作者：Dean Takahashi

2012年的游戏开发者大会（以下简称GDC）是我最喜欢的游戏盛会之一，因为它重点关注了游戏行业的创造性。以下是我从5天参会经历中简要总结的12个2012年游戏行业趋势：

1.淘金热仍未降温

今年的GDC吸引了2万2500名以上的参会者，比去年增加了17%。这种情况明显好于2009年，当时参会人员从前一年的1万8000人下降为1万7000人。与会人员的激增也可以反映2011年整个产业的发展盛况，该时期见证了Nexon和Zynga这两大公司的IPO，这两个曾经被污名化的公司从中吸收了数十亿美元的资金。据Digi-Capital数据显示，去年游戏行业达成了152笔投资交易，投资额增长96%，达到20亿美元。行业收购交易增长160%，交易额达34亿美元。

Zynga首席运营官John Schappert不认同电子游戏正处于黑暗时代的说法。他在GDC演讲中指出，我们正处于电子游戏的黄金时代，游戏玩家数量将增长至数十亿人。在网络、社交及手机游戏繁荣发展，每周都会诞生新兴公司的情况下，这种乐观说法无疑更具感染力。Schappert认为，行业将出现更多新玩法，更多玩家和更多机遇。

从众多招聘摊位、职业俱乐部、大量独立游戏开发者齐聚纽约的现象中可以看出，Schappert的话令人深信不疑。

2.Kickstarter热潮

Double Fine Prouductions的Tim Schafer因为在大众融资平台Kickstarter成功集资300多万美元，并因此吸引了大众眼球，他将利用这笔钱开发冒险游戏。Kickstarter代表Cindy Au借此向GDC与会者介绍了如何为项目进行大众融资的方法。

3.硬核游戏退居次席

但并非人人都是这场淘金热的赢家。NPD Group在GDC上指出，美国硬核电子游戏销量在2月份下滑了20%（在1月份下滑34%）。硬核掌机游戏公司的3D美术人员正面临失业威胁，而休闲手机及社交游戏公司的2D美术人员却供不应求。随着社交及手机游戏的发展，这种趋势将有所转变。但对行业中的某些人而言，他们难以一蹴而就地从日薄西山的领域转向快速发展的市场，稍有差池就有可能付出极大代价。传统游戏公司THQ而举步蹒跚地进军新游戏行业，该公司目前握有4700万现金，但市值却跌到了4100万美元。

4.新iPad成为热点

苹果在今年再一次抢尽风头。去年任天堂首席执行官岩田聪在苹果发布新产品时，进行了专题演讲。但今年GDC没有任何专题演讲，苹果成功使新iPad成为媒体焦点。游戏开发者对该设备的反映也十分理想，新iPad不但对PlayStaion Vita这种游戏手持设备形成挑战，而且还是掌机这种设备的一大威胁。苹果同时赢得了游戏开发者和游戏玩家的欢心。正如资深游戏开发者Raph Koster所言，“重心很显然已转向了移动设备”。

5.免费增值模式潜力无限

这种让玩家免费玩游戏，付费买道具的模式正席卷整个游戏行业。这个市场的虚拟商品收益已达90亿美元，成为产值达490亿美元的游戏行业中发展最迅速的领域。PopCap Games高管Giordano Bruno Contestabile在GDC大会上分享《宝石迷阵闪电战》转向免费增值模式的成功经验就是一个明证。

Koster曾撰文指出，“社交/免费增值模式不但获得了成功，而且已占据主导地位”。不过要有节制地使用这种方法，不可过度剥削用户。

free to play(from quora.com)

6.3D版本手机及社交游戏兴起

网页游戏的图像效果一直很不如意，这主要是因为如果不首先下载插件，用户就无法在浏览器上运行高端的3D游戏动画。但Adobe即将推出的Flash 11.2版本将支持Flash网页游戏兼容电脑中的3D图像硬件。而Epic Games旗下的虚幻引擎3也将与新版Flash合作。谷歌Chrome浏览器的Native Client和Unity Technologies的Unity 3D引擎也将推出各自的3D技术。

7.game jams活动盛行

Game james是一种创意集会，鼓励参与者在短时间内创作出一款游戏，并与大众分享成果。这种活动出现很久了，但最近才开始结出硕果。Double Fine Production在去年举办的一个game jam诞生了《Sesame Street: Once Upon a Monster》这个作品。今年的GDC上出现了更多类似的game jam活动。

8.怀旧游戏重返新平台

今年仍有许多顶级游戏开发者回忆了激发自己灵感的旧游戏。John Romero称《吃豆人》是《毁灭战士》和《雷神之锤》走廊战争的灵感来源（游戏邦注：他自称曾在一个月中为玩《吃豆人》花了200美元），Sid Meier表示自己Dani Bunten的《The Seven Cities of Gold》获得了制作《文明》的启发，Will Wright则从《Pinball Construction Set》中获得了《模拟城市》的灵感。

Ed Logg谈到了制作《Gauntlet》的话题，在经典游戏重现电子游戏黄金时代的背景下，这个话题相当重要，只是这一时期的重要平台已经转向了智能手机和平板电脑。在Logg这种设计师看来，这些设备是表达创意的理想载体。Logg已经加入了由雅达利远老及行业新秀组建的Innovative Leisure团队，该工作室致力于设计优质的手机游戏。

