Joost van Dreunen谈苹果推出的游戏订阅服务Apple Arcade

原作者：Joost van Dreunen 译者：Willow Wu

（本文作者是SuperData Research的创始人，游戏行业资深研究人士）

苹果公司现在已经不同于以往了。

一般来说，GDC之后的一周游戏行业都是处于待机状态，而苹果公司显然不知道这个约定俗成的做法，在周一就扔出一个重磅炸弹：推出手游订阅服务。

这家电子产品销售巨头公司公布了多个内容服务项目，其中就包括最让人感兴趣的Apple Arcade。这项订阅服务似乎与苹果公司成为行业霸主的雄心背道而驰：用户每月交一定的费用就可以畅玩付费游戏，这无疑会对F2P游戏的收益，也就是促成苹果成功的主力业务造成打击。尽管如此，苹果公司打算在现有的成功基础上通过建立新商业模式来进一步扩大他们的影响力。

之前，我对谷歌Stadia发布会有很多疑问，写过一篇文章。有看过的朋友可能已经猜到我对这次苹果发布会的感受——严肃认真。他们将重点放在内容和创新前景上——这是谷歌完全没有的。独家、引人入胜的内容是人们选择一个平台或在它这花费更多时间的原因。而且，先不论内容质量，这次发布会验证了我之前的两个预测：第一，订阅服务会成为游戏行业非常重要的一部分；第二，人们会更关注适合孩童/家庭一起玩的内容。

苹果的内容战略其实非常正确。那些不会反复“骚扰”你、要你氪金的付费游戏被已经深深地埋在产品堆的底层，以至于人们得用一种新方式让它们重见天日。多人游戏中的永久性机制可以为人们带来收益，这很大程度上是一种技术性的手段。但这也导致很多剧情主导的单人游戏体验被抛弃，而很多陪伴我们成长的游戏大多都是这种模式。

Apple Arcade（from gamasutra.com）

苹果制定这个战略有几大缘由。

首先，在这样一个内容商业化的市场中，人们对优质产品的需求越来越多。游戏公司的用户获取成本近年来不断飙升，但是用户消费却没有跟上。再智能的UA工具和算法也无法解决这个问题。游戏榜单的头排位置总是那几个由那几个超级大公司掌控，一般工作室根本没办法投入那么多钱。通过创立订阅项目，苹果公司可以让这些创造不同游戏体验的新工作室有机会接触到消费者。

通过呈现一系列精心挑选的游戏，我们也可以由此看出苹果的品牌策略。他们在隐私保护、家庭共享方面做了更多努力。早在2015年，苹果就在App Store推出了Pay Once and Play这样一个版块，提供一些付费产品，让用户远离那些疯狂的微交易。同时，苹果也制定了一个明确的创新计划。就如预告中呈现的那样：

“这里没有枪支，没有死亡，我们只是在讲述一个故事。我们几乎是与当前的市场完全相悖。大部分人都不会接触到这款游戏，除非有Apple Arcade的存在。”

收入

尽管在发布会上苹果公司倾力表现他们对游戏设计以及游戏体验的重视，但他们开发Arcade服务并非是单纯地想帮助这些开发者。自从硬件销量开始下滑、不再公开销售数据后，苹果公司一直在寻找新方法来拉动销量。Apple Arcade的出现至少可以在两方面起到积极作用。

首先就是促进服务收入增长。苹果旗下的两项音乐业务加起来都无法与游戏业务匹敌。他们的服务收入顺利地朝着500亿美元的目标里程碑前进。服务收入的增长也能够弥补硬件销量停滞，避免投资者的忧虑。

其次，与许多其他科技公司一样，苹果发现，经常性收入会导致华尔街的估值高于交易收入。除了一些内容服务，苹果公司还推出了一张信用卡Apple Card，其实这并不令人意外。对他们来说这就是一个留存工具，能够让用户更依赖这个平台。

当然，一切都取决于苹果会给予内容创造者什么样的酬劳。上周GDC大会campfire的讨论就是围绕着谷歌的三七分成外加广告收入政策。我还不能确定这件事的真实性，但至少从长期来看是有益的。我们已经看到了苹果付费新闻服务的五五分成策略并不能被所有发行商所接受。和谷歌一样，苹果也在简化内容创造者，把他们当成众多精选产品中的一个成本加成产品。这就意味着苹果可以让一个工作室一夜爆红，也可以轻易让他们的努力付诸东流。

最后，这就是为什么Apple Arcade行得通的原因：对于那些高渗透率的平台来说，平均家庭支出是他们最主要的收入来源，这也是为什么索尼、微软和Steam一直以来都做得很好，而像Discord和Epic这样的新兴平台即使是在整体市场情况大好的背景下也得受前者的压制。

从另一方面来说，苹果庞大的用户基础就赋予了他们巨大的优势。现在有10多亿的设备在使用，再加上五花八门的信用卡，每月10美元的游戏订阅费对他们来说根本就是小事。另外，Apple TV似乎也要成为PC和主机的竞争对手了。

