作者：Todd Anglin

对于HTML5开发者和决策人来说，当前最重要的技术要数HTML，JavaScript，CSS手机平台，设备以及进化中的HTML平台（浏览器和操作系统）。而这便意味着2013年将出现如下10大趋势：

1.HTML5手机平台的崛起

HTML5在面向手机设备创造跨平台应用方面扮演着越来越重要的角色。而在此之前这一工作主要是寄托在原生“包装器”上，如Cordova，让HTML和JavaScript能将应用推向其它原生平台上（如iOS和Android）。这一技术被成为“混合型”应用开发。

HTML5(from readwrite)

而今年将出现一大批新兴平台去支持HTML5应用作为基本功能——并且不再需要任何包装器！最引人注意的便是Chrome OS，它能有效地吸引谷歌的注意；而在欧洲，Firefox OS也已经能在一些低端ZTE和TCL上运行了；专注于HTML的全新平台Tizen得到了许多产业巨头的支持，baokIntel和三星；Ubuntu Phone将大受欢迎的Linux带到手机上，并且也制定了以HTML为中心的应用策略；黑莓10将HTML和JavaScript当成下一代应用策略的核心；Windows 8为其“Windows 8风格”应用引进了全新的HTML和JavaScript开发模式。其中的一个（或多个）平台将有可能在2013年大获全胜。而我最看好的便是Chrome OS和Tizen。基于谷歌的支持，开发者和用户的推动以及更广泛的平台策略（跨越手机和台式机），Chrome OS将取得巨大的发展。

与此同时，Tizen也获得了产业中许多巨头的支持，包括Intel，三星，NEC，松下，Sprint，华为以及沃达丰，并负责The Linux Foundation的工程管理。作为开源设备平台，它拥有巨大的潜力能够对Android发起挑战，并吸引广大设备制作人的注意。

2.面向Chrome

越来越多网站再次开始创造面向单一浏览器的网页应用。就像20世纪90年代所掀起的“面向IE创造应用”热潮一样，如今的开发者们也开始打着“面向Chrome”创造应用的旗号。在2013年这一趋势将越发迅猛。随着时代的快速发展，越来越多浏览器平台能够用于各种主要的操作系统中（游戏邦注：包括Windows，Mac，Linux，Android以及Kinda iOS），而Webkit基础将帮助应用与其它非Chrome浏览器（如Safari以及黑莓浏览器）实现兼容。所以当提到专门面向Chrome创造应用时，开发者所得出的结论都是“好大于坏”。为了留住那些可能离去的用户，面向Chrome的开发者们可以利用HTML5的API并节省宝贵的开发与测试时间。

3.IE10的发展

IE10被公认为微软浏览器的最大飞跃。拥有比网页标准更多的支持，IE10将微软的浏览器真正推向现代HTML5的行列中。但是因为像Chrome和Firedox等快速更新的浏览器始终跑在最前列，所以IE将可能再次被归列为古老且发展缓慢的一员。不过微软仍有可能更加快速地发展IE：微软所拥有的HTML5 Lab（最初出现在IE9）将继续面向IE10进行完善，推动着它成为更加强大的HTML5浏览器。虽然IE10刚刚起步，但这却是一个非常好的开始。

4.IE6，IE7以及IE8的衰败

在IE10大出风头的同时，微软之前的IE版本将逐渐走向衰败。只有最顽固的企业（和中国）仍是基于IE6的支持，而世界上其它地区的使用者都选择直接跳过IE7。如果你还未停止使用IE6和IE7，那么在2013年里你绝对会这么做。也许抛弃IE8的趋势还不是很明显，但这并不表示这种情况就不存在。不只IE10的发布导致IE8的两个版本变得过时，而且在2013年jQuery 2.0将加入谷歌应用，如此便会彻底截断了IE8的去路。我相信在年末，大多数开发者都将停止使用IE8。

5.Android 2.x的消失

Android 2.x（Eclair、 Froyo以及Gingerbread）看上去就是另外一个IE6。根据谷歌的数据，在2012年中期，所有Android设备上的Android版本（主要是2.3 x）的使用率仍超过90%，尽管那时候谷歌已经推出了Android 4+。也就是说谷歌不能成功地推动用户基础（和生态系统）的升级。不过幸运的是，2012年的假日季打破了这一僵局。2012年年末，Android 4+（Ice Cream Sandwich和Jelly Bean）的用户增加了将近40%。直到2013年年末，Android 2.x的用户将只剩下不到15%的比例，而Android开发者也将完全转向版本4+。

6.响应式设计成为主流

直到现在，响应式设计仍处于网页开发的边缘。所以改变是必然的。随着PC和手机设备之间的界限越来越模糊，开发者将只能选择开发那些能够适用于各种屏幕尺寸和分辨率的网页和应用。

