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二十篇系列:Boss Key Productions和Telltale Games谈不适应陨落

发布时间:2021-04-19 08:57:14 Tags:,

二十篇系列:Boss Key Productions和Telltale Games谈不适应陨落

第一篇

超级判断:It is my experience that most people would rather be right and fail at solving the problem s than be wrong but overcome the challenges.

我的经验告诉我,大部分的人在遇到问题的时候,都倾向先证明自己是对的,而不是专注在克服挑战

第二篇

从过往获得版号的游戏设计模型看,游戏表达方向的钳制并不明显,仍然处在常规化范畴

从已经过审的名单和名单对应的游戏实质内容看,基调和格调,并没有预想的那般严苛

严肃性比预想的要弱一些

版号底下,并没有实现产品精品化这个宣传诉求

几千款过审样品还是能说明问题的

这也是我近期一直在想的一个问题:产品设计端的合规压力是不是被过度解读了(这里不算其他层面的合规,只看产品设计)

比如审核层面并不明显限制某款游戏是不是侵权抄袭的,比如游戏中的经济模型是不是明显主张有钱就能为所欲为,比如游戏中的机制和交互逻辑对人性层面的挖掘是不是偏负面…

如果真要卡这些逻辑,大量的游戏,其实是通不过的

(过往很多过审的游戏,用户角度的吐槽点,和前几年比起来,差别并不明显)

我觉得问题点,仍然会是老生常谈的三个:

A,第一个是全龄适用性,这会让游戏表达低龄偏好妥协(基本上不存在分级想象了)

B,第二个是发行商责任制,特别是允许低龄用户参与基础上如何对低龄用户进行体验限制和消费限制

C,第三个是承担社会效应责任,特别是合规(比如立场正确)和传承文化(很多游戏开始和各种文化机构进行表面化联动)

Telltale Game of Thrones (from computer and video games.com)

Telltale Game of Thrones (from computer and video games.com)

第三篇

Apex Legends时隔一万年终于说自己的用户数据了Apex Legends hits 100m players

要知道:Apex Legends以前的疯狂数据是8小时100万用户,3天1000万用户,一周2500万用户,首月5000万用户

之后对用户数据就很神秘了,只在第九个月的时候透露有7000万用户

看起来用户在第一个月就释放一半了

第四篇

天舟文化展示了策略游戏的低活跃用户量级的超级运营成效

截图中的游戏B,虽然隐藏了,但产品无疑是王者纷争

这款策略产品在季度活跃用户量级只有25万(Q3和Q4)以内,实现了季度付费用户4万级,季度ARPU值1300元左右,季度流水5000万左右

这应该是策略产品线一个很典型的模板了(另外一个是当前的三国志2017)

(当然,天舟文化的当前其他游戏产品线处于竞争力下滑状态,这也直接驱动了游爱7.65亿的商誉减值,大概率天舟的翻盘作品要押宝忘仙2)

第五篇

InnGames早先这段访谈很有意思:一家看起来快要起势,前景好像一片光明的公司,基本上是挡不住快速堆人,扩张规模的诱惑的

大半局面就会变成是:

A,团队很大,但只是一群乌合之众

B,管理是公司最头疼的事,成本管控其次,产品排到了最后

C,烧钱太快,快到不可想象

大公司瘾的架势刚拉开,马上就要以最困难的方式谢幕了…

When things are running very well the best idea seems to be to hire more people and do more of everything, but it is especially important to stay true to your growth strategy in those times. Be careful not to over-spend, over-hire; in hindsight that was really important for us.

Also, we focused on hiring the right people. It wasn’t about the mass of people, it was really about the quality.

