作者：Fraser MacInnes

预言是一件危险的事，特别是在技术行业。任何预言家都应该做好期望完全落空的心理准备。所以，等到2013年末，我极有可能发现自己的预言只是让自己变成大家的笑柄。不过，我还是愿意当第一个吃螃蟹的人。

1、黑莓10叫好不叫座

可以放心的是，这款手机看起来就价值不菲，并且搭载了全新的触屏操作系统。等到它正式发布，我肯定会跑进手机店里把玩一番。

但是，考虑到最重要的手机生态系统因素，我仍然不会购买，并且我认为大多数人应该也不会买。

黑莓必须克服的软件障碍实在是太大了，大到几乎无法克服。这意味着RIM公司将返回它的“商业第一”的模式。这不是一个糟糕的战略，但是会缩小黑莓10的用户圈。这很有可能。

2、第三方应用商店将灭绝

Amazon Appstore和Google Play将继续主宰Android的推广渠道，设备制造商会将订制内容推广纳入自己的战略范畴，让这些大公司为他们承担压力。

另外，手机营销将从流量收费转向计价模式，这意味着更加注重留存率，推广墙将减少；刺激型访问量来源也会严重影响第三方应用商店的数量。

3、应用曝光服务开始消失

这个行业的内容控制者开始压制某些类型的市场交易；最显而易见的是苹果的条款2.25，主要是为了禁止推广墙和帮助游戏冲入排行榜的刺激型访问量服务。

但那只解释了为什么经营并保持数据导向型游戏曝光的服务会更加困难，而没有回答为什么这类服务会变得越来越冷门。

我个人认为，与其说曝光服务的宗旨是满足玩家的需求，为他们提供其感兴趣的游戏，不如说是为了让开发商的游戏更加显眼。

粗略看来，所有大应用商店看似为玩家提供了各种选择，但令其难堪的是，它们还是难以满足口味不同的玩家的需求。你是否曾听好友说，“我在应用商店里找了半天，还是没有看到好游戏“？我也找不到。

