作者：Oscar Clark

回首过去的一年，你会认为手机游戏市场并未发生太大的变化。虽然出现了比之前更多的游戏也创造了比之前更多的下载。如此看来游戏产业是很健康的吧？

Oscar Clark(from develop-online)

但问题就出现在我们所着眼的每用户平均收益。就拿整体的开发商收益来说，将其除以游戏数量得到的每游戏平均收益是5250美元。

这个数值非常吓人，但不幸的是事实比这更糟糕。我们知道真正的收益曲线并非直线；最大的收益集中于少部分排行前列的游戏。所以我们需要估算中间收益，即只有400美元。可以说游戏产业的淘金热已经结束了，畅销游戏榜单的前列并未发生多大的改变，显然我们身处的是一个已经成熟的市场。

如果平均开发成本是25000美元，为什么我们还要继续制作游戏呢？我不认为这是一种自负或单纯的想法。我们仍然受到像《Flappy Birds》和《纪念碑谷》等故事的影响，同时也受到了《Candy Crush》和《部落战争》等传奇的影响。我并不认为钱是唯一的驱动力量。我认为许多（或者大多数）独立开发者仍然是因为想要实现自己的游戏理念去制作游戏，并且只有赚到足够的钱他们才能继续制作游戏。

面对这个让人不快的冬天，我们是否能够期待在夏日到来时情况会发生改变？

在这个成熟的市场中，我们可以使用一些有帮助的策略。通常情况下，选择便宜便是其中之一。当然了，如果是基于免费模式的话这一选择便不可行。免费游戏模式的一个问题便是玩家仍然需要研究在游戏中什么才是值得自己购买的东西。

人们对于某些游戏存在着一些直接的怨恨—-例如《地下城守护者》便是最显著的例子。然而有些游戏却并未招来这样的异议，如《炉石传说》。对于开发商来说，提供更加可靠的游戏体验将是解决这一问题的策略。或者还有一个选择便是努力制作更棒的游戏。

虽说说来容易做起来难，但《纪念碑谷》和《The Room》的确带给人们很大的乐趣。这需要投入巨大的努力，创意与人才。人们总是认为付费游戏就带有较高的质量，而免费游戏的游戏玩法通常都缺少创造性，但事实却并非如此。在一个成熟的市场中，不管是商业模式的创造性还是游戏质量都会发生巨大的改变。我们必须改变这种看法。

改变意味着我们需要改变期待，改变角度并让人们去谈论游戏。当前一些最突出的改变并不是来自游戏设计本身，而在于发现。

这显然是一个关于发现的问题—-并且考虑到如此多的应用，出现这一问题其实一点都不让人惊讶。也难怪玩家和开发商们会为了触及彼此而开始寻求其它媒体的帮助。

在视频的影响下，2014年可以说是具有转折点的一年。我并不是在说Everyplay以及YouTube用于分享游戏视频的方法，而是像PewDiePie和Syndicate等个人以及Yogscast等群组在游戏社区中所表现的方式。我们经常会讲这些突出的YouTuber与《我的世界》和《使命召唤》等PC游戏联合在一起，但像《Crossy Road》和《Best Fiends》便竭尽全力去获取这类型网络名人的关注。

我们总是很容易被数字所吸引。像PewDiePie本身便拥有320万的订阅者，但真正有趣的还是长尾效应。就像如今任何人都可以制作游戏一样，任何人也可以创造他们自己的视频渠道了。不只游戏能够控制大众用户，同时观看视频游戏也成为了这一代年轻人文化在线观看视频的核心组成部分。

如果你超过14岁，你可能已经错过了这一内容。如今有很多人热衷于在Steam上玩最新的游戏的同时观看Yogscast的游戏视频。在这个时代，视频似乎已经彻底取代了收音机（和播客）。

这里所存在的教训在于我们不能像过去对待记者那样对待这些人。他们并不是基于同样的方式接受训练，他们只想要娱乐用户，即使用户可能只是自己的几个好友。

当然了，总是存在一些能够控制许多全球用户但却未忽视视频分享者的长尾效应的名人。创造带有友好分享性，创造玩家能够使用并作出创造性解释的特别时刻将比花费无数钱希望别人永远都不会发现视频是要钱的来的成功。你将会被发现并且你的品牌会受到损害，同时你的Youtuber的真实性也会受到损害。不管怎样你可以通过广告或其它推广形式进行支付，且一定是预付。这并不意味着你不能巧妙地使用媒体，只是告诉你不要隐藏自己正在花钱的事实。

未花任何钱便得到关注是有可能发生的，并且这比广告来得有趣。然而这要求你投入更多努力去吸引关注。就像 Hipster Whale（游戏邦注：澳大利亚的独立游戏工作室）的员工便决定通过添加PewDueOue的dog去传达他们对于《Frogger》的敬意。他们系统地创造了社交媒体去鼓励所有人发送/评论有关PewDiePie的dog的内容。他们投入了许多努力并专注于实现目标，如果游戏未能取得成功这便是毫无价值的内容。

在所有的开发者尝试着去复制这一行动前，先不要烦恼。所有人都会使用自己的dog去发送游戏—-你可以做些不同的尝试。

这便是我所认为的产业的希望。我们已经从市场营销中看到了产业中不断发展的专业性，实际上，市场营销并不是什么肮脏的内容，而是我们必须整合到设计和操作过程中的必要元素。

这是一个不断成熟的市场，并且只要应用商店仍然占据支配优势，这种情况便不会发生改变。我们可以选择遵循已建立的模式并基于运气行事，希望自己的游戏能够成为那个突然倍受欢迎的佼佼者，或者我们也可以选边站将视频，eSports，社交病毒等等具有可能性的内容添加到自己的游戏设计中。

对于许多开发者来说，2014年是非常艰难的一年；除非我们决定作出改变并创造出更棒的游戏，否则2015年将依然如此。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转功，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

The gold rush is over

By Oscar Clark

Everyplay’s Oscar Clark ponders how the mobile market has matured and what devs can do to get their game noticed

As we say goodbye to 2014 I am again drawn to the tradition of Janus, the two-faced Roman god who gave us the name of the first month of the year.

