作者：Keith Andrew

上周，苹果公布了破纪录的总收入、利润和手机销售额。

然而，考虑到苹果没能在一个季度内卖出5000万部iPhone的事实，下一季度的预测就有点儿保守了。

那么，我们来听听专家们的意见：

移动游戏行业的成功是不是过于依赖苹果了？期望平台不断发展是不是太不现实了？在苹果的财政破纪录后，投资商却出让股票的做法是对的吗？

apple-logo-red(from iphone5-review.org)

Brian Baglow（行业顾问）

看诺基亚就知道了。

Dave Castelnuovo（Bolt Creative工作室）

人们往往有从众心理，特别是在股市。

人们认为苹果现在只能走下坡路，所以一边预期接下来的一两年将会发生什么事，一边卖出手中的股票。

我当然觉得这种观点有道理：苹果现在是行业的老大了——它刚刚创造了史上最大的公司收益纪录，物极必反，所以现在它只能走下坡路了。

就像Brian暗示的，许多公司到达巅峰阶段后，基本上不可能坚持太久——大约除了Exxon公司（游戏邦注：美国最大的石油公司）。

然而，盲目地将过去的模式套用到未来的发展趋势上，也是危险的。要让一家公司丧失地位，必须有其他公司占领它的市场份额或用新产品取代其市场。我不觉得苹果存在这样的对手——至少在接下来的几年内。

当然，Android通过发行廉价的设备，对iOS的赢利和地位造成很大冲击，但苹果极仍是强大的竞争对手：美国Verizon和AT&T公司刚刚宣布iPhone的销售额破记录。Verizon售出的所有的新手机中，有75%是iPhone。

当苹果推出新设计时，它就会致命地打击到Android，仍会把谷歌远远甩在后面。这种事有可能发生，也有可能不发生。但全球的智能手机市场仍然在稳步发展中。

最重要的是，苹果仍然必须让人们对它的设备感到兴奋。新技术的突破会很惊人，所以他们不必继续依赖设计，但我个人认为它仍然会研究设计。另外，我真心觉得没有其他公司能在这方面战胜苹果。

Christopher Kassulke（HandyGames公司）

行业依赖的只有消费者。

Will Luton（Doctor Monolith）

如果没有苹果，我们可能仍然处于前iPhone的原始时期——J2ME、滑盖手机、和弦铃声下载……平板电脑系统可能只有Windows。笔记本可能全是IBM的ThinkPad。

苹果给所有人当头一棒：如果你不进步，别人就会把你淘汰掉。

如果苹果停滞不前了，那么所有进步就会放缓。

因此，我认为苹果现在是被投资者踩在脚下——他们不想要微弱的进步，他们要技术和用户开发上的突飞猛进。

Jonny Koo（Com2US公司）

苹果的股值确实大幅下降，但股票持有人必须在某个时刻兑现投资。破记录的收益来得正是时候。

我认为苹果的股票和它作为手机游戏/应用平台的领导者之间没有太多关联。

我相信它能保持第一平台的地位很长一段时间，正如Chris提出的，只要用户还看苹果的设备来消费游戏和应用，那么我们的市场就在那里。

好吧，我认为现在还不是出现改变的时候。

我更担心的是，在“依赖”某物的情况下，这么多个月过去了，总收入排行榜的前几名开发商似乎没什么变化。

出现在排行榜的公司似乎永远都是那几家。

现在的情况就像在很早以前的时候，运营商只要“留意”排名前15的发行公司，就等于控制了市场——但这时候充当“老大哥”不是苹果，也不是谷歌，而是这么一个事实——开发公司要获得曝光太困难了，因为经常被收购或通过交叉推销服务自我。

David Thomson（Ludometrics）

投资者开始赚钱之时，就是股票价格下滑之际——因为苹果成就了史上最赚钱的一年，所以许多人觉得现在是时候收到回报了，我对此并不感到太惊讶。

这个行业依靠的是那些能把最多人聚集起来的人——正如有人指出的，苹果已经让市场朝着更好或更坏的的方向改变（或二者兼有），但是我们依靠的是那些持有它的设备的人，靠他们玩、买和向亲朋好友宣传我们的产品。

Keith Andrew（PocketGamer.biz）

我认为当说到“玩家在哪里，我们就去哪里”的论断时，我们可能正看着错误的方向。

我想那正是像THQ公司在2008年应该可以预言到的，那时苹果应用商店还没出现；或者像许多“硬核”发行商在Wii出现以前可以设想到的。

在这个行业，失败是很容易的事，因为我们期待的东西与现在的优胜者太相像了。

事实上，能够夺走苹果的王冠的不可能是另一种移动设备，不会是比iPhone更高级，或更廉价，或外观更多变、或功能更丰富的手机。相反地，它会是一种改变消费者游戏方式或游戏对象的东西。

手机游戏热短期内不会消退，并且它正在占领剩下的市场。如果说有什么可能威胁到苹果和谷歌的，那就是能够连接到其他游戏设备的移动平台。

如果我们都期待“下一个重大事物”就是出现另一种移动设备，那么结果必定会让我们感到震惊。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

All eyes on Apple: Is the industry too reliant on iPhone for success?

by Keith Andrew

Last week saw Apple post record revenues, profits, and handset sales.

