游戏邦注：本文作者是Robin Boyar，她是游戏及数字用户市场调研和战略咨询公司thinktank创始人。

如今是个纪录风靡时代，2011年夏天也可以算作新兴休闲游戏领域的高峰之一。随着此热潮逐步达到最高点，该公司的估值也直线攀升——见证Zynga即将到来的10亿美元IPO，EA以7.5亿多美元收购PopCap。而任天堂第1季度出乎意料的3亿美元亏损说明游戏市场正趋向平衡。

是过热期、间冰期还是冰期？休闲游戏将走向何处？下文通过探究系列关键参数，呈现该领域的某些发展趋势。

族群分布和心理特征

首先电子游戏比以往更加风靡。游戏是现今年轻人的普遍消遣活动（游戏邦注：几乎所有5-10岁的男孩女孩都玩电子游戏）。同样，体验电子游戏的美国玩家过去10年来也有所增加。据最近的ESA 2011调查报告显示，72%美国人体验电子游戏。玩家中间年龄提高至37岁，女性玩家比例增长两个百分点，达42%。

增加人数主要集中在年长妇女，她们是各平台休闲游戏的主流玩家（包括在线、移动和社交）。从历史角度看，不论是在PC可下载内容、还是订阅、微交易模式，女性投入的资金要比同龄男性高得多。她们同时更享受和欣赏休闲游戏内容。同样，她们控制休闲游戏营收来源，包括本身和其他家庭成员。

玩家曾需忍受妈妈发出的《FarmVille》请求，或者常在公交车上看到父亲递给坐立不安小孩iPhone，以便让她安静下来，但如今休闲游戏的机制已截然不同。其不再靠门户网站推动，玩家无需再访问Yahoo!、Pogo、Big Fis、Real Networks或Addicting Games之类的网站。虽然这些网站仍旧存在，但其流量相比高峰时期均平均下降25%。

用户行为

社交和移动平台通过降低访问限制和提高易用性推动游戏活动大众化。玩家无需再通过绑定PC或游戏掌机体验电子游戏。社交网络成为11-60岁人群的必备工具。智能手机覆盖率达30%，有一半新手机都是智能手机。iPad如今位居儿童愿望清单榜首，获得个人iTouch是青少年新的成年仪式，就像DS带给其年长同胞的意义一样。

游戏机制仍旧简单通俗，或因触屏变得越来越有吸引力。不论是挑剔小孩，还是老年人，都能学会辨认连线消除模式，或这“拉”弹弓射死小猪，还是点击某些按键收获庄稼。

最终，购买活动因应用商店和Facebook credits得到简化。妈妈（或爸爸）无需再费力地跑到塔吉特百货，在百思买集团扫描货架，或者到相对荒凉的游戏站购买游戏。通过方便在线服务或应用商店，内容经过3次点击后就能出现。用户可通过在线、连网掌机、手机、社交和平板电脑平台选择无数款休闲游戏内容。多数游戏都能够免费体验。想要购买内容的玩家还能够先试后买，且付费游戏或微交易商品都相当平价，给处在后衰退时代的玩家带来成本效益。

内容和IP

在移动领域，榜首位置通常由知名游戏系列（游戏邦注：例如《宝石迷阵》和《NBA嘉年华》）、授权内容（如《Smurfs’ Village》和《Family Feud》）、游戏经典（如《Scrabble》和《大富翁》）、季节交叉推广内容（如《汽车总动员 2》和《Captain America》）和独立轰动作品（如《愤怒的小鸟》和《Words with Friends》）支配。这给广泛用户带来丰富多彩的游戏生态系统。

Smurfs’ Village from stpcdn.net

虽然社交游戏的内容和题材更具局限性，但你能够同好友共同体验，因此这有望提高积极性、粘性和整体乐趣。随着移动游戏发行商开始尝试融入社区元素，这些福利将逐步转移至移动平台。

同在线、手机和移动平台创举相比，DS将不再是个富有竞争力的游戏平台。其3D性能也因陈旧游戏内容而难以凸显。类似问题还存在掌机领域，今年E3上的90%作品都是既有内容的续集（还有就是应用能够带动设备销量，微软多年前就深谙此道，其推出《光晕》后Xbox便大获成功）。任天堂的3DS内容非常薄弱，大多是些新IP和创新内容。遗憾的是，即便是最忠诚的粉丝也会厌倦《塞尔达》之列的作品。