第六篇

看来,市场对Applovin的定位都是KKR- backed(图一,图二,图三是招股书)

KKR-backed AppLovin raises $2 billion in IPO -source

看了下Applovin招股书披露的Management,10个人,其中3个有资本巨鳄KKR背景…

Herald Chen,Edward Oberwager,Cathy Sun

Mr. Oberwager and Ms. Sun, members of our board of directors, are affiliated with KKR and Mr. Chen, our President and Chief Financial Officer and a member of our board of directors, was previously affiliated with KKR and is a limited partner in kKR Denali

看起来Applovin是KKR在移动互联网前台非常重要的博弈杠杆啊

第七篇

不得不说,Foxnext的Marvel Strike Force和Kabam的Marvel Contest of Champions的竞争力几乎相当,且Marvel Strike Force的价值释放比Marvel Contest of Champions来得快

虽然Marvel Contest of Champions已经实现了超长运营周期,但是Marvel Strike Force的变现力在2020年和Marvel Contest of Champions相当后,可能2021就会迎来超越的拐点

这样Marvel Contest of Champions和Marvel Strike Force在移动端,一年就可以给Marvel贡献6亿美元的超高水准

第八篇

《庄子外篇达生》把:守拙+专注+约束自己的锋芒+沉得住气,四大逻辑写得流漓尽致

比如:

达生之情者,不务生之所无以为;达命之情者,不务知之所无奈何

吾处身也,若厥株拘;吾执臂也,若槁木之枝;虽天地之大,万物之多,而唯蜩翼之知。吾不反不侧,不以万物易蜩之翼,何为而不得

纪渻子为王养斗鸡。十日而问:“鸡已乎?”曰:“未也,方虚憍而恃气。”十日又问,曰:“未也,犹应向景。”十日又问,曰:“未也,犹疾视而盛气。”十日又问,曰:“几矣。鸡虽有鸣者,已无变矣,望之似木鸡矣,其德全矣,异鸡无敢应者,反走矣。”

第九篇

和平精英,王者荣耀,欢乐斗地主,开心消消乐,迷你世界,球球大作战之类的产品(包括海外产品线的Roblox,Candy Crush Saga,Pokemon Go,Homescapes)

非常强大的一个环节是:长周期保持用户新增的高位稳定性

长周期用户高位稳定新增,是很多产品维持在头部竞争力的关键

依赖存量运营是很多游戏天花板被压低和快速衰败的原因之一

从王者荣耀的日均1亿DAU来讲,MOBA自身有非常典型的劝退机制,包括操作,匹配,关系链,游戏不符合预期的迭代(很多游戏身上的坏毛病,王者荣耀其实也都有)…但是王者荣耀有国内所有的游戏很难企及的优势:数年最顶级的用户新增能力(很多新游戏,只能吸引用户三两天,这是新游戏运营不起来的关键,增量盘小导致存量盘更小)

这也是王者荣耀在很多人的朋友圈里玩的人越来越少,但是用户活跃依然惊人的关键

王者荣耀的游戏渗透性远远超过了用户的理解范畴

王者荣耀,或者和平精英的渗透性,要是放在Strategy产品身上,那变现量级,绝对逆天

第十篇

The Games Fund在目前的游戏行业环境,其实是很难带预期的

3000万美元,打算投注几十个项目

这就意味着类似Second Dinner,Theorycraft Games,Dream Games,Haven Studios,Manticore Games…在最早期的时候是参与不了的

这种大牌开发者创建的公司,投一次,基金就可以歇业了

同时,这种拆零法还有一个最大的风险性:带预期的高手,其实是自带超额募资属性的,很难会接受这种单次几十万美元的试错

在当前的环境下,能接受超小额融资的,大概率是很难带预期的

特别是产品型特征这么明确的情况下

第十一篇

惠程终于公告了对哆可梦9.08亿的商誉减值,我们早先就分析了这种不合理的逻辑:一方面利润狂掉,提出高达9.08亿的商誉减值(参阅图一),一方面在年中以高达36亿人民币的价格收购哆可梦的剩余股权(参阅图二)

我们在Q3就分析到这个问题了

一方面利润持续断崖式下跌直到2020Q3变成亏损,另一方面,又给了核心资产哆可梦做了36亿的高估值

也就是标的公司的产品竞争力变弱了,但却增值了

这种背离模型基本上会带来运作障碍吧

对同一个标的公司,在同一个周期,既做高估值,又做高商誉减值

第十二篇

重新推荐下两个礼拜前的朋友圈,这个对Cofounder的要求其实是高标准的:互相承诺,效忠于共同努力的愿景

对企业来说,成为联合创始人,起码得是承担企业未来的责任人

对企业的责任感,对其他Cofounder的责任感,可能是企业可持续协同的关键职业节操

很多分崩离析的合伙人,眼里应该是只有自己和自己的利益的

One of the biggest reasons new startups fail is founder fit.