However, a slightly retracted forecast for the forthcoming quarter, combined with the fact Apple wasn’t quite able to sell 50 million iPhones in one quarter – yes, that’s 50 million – meant the giant’s share nose dived in the hours that followed.

So, we asked the Mavens:

Is the industry too reliant on Apple for success? Is it unrealistic to expect the platform to grow forever, and were investors right to sell off stock following the firm’s record breaking results?

Brian Baglow, consultant

See: Nokia.

Dave Castelnuovo, Bolt Creative

People tend to behave in a herd mentality, the stock market especially.

There is an impression that Apple can only go downhill from here, so people are selling the stock in anticipation of what will happen over the next year or two.

I can certainly see the point of view that says that since Apple is currently number one – and it just reported one of the largest corporate earnings in history – it can only be downhill from here.

Like Brian alluded to, there have been plenty of companies in this position and no one- except for maybe Exxon – can manage to hold onto it for more than a few years.

However, there is some danger in mindlessly applying patterns in the past to the future. In order for a company to lose its position, someone else needs to take over its market share or cannibalise its market with a new product. I just don’t see that happening with Apple – at least in the next few years.

Sure Android is giving iOS a run for its money and gained their position through the release of cheap devices, but Apple is a strong competitor. Verizon and AT&T in the US just announced record iPhone sales. 75 percent of all new phones that Verizon sold were iPhones.

When Apple releases a new device it will obliterate Android, leaving Google the rest of the year to try to catch up. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won’t. But the smartphone market worldwide is still growing at a solid rate.

The bottom line is that Apple still has to get people excited about its devices. A new technological breakthrough would be nice so they don’t have to continue relying on design, but I personally think it still has it within, and I honestly don’t see any other company that has the ability to take that away.

Christopher Kassulke, HandyGames

The only people the industry relies on are consumers.

Will Luton, Doctor Monolith

Without Apple, we’d still be on the slow march of pre-iPhone bullshit – J2ME, slide-out keyboards and polyphonic ringtone downloads. Tablet computing would be Windows with a stylus. Laptops would all look like IBM ThinkPads.

Apple serves (or at least has served) a function of shitting everyone up. If you don’t keep moving and bettering, they’ll wipe you out.

If Apple stops, then all progress slows.

So to that end, I think Apple is being kept on its toes by investors – they’re saying incremental is not what they want. They want groundbreaking leaps in technology and user adoption – it’s Apple’s place.

Jonny Koo, Com2US

It was a big drop, but stock holders need to realise their investment at some point. A record high revenue report is just the right timing.

I don’t see much relation between Apple’s stock and its leadership as a mobile gaming/app platform.

I believe it will hold the number one platform position for quite a while and, as Chris mentioned, as long as Apple’s devices are where our users go to to consume games and apps, that’s where our market is.

Well, I don’t see this changing for the time being.

What I’m more worried about in the case of “relying on” something is that I don’t see much change in the top grossing ranked publishers for the past how many months.

The ones that show up there never seem to change.

It feels like the old days where the carriers started to “take care of” the top 15 publishers and they would dominate the market – except that this time the big brother isn’t Apple or Google, but rather the fact that it is so difficult to get exposure as it is often bought or self-served through cross promotions.

David Thomson, Ludometrics

Stock prices often drop when investors start cashing in – with Apple posting the single most profitable year in corporate history, I’m not surprised quite a lot of people feel like now’s the time to take their own profits.

The industry’s reliant on whoever happens to bring large amounts people together – as others have pointed out, Apple has changed the market for better or worse (or both, more probably), but it’s the people who have its devices in their hands who we rely on to play, to buy and to (hopefully) tell their friends about what we make.

Keith Andrew, PocketGamer.biz

I think when it comes to ‘we go where the gamers are’ statements, we may all be looking in the wrong direction.

That, I expect, is exactly what the likes of those at THQ would have said in 2008 before the launch of the App Store. Or scores of ‘hardcore’ publishers before Wii came along.

It’s very easy to get left behind in this industry because we expect what comes next to look much like what’s currently top dog.

In reality, the firm that takes Apple’s ‘crown’ isn’t likely to be another mobile on its own. It’s not going to be a phone that’s a bit flashier than iPhone, or cheaper, or features changeable covers, has a maps app that works, or some other gimmick.

Instead, something will come along that changes the way consumers play – or, rather, what they use to play.

Mobile gaming isn’t going to go away any time soon. Rather, it’s merging with the rest of the industry. What may undo Apple – and, indeed, Google – isn’t another mobile platform on its own, but a mobile platform that’s able to link up with the other devices consumers want to play game on.

If we’re all expecting the ‘next big thing’ to be another mobile, then we could all be in for a shock.(source:pocketgamer)