新游戏是否会有《口袋妖怪》、《塞尔达》和《神笔涂鸦王》的长盛不衰、深度或创造性？也许没有，但如今玩家体验休闲游戏的首个动机是打发无聊时光。多数玩家并不需要或者也不想要DS和PSP之类掌机体验带来的沉浸内容或长期粘性。相反，他们需要能在吸烟休息时间带来“刺激”的内容。

游戏开发

休闲游戏只需花费几万美元，虽然有些成本在几百万美元。尽管如此，这也只是掌机制作成本的一小部分。但看似简单的游戏通常掩盖其精致和付出努力。例如，Rovio推出《愤怒的小鸟》前制作过50多款作品和众多模型。Halfbrick在发行《水果忍者》前进行大量用户测试。制作精良的休闲游戏正好印证帕斯卡的话，“若我有更多时间，我会写封更短的信。”

这是电子游戏领域的丑陋小秘密。所有人都能够制作游戏。但鲜少有开发者能够制作出杰出作品。就像迪斯尼意识到的那样，这更多是人力资本问题，而不是资金问题。更多资金或更多时间通常无法确保制作出更好作品。PC和掌机领域（如Blizzard、Valve、Infinity Ward和Bungie）的杰出开发人才非常有限，而休闲游戏领域则少之更少。因此收购人才要比内部招聘简单得多，这也是Zynga屡屡进行收购，及EA收购PopCap的原因所在。

此外，若你打算制作一款持久作品（游戏邦注：这是当今市场所需），你就需要杰出游戏设计师，稳固支持和分析数据，以及强大运营和管理团队，这样你就能以服务模式管理新游戏（Zynga聘请众多前EA高管的原因是他们具有丰富运营经验，能够管理这些大规模团队）。

平台&推广

此外，在交叉平台日常风靡的市场，你不应瞄准某平台制作内容。遗憾的是，在休闲游戏领域，很多主流在线游戏公司或功能手机开发商/发行商对都无法顺利转移至社交或智能手机游戏。但PopCap是成绩显著、管理有序、富有创意的公司代表，其致力各平台制作长盛不衰的游戏续作（令人惊讶的是《宝石迷阵闪电战》是基于10年前的IP）。PopCap和Zynga拥有上百万忠实用户，这是个非常有利的优势，因为探索法越来越难实现，使得游戏开发商只有依靠交叉推广或昂贵用户获取预算方能壮大玩家基础。

Zynga凭借2010年的6亿美元营收证明免费模式在北美切实可行，这同时也说明成功亚洲商业模式在美国也能够运作。随着游戏开始搭载云技术，用户变成日益适应游戏买卖和微交易活动，数字销量将继续增长，像现在这样覆盖各个领域。这个转变已通过移动分析公司Flurry报道的营收数据清楚呈现：免费移动游戏在前100款热门作品的营收比重已从1月份的30%提高到如今的65%。

风险和机遇

虽然EA以争议收购和随后整合著称，但其众多收购行为最终都成为成功投资，例如Maxis、Pogo和Bioware。若EA坚持Riccitiello倡导的“City/State”关系，或许能够保持顺利发展。Zynga需有效管理公司发展，其能否顺利征服移动和中国之类的新市场、新领域，我们还得拭目以待。

两家公司都主要依靠苹果和Facebook等单一平台。Google+、Android和亚马逊之类的新竞争平台及重新自我改造的移动平台（游戏邦注：如黑莓和诺基亚）能否创造新营收机会，还有待时间证明。

最后，他们还需酝酿新作品，把握新平台的功能和局限。有些玩家已觉得社交游戏令人沮丧和厌烦， 例如在创新作品《Frontierville》中，玩家就要求更复杂的玩法。就像Kabam《亚瑟王国》和Zynga《Empires and Allies》成功呈现的那样，传统掌机男性玩家尚存在挖掘空间，能够带来新群体和更广阔的市场。

empires and llies from hksimg.com

因此，若游戏开发商坚持制作高质量体验及在不断涌现的新兴平台试验全新营收模式，休闲游戏的未来将非常美好。这些新兴数字平台通常会给予主导者不均衡回馈，因此游戏公司估价将处在预料之中，不会受到高估。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Hot Summer in the City: 2011 Casual Game Outlook

By Robin Boyar

As most of the United States struggles with record heat waves, the summer of 2011 may also be recorded as one of the hottest in the brief history of casual games. As the mercury continues to reach its highest heights, so are the valuations on casual games companies—witness Zygna’s upcoming $1 billion IPO and EA’s $750 million+ purchase of PopCap. Yet, Nintendo’s staggering loss of approximately $300 million in Q1 shows a marketplace struggling with balance.

