作者：Azam Khan

数千人齐聚旧金山皇宫酒店参加Mobilebeat 2011和Gamesbeat 2011大会，旨在探讨游戏未来发展。迫在眉睫的问题是：HTML5何时能够变得引人注意？为更好回答此问题，我们首先先来看看此技术，及其采用公司的相关情况。

html5 from mrhaoji.com

HTML5发展成无处不在的技术并无法带来什么特别优势，但很多公司早早就涉足这个开放网络。会上德国PlaySocial（游戏邦注：其推出服务让手机游戏开发商能够通过统一推广API，立即在开放网络连接至各种手机社交网络）首席执行官发表了讲话。虽然技术尚处在初期阶段，但游戏开发商需开始探究此开放网络，因为高墙中的花园（暗指在线游戏和虚拟世界）过去以来的发展态势似乎不尽如人意。

MocoSpace from crunchbase.com

其他将瞄准HTML5游戏的公司包括游戏门户网站、开发商以及Spil Games之类的综合公司，他们目前几乎都有推出Flash内容，但都认为HTML5未来两年将主导市场。我们过去瞄准的Mocospace是开发网络中的成熟手机游戏网络，完全基于HTML5 技术。Mocospace 2010年11月宣布其ARPPU（每付费用户平均收益）为13美元/月。下面是更多有关Mocospace的数据：

* 基于网络和HTML5技术

* MocoSpace有2000万用户，是个提供乐趣、游戏体验和结交新朋友的平台。

* 90%的用户来自美国，男女各占一半

* 多数用户介于18-34岁，平均年龄是25岁

* 游戏和聊天/即时通讯是热门活动（游戏邦注：而Facebook的主要内容是游戏和Photos）

* 平台营收同Facebook不相上下，甚至略胜一筹（Mocospace的ARPU超过1美元）

* 用户体验社交游戏的总时间超过100万小时/天

* 智能手机的总用户基础是2000万

苹果原生应用翻了一翻，Facebook斯巴达项目旨在通过浏览器获取用户，绕开原生应用。Facebook计划向开发商提供各种工具，以便其能够采用HTML5技术。作为HTML5技术传播者，谷歌兼顾两个方面，既顺应趋势，也投身原生应用。未来独立游戏领域将主要依赖于内置付费模式，因为排名算法将转向参照用户粘性，而非下载量，免费游戏似乎有望主导游戏市场。

Flurry最新数据表明，今年第二季度的苹果支持者要多于Android支持者。凭借高性能芯片，移动设备越来越强大，越来越快速，开发商既要顾及原生应用，又要开始着手跨平台游戏。

在Japheth Dillman主持的座谈会中，GameDuell首席执行官指出，我们对于跨平台的定义各不相同。跨平台指采用某平台，放弃其他平台？垮平台指跨设备体验？跨平台需把PC及其他主流平台囊括在内？我们没有标准答案。Spilgames的Peter Driessen和GameDuell首席执行官都认为未来2-3年，人们不会再关注设备，因为他们已能够不考虑平台同好友共同体验。

用户未来无疑能够享有更多、更好的游戏类型和游戏社区。我们将看到社交游戏继续在各个市场茁壮成长。据comScore表示，智能手机用户在2010年11月-2011年1月和2011年2月-4月两个阶段增加了13%。约有7500万美国用户拥有智能手机，以谷歌的Android平台最为领先，其市场份额为36%，而苹果和RIM分别为26%和25%。在此期间，手机浏览器的使用量超过应用下载量（游戏邦注：其比例分别为39%和37%）。

多数游戏公司都是靠小部分用户创收，其中更小范围的主要营收群体被称作鲸鱼用户。若开放网络的游戏平台能够帮助开发商留住这些鲸鱼用户，那么HTML5技术就会获得更快发展，Flash和原生应用就会逐渐淡出用户视线。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Gamesbeat 2011: HTML5 Gaming Is The Future

By Azam Khan

Thousands gathered in Palace Hotel in SF for Mobilebeat 2011 and Gamesbeat 2011 to learn and discuss the future of games. The pressing question: When does HTML5 become significant? To better answer that question, we’ll take a look at some nuances and companies experimenting with HTML5 today. More after the jump.

HTML5′s progressive path to ubiquity doesn’t confer it with any special abilities, but many companies are embracing the open web earlier on. We heard talks from the CEO of German-based PlaySocial, a service that provides mobile game developers a unified distribution API to connect to various mobile social networks on the open web instantly. Think of them as the Viximo of mobile.  Although its a bit early on, game developers will need to think about the open web since the fate of walled gardens has been, in the past, not so great.

Others that will be embracing HTML5 based games include game portals, developers and aggregators like Spil Games, who mostly have flash content at the moment but recognize that in 2 yrs HTML5 will be the way to go.  There is also Mocospace which we’ve covered in the past that is a full fledged mobile gaming network on the open web and fully HTML5 based. Mocospace reported ARPPU of $13/month in Nov 2010. ISome more stats about Mocospace:

* Web-based, and HTML5

* 20 million users to which MocoSpace provides a place to have fun, play games and meet new people.

* 90% of users from US with a 50/50 split.

* Most users 18-34 with avg. of 25 yr olds.

* Games and chat/IM are most populat activities (whereas in Facebook it’s games and Photos)

* Monetization similar to Facebook and even higher (ARPU of over $1 has been observed in Mocospace)

* Members play mobile social games more than 1 million hours per day collectively.

* Total smartphone userbase is: 20M

Apple has doubled down on native apps and Facebook’s project spartan aims to bypass native apps altogether by embracing users through their browsers. Facebook plans on offering many tools to developers to them get them running on HTML5. Google has been on both sides of the coin as a torchbearer of HTML5 while hedging their bets and going native app crazy. The indie game industry for the next few years will depend heavily on in-app purchases as algorithms for rankings shift towards engagement vs downloads and freemium titles seem to be getting used the most.

The latest stats from Flurry show that there have been more developers supporting Apple in Q2 of this year than Android. As mobile devices getting stronger and faster due to higher performing chipsets, developers should remain bullish on native apps but start thinking about cross-platform gaming.

In a panel moderated by Japheth Dillman, the CEO of GameDuell alluded to the fact that we can all define cross-platform differently. Is cross-platform about playing on one gaming network against others? Is it mainly about cross-device play? Does it need to include PC’s and other major platforms/OS’s in order to be officially cross-platform? There isn’t an answer set in stone. Peter Driessen, CEO of Spilgames, and the CEO of GameDuell both felt that in 2-3 yrs from now people won’t be talking about devices, because everyone will be able to play with their friends regardless of device/platform.

People will definitely get a bigger, better assortment of games and gaming communities in the coming years. We’re going to see social gaming continue to grow in all markets. According to comScore, smartphone ownership increased 13% between the periods of November 2010-January 2011 and February 2011-April 2011. About 75 million US consumers have smartphones, with Google’s Android platform pushing north. Google devices own a 36% market share, Apple devices have a 26% share and RIM holds a 25% market share. During the same period, mobile browser usage was slightly ahead of downloaded app usage (39% versus 37%).

Most gaming companies make money from a small percentage of their users and the majority of that money is made up of an even smaller percentage of users known as whales. If game platforms on the open web can help developers retain these whales, then we may see HTML5 take off faster than we expected but for the foreseeable future flash and native apps aren’t going anywhere.（Source：socialtimes）