曝光服务离间了开发商和玩家之间的关系，应该取缔。

4、iOS 7将让所有人失望

在创新和改进之间，苹果总是保持微妙的平衡，但它越来越倾向于后者——在过去的24个月里，iOS已经证明了这一点。

许多人预言，既然现在是由Jonathan Ive掌舵开发iOS的部门，那么iOS的新版本应该有很大变化。

问题是，虽然苹果的操作系统仍然是极其强大和完善的，但就与竞争对手比拼创新功能而言，它已经落后了。

无论是学习Windows Phone和RIM所倡导的创新，还是吓跑喜欢他们智能手机的消费者，iOS要发生实质性进步非常困难。不成功便成仁。

5、Windows Phone将在市场站稳脚根

除了一些基于Windows的平台兼容性引发的混乱，甚至最铁杆的苹果或Android迷也不得不承认，Windows Phone 8确实很强悍。

作为微软现在的摇钱树和支柱，Windows Phone将会继续给平台市场造成冲击。

众所周知，微软始终无力成为手机市场竞争中的重量级玩家，除非它肯在智能手机行业加大投入，争得一线生机。

但是，如果它舍得花钱，情况就不一样了。在2013年，我们将看到Windows Phone将会在去年争取到的市场份额上再接再厉。

6、基于Android的游戏机将有力衔接智能手机游戏开发和电视

我是Ouya游戏主机概念的超级粉丝，所以我非常期待它的竞争对手Game Stick将如何表现。

Ouya不仅价格便宜，而且向用户开放开发者套件，在很大程度上降低了开发成本和准入门槛，实在太民主，太有革命性了，有理由让人感到兴奋。

无论是硬件还是软件，标价都相当诱人，这意味着它将进一步模糊游戏平台之间的界线，任何成功打入这一领域的举措都将导致整个行业范围的软件价格革命。

2013年将埋下这条导火线，到明年的圣诞节，至少有一台游戏主机将在市场站稳脚根。

7、所有人终将接受HTML5不是一种平台的事实

HTML5一度是手机行业的宠儿，直到所有人都开始意识到，消费者并不关心它能否解决开发者的问题。

因为技术能带来与消费者的需要并不直接相关的便利，于是认为消费者将与技术一起进步，这是我们的一个错误判断（包括我在内）。

这个错误的假设引起了人们对另一个真相的关注：HTML5现在只是并且始终只是一种能解决一些问题的技术，但并不是跨平台应用开发的万灵药。

到2013年，它也仍然只是一种技术。

8、Zynga将稍微恢复元气

许多公司都在2012年跌了跟头，但很难想象Zynga会跌得这么惨。因此我的预言并不危险。

试图摆脱休闲游戏的束缚，并且在手机平台上冒险推出非常硬核的单人游戏如《Horn》，暗示了该公司已经走上转型之路。

不再一味追求积累玩家人数，而转向相对低的平均玩家收益，寻找能吸引活跃度高、有粘性、肯消费的玩家的游戏，这不算是令人惊奇的策略。

对我而言，这种策略意味着甚至更大的转变，即从休闲转向硬核游戏（不过是免费模式的，不像《Horn》）。

9、手机平台上将出现更多免费的PvP游戏

只要你能找出一款以PvP为特色的免费游戏的魔法配方，你就能大赚一笔。媒体对Supercell的争相报道就是有力的证明。

真实玩家的攀比和竞争一直以来就是刺激虚拟商品消费的重要因素，而现在，一些成功的游戏用铁板钉钉的数字颠覆了这条定律。它们的成功配方就是现成的样版。

不难想象，到明年的这个时候，无论是在哪个应用商店，总收益排行榜的前五名都将是PvP免费游戏。有可能。

10、大数据只是一时风尚，到明年的这个时候，将不再有人跟风

被视作收益万能药的“大数据”，是游戏大事圈中的一个新话题。

支持这个话题继续的真正的产品将越来越少。

在游戏业中，“大数据”的实践意义到底是什么，它的适用期是多长（将如何影响声称具有大数据的公司的价值），有没有确切的案例能证明它能产生的、为谁产生的真实财政价值？

更不要说缺少任何可靠的证据能说明利用“大数据”的工具确实促进了整个行业的发展，而不只是给免费游戏开发商提供一个斯金纳实验箱，给发行商稍微节省成本。

烙着另一个所谓的“良方妙招”印记的大数据将成为2013年的HTML5。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Definitely maybe: Top 10 mobile games industry predictions for 2013

by Fraser MacInnes

Making predictions is precarious, especially in the tech industry.

Not as precarious as trying to balance a fridge freezer on top of three stacked space hoppers, perhaps, but more precarious than trying to pilot a giraffe wearing roller-skates.

Either way, it’s a devilish business and should only be entered into with the full expectation that one can, and often will, turn out to be comprehensively wrong.

So bearing that in mind, here are ten – mostly unfounded, mostly possible – predictions that may end up making a buffoon of me by the end of the year. Feet first – let’s go!

1. Blackberry 10 will be pretty good and hardly anyone will buy it

The hardware is reassuringly expensive-looking and the OS is a gesture driven disruption to the current mobile OS paradigm. Which means I’ll almost certainly pop into a shop to fondle one and coo at it for a while after it’s released.

That all-important ecosystem factor will still prevent me from actually buying one though, as I imagine it will others too.

The software mountain Blackberry has to climb is just too steep to meaningfully scale, which means RIM will revert back to its business-first approach. It’s not a bad strategy, but it will confine Blackberry 10 to a smaller pool of customers. Probably.

2. Third-party app stores will fall away

The Amazon Appstore and Google Play will continue to dominate Android’s distribution mechanism and OEMs will opt to make bespoke content distribution a smaller part of their strategy, letting the big players do the heavy lifting for them.

Additionally, the shift in performance marketing in mobile away from volume traffic deals and towards more cost-per-action focused models, with a higher importance placed on retention, the resultant reduction in offer walls and incentivised traffic sources will also have an impact on the number of third-party app stores out there. Probably.

3. App discovery services will start to die

The content gatekeepers of this industry are starting to clamp down on certain types of marketing deal, most notably with Apple’s much publicised clause 2.25, which chiefly nixes offer walls and incentivised traffic services that effectively, game the top ten charts.

But that’s only the reason why it will be harder to run and maintain data driven game discovery services – not why they will become less popular.

To me, discovery services have always been about making developers’ titles more visible than they have been about serving an actual consumer need to discover the games they are interested in.

A cursory search on any of the big application stores will turn up an embarrassment of riches for consumers of all tastes these days. Have you ever heard any of your mobile gaming chums say, ‘I searched the App Store but couldn’t find any good games to play’? Me neither.

Discovery services get the relationship between developer and consumer backward and their presence will (read: should) dwindle. Probably.

