作者：Patrick Miller

Ubisoft Blue Byte的高级在线游戏总监Teut Weidemann在游戏产业已经打拼很久了。我可以通过他的作品去介绍这个人，即从《Turrican》，到《Panzer Elite》再到《The Settlers Online》等等。而他即将在GDC Next上的演讲，“为什么今天游戏中的一切都是不相干的”这一题目便说明了表露出了他的想法。我与Weidemann就为什么他认为手机游戏是未来游戏产业的核心以及他是如何看待多年来手机游戏行业的改变展开了交谈。

Teut Weidemann(from medientage)

Patrick Miller：你在GDC Next上的演讲大胆地描述了手机游戏在未来游戏产业中的前景。我已经与一些当前在手机平台上面临着发现性和用户获取问题，并拉低了价格预期的开发者们交谈过。对于开发者需要采取不同的做法才能在手机平台上获取成功这一点你有什么看法？你是否认为如果要推动更广泛的开发者和游戏获取成功，应用商店，平台和硬件等等就需要做出相应的改变？

Teut Weidemann：每个新的市场机遇都有一条学习曲线。发现性是一大问题，但也许我们需要基于发现用户并引导他们打开你的应用等方面而进行更广泛的思考。关于用户获取vs.终身价值，我们的想法仍太过传统。

我同样也认为，如果你想要处理最大的用户基础，你就需要确保自己的设置和类型足以与之相匹配。我发现许多开发者抱怨他们的“科幻类塔防游戏”卖的不好。这是显然的，如果你计算了塔防游戏在应用商店中所获取的数值，然后再计算科幻设置内容的数值，你便会发现科幻内容在全球市场中太过利基了。

我并不认为硬件需要做出改变。这是人类发明过的最好卖的设备，所以它们的存在并没有错。我发现它们身上逐渐开始出现一些创造性，并且我也希望这不会让那些想要获得巨大飞跃的投资者感到厌烦。

如果一切的关键在于应用发现和应用广告，这便需要运营商/制造商想办法去优化它们。我的意思是，为什么苹果不在他们的应用商店中为应用销售广告？这真的是个巨大的机遇！就像谷歌的广告那样！

PM：从开发者角度来看，为了让自己的工作室能够创造手机游戏，开发者们需要做些什么？你是否认为在接下来几年里进入手机市场的预备知识将会发生改变？

TW：如果想要在手机市场上获得成功，开发者们就需要做出巨大的改变。首先，想着如何才能让游戏适应设备。研究表示，人们绝大多数时候是在家玩游戏。我也不相信“所有游戏/类型都能作用于所有平台。”我认为最畅销的游戏便是那些能够有效适应设备的游戏：你需要整合设备，它的属性和用户体验，并基于此去优化你的游戏。

大多数传统开发者都不能做到这点，这也是大多数优秀应用都来自新团队的主要原因—-他们会从不同角度进行思考，没有那么多局限性，并能够不断实践。这也是我喜欢独立市场的主要原因。

适应是一条艰难的学习曲线，而当你与那些App Store中资深的开发者进行交谈时，你便能够快速学到许多有帮助的内容。所以我建议你们能够多与这些人接触，交谈与学习。我希望GDC Next和ADC也能带给你们这样的帮助。

PM：你已经接触手机游戏很长时间，并见证了很多人从爆炸式发展（手机游戏能够让所有人发财！）走向衰败（手机游戏是一种可怕的赚钱方式）的转变。从你的角度来看，手机游戏将走向哪里？你认为现在的人们是否忽略了那些新兴趋势或有趣的作品（设计之类）？

TW：先驱者总是能够赚大钱。如今每个人都在做出尝试，所以这里早已挤满了各种人，并出现了各种问题。每个人都有可能获取成功。这是新市场的正常行为，我们无需为此担忧。

而我真正担忧的还是应用市场缺少准入门槛。这是我们需要解决的问题。我们已经发现许多应用甚至从未获得下载（如僵尸应用），还有来自世界各地的复制作品能够不受控制地轻松进入该市场等等。