大家会买账吗？

是的，苹果是一家巨头企业。他们有不可思议的才能，所有的产品都独具匠心。当游戏在近几年成为主流娱乐后，人们希望有更多迎合普通的父母、孩子的产品出现，而不是只针对硬核铁杆玩家。

然而，订阅服务目标的主流受众的花费要少得多。想想这个订阅墙后面的几百个游戏中有谁是能够凭借此真正地成为赢家？寥寥几个吧。说到收益方面，订阅游戏的表现几乎不可能超过F2P，苹果公司的观点也是如此。在他们宏大的内容管理蓝图中，Apple Arcade的定位是一种“补贴性质”的内容策略。我们很快就能知道苹果在游戏选择上是否会和设计手机时一样独具慧眼。

这次发布会，我们很容易注意到苹果并没有公布价格和计划支出预算。Netflix、HBO和Amazon都为了自家的项目花了很大一笔钱。它能够制造多大的水花，这跟资金投入是呈线性关系的。为了让它顺利启动、在业内引起轰动，庞大的预算是必不可少的。

尽管如此，华尔街已经跃跃欲试，期待苹果的服务收入目标由原来的500亿美元翻倍。我觉得我们应该给苹果一个机会来证明他们在新领域的潜力。我们时不时就能听到某个平台说他们希望应对人们的日常生活产生重要影响。而苹果今天的承诺是“Apple Arcade将会给予开发者充分的自由，让他们呈现出主流产品之前从未实现过的有趣创意。”

我们拭目以待吧。

上周人们讨论的都是谷歌Stadia，现在则是Apple Arcade。现任游戏平台拥有者是不是该担心？

无需如此。像索尼、微软、任天堂还有Steam现阶段并不需要过多忧虑。在用户基数较大的平台上，平均的家庭费用支出还是比较高的。虽说苹果设备用户也非常非常多，但是Apple Arcade的目标用户：1.既然已经订阅，不会想要每个月再额外花那么多钱；2.跟现有平台的目标用户不同。然而，那些重度依赖移动用户的发行商（比如Zynga、Rovio、Supercell、Niantic）可能会觉得他们的投入成本可能会再度攀升。

Apple Arcade跟谷歌的Stadia相比如何？

他们的策略有明显不同：Apple Arcade是提供选定的付费内容，Stadia提供的是部分基于广告的内容。收入模式的不同也决定了他们最终服务内容的不容。亮点在于两个公司多强调了互通性。他们承诺玩家的多个设备可以实现存档互通。这样一来，游戏体验就像更像是Spotify和Netflix平台那样，这是其它平台无法做到的（可能要把任天堂Switch排除在外，虽说有云存档但实际上只有一台设备）。

对小、中型企业有什么重要意义？

苹果公司的投资给了这些公司出头的机会，即使他们现在大多都处于开发商的阴影下。然而，苹果做事一向都有所保留，不会将他们决策和计划改变完全传达给开发社区，这大概会让习惯于享受VIP待遇的大型发行商十分气恼。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

Joost van Dreunen is a games industry researcher and founder of SuperData Research.

Apple is rolling away from the tree. A bit.

With the games industry traditionally vacant following the week after GDC, Apple apparently didn’t get the memo and started Monday with a landmark announcement: it’s launching a mobile gaming subscription service.

At its showcase this week the consumer electronics giant announced several new content services, including, and most interestingly, the Apple Arcade. The subscription-based service is a deviation from what has allowed Apple to become an absolute juggernaut in the industry: by offering premium titles for a fixed monthly fee, it effectively forfeits the free-to-play revenue that drives its success. Nevertheless, Apple is looking to build on its success in mobile gaming by adding a new business model and playing a more significant role outside of mobile.

If you’ve read my write-up on Google’s Stadia announcement, you could’ve guessed that I’d find Apple’s announcement more substantive. It focused on content and a particular creative vision that was wholly lacking from Google’s. Exclusive, exciting content is what drives people to adopt a platform or spend more time on it. And, FWIW, its announcement gives credence to two of my predictions: first, that subscriptions would become a major part of the industry, and second that there would be more attention for kid/family-friendly content.

Its content strategy is right on the money. Premium titles, the kind that do notrelentlessly hit you up for cash, have been buried so deep in the industry’s digital offering that they’ve re-emerged as a novelty. The persistence on multi-player game mechanics aimed at creating positive network effects that can be monetized is very much a ‘tech’ approach to content. But it has also abandoned much of the narrative-driven single player experiences that many of us enjoyed growing up.

There are several strong components to Apple’s strategy here.

First, in a marketplace where content has become an absolute commodity, there is a growing demand for premium titles. User acquisition costs have skyrocketed but consumer spending has not kept pace. No amount of clever UA tools and algorithms can solve the discovery problem in a nearly infinite mobile game offering. With the top ranking spots largely controlled by a handful of firms, it is now impossible to outspend the titans of mobile gaming. By creating a subscription program, Apple enables newcomers that create different experience to connect with consumers.