Overheated, interglacial or ice age? Where is casual gaming going? An examination of key indicators provides some insights to this changing climate.

Demographics and Psychographics

First, video gaming is more popular than ever. Gaming is a universal past time for today’s youth. (Almost all girls and boys ages 5-10 are playing video games.) As such, the percentage of Americans playing video games has been increasing for the last ten years. According to a recent 2011 study by the ESA, 72% of Americans play video games. The median age of gamers has increased to 37, and the percentage of female gamers has increased two percentage points to 42%.

Many of these gains have come from older women, who have always been the key demographic of casual games, regardless of platform (online, mobile, or social). Historically, whether it’s through PC downloadables, subscriptions, or micro-transactions, women tend to monetize at much higher levels than their male counterparts. They’re also more likely to enjoy and approve of casual games content. As such, they hold the purse strings of casual gaming—whether for themselves or their families.

Yet for anyone who has had to endure a FarmVille request from their mom, or been on a bus and watched a dad hand his restless child an iPhone to quiet her down, the fundamental dynamics of casual gaming has changed. No longer is it portal driven, with gamers visiting sites such as Yahoo!, Pogo, Big Fish, Real Networks or Addicting Games. While these sites still exist, traffic is down on average 25% from their highs in the mid naughts.

User Behaviors

Social and mobile platforms have democratized gaming by reducing the friction points around access and ease of use. You no longer have to be tethered to a PC or game console to play video games. Social networks are de rigueur for anyone ages 11 to 60. Smartphone penetration is at about 30% and half of all new phones are smartphones. The iPad is now at the top of every kid’s wish list, and receiving their own iTouch is the new coming of age ritual for the tween audience, just as it was a DS for their older brethren.

The game mechanics have remained simple or have become increasingly appealing through the touchscreen. Anyone from a fussy toddler to a senior citizen can learn how to recognize patterns of three or “pull” on slingshot to shoot some pigs or click some buttons to harvest some crops.

Finally, purchasing has been simplified through apps stores and Facebook credits. No longer does Mom (or Dad) have to shlep to Target, scan the racks at Best Buy, or endure the relative wilderness of a GameStop to purchase games. Through the ease of online services or app stores, content is available in three clicks or taps. Consumers can chose from thousands of casual games on all platforms via online, connected console, mobile, social and tablet platforms. Most games are free to play. For those that want to purchase, players can try before they buy and even paid games or micro-transactions are relatively inexpensive, providing cost efficiencies in these post recessionary times.

Content and IP

In mobile, the top of the charts is predominated by well-known franchises (e.g., Bejeweled, NBA Jam), licensed content (e.g., Smurfs’ Village, Family Feud), game classics (Scrabble, Monopoly), seasonal cross promotions (e.g., Cars 2, Captain America) or independent breakthrough hits (e.g., Angry Birds, Words with Friends). This provides a rich and varied ecosystem for a wide audience.

While the lineup and genres within social games is more limited, you’re able to play with friends, thus potentially increasing your motivation, stickiness and overall enjoyment. These benefits are slowly moving to mobile, as mobile game publishers try and integrate the power of community.

Compared to these innovations in online, mobile and social, the DS is no longer a competitive game platform. Its 3D capabilities were also hobbled by an aging lineup of titles. A similar problem exists in the console arena, where 90% of all titles at this year’s E3 were installments of entrenched franchises. (Alas, software drives sales– Microsoft understood this years ago with the launch of Halo and the subsequent success of the Xbox.) Nintendo’s launch lineup for the 3DS was weak, filled with few new IP and innovative content. Unfortunately, even the most loyal fanboys can get tired of Zelda, etal.