我们必须在问题进一步恶化前将其扼杀掉，而对于未来，我认为巨大的市场仅仅取决于其大小。在世界范围内我们很快便拥有数十亿的设备（游戏邦注：可能在2016年）。因为市场的规模，你甚至可以不需要离开椅子便将应用发行到世界各地—-这便意味着即使你的应用下载率只有0.1%，算起来也是有上百万的下载量。

是的，这也伴随着价格，但我们将随着时间的发展不断学习如何处理这些问题。

PM：你提到当前手机市场具有低准入门槛的问题；那么对于你来说，从人们如何在App Store找到游戏来看，怎样才算理想的手机市场？

TW：我认为之后的应用商店将会效仿亚马逊。它们在搜索商品方面做得很出色。直到那时，开发者就必须具有足够的创造性，除非他们想要完全依赖于苹果的推荐。

理想的手机市场将自动淘汰它不再需要或不受欢迎的应用。像应用商店中那些没人注意的僵尸应用便可以删掉了，而该市场还将在用户的帮助下去完善应用研究。我也认为帮助提高曝光率的应用将更加受欢迎，苹果应该支持这些应用—-但同时它们也需要采取适当的管制措施去阻止滥用行为。

PM：你如何看待今后5至10年里手机市场的游戏定价？开发者是否能够重新夺回更高的定价点（5美元至50美元以上？），又或者你是否认为我们将把广告支持/免费模式作为标准模式？

TW：免费模式将成为大势。你不能打压免费。但是有些应用是基于固定价格才有意义，不过也能够通过添加应用内部购买作为额外服务。而一些真正高端的付费游戏也因为更接近零售价而能够有效吸引用户的注意。我敢打赌我们很快便能看到售价50美元的大型成功游戏—-就像已经有售价20美元的游戏获取了巨大商业利益了。如果你拥有硬核用户并希望看到这样的游戏，你就应该这么做。

PM：就像你说的，手机游戏比任何其它的硬件设备更能触及更广泛的用户。而你认为在未来5至10年里这种情况是否会改变游戏的制作方式？你是否期待着看到目标用户的任何根本性转变——你是否认为这会改变开发者们制作游戏的类型？

TW：我认为手机将为我们培养“下一代的玩家”，他们最终将转向主机或PC去玩“其它”游戏。这将推动市场的不断发展。我们同样也将看到硬核游戏和手机游戏间的交叉潜力。像育碧现在便通过《Watch_Dogs》和《The Division》支持着平板电脑与主机结合的游戏玩法，我们的团队一直在获取各种经验，学习哪些方法可行哪些不可行。我认为我们将看到更多游戏从手机走向主机或PC平台。这种情况已经出现了。

PM：我想知道你是从哪里获取创作灵感的（是从游戏还是外部世界）？最近你阅读过哪些书籍？

TW：我真的很喜欢阅读，但说实话，最近我很少有时间进行阅读。为了研究我不得不花大量时间去玩各种在线游戏。所以我的灵感主要是来自产业本身，即各种创造性以及每一年出现的让人惊艳的新游戏。

而唯一吸引我注意的其它媒体便是有趣的电视节目。自从看了《吸血鬼猎人巴菲》我便一直很喜欢看电视，并几乎看过所有出色的作品。幸运的是，这里也有许多很棒的资源，如HBO，BBC等。我也很爱看《金装律师》这类型的电视剧。

我的第三个灵感来源便是我的妻子和四个孩子的反馈。他们刚好是男女对半，并且分属于两个年龄层，所以我总是能够即时获得最诚实的反馈。

PM：有时候技术和游戏中的最佳理念并不会在最适当的时候实现。你是否能够列举出电子游戏历史上哪些作品因为过早出现而未能获取成功？

TW：我想到了Apple Newton，我真的很喜欢它。还有Palm的PAD，我还记得当时整个产业因为Virtual Reality而疯狂着，但是它却突然夭折了。不过现在它又复苏了。还有任天堂Power Glove。