Just like you shouldn’t just marry the first girl that takes your fancy – rather make sure she’s got a personality that meshes with yours. Make sure she wants the same things out of life. Have those tough spiritual and political conversations. Do you want kids? How many and how soon?

You’ve got to do the same with a potential co-founder. Do NOT skip this step and take your time.

You’ve got to go slow so that you can go fast.

Make sure you’re both committed to at least 5-7+ years, likely more if things work out. Make sure you’re on the same page about who does what, what kind of an exit you want and will be happy with, team size, etc.

I’ve seen so many potentially great teams fall apart because of this.

And gaming can be especially stressful when a soft launched prototype fails to live up to standards or a CPI ends up being waay too high.

第十三篇

这是游戏企业组织中人际模块属性非常清晰的结构图例

基本上要说明两个问题:随着团队人员的增长,人际维度的复杂性将指数级增长 + 任何一个节点出现问题,比如Toxic化,将影响到整体的辐射范围

这就意味着,创始团队,特别是团队的实际控制人,需要从一开始就着手奠定团队的文化基因

这个文化基因最好是:一切围绕公司利益和项目利益和团队利益,一切与此相悖的都要被制止

Here’s a graph that shows why it’s impossible to keep things healthy by not doing anything. Each dot is one person in the company. Four founders mean that you have six people interacting, possibly in very mutual, harmonious ways.

As you grow, you add dots to this sphere. Each new dot needs to draw a line to each existing dot. Each line needs to be healthy and needs to signal cohesiveness and clarity. Imagine those lines having a color-coding of green for healthy to red for unhealthy.

When you don’t work on the healthiness and leave it to chance, those lines can start turning into signaling politics, confusion, low morale, low productivity, and low feelings of belonging.

One way to infect the organization is to introduce a toxic hire. They will gradually turn things unhealthy, and as leaders show neglect in dealing with culture misfits, the entire organization starts losing cohesiveness.

第十四篇

Scopely CEO的产品理解:产品处在强需求和高天花板的趋向上+方向处在 能最大化释放团队能量和创造力 + 驱动团队的精诚协作

虽然,Scopely更擅长资本运作和产品发行,实际上Scopely当下的流行产品,绝大部分跟Scopely自己的研发暂时都沾不上边

比如最大牌的Star Trek Fleet Command,Scrabble,Marvel Strike Force,Yahtzee With Buddies…都是来自外部的产品线

When thinking about the games that we want to build, we focus on the intersection of three fundamental ideas. It’s when these three ideas come together that we have conviction around a game. First, we look at the market; we look at what’s going on in terms of players, platforms, and genres. We want to build really large, successful games that can deliver massive lifetime revenue, so we want to have conviction around the market potential of anything that we do.

The second idea is there needs to be either a product leader or a team of leaders that have a creative passion for making that game. Ultimately, making games is not just software development. It’s much more than that. It’s a very creative process that’s difficult, and it has a lot of highs but also a number of lows. We see this as a necessary condition, and there needs to be a group of people who want to go on that journey and are incredibly passionate about making that experience.

The third idea is the team. We don’t think in terms of developer or publisher. We think in terms of game teams. In free-to-play games, a game team is a collection of people that go from developers, engineers, art designers, UX, UI, and product, but also growth, user acquisition, and a number of different functions that ultimately live together when you launch a game. What we need to have is conviction that we have the right comprehensive team to go after that opportunity. Although you might have a couple of creative individuals that want to build a game, we’ve learned that the biggest predictor of success is the quality of the overall team. So we spend a lot of time thinking about and deliberately designing what the team needs to look like for going after an RPG versus going after a strategy game versus going after a social PvP game.