Do the new games have the longevity, depth or creativity of a Pokemon, Zelda or Scribblenauts? Perhaps not, but today’s audience #1 motivation for playing casual games is quelling boredom. Most casual gamers don’t need or want the immersive and long session engagement promised by DS and PSP play and certainly not by console play. Instead, they want something that provides the “hit” of a virtual cigarette break (or at least some amusement until their now reduced calorie Happy Meal arrives).

Game Development

Casual games can be made for ten of thousands of dollars, though some may cost a few million. Nonetheless, this is a fraction of AAA console development. But the games seeming simplicity often belies their elegance and the efforts entailed. For example, Rovio developed over fifty mobile games and numerous prototypes before Angry Birds. Halfbrick did significant user testing with their hit, Fruit Ninja. Well-made casual games are the gaming equivalent of Pascal’s famous quote, “If I had more time, I would have written you a shorter letter.”

That is the dirty little secret of the video gaming industry. Anyone can make a game. But there are few developers that can make an EXCELLENT one. It’s mostly a human capital issue, not a financial one, as Disney has sadly realized. More money or more time does not always make a better game. The list of talented developers is short in the PC and console space (e.g., Blizzard, Valve, Infinity Ward, Bungie) and even smaller in the casual games space. Hence, it is often easier to buy talent than recruit internally, which is one of the reasons why Zynga has been on an acquisition spree and why EA bought PopCap.

Furthermore, if you’re making a casual game with persistent elements, which today’s market requires, you need talented game designers, deep back end analytics, as well as strong operations and management team, so that you can manage this new Gaming as a Service model. (There’s a reason why Zynga has hired many ex EA studio heads—they have the operations experience to manage these large-scale teams.)

Platforms & Distribution

Additionally, in this increasingly crossplatform marketplace, you need to be platform agnostic. Unfortunately, in the casual games space, many leading online games companies or feature phone mobile developers/publishers have failed making the transition to social or smartphone games. Yet, PopCap is a stunning example of a successful, well managed creative company, taking time to craft evergreen franchises on multiple platforms. (Amazingly, Bejeweled Blitz is based on a now ten year old IP.) Both PopCap and Zynga have millions of loyal users, another valuable benefit as discovery methods become more difficult and gamemakers are left with relying on cross promotion or expensive acquisition budgets.

Lastly, with approximately $600 million revenue in 2010, Zynga has proven that the free to play (F2P) model can be successful in North America, thus proving that this region is open to the business models that have proven so successful in Asia. As gaming begins to embrace the cloud and consumers become more accustomed to in game purchases and microtransactions, digital sales should continue to grow, as they are doing within other areas of gaming. This shift is already apparent as revenue from freemium mobile games in the top 100 now comprises 65%, up from 30% in January, according to mobile analytics firm Flurry.

Risks and Opportunities

Though EA has a reputation for problematic acquisitions and subsequent integration, many purchases have proven to be successful investments, such as Maxis, Pogo, and Bioware. If EA adheres to the “City/State” relationship that Mr. Riccitiello preaches, all may be well. Zynga will need to manage its growth, and it remains to be seen if they can conquer new markets and regions such as mobile and China.

Both companies are also reliant on monolithic platforms such as Apple and Facebook, and it remains to be seen if new competitors such as Google+, Android and Amazon, and those mobile platforms reinventing themselves such as BlackBerry and Nokia may provide new and significant revenue opportunities.

Finally, they will need to foster the development of new IP and master the newfound capabilities and constraints of these new platforms. Some consumers have expressed frustration and boredom with social games, and as in the case of Frontierville, which brought new context and innovation to the genre, consumers will demand more sophisticated gameplay. As witnessed with the success of Kabam’s Kingdoms of Camelot and Zynga’s Empires and Allies, there may even been room for the traditional hardcore male audience, thus creating new demographics and an even larger market.

Thus, the future of casual gaming is strong if game makers persist in developing quality experiences and experimenting with new monetization models on emerging platforms which consumers continue to embrace. As these new digital markets tend to provide its leaders with disproportionate rewards, these valuations for these stalwarts may prove to be prescient rather than overvalued.

Robin Boyar is the founder of thinktank, a market research and strategy consultancy focusing on gaming and the digital consumer. Typical projects include strategic analysis, surveys, focus groups, usability testing and game playability. She’s been working in video gaming since 2000 and previously led research efforts at EA and Pogo.com. More information can be found atthinktank8.com or @thinktanktweets.（Source：gamezebo）