之前真的出现过许多很酷的作品，但可能因为缺少执行度而遭遇了失败。我想3D印刷也是如此。想想你在为游戏设置一个军队，而隔天早上它们就能出现在你的书桌上，多酷啊！如果它们能够移动的话就更棒了，这也让我想到了机器人技术。我们看到了完全电脑化的迷你直升飞机和四轴飞行器，并且很快地我们将看到小型且廉价的机器人。之后我们甚至能够进行真实的桌面操作！对于我来说，这便是我们辉煌的未来啊！

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

What’s Next? Move to mobile, or fall behind!

By Patrick Miller

Ubisoft Blue Byte senior online game supervisor Teut Weidemann has had an extensive career in the games industry. I could introduce him simply by his credits, which span from Turrican, to Panzer Elite, to The Settlers Online, among others. But the name of his upcoming GDC Next talk, “Why Everything in Games Today is Irrelevant” says enough. I spoke to him about why he sees mobile games as the center of the future game industry — and how he sees the mobile games sector changing over the years.

Patrick Miller: Your talk at GDC Next appears to be pretty bold on the prospects of mobile games as the future of the industry. I’ve spoken to many devs that are having problems in mobile right now, though, due to discoverability and user acquisition issues, and bottomed-out price expectations (among other concerns). What do you think devs need to do differently to succeed in mobile? What do you think needs to change in the app stores, platforms, hardware etc. to enable a wider variety of devs and games to succeed?

Teut Weidemann: Each new market opportunity has a learning curve. The discoverability is one problem, but maybe we need to think broader in terms of finding users and leading them to your app. We still think too classic in terms of user acquisition vs. lifetime value.

I also think if you want to address the largest userbase possible, you should make sure your setting and genre is compatible with that. I see many devs complaining that their “Science Fiction Tower Defense Game” doesn’t sell. That’s obvious, isn’t it — if you count the number of tower defense games in the app store, and then the science fiction setting on top of that? Yes, Sci-Fi is niche when you ask your worldwide audience.

I don’t think the hardware has to change. It’s the fastest-selling device humanity ever invented, so they do most things right. I see the innovation coming in microsteps from now on, and I hope that doesn’t annoy the investors who expect huge jumps.

If the key is app discovery and advertising your app, then it’s up to the operators/manufacturers to optimize this. I mean, why doesn’t Apple sell ads in their app store for apps? That’d be huge! As huge as Google ads, maybe!

PM: From the dev side, what does a dev need to do to make their studio mobile-viable? How do you think the prerequisites for entering the mobile market will change over the next few years?

TW: Developers need to change a lot when they want to succeed in the mobile market. First: It’s not mobile. Research has shown that people play at home most of the time. I also don’t believe too much in “all games / genres work on all platforms”. I think the best sellers will always be the ones who are perfectly fitted to the device: You need to embrace the device, its attributes and user experience, and optimize your game for it.

It’s where most traditional devs fail, and that’s why most top apps are from new teams — because they think differently, less in restrictions and best practices. That’s also why I love the indie market.

This step of adaptation is a tough learning curve, and when you talk to devs who have experience in the App Store, you learn a lot in a very short time. So I can only recommend networking with them, talking to them, learning from them. It’s the little things which make you fail. I hope GDC Next and ADC is a good place for this.

PM: You’ve been around in mobile games long enough to see the hype explode (mobile games will make us all rich!) and then die down (mobile games are a terrible way to make money!). From your perspective, where are mobile games going to go from here? Are there any emerging trends or interesting work (design, biz, whatever) in mobile that you think people are sleeping on right now?

TW: The first movers made money — as always. Now everyone tries, and of course there is congestion and problems. Not everyone can be successful. This is a normal behavior of new markets, nothing to worry about.

What I am worried about is the lack of entry barrier into the app market. This causes problems which need to be fixed at some point. We already see that a large portion of apps are never downloaded (zombie apps), or clones entering the market in a short time from countries which are beyond your control, etc.