9.关注情感的游戏

许多电子游戏取材于暴力元素。但今年的GDC有个热门话题就是制作充满爱而非战争的游戏。该讨论会由Jane McGonigal和Jane Pinckard主持，独立开发者Michael Molinari介绍了他和Chelsea Howe制作《The End of Us》这款游戏的想法，该游戏讲述两颗彗星坠入爱河并面临生离死别的经过。尽管在人类长达5000年的暴力史面前，制作充满爱心的游戏并非一种趋势，但与会者希望这会成为一个行业转折点。

10.博彩游戏发展机遇

Big Fish Games收购Self Aware Games这家公司后也加入了博彩游戏大战，当美国出台的相关法案将在线博彩行为合法化时，不少大型游戏公司都纷纷重新自我定位，试图让博彩游戏成为一个真正的赌博平台。问题在于博彩游戏并不一定需要具有创意，开发者会厌倦制作此类游戏。俄罗斯游戏发行商Game Insight首席执行官Alisa Chumachenko提到博彩游戏的复兴时颇为忧虑。

11.山寨现象成为话题

从某人作品中获取灵感并非坏事，但复制他人作品就是另一回事了。即便独立开发者大力推崇创造性，但手机及社交游戏领域的山寨现象却是有增无减。

对付山寨现象的最佳方法就是加倍创新，美国互动艺术科学学会主席Martin Rae表示，“这一行有一些原创想法，有时候最佳创意往往是旧想法迭代的结果。有时候人们提出的想法并不成熟，但在此基础上进行迭代可以推出更好的作品。”

12.下一代掌机鲜有消息

许多人都想获知关于下一代视频掌机的最新消息。有传闻称下一代Xbox将支持无磁盘驱动，完全在线的运行方式。但微软并没有确认这个消息。

微软最近表示他们不会在E3展会上宣布下一代Xbox的消息，索尼之前也宣布他们不会在E3公布PlayStation的新情况，只有任天堂将在该展会上透露Wii U硬件的情况。

Capcom高级副总裁Christian Svensson在媒体采访中表示，掌机设备制造商应该关注由于智能手机、平板电脑和在线游戏所推动的游戏行业变化（游戏邦注：例如响应性、快速更新和发布，便于发售等特点）。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

The DeanBeat: The top 12 trends from the GDC

Dean Takahashi

Too often, I flit from one conference to another like a wayward butterfly, trying to catch up with all the news. But the Game Developers Conference is one of my favorite events of the year because it places such a high value on creativity in the game industry. It is fitting to dwell upon it and to figure out what this year’s conference in San Francisco, which ended Friday March 9, was all about.

It’s presumptuous to say that I could spot every trend, given my limited experience of the five-day event with more than 400 sessions. But here are some things I noticed.

The Gold Rush continues

This year, the Game Developers Conference (GDC) drew more than 22,500 attendees, up 17 percent from a year ago. That’s much better than the heart of the economic downturn in 2009, when attendance fell from 18,000 the year before to 17,000. The attendance boom is no surprise given the growth of the industry in 2011, which saw two mega-IPOs for Nexon and Zynga. Billions of dollars are being tossed at the game geeks who were once ostracized for having too many pimples. Last year, investments in game companies grew 96 percent to $2 billion in 152 deals. Game acquisitions grew 160 percent to $3.4 billion, according to Digi-Capital.

John Schappert, chief operating officer of Zynga, disagrees with those who say we’re in the Dark Ages of video games. In his GDC speech, he argued that we are living through another golden age, when play, the essential activity behind gaming, will reach a billion people. Such optimism is contagious in an age full of growth in the online, social, and mobile sectors, where new companies are sprouting every week. There are, Schappert said, “more ways to play, more players, more opportunities.”

The impact of this was visible on sidewalks clogged with recruitment hawkers on the sidewalks (pictured), and in the clogged career hall and the plentiful (and occasionally offensive) parties that took over all of the bars of San Francisco. There were huge numbers of indie-game developers. Against that backdrop, Schappert’s speech was believable.

Kickstarter blossoms

In keeping with our first trend, Double Fine Productions’ Tim Schafer has drawn huge attention to crowdfunding through Kickstarter by raising nearly $3 million from game fans for a new project. Schafer plans to make an adventure game with the money, as long as he doesn’t squander it all first. Kickstarter’s Cindy Au told GDC attendees how to get crowdfunding for their own projects.

The core retreats

Not everyone is benefiting from the Gold Rush. In the midst of the GDC, the NPD Group reported that core U.S. video game sales fell 20 percent in February, following a 34 percent drop in January. 3D artists in particular seemed to be losing their jobs at core console game companies, while 2D artists were in demand at the casual social game companies and mobile game firms. That may change as social and mobile games grow up. But it could be hard for some people in the industry to jump from a faltering horse to a faster one. A misstep can be costly. I ran into an acquaintance who was laid off from THQ, a struggling core game maker that is expanding into the new game industry. THQ has $47 million in cash, but its market cap has fallen to $41 million.

