作者：Lisa Hanson

在庆祝我们为客户传达高完整性中国和东南亚数字游戏市场情报的15周年，Niko Partners决定为你们呈现在我们所覆盖的市场中关于2017年数字游戏产业的15大预测，这些市场包括：中国大陆，印度尼西亚，马来西亚，菲律宾，新加坡，台湾，泰国和越南。

1.今年在中国有超过5亿人将玩手机游戏

在中国手机游戏玩家数量持续增加，所以每付费用户所创造的收益也在增加。今年中国的手机游戏收益将提升，但提升率却不如2016年那么快。手机游戏将变得更加复杂且具有沉浸感。我们预测在2017年手机游戏收益将达到83亿美元。需要注意的是：中国政府关于手机游戏收益的数据是包括国内收益与出口手机游戏收益，而Niko所说的只是关于中国本土所创造的收益。

2.电子竞技将推动中国和东南亚国家网吧和PC在线游戏的使用

因为玩家对于社交游戏以及舒服且能与其他玩家对抗的电子竞技环境的需求，许多网吧将迅速诞生。电子竞技爱好者既会去观看现场直播比赛也会玩竞争游戏，这能有效推动游戏和比赛的收益。

3.在中国腾讯将面对来自网易的强大竞争

2016年，腾讯以将近50%的市场份额主导着中国的手机游戏市场，但网易的手机游戏收益却快速增长了2倍直逼腾讯。网易拥有包括《梦幻西游》，《阴阳师》等热门手机游戏。我们认为网易将在这个市场上维持第2的位置并再一次以比腾讯更猛的势头向前发展着。

4.2017年中国电子竞技爱好者将超过2亿人

在中国，现在的电子竞技比过往更受欢迎。2017年中国教育部将引进官方电子竞技大学学位，我们也将看到更多公司对于电子竞技比赛的投资。在像《王者荣耀》等硬核游戏以及《球球大作战》等休闲游戏的推动下（游戏邦注：这两款游戏每天的玩家数量都能达到7500万），手机电子竞技游戏将在今年更加快速地发展。

5.VR游戏吧与体验馆对于推动VR的使用非常重要

2016年是中国虚拟现实发展的“第一年”，因为这一领域是在这一年真正开始发展起来的。从硬件销量来看，随着手机VR成为其中的主要贡献者，我们估算2016年中国VR硬件市场的规模已经达到了3亿美元。但是VR游戏还未能真正吸引主流用户的注意，开发者也正努力去追赶人们对VR的需求。同时中国的VR游戏吧与体验区域也让玩家们可以在无需购买高端硬件的情况下去尝试VR，等到游戏真正涌向市场时玩家的需求便会随之涌现出来。Steam和HTC都是当前人们对于VR游戏吧的需求的主要受益者。

6.中国政府将继续加强对游戏产业的管制

中国广电总局在2016年公布了新规则，即要求手机游戏开发者在面向应用商店发行游戏前需要需要经过批准且拥有版本号。这些全新规则在新的一年也将发挥作用并且将贯穿于所有应用商店。2017年将会出现更多不同的规则，并且对于游戏开发者来说，在进入中国市场前了解所有的这些规章制度至关重要。

7.2017年Pan Entertainment（韩国经济公司）IP的发展

在过去几年里Pan Entertainment一直呈现着快速发展的趋势，我们也认为在2017年他们将延续这一发展趋势。现在的游戏业务已经延伸向电视节目，电影，书籍，动画等等领域。网易也宣称将基于《阴阳师》游戏去制作电影，腾讯也正围绕着一款电子竞技游戏在创造动画。现在关于中国和美国电影工作室的合作已经不是什么新鲜事了。

8.对于许多东南亚国家来说电子竞技其实也是一种国家级运动

随着电子竞技在东南亚市场的发展，人们都非常疯狂地追随着那些职业玩家与团队，粉丝们都会去参加在许多国家举办的像《英雄联盟》，《守望先锋》和《远古守卫2》等游戏的比赛。在该区域最热衷于电子竞技的国家便包括泰国，越南。

9.中国的主机市场将保持原样

中国主机市场虽然略有发展，但仍存在许多阻碍其快速发展的元素。为了在2017年获得发展，一些公司需要去利用较低的主机定价，进一步的游戏本土化并创造全新中文游戏。“中国之星计划”便是中开发团队对于中国主机产业发展的贡献的一大机遇。我们也将观察着任天堂是否会进军中国市场。