This will be fixed when problems become more serious, but as for the future I see a huge market simply due to its size. We will have billions of devices in the world very soon — around 2016. Just due to the market’s size, and the fact that you can publish your app worldwide without even leaving your chair — this means that if only 0.1% download your app you suddenly have a reach of millions. Which other medium can claim this?

Yes, this comes with a price, but we’ll learn over time how to address those problems. You have to break an egg to make an omelette.

PM: You mention the current mobile market’s issues with low barriers to entry; what would an ideal mobile market look like, to you, in terms of how people find games in an App Store?

TW: I think over time the app store has to mimic Amazon.com. They do an excellent job of discovering stuff to buy. Until then, devs need to be creative, unless they want to be totally dependent on Apple featuring you.

The ideal mobile market would self-regulate apps it no longer needs or which are unpopular. There are a lot of zombie apps in the store which could be removed and no one would care, but would improve app search by the user. I also think apps which help discovery should be more popular, and Apple should support those — but regulations must be in place to prevent exploitation.

PM: How do you see the game pricing situation in the mobile market shaking out over the next 5-10 years? Will devs be able to recapture higher price points ($5-$50+?), or do you think we’re more or less stuck with ad-supported/freemium models as the standard?

TW: The freemium model will dominate. You can’t beat free. However, some apps make sense to be sold for a fixed price, maybe add in-app purchases for expansions or extra services. Some really premium titles, high-end games, will catch users for close to retail prices. I bet we will see a huge, successful game for $50 soon — we already had $20 games making good business. If you have a core audience who wants your game, then you can do this.

PM: Like you said, mobile games can reach a far wider audience than any other hardware device pretty much ever. How do you think this will change the way games are made (and which games are made) over the next 5-10 years? Do you anticipate any radical shifts in terms of demographics or audience — and do you think that’ll change the kinds of games that are made?

TW: I think mobile will train our “next generation of gamers” who will eventually move to console or PC to play the “other” games. Exciting times, as this will grow the market. We also will see a lot of cross potential between core games and mobile. Ubisoft currently supports tablet-console co-op gameplay with Watch_Dogs and The Division, and the teams are gaining experience, learning what works and what doesn’t. I think we’ll also see more games migrating from mobile to the console or PC. This is already happening and in motion.

PM: Let’s change tracks a little bit: What inspires you and your work (either in games or outside of it)? Read any good books lately?

TW:I love to read, but to be honest, I rarely have the time for it these days. I play most online games (both client and mobile) as research, and that takes a lot of time. So I am mostly inspired by our industry itself, the creativity and surprising new games coming out each year.

The only other media catching my attention are good TV series. I’ve loved them since Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and saw so many that I actually ran out of good ones to see. Luckily, there is plenty of supply from the excellent sources, HBO, BBC etc. I even fell in love with lawyer series like Suits and Boston Legal.

Then my third pillar of inspiration comes from feedback of my four kids and my wife (who is a gamer as well). As they are 50/50 male/female and two age groups, I get instant and honest feedback about whether I suck or not. Pro tip for gamers: Marry a gamer and you’ll be happy!

PM: Sometimes it seems like the best ideas in tech and games simply didn’t happen at the right time. Is there anything you’ve come across in the history of video games that you think was too early to succeed?

TW: I remember the Apple Newton and loved it. I have fond memories of Palm’s PDAs. I remember the industry going crazy about Virtual Reality, and it suddenly died. Now it has a revival. I remember the Nintendo Power Glove.

Nearly all cool stuff has been here before — but with less execution, maybe. The one thing I firmly believe in being too cool to ignore is 3D printing. Imagine: you order an army for your game and its on your desk the next morning. If they could only move…which leads me to micro robotics. We see fully computerized mini helicopters and quadcopters, but soon we’ll see cheap robots in miniature. Then we can actually talk about real tabletop action! For nerds like me, it’s a glorious future!(source:gamasutra)