曝光技术的发展，及社交游戏如今开始开展大众营销活动（《Sims Social》是首款推出电视媒体活动的游戏），社交游戏活动日益风靡，如同HD掌机游戏一般。同时加上竞争的激化，用户在基于时间管理游戏中的娱乐体验更快获得满足。

“我的意思是说是过去3年的社交游戏应归类为‘第一代’内容。”

“深入挖掘数据，我们发现基于时间管理的游戏似乎开始达到巅峰。和娱乐业其他类型一样，这些内容存在功能局限，当到达局限，用户倾向更快获得娱乐满足感。一个典型的例子就是《吉他英雄》系列，虽然这在当时是一大创新，但游戏最终也达到功能上限，当《吉他英雄V》问世时，游戏已没有足够创新元素吸引用户兴趣。”

“此外，我们开始在社交游戏领域见证更多崩溃现象。2年前业内最多只有10款高质量基于时间管理的游戏。2011年，它们开始无处不在。竞争白热化，加上用户休闲时间有限，最终导致行业出现稀释，其活动总数依然保持不变，但每款单个游戏则更快成熟，因为用户以更快速度转向最新游戏。”

“我觉得第一人称射击游戏就很好说明游戏类型如何成熟，所引入的新技术如何再创游戏吸引之处。在PlayStation 2时代，射击类游戏最终在周期末尾达到极限。所有能够促使射击游戏创造愉快体验的功能都已植入游戏之中，这最终导致这类游戏的销量停滞不前。随后就出现Xbox 360和PlayStation 3，二者引入强大在线服务网络，令射击游戏能够充分利用在线多玩家，通过利用此项新技术，《使命召唤》和《战地》系列的游戏内容得以获得彻底改造。举个例子，《使命召唤 4：现代战争》销量通过之前的更新内容翻了一番，我觉得多数人都会认同，全新在线多人功能（游戏邦注：PlayStation 2没有此功能）是其成功的关键驱动因素（射击游戏最终得以步入现代社会）。”

“新技术带来创新，虽然Facebook和谷歌无疑都开始扩充其社交内容，但我觉得当前基于时间管理的游戏类型需突破传统的‘点击界面’机制才能够留住用户兴趣。”

“我并不是说社交游戏开始老化，而是指过去3年推动社交游戏的标准功能已开始过时。这是给众多追求成功的小型独立开发商的一个警示。”

“我的意思是说我们过去3年所看到的社交游戏应该归类为‘第一代’内容。我觉得在Zynga推出其全新3D黑手党游戏的时候，行业就出现变革，这推动社交游戏步入第二代阶段。”（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Social Gaming About to Go Next-Gen, says Analyst

by James Brightman

Social gaming, in the space of just a few years, has exploded, to the point where companies like Zynga have valuations in the billions of dollars and traditional publishers like Electronic Arts are doing their best to compete. Like any new sector, however, changes are continually being made and the games and audience are both evolving. In essence, what we’ve all witnessed is the “first generation” of social gaming, and now we’re on the cusp of the next generation, according to EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich.

Divnich commented to IndustryGamers:

“The time-based management genre (CityVille, Sims Social, Adventure Quest, etc.) has been the primary driver of social games over the last three years. However, one interesting trend we are beginning to see is that social games are beginning to hit their peaks much sooner than in previous years. I believe that due to an increase in discovery technology, in conjunction with social games now having mass-marketing campaigns (Sims Social was one of the first titles to launch a major television media campaign), we are beginning to see social gaming activity frontloaded, much like we see with HD console games. When combined with the increase in competition we are beginning to witness consumers getting their ‘entertainment’ fill much quicker on time-based management games.

“What I am suggesting is that what we’ve seen over the last 3 years should be classified as the ‘first generation’ of social games.”

“As we look deeper into the data, it seems as if time-based management games are beginning to mature in popularity. Much like any genre in any entertainment sector, there are feature limitations and as those limitations are reached, consumers tend to get their entertainment fill much quicker. A good example may be the Guitar Hero series, which while innovative for its time, eventually reached a feature ceiling and by the time Guitar Hero V came out there simply wasn’t enough innovation left to sustain consumer interest.

“Additionally, we are beginning to see more fracturing within the social games market. Two years ago, there were maybe at most 10 high-quality time-based management games. In 2011, they are everywhere. More competition coupled with the limitation of consumers’ disposable time, will generally result in thinning of the market, where the total amount of activity may remain the same, but each individual game matures more rapidly as consumers jump more frequently to the newest games.

“This is not a suggestion that the social gaming market has peaked, but rather that it is maturing in relation to what is presently available, technologically, to publishers and developers. I believe that all the major publishers in the social space have realized this and as we move forward we will continue to see Facebook and social game publishers invest and experiment with new technologies that will ultimately give rise to new genres or evolve current ones.

“I think the first person shooter market provides a great example of how genres mature and how the introduction of new technologies can renew excitement in a category. During the PlayStation 2 era, the shooter category eventually hit a ceiling near the end of the cycle. Every conceivable feature that would make a shooter enjoyable was already being exploited, and this ultimately led to stagnating sales in the category. Then came the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, which introduced a robust online service network, allowing shooters to take advantage of online multiplayer and through the exploitation of this new technology, games in the Call of Duty and Battlefield series were able to reinvent themselves. For reference, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare sales doubled over its previous iteration, and I believe most would agree that the new progressive online multiplayer feature, which wasn’t technologically capable on the PlayStation 2, was a key driver in its success (in addition to shooters finally bringing games to the modern times).

“New technology breeds innovation and while I am confident that both Facebook and Google are beginning to expand their social offerings, I think it may be safe to say that the current time-based management genre, as we know it today, will have to rapidly evolve beyond the traditional ‘sprite clicking’ mechanics to sustain consumer interest.

“Again, I am not saying that social games are maturing, but rather the current standard game features that have driven social games over the last three years have likely matured. This should merely serve as a warning to a lot of small and independent developers who often chase success in the market.

“If anything, what I am suggesting is that what we’ve seen over the last 3 years should be classified as the ‘first generation’ of social games. I believe we are going to witness some of this evolution when Zynga launches its new 3D Mafia game in the coming months, which may propel social gaming into its second generation.”（Source：industrygamers）