Looking back at the year gone past, you would be forgiven for thinking that not much has changed. There are more games than ever before, there have been more downloads than ever before. What a healthy industry eh?

The trouble comes where we look at the average revenue per user. Taking the total developer revenue and dividing that by the number of games it’s been estimated that the average revenue per game is $5,250.

That’s pretty scary, but unfortunately it’s worse than that. We know that the real revenue curve isn’t a straight line; the vast majority of the revenue is concentrated in a small number of top ranking games. So we need to estimate the median revenue, which is apparently only $400. The gold rush is totally over and, looking at how little the top grossing charts have changed, it’s seems we are in a matured market.

Given the average cost of development is $25,000, why are we still making games? I don’t think it’s just a case of ego or naivety. We remain influenced by stories like Flappy Birds and Monument Valley, as well as the phenomena of Candy Crush and Clash of Clans. However, I don’t think the money is the only driver. I think many (most?) individual developers are driven by the desire to realise their game ideas and to earn enough to be able to keep making games.

Given this winter of discontent, where can we find signs of a glorious summer to come?

There are several strategies available to us in a mature market. Normally ‘go cheaper’ is one of them. Of course, with the free-to-play model this option isn’t really possible. Or is it? One of the problems with the free-to-play model is that players are still learning about what they consider valuable (or reasonable) to buy within the game.

There is some outspoken resentment over some games – Dungeon Keeper being the most obvious example of the year. However, other titles have had no such objections, such as Hearthstone. Offering a better more trustworthy experience might be a strategy for developers. Then there is the option to make a better game.

Easier said than done, but there is no doubt that Monument Valley and The Room just ooze visceral pleasure. That takes considerable effort, innovation and talent. People confuse the idea of quality with premium games, of course, and sadly there has been less innovation in gameplay terms for F2P games, but SSI have said repeatedly that need not be the case. However, neither innovation on business model or game quality will shift the needle hugely in a mature market. That requires disruption.

Being disruptive means we have to shift expectations, to change perspectives and to get people talking about out games. Some of the best disruption right now is not happening in game design itself, but in discovery.

There is clearly a discovery problem – and it’s no surprise given the huge numbers of apps. So no wonder players and developers are seeking other media in order to reach put to each other.

2014 was a milestone year in the impact of video. I’m not just talking about Everyplay and the way YouTube is used to capture and share gameplay videos, but the way individual personalities like PewDiePie and Syndicate and groups like Yogscast can have on games communities. We often associate these kind of elite YouTubers with PC titles like Minecraft and Call Of Duty, but some mobile content like Crossy Road and Best Fiends have deliberately reached out to gain the attention of these kind of online celebrities.

It’s easy to get caught up on the numbers of the individuals. PewDiePie alone has over 32m subscribers, but what is really interesting is the long tail. Just as anyone can make a game now, anyone can create their own video channel. Not only do games now command a mass-market playing audience, watching games being played either as eSports or as context for a discussion, has become a central part of the online viewing for this generation of youth culture.

If, like me, you are over 14, you have probably missed it. Loyalty to specific people at specific timeslots is so last century. There is so much to enjoy out there that I can be watching Yogscast on one screen whilst playing my latest Steam game (in my case, Terratech) at the same time. Video has killed the radio (and podcast) for this generation.

The lesson is that we can’t treat these guys the way we used to treat journalists. They aren’t trained the same way, they want more than column inches, they want to entertain their audience, even if it’s just half-a-dozen of their own mates.

Of course, there will always be the celebrities who command huge global audiences but don’t ignore the long tail of video sharers. Making your game share-friendly, creating magical moments which players can use and interpret creatively for themselves will pay off far more than paying dollars in a brown envelope hoping no-one will find out that the video is a paid advert. You will be found out and it will damage your brand as much as it damages the authenticity of the Youtuber. By all means pay them for an advert or other form of promotion, but be upfront. That doesn’t mean you can’t be clever about how you use the medium, just don’t hide that you are paying.

Getting attention without paying can happen and can be much more interesting than advertising. However, it requires dedicated effort to engage. The fabulous guys at Hipster Whale decided to add PewDiePie’s dog into their homage to Frogger. But that wasn’t enough to get the Youtube king’s attention. They systematically worked their social media to encourage everyone they could to tweet/comment about the game and PewDiePie’s dog. That takes a lot of effort and focus to achieve and would have been worthless if the game hadn’t also been fabulous.

And before all you developers try to replicate this act, don’t bother. Everyone will be sending games with his dog – do something different. Disrupt. Change expectations. Followers aren’t remembered, so be the leader.

That’s where I think we find the hope for the industry. We are already seeing an increasing professionalising of the industry in terms of marketing, and a realisation that marketing isn’t a dirty word but something we have to incorporate into our design and operations process.

This is a maturing market and will remain so as long as the app stores remain so dominant. We can choose to follow the establish models and play the lottery game, hoping our game is the one which comes up top, or we can put the odds in our favour and design into our game the potential for video, eSports, social virality, and so on.

2014 has been a hard year for a lot of developers; 2015 will be more of the same unless we decide to change things and make better games.(source:develop-online)