游戏作品在市场竞争中获胜的概率究竟有多大？在这个问题上，也许曾经大获成功的开发者最有发言权。

Jon Hare曾因开发《Sensible Soccer》而享誉盛名（游戏邦注：该作品是一款在90年代极为火爆的足球游戏，也是首款直正应用的直觉模拟控制系统的运动类游戏），目前创办了自己的数码游戏工作室Tower Studios。他的观点是，要在苹果App Store的千军万马中胜出，需要具备中彩票一样的运气。

Jon Hare

他认为，因为许多用户都只愿意免费玩游戏，这给想采取谨慎步伐，同时又创新运营业务的独资企业带来了挑战，而大型发行商时不时疏漏掉的那些市场预算金额，也让人们错误地估计了市场竞争形势。

据Hare所称，现在的开发商要赢得苹果App Store或PlayStation Network等数码游戏下载市场，不但需要卓越的才能和辛勤地付出，碰准运气和把握时机也同样必不可少。

他解释道，“对每一款与《愤怒的小鸟》（Angry Birds》同样幸运的游戏来说，其他999款游戏都难免成为陪衬，发行后就陷入沉寂。这个1：999的成功概率对两手空空的青年创业者来说没什么大不少，他们没啥资产可以损失；但对那些已经初具规模，小有成就的开发商来说，就是一个大风险……从App Store和其他相关的数码游戏发行渠道的成功法则来看，游戏脱颖而出的胜算好比是抽奖中头彩一样困难。”

那么，还有没有其他破解之道？

Hare所提出的一点建议是，规模相称的游戏公司应该抱团作战，实现公共关系、市场营销和营收策略等资源的共享，大家组团形成的规模有助于加强与苹果和其他业内伙伴的紧密合作。

他表示，“现在看来，开发出色的游戏作品并不难，但是要让它引起公众关注，同时促使用户自觉地为不走寻常路的游戏掏钱买单实非易事。”

游戏邦另外还了解到，Tower工作室正在准备在2011年初推出《Speedball 2 Evolution》这款根据Bitmap Brothers公司经典游戏改编的iOS和PSP Mini游戏。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Being successful on the App Store feels like a lottery says Tower Studios’ Jon Hare

Age provides an opportunity for the more experienced members of society to look back through tinted spectacles, occasionally dropping a tear into their warm beer.

Still, when it comes to game development, those who have experienced success in the past can also provide an interesting angle on the state of the current business.

This seems to be the reason behind the release to the media of the thoughts of Jon Hare, once of Sensible Soccer fame, and now running his digital outfit Tower Studios.

“On the surface it would appear that today’s developers have similar opportunities to those in the Commodore 64 and Amiga eras,” he says.

“However, from a business perspective the landscape is very different. It is now increasingly hard for a successful, but non-corporate company to run a sensible and prudent creative business at a time where many consumers will only play-for-free, and the big hitting publishers use their occasionally loss leading marketing budgets to drown out the voices of the competition.”

Roll of the dice

Hare’s view of the digital download markets such as Apple App Store or PlayStation Network is that it now requires luck and timing, as well as talent and hard work to succeed.

“For every Angry Birds, another 999 games are vanishing in the void. 999/1 odds are OK for youngsters with nothing to lose, but not for people who are a bit older, and with a bit more to risk,” he explains.

“Due to the current processes that dictate success on the App Store and other equivalent digital distribution mechanisms, being successful feels like a lottery.”

So what’s the solution?

One idea Hare raises is for similar companies to work together in a collaborative fashion to provide PR, marketing and monetisation strategies, with their bulk enabling them to work more closely with Apple and other industry partners.

“These days it seems that making great games is the easy part; it is generating enough publicity and getting consumers to put their hand in their pocket for something that is not mainstream that is the challenge,” he ends.

And for the record, Tower is releasing Speedball 2 Evolution, a modern reworking of the classic Bitmap Brothers game on iOS and PSP Minis in early 2011. （source:pocketgamer）