为了缓解这种情况，我们需要寻找新技巧和实际标准，并提供适当的指导帮助开发者去面对不同的设备性能和形式因素。

7.手机开发超越了桌面开发

无需高额分析成本我们便能够意识到手机和平板电脑的发展，以及传统PC的衰退。如今，开发者更愿意花时间面向手机设备（而非传统台式PC）开发软件，从消费者市场扩展到各种规模的企业中，并同时触及内部和外部用户。如果在2013年你并未面向手机设备开发应用，你便只会遭遇两种结果，1）维护传统软件，2）错失良机。

8.桌面HTML应用

尽管手机平台不断崛起，但也不意味着桌面开发的完全终止。对于许多信息工作者而言，传统的桌面形式元素仍很重要。但是随着PC参和进众多选择中，开发者便需要想办法跨越PC和手机设备去编写代码。HTML和JavaScript便能够提供这种服务，而像Chrome Packaged Apps和Windows Store Style (WinJS)apps等平台也能够帮你实现这一点。微软和谷歌都推动着HTML在桌面应用开发中发挥着重要作用，而开发者们也将注意到这一点，并开始整合跨平台桌面开发与HTML和JavaScript。

9.SPA的时代

随着桌面开发的转变以及手机应用开发的日趋复杂（转向HTML和JavaScript），开发者将意识到新技术在创造主流跨平台应用的重要性。多亏了Backbone，Knockout以及Kendo UI，“单页应用（SPA）”也开始迅速发展。如果说“RIA（Rich Internet Applications）”是2010年的流行词，那么“SPA”将成为2013年的流行词。在2013年里，作为一名HTML和JavaScript的开发者，如果你正在寻找一种全新的技术或理念，那么SPA便是最佳选择。

10.HTML接下来的其它版本

现在，W3C已经“完成了”HTML5，公众和媒体的关注焦点将转向下一个网页标准平台。W3C已经致力于创造HTML5.1，这将是下一个WHATWG（网页超文本应用技术工作组）“标准”的缩影。可以预见，在经历了“HTML5”泡沫后，我们也会再次谈论HTML（不管哪个版本）。不管怎样，HTML平台的下一步发展将不再专注于HTML5的低层核心（DOM elements, CSS styles, Simple JavaScript APIs，就像Geolocation），而是转向对应用开发更加重要的特征完善方面（如 ShadowDOM, Web Components, CSS布局以及语音识别等等）。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

HTML5: 10 Provocative Predictions For The Future

By Todd Anglin

For HTML5 developers and decision makers, the most important technologies right now are HTML, JavaScript, CSS, mobile platforms and devices and evolving HTML platforms (browsers and operating systems). But what does that mean in the real world? It means these 10 things in 2013:

1. Rise Of HTML5 Mobile Platforms

HTML5 has played an increasingly important role building cross-platform apps for mobile devices. So far that has primarily been done using native “wrappers,” such as Cordova, which allow HTML and JavaScript to power apps on other native platforms (such as iOS and Android). This technique is called “hybrid” app development.

This year, though, a wave of emerging platforms will support HTML5 apps as a first-class citizen – no wrapper required! The biggest players will be Chrome OS, which is about to get much more attention from Google; Firefox OS, already scheduled to start shipping on low-end ZTE and TCL devices in Europe; Tizen, a new HTML-focused platform backed by many industry heavyweights, including Intel and Samsung; Ubuntu Phone, which brings the most popular flavor of Linux to phones, again with a HTML-centered ap strategy; BlackBerry 10, which puts HTML and JavaScript at the center of its next-gen app strategy; and Windows 8, which introduced a new HTML and JavaScript development model for it’s “Windows 8 style” apps.   One (or more) of these platforms is bound to succeed in 2013. My money is on Chrome OS and Tizen. With the backing of Google, a revamped developer and consumer push, and the broadest platform strategy (spans mobile and desktop), Chrome OS is very well positioned.

Tizen, meanwhile, enjoys broad industry backing from Intel, Samsung, NEC, Panasonic, Sprint, Huawei and Vodafone (among many others), and engineering stewardship in The Linux Foundation. It shows the most potential to challenge Android as the “more open” (read: more customizable) open source device platform, which should appeal to device makers.

2. Made For Chrome(kit)

A growing number of sites are once again buildiing Web apps tested to work in only one browser. Like the “Made for Internet Explorer” badges of the 1990s, developers are now proudly advertising “Made for Chrome” in their apps. Not using Chrome? No guarantees.   This trend is likely to accelerate in 2013.   With a rapidly evolving, highly capable browser platform that is available on virtually every major operating system (Windows, Mac, Linux, Android and kinda iOS), and a Webkit foundation that helps deliver a little extra compatibility with other non-Chrome browsers (like Safari and BlackBerry browser), developers are likely to conclude that the “good outweighs the bad” when it comes to building exclusively for Chrome.   In exchange for potentially alienating some users, developers building for Chrome can more aggressively leverage HTML5 APIs and save valuable development and testing time.
3. IE10 Euphoria – And Pain

Internet Explorer 10 is widely regarded as a huge step forward for the venerable Microsoft browser. With more support than ever for Web standards, IE10 goes a long way to put Microsoft’s browser in the modern HTML5 conversation.   But as fast-updating browsers like Chrome and Firefox race forward through 2013, IE will once again be left looking old and slow. There is a glimmer of hope that Microsoft will evolve IE more quickly: The Microsoft-owned HTML5 Labs, launched originally in the IE9 days, is continuing to publish new “experimental” improvements for IE10 that make it an even more capable HTML5 browser. Baby steps, but still a good sign.