4. iOS 7 will be less of an upgrade than everyone wants or expects

Apple has always tread a fine line between innovation and incremental improvements, tending more toward the latter where iOS is concerned over the past 24 months.

Many are predicting a big shake up for the next major version of iOS with Jonathan Ive now at the helm of the division that develops it.

The problem is, while Apple has continued to serve up an extremely robust and feature complete operating system, it has given away much in terms of innovative features to its competitors.

It will be hard for iOS to evolve significantly without either aping innovations pioneered by Windows Phone and RIM, or scaring off customers who like their smartphones vanilla-flavoured. It will definitely either kill or completely fix Maps though. Probably.

5. Windows Phone will steadily gain ground

In spite of some confusion over the cross compatibility of Microsoft’s jamboree of Windows-based platforms, even the most hysterical Apple/Android zealot would concede that Windows Phone 8 is a formidable beast.

As is Microsoft’s cash war chest and the muscle it is currently, and will continue to, throw behind the platform’s marketing push.

Microsoft has known for long enough that it simply can’t afford to not be a significant player in the mobile market and it will throw money at its smartphone division until it has carved out a big enough slice to breath a sigh of relief.

It’s not a case of if but when, and 2013 will see Windows Phone building on the market share it snaffled in 2012. Probably.

6. Android-powered consoles will build a meaningful bridge between smartphone game development and your TV

I’m a big fan of the Ouya as a concept and I’m eager to see what the guys behind Game Stick can produce.

The idea of a cheap under the TV box that brings the expressive and creative power of low barrier mobile development into the living room, is just too democratic and potentially disruptive a concept to not get unreasonably excited about.

It’s a development that further blurs the line between gaming platforms and with an impulse-buy price tag attached to both the hardware and the software, any successful entrant into this space could end up shaping an industry-wide evolution of software pricing.

The seeds of this will be sewn in 2013, and by Christmas next year, at least one box will be showing signs of gaining a real foothold. Probably.

7. Everyone will finally accept that HTML5 is not a platform

HTML5 was a mobile industry darling until everyone started to realise that consumers couldn’t care less about the problems that it solves for developers.

Expecting consumers to move with the tech because of a convenience factor that doesn’t directly serve their needs was a judgment error many of us made (myself included).

It’s a wrong assumption that has brought into focus the clear fact that HTML5 is and always has been a technology that can elegantly solve some problems, but it’s not the silver bullet for cross platform app deployment.

And it won’t be in 2013, either. Probably.

8. Zynga will have a bit of a second wind

Many companies had a rotten year in 2012, but it’s hard to imagine Zynga’s problems getting much worse, which makes this prediction a relatively safe bet.

Slicing out a cross-section of casual titles wholesale and taking a chance on very core, single player titles like Horn on mobile, are signs of a company that’s grinding pivot shows signs of winding up to a potential turnaround.

Instead of stacking its users as high a possible but with a comparatively low ARPU (average revenue per user), looking for games that attract highly active, sticky players that monetise well would not be a surprising portfolio strategy.

That, for me, would mean an even bigger shift away from casual to core titles (albeit, free-to-play ones, unlike Horn). Probably.

9. There will be a LOT more F2P PvP games competing on mobile

The mind-boggling numbers pouring out of Supercell’s press are testament to just how much money there is to be made if you can crack the magic formula for a free-to-play game with a significant focus on player versus player battles.

It has been established long-since that competitive, real person challenges are significant triggers for virtual goods purchases and now – with some major successes to bear out the methodology in cold hard numbers – the bandwagon for this particular template is boarding.

It’s not hard to imagine all five of the top spots on the highest grossing charts of every application store being free-to-play games with player versus player battles by this time next year. Probably.

10. Big data will be the embarrassing fad that nobody wants to admit they championed by this time next year

The flapping of mouths about the importance of the magical revenue elixir, ‘big data’ is a fresh epidemic on the gaming event circuit.

The actual products that back up the talk continue to be thin on the ground.

As are real working definitions for what constitutes actionable real ‘big data’ in the games industry, what its shelf life is (and how that affects the value of companies that claim to have it) and transparent case studies that underline the real financial value that it creates and for whom.

Not to mention the lack of any actual proof that the tools that make use of ‘big data’ actually stimulate industry-wide growth, as opposed to just helping developers of free-to-play games make better skinner boxes and publishers’ slightly more effective cost per install deals.

Big data bears all the hallmarks of yet another so called ‘silver bullet’ and it will be 2013′s HTML5. Definitely.(source:pocketgamer)