第十五篇

这个问题套用Geneva School和Jean Piaget的逻辑,几乎是可以解释的:

人的认知敲定,基本上是由三个层面构成的

一个是人的既有素养,一个是外部的环境模型,一个是人的既有素养在外部环境模型的衔接上产生了非常明确的双向博弈

这个双向博弈,大概率带来三重结局:

一重是相互排斥导致平行化(拿掉交集性),一重是强力的素养同化掉环境模型,一重是强力的环境顺化掉人的认知素养

这个在游戏的用户留存和用户召回上,是可以解释的

相互排斥导致平行化(拿掉交集性),这个已经互相嫌弃了

强力的素养同化掉环境模型 和 强力的环境顺化掉人的认知素养,都导向了:游戏本身和用户具备适配吸引力+在同类型和同环境的比照中,该款游戏的择优属性更突出 + 游戏的强用户渗透反向驱动了游戏本身的强需求性

这个在终结者2审判日(后来的终结战场)和王者荣耀的用户召回上,是非常典型的

第十六篇

在游戏行业,崛起和陨落,要么是产品问题,要么是内耗问题,最终都是正常不过的事情(死掉的不计其数)

但最近两家公司的倒掉,其实还是可以拿出来说的

一家是,Boss Key Productions,背后是大神(Cliff Bleszinski)+大资源(Nexon)

一家是Telltale Games,背后是讲故事优势(Novel)+IP(比如The Walking Dead,Game of Thrones,Batman。。。)

产品不能匹配市场的迭代需求(LawBreakers)就是Cliff Bleszinski+Nexon也无力回天

产品跟着市场且滞后于市场(Radical Heights)就是Cliff Bleszinski+Nexon都不能力挽狂澜

至于Telltale Games,就更难了:产品很强大,口碑一流,在Adventure Games领域一枝独秀

但好产品赚不到钱(领域太窄,且一直在萎缩),连公司的可持续性都不存在了

以上说的是:市场的趋向适应性不可逆,逆了谁也拉不住(-)不能在更广阔的空间变现,就是再优秀也要死

第十七篇

更正下,The Walking Dead因为过往改编游戏的上限不够高,而期待The Walking Dead Survivors,但事实上,可能要调整的是:State of Survival同期做了一个The Walking Dead Crossover Events

The Walking Dead Survivors的竞争成效要严重受制于State of Survival Walking Dead,预期要下调很多

State of Survival和The Walking Dead的联动,无疑是更好的策略

虽然智明星通没有激活Call of Duty的策略版,但基本上可以确定The Walking Dead Survivors将成为The Walking Dead在移动端改编游戏的巅峰

超过之前任何的竞品开发商,包括Scopely,Next Games,Disruptor Beam,和Tilting Point

第十八篇

所有的Battle Royale游戏都没能幸免:无一例外都外挂泛滥

包括PUBG,PUBG Mobile,Fortnite,Apex Legends,Call of Duty Warzone,和平精英,荒野行动,终结战场,Knives Out,Free Fire,Rules of Survival…没有一款游戏的平衡性,不受困于玩家大比例作弊的,哪怕反作弊系统再迭代,外挂辅助一样层出不穷

Cheaters are never welcome,to date,our security and enforcement team has issued more than 475000 permabans in call of Duty Warzone

第十九篇

CD Projekt这配色虽然土,但是关键词都切中游戏产品的核心

A,对游戏本身来说,Resonate with gamers

B,对研发团队来说,There is an inner fire ,fueled in every member of the studio

第二十篇

恺英网络的Q1业绩预告里对蓝月传奇2只字不提,反而提了原始传奇,看起来是对蓝月传奇2的产品效果不带预期了

蓝月传奇1和2,看起来都没有实现:是兄弟,一起上的指标

恺英网络近期的产品线被顶级发行商代理好密集,包括腾讯代理的蓝月传奇2(虽然蓝月传奇1表现不太行),腾讯代理的玄中记,腾讯代理的暗夜破晓,B站代理的刀剑神域黑衣剑士王牌…

照这架势,魔神英雄传估计最后也要被代理了

本文整理自近期朋友圈,欢迎探讨交流,郑金条,微信zhengjintiao


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