10.单机游戏将在中国和东南亚市场的Steam和TGP上寻找机会

我们发现去年的一大趋势便是中国的Steam和TGP上单机游戏的再次崛起。因为支持本地付款，较低的价格以及简体字，许多游戏都在中国的Steam平台获得了成功。此外，Steam在东南亚还占据着第二大区域市场份额。我们期待在2017年像Steam和TGP等单机游戏平台能够继续获得显著发展，并且更多独立开发者和AAA级发行商能够带着简体中文游戏出现在这些平台上。另一方面，在这些区域也会出现一些规则去限制Steam在中国的分销活动。

11.中国和全球游戏公司的合作将继续发展

2016年对于中国与外国公司的兼并来说是非常重要的一年。腾讯以86亿美元收购了Supercell，Giant以44亿美元收购了Ceasars Games以及中技控股以4亿美元收购了Jagex。我们认为通过并购，中国游戏市场的领头军们将继续发展，并不断将他们的影响力扩展到海外市场中。

12.增强现实与定位服务将出现在更多游戏中

Pokemon Go(from xzxyxx)

《Pokemon Go》在2016年的影响范围是全球性的，并且直至今日它仍维持在最畅销游戏的榜首位置。这款游戏利用了增强现实（AR）和定位服务（LBS）让玩家去收集Pokemon。腾讯也在《王者荣耀》中使用了LBS功能让玩家能在省内，市内或学校/工作场所内的玩家所组成的联盟中竞争。我们将在新的一年里期待更多游戏能够有效整合AR和LBS功能。

13.HTML5游戏将在2017年更受欢迎

多亏于游戏质量，盈利系统以及分销渠道的发展，HTML5将在2017年变得更受欢迎。2016年有超过6000款HTML5游戏问世，我们也期待这一数值在2017年会继续增长。

14.更多外国游戏将在东南亚国家吸引玩家的注意

随着电子竞技游戏在东南亚不断发光发亮，该区域将成为全球PC和手机游戏收益发展最快的区域之一，外国（西方）游戏开发者将更加看重该区域并为了占据这一市场而与当地游戏运营商或手机分销商合作去吸引玩家的注意。

15.我们最后的预测是Google Play将在今年进入中国

这是14个预测中唯一一个我们在2016年1月提到但却未在这一年实现的。但我们相信2017年Google Play将开始进入中国。不过考虑到当前Android商店在中国的巨大竞争力，我们还是不能期Google Play能在中国获得巨大的市场份额。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转发，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Top Predictions for the 2017 Digital Games Market in China and Southeast Asia

by Lisa Hanson

In celebration of our 15th anniversary of delivering clients high-integrity market intelligence on the Chinese and Southeast Asian digital games industry, Niko Partners offers you our Top 15 predictions about the 2017 digital games industry in the markets we cover: Mainland China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

1.More than 500 million will play mobile games in China this year

The number of mobile gamers continues to grow in China, as does revenue per paying user. China’s revenue from mobile games will rise this year, but at a slower rate than in 2016. Mobile games are becoming more complex and immersive. We forecast Chinese mobile games revenue to hit $8.3 billion in 2017. Note: Chinese government data on mobile games revenue includes domestic revenue plus revenue from exports of Chinese mobile games, whereas Niko’s reflects only revenue generated in China.

2.eSports will drive use of Internet cafés and PC online games in China and SEA

Increased investment into Internet cafés has sprung from gamer demand for a social and eSports friendly environment to play and compete with each other. eSports enthusiasts both watch live-streamed tournaments and play the competitive games just for fun, pushing revenue for the games and the competitive tournaments higher.

3.Tencent will face heavy competition from NetEase in China for mobile games

Tencent dominated the China mobile games market in 2016 with around 50% market share, but NetEase’s mobile game revenues grew by more than 2X to quickly chase Tencent for the top spot. NetEase has a number of mobile hits including Fantasy Westward Journey, Onmyouji and New Ghost. We expect NetEase to maintain the #2 spot in the market and once again grow faster than Tencent.

4.The number of eSports enthusiasts in China will exceed 200 million in 2017

eSports is becoming more popular than ever in China. 2017 will see the introduction of an official eSports degree in colleges by China’s Ministry of Education and we expect to see more companies investing in eSports tournaments this year. Mobile eSports will see huge growth this year driven by core titles like King of Glory and casual titles like Battle of Balls, both of which are being played by 75 million users per day.