The iPad rules

This year, Apple crashed the party again. Last year, Nintendo’s chief executive Satoru Iwata gave a GDC speech at the very same time that Apple launched its Apple 2. Guess which company got overshadowed? This year, there were no GDC major keynote speeches, so Apple had the spotlight to itself as it launched the new iPad down the street. The reaction from game developers was positive. Not only is this a threat to gaming portables such as the ill-timed PlayStation Vita, it is also a threat to the consoles themselves. Accidental or not, Apple is winning over game developers and gamers alike. “The center of gravity has clearly shifted to mobile,” wrote Raph Koster, a seasoned game developer.

Free-to-play

Free-to-play, where users play for free and pay real money for virtual goods, is taking over as the business model for the whole game industry. Virtual goods revenues are at $9 billion and are the fastest-growing part of the $49 billion game industry. PopCap Games’ Giordano Bruno Contestabile discussed the lessons of moving Bejeweled Blitz to a free-to-play model at the GDC.

“The social/free-to-play model is clearly not just winning but dominant,” wrote Koster. But you have to do it ethically, without milking your users.

Mobile and social games go 3D

Browser-based game graphics have been mostly lame for a long time. That’s because it’s technically hard to run sophisticated 3D game animation through a browser without doing a big download first. But Adobe’s upcoming Flash 11.2 will enable Flash-based browser games to tap 3D graphics hardware in a computer as needed. Even Epic Games’ Unreal Engine 3 will work inside the new Flash, as announced by Epic’s Mark Rein (pictured). Other 3D-capable technologies such as Google’s Native Client for Chrome browsers and Unity Technologies Unity 3D engine are also coming into their own.

Game jams

Game jams are creative gatherings where creators work furiously to create a game in a short time and share it with the crowd. These events have been around forever, but they’re starting to yield interesting fruit. Last year, Double Fine Productions held a game jam that led to the creation of Sesame Street: Once Upon a Monster. It’s no surprise that just about everyone held a game jam at this year’s conference, and one session headed by Austin Montville of Tagged zeroed in on how to do it.

Retro rules

The GDC continued its waltz through yesteryear as top game developers reminisced about the games that inspired them. John Romero credited Pac-Man for inspiring the corridor warfare of Doom and Quake, while Sid Meier lauded Dani Bunten’s The Seven Cities of Gold for inspiring Civilization, and Will Wright was inspired by Pinball Construction Set before he built SimCity (which also got a second life). Romero spent $200 a month playing Pac-Man.

Ed Logg talked about creating Gauntlet. That was relevant because the classic games of the golden age of video games has returned, only this time to the platform of smartphones and tablets. Those devices are the ideal vessels for the creativity of designers like Logg, who has joined Innovative Leisure, a collection of Atari veterans and youngsters intent on making well-designed mobile games.

Emotion and love

The wrong end of a gun has inspired much of the emotion in video games. But a session on making love, not war, in video games proved to be popular with both male and female game developers. Moderated by Jane McGonigal (pictured at podium) and Jane Pinckard, the session focused on “how designing for love can change the world.” Michael Molinari, an indie game maker, talked about how he and Chelsea Howe created a game called The End of Us about two comets that fall in love and then deal with the death of one of them. Making love games is not a trend, given 5,000 years of violent games have preceded this panel. But the organizers hope it will be a turning point.

Casino game bandwagon

Big Fish Games joined the casino game wars as it acquired Self Aware Games, a maker of mobile casino titles. Big game companies are positioning themselves for the day when online gambling is legalized across the country, and casino games can become real gambling platforms. The trouble with casino games is that they aren’t necessarily that creative, and game developers get bored making them. Alisa Chumachenko, chief executive of Russian game publisher Game Insight, sighed with frustration at the mere mention of revival of casino games.

Copycats are evil

It’s one thing to be inspired by another’s work, but another thing to copy it. Even as creativity is celebrated among the indie developers making apps, its evil nemesis copycatting has become worse than ever in mobile and social games. Even the New York Times weighed in on the subject, which we discussed with Zynga chief executive Mark Pincus in early February. (Yes, indeed, they must have copied our story!).

The best way to counter copycats is to double down on creativity. Martin Rae, president of the Academy of Interactive Arts and Sciences, said, “There are very original ideas, and sometimes the best ideas are iterations on the old ideas. Sometimes people are just too early with their ideas. People iterate on that idea and do something better.”

Waiting for next gen?

Lots of people wanted to hear the latest rumors about the next-generation video game consoles. There were plenty of those to go around, including one that suggested the next Xbox would have no disk drive and would be entirely online. Alas, the confirmations just aren’t coming yet.

Microsoft said today it won’t talk about the next Xbox at E3. Sony previously said that it would not talk about a PlayStation 4 at E3, leaving Nintendo alone to talk about the Wii U hardware at the big trade show.

Capcom senior vice president Christian Svensson told Gamasutra that the console makers should pay attention to how the game business has changed — with the responsiveness, quick turnaround on updates and launches, and easy distribution — thanks to smartphones, tablets and online gaming.（source:venturebeat）