By presenting a curated selection of pretty games, Apple is carving out its own identity. It also adds more credibility to its overall family-friendly “privacy is a fundamental human right” approach. Back in 2015 Apple already created a category called “Pay Once and Play” category on its App Store that offered a selected of premium titles void of micro-transaction craziness. In doing so, Apple also set a clear creative agenda. According to its teaser videos:

“There’s no guns, there’s no killing, we’re just telling a story. We’re almost the complete opposite of the current market. Most people typically wouldn’t see it unless Apple Arcade existed.”

Money

Despite all the on-stage appreciation for game design and amazing gaming experiences, Apple didn’t build its Arcade service from the kindness of its heart. Ever since its device sales have started to slow, and stopped disclosing its numbers, Apple has been looking for a way to keep growing. It will drive value in at least two ways.

First and foremost, it will add to its service revenue targets. Gaming is bigger than its two music offerings combined, and Apple is well on its way to generate $50 billion in services revenue as promised. This growth in services will offset its inevitable saturation in devices and keep investors happy.

Secondly, like many other tech firms, Apple has discovered that recurrent revenue leads to a higher valuation on Wall street than revenue derived on a transaction-basis. It is no surprise that alongside several new content services it announced a credit card. This is a retention tool that will undoubtedly improve the firm’s ability to keep people married to its platform.

Everything all depends, of course, on how Apple intends to compensate content creators. Word around the campfire at GDC last week was that Google is offering developers a 30/70 split plus ad revenue. I have yet to confirm that, but it at least offers some long term upside. We’ve already seen how Apple feels about paying news services: its 50/50 split did not go over well. Like Google, Apple is reducing content creators to become a cost-plus line item amidst a select number of no doubt heavily-curated titles. This means that Apple can make or break a studio’s success overnight.

Finally, here’s why this can work: average household spending tends to be highest for those platforms with the highest penetration. This is why Sony, Microsoft, and Steam have been able to do so well. And why newcomers like Discord and Epic are having a harder time despite the overall market momentum.

Apple, on the other hand, has a massive advantage here because of its enormous install base. With over a billion devices out there already spending and set up with credit cards of all kinds, a $10/month game subscription is no-brainer. And, it seemingly opens the door to Apple TV becoming more of a competitor to PC and consoles in the living room.

Will it work, though?

Yes, Apple is big. And, yes, it has this incredible ability to make everything it touches look amazing. And certainly since gaming went mainstream in the past few years, there has been a growing demand for titles that cater less to the die-hard hardcore players and more to the average mom, dad, and child.

However, the mainstream audience that it targets with the subscription service spends substantially less. Combine that with the economics of a being one of a hundred titles behind a subscription wall, and there will likely be only a few big winners here. On a revenue basis it is unlikely for a subscription title to outperform a free-to-play game which, obviously, is precisely Apple’s point. The Apple Arcade is a subsidized content strategy where Apple an all-powerful strong hand in its curation. We will see soon enough if it’s as good at spotting titles as it is at building phones.

The glaring omissions across of its announced services today are pricing and the budget Apple plans to spend. As we’ve seen with Netflix, HBO, and Amazon, it costs a small fortune to get it off the ground. The size of the splash it will manage to make with this depends linearly on how much money it plans to spend. And to get this off the ground and make it soar, it will have to dig deep into its pockets.

Nevertheless, Wall street is excited and is starting to look past the promised $50bn in services revenue towards double that number. I say we give Apple a chance to prove itself in this new territory. So often do we hear of a platform’s ambition to be more meaningful in everyone’s life. Today its promise is that “Apple Arcade is about giving developers the freedom to come up with really interesting ideas that could have never have been done by the mainstream.”

Let’s hope it gets more exciting than that.

Last week was all about Google’s Stadia and now it’s Apple Arcade. Should the incumbent platform holders in gaming worry?

No. As the incumbents, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and Steam do not have much to fear yet. The average spending per household is typically higher among platforms with a larger install base. Sure enough, Apple has a ton of devices out there, but its target audience is (a) limited in its monthly spending because of the subscription fee, and (b) different from the audiences that incumbents attract. However, publishers that rely disproportionately on mobile audiences (e.g. Zynga, Rovio, Supercell, Niantic) may find that the cost of doing business is going up.

How does this relate to Google’s Stadia?

There is a clear difference in their approach: Apple’s is a select premium offering and Google is providing a partially ad-based offering. That difference in revenue model makes their ultimate services wildly different. What stands out is that both firms emphasize interoperability. Both have promised that users can save their game, switch devices, and continue where they left off. This makes gaming a lot more like what consumers are used to from Spotify and Netflix, and which is something that other platforms don’t offer (with perhaps the exception of the Nintendo Switch but that’s really only one device).

What is the significance for small and medium-sized firms?

Apple’s investment provides a chance for mobile gaming’s middle class to prosper, even as they currently stand very much in the shadow of the publishers at the top. However, Apple has historically not proven itself transparent in communicating its decisions and changes to its development community (much to the chagrin of especially big publishers who are used to getting VIP treatment).

（source:gamasutra.com ）