手机游戏公司Ngmoco创始人及前EA高管Neil Young日前表示，在互联网更加开放的今天，动视公司如果不采用新型运营模式，很可能就会陷入困境。在他看来，动视公司仍在等待时机，正在掂量业务转型究竟是不是个明智的选择。

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Young认为社交游戏、免费游戏不会退出舞台，在线免费内容的质量一直在不断提升，静观其变可能只会错失良机。据他所言，人们认为体验一款免费试玩游戏比购买《使命召唤》更合算的那一天迟早会到来，而这种情况的降临，对穷于应对的动视来说无异于一场灾难。他举了克雷格列表（游戏邦注：Craigslist，大型免费分类广告网站）为例，称这家网站每年的营收为8000万美元，虽然不是一家大企业，但仍可通过先进的运营模式，从18亿美元的分类广告市场中抽取十分之一的收益。

他表示自己觉得动视有可能通过收购来维系自己的运营，但他对这种发展策略表示怀疑，称这个行业还没有哪一家公司可支撑动视的后续发展。

与此同时，他还表示这种危机并非动视一家公司独有，其他无法顺应时代潮流的大型发商也难逃此劫。不过他盛赞了自己的老雇主EA公司，认为在THQ、Take Two和EA等堪与动视媲美的公司中，EA最有可能顺利实现健康转型，因为EA正通过逐年的收购积累以及开发不同游戏项目，建立了自己的一套稳定制度，所以最有可能抓住未来的发展机遇。

尽管《使命召唤》的销量连年破纪录，吸金能力更是超群，而且丝毫没有衰退的趋势，但也仍然没有人可以确保它就是屹立不倒的神话。虽然包装出售的游戏项目不可能一夜崩盘，就像YouTube的出现并没有让影视行业走向末路，但如果动视及其他传统大型游戏公司不与时俱进的话，他们很可能会置身于始料未及的尴尬处境。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Ngmoco Sees Rocky Road Ahead for Activision

Ngmoco founder and former EA executive, Neil Young says that Activision may soon find itself in a very difficult position if it doesn’t start embracing the new models that the internet has opened up. Young felt that Activision was biding its time, and questioned whether that was really a smart move.

Young said that social and free-to-play games weren’t going to just disappear, and that waiting would only make the problem worse as what you could get for free online was getting better all the time. He added that he could conceive of a time when someone would make a free-to-play shooter that would be a worthy rival to Call of Duty, which could be disastrous for Activision if it wasn’t properly prepared. He made a comparison to the site Craigslist, which generates about $80 million in revenue a year. Craigslist wasn’t an enormous company, he said, but it had still been able to decimate the $1.8 billion classified ads market by having a more up-to-date business model.

He felt that Activision would only rumble to life when it absolutely had to, and then would try to acquire the expertise by buying up another company. Young was skeptical about the potential success of that plan however, saying that there wasn’t anyone that Activision could buy that would allow it to compete properly.

It wasn’t just Activision that was in danger of being left behind either, Young said that most of the big publishers weren’t doing enough to get ahead of changing trends. He was full of praise for his former employer EA, however, saying that of the likes of Activision, THQ, and Take Two, EA was most likely to come out of this market transition in good health. He said that EA had been slowly building its “institutional knowledge” for years via acquisitions and development of different game types, and that would give it the edge in the future.

With Call of Duty breaking records year after year, not to mention making mountains of cash, it feels somewhat unstoppable, but there’s no institution so big that it can’t fail. It’s hard to see packaged games drying up entirely, in much the same way that YouTube hasn’t killed off the movie industry, but if Activision – and other publishers too – don’t move with the times, they could find themselves in a much more tenuous position than they ever imagined.（source:escapistmagazine）