5.VR cafés and experience zones will be important for consumer VR use

2016 became “year one” of virtual reality in China, due to the fact that the sector finally truly started to grow. We estimated that China’s VR hardware market size hit $300 million in 2016 with mobile VR being the unequivocal leader in terms of hardware unit sales. VR games have not yet drawn the attention of mainstream consumers, and developers are trying to catch up to the demand for VR gear. Meanwhile, VR cafés and experience zones throughout China will allow gamers to try VR without the investment in high-end hardware, and when the games start to pour into the market demand will be there already. Steam (as the content distributor) and HTC (as the developer of Vive Cafés) are the current beneficiaries of demand for VR cafés.

6.China’s government will continue strengthening gaming industry regulations

China’s SAPPRFT introduced new regulations in 2016 which required mobile game developers to require games to be approved and acquire a version number in order to publish games in the app store. These new regulations have gone into effect this year and are now being enforced by all app stores. There are plenty more regulations in the pipeline for 2017 and now more than ever it is crucial for game developers to understand all these rules and regulations before entering the China market.

7.Pan Entertainment IP to drive growth in 2017

Pan Entertainment has been a growing trend over the past few years and we expect this trend to continue through into 2017. Games are now having tie-ins with TV shows, movies, books, comics and more. NetEase has already announced that they’ll be developing a movie based on their hit mobile game Onmyouji and Tencent is developing an anime around an eSports game. It is now common to hear about a partnership between a Chinese and US-based movie studio.

8.eSports will be the de-facto national sport for many Southeast Asian nations

The evolution of eSports in Southeast Asia has brought about cult-like status for pro gamers and teams, and enthusiasts are embracing competitions for games such as League of Legends, Overwatch and Defense of the Ancients 2 in many countries. Some of the hot eSports countries in the region are Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan.

9.China’s console market will remain unexciting

The Chinese console market has grown slightly but there are still a number of big obstacles preventing explosive growth. To grow in 2017 companies will need to employ lower console pricing, further title localizations and develop new Chinese titles. The China Hero Project represents an opportunity for Chinese development teams to contribute to the console industry’s growth and development in China. We will watch for whether Nintendo will enter China’s market as well.

10.Standalone games will find success on Steam and TGP in China and SEA

One trend we noticed last year was the resurgence of standalone games on Steam and TGP in China. Local payment support, cheaper pricing and simplified Chinese support has led to many titles finding success on Steam in the country. In addition, Steam held the second highest regional market share in Southeast Asia. We expect standalone game platforms like Steam and TGP to see notable growth in 2017 particularly in China, with many independent developers and AAA publishers supporting Simplified Chinese on these platforms to entice gamers. On the other hand, regulations could emerge that constrain Steam’s distribution in China.

11.Chinese and global game company investments to continue

2016 was a big year for acquisitions between Chinese and foreign companies. Tencent purchased Supercell for $8.6 billion, Giant led a consortium to buy Ceasars Games for $4.4 billion and Jagex was purchased by Zhongji Holdings for around $400 million. We expect Chinese games market leaders to grow by acquisition both domestically, and expand their footprint overseas with global investments.

12.Augmented Reality and Location Based Services will be used in more games

Pokémon Go was a worldwide phenomenon in 2016 and is still a top grossing title today. The game utilized augmented reality (AR) and location based services (LBS) in a fun, Pokémon collecting experience. The SAPPRFT is currently looking into whether Pokémon Go and other AR+LBS games can be safely distributed, given the threat they pose to national security and personal safety – but they are banned for now and the outcome of the ongoing investigation will be published soon. It may be that they allow games like Pokémon Go if strict rules are followed. Tencent introduced LBS features in King of Glory allowing players to compete in leagues made up of players in their province, city or even school/workplace. We expect more games to embrace aspects of AR and LBS functionality this year.

13.HTML 5 games will become more popular in 2017

HTML5 games are set to further increase in popularity this year thanks to the evolution of game quality, monetization systems and distribution channels. More than 6,000 HTML5 games were released in 2016 and we expect this number to grow in 2017.

14.More foreign games will compete for gamers across Southeast Asia

As eSports shines a beacon on Southeast Asian gamers and the region continues to be among the fastest growing for PC and mobile games revenue globally, foreign (Western) game developers will take the region more seriously and begin to compete for attention of the gamers and local online game operators or mobile distribution channels in order to take a piece of that impressive market.

15.Our final prediction is that Google Play will enter China this year.

This was the only prediction out of the 14 we made in January 2016 that did not come true last year. But we believe that 2017 will be the year that the Google Play store starts operations in China. However, we don’t expect the store to achieve a notable market share given the heavy competition between Android stores in China at the moment.（source：gamasutra）