4. The Death Of IE6, IE7 & IE8

While IE10 will be in the spotlight, the long death march for Microsoft’s older IE versions will continue. Only the most stubborn corporate environments (and China) still require IE6 support, and much of the world skipped IE7 anyway. If you haven’t already stopped supporting IE6 and IE7, 2013 is definitely your year.   Dropping IE8 is a bit more of a stretch, but the pressure is on. Not only does IE10’s release make IE8 two versions old (often used as a “clean” support cut-off justification), but jQuery 2.0 will join Google Apps in cutting-off IE8 in 2013. By the end of the year, most developers will conclude IE8 is not worth their time.

5. The Death Of Android 2.x

Until recently, it looked like we had another IE6 on our hands with Android 2.x (Eclair, Froyo and Gingerbread). According to Google’s own stats, as recently as mid-2012, these versions of Android (mostly 2.3.x) represented more than 90% of all Android devices in use, despite the fact that Google was already shipping Android 4+! Google was failing to keep its Android user base (and ecosystem) upgrading.   Fortunately, the 2012 holiday season seems to have broken the logjam. Usage of Android 4+ (Ice Cream Sandwich and Jelly Bean) surged to nearly 40% at the end of 2012. By the end of 2013, Android 2.x will likely account for less than 15% of the market, and Android developers will be able to shift focus to versions 4+.

6. Responsive Design Goes Mainstream

So far, responsive design has remained on the fringes of Web development – something nice to do “if you have time.”   That’s about to change. With the lines between PCs and mobile devices increasingly blurred, developers will have no choice but to develop websites and apps that can dynamically adapt to an unpredictable array of screen sizes and resolutions.

(See also The New ReadWrite: Looking Good On Every Screen [Video]..).

To ease the way, look for new techniques and defacto standards to also emerge, offering guidance for properly dealing with different device capabilities and form factors.

7. Mobile Development Overtakes Desktop

It doesn’t take an expensive analyst to see the growth in phones and tablets while traditional PCs fade. Right now is the moment when developers will begin spending more time developing software for mobile devices than for traditional desktop PCs, extending from the consumer market to businesses of all sizes, for both internal and external audiences. If you’re not developing for devices in 2013, you’re either A) maintaining legacy software, or B) missing the boat.

8. HTML On The Desktop

Just because mobile is on the rise, don’t start writing an obituary for desktop development. The traditional desktop form factor will remain critical for many information workers. But as the PC becomes one among many screens, developers will look for ways to write code that can be shared across the PC and mobile devices.   HTML and JavaScript are perfectly positioned to offer this capability, and platforms like Chrome Packaged Apps and Windows Store Style (WinJS) apps will make this possible. With both Microsoft and Google pushing HTML for desktop app development, developers will take notice and start embracing cross-platform desktop development with HTML and JavaScript.

9. SPA Time

With the shift of desktop development and increasingly complex mobile apps to HTML and JavaScript, developers will recognize the need for new techniques to build maintainable cross-platform apps. The “Single Page Application” (or SPA) has been on the rise thanks to powerful frameworks like Backbone, Knockout and even Kendo UI. If “RIA” (Rich Internet Applications) was the buzzword in 2010, “SPA” will be the buzzword in 2013.   If you’re looking for the one new technology or concept to learn as an HTML and JavaScript developer in 2013, it’s SPA architecture.

10. HTML Gets Naked (Again)

Now that the W3C has “finalized” HTML5, public conversation and media coverage is going focus on what’s next for the Web standards platform. The W3C is already working on HTML 5.1, the next “snapshot” of the “living standards” work done within WHATWG, the Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group. But as we move past the “HTML5” bubble, we’ll once again settle-in to talking about HTML, sans version numbers. After all, who wants to talk or write about “HTML5.1” or “HTML5.3”?   Whatever it’s called, the next wave of HTML platform improvements will shift focus beyond the lower-level core at the center of HTML5 (DOM elements, CSS styles, Simple JavaScript APIs like Geolocation) and instead characterize improvements that are important to more robust application development (like ShadowDOM, Web Components, CSS layouts, speech recognition and more).

The HTML conversation (and technology) will continue to evolve, even if the version numbers don’t come along for the ride.(source:readwrite)