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关于全球手机游戏未来还会持续增长的逻辑分析

发布时间:2019-01-11 08:55:52 Tags:,

关于全球手机游戏未来还会持续增长的逻辑分析

原作者:Mark Robinson 译者:Vivian Xue

对于手游来说,过去的十年是不可思议的。十年间,手机成为了世界上最受欢迎的游戏平台,为游戏行业1380亿美元的总收入贡献了700亿美元。

手游公司的崛起令人瞩目,但令人难以置信的是——这仅仅是个开始。根据研究公司Newzoo预测,未来一年内手游消费支出将提升25%以上。随着手游电竞化起步,以及AR游戏的不断发展,可以肯定地说,手游收入增长是必然趋势。

那么,除了最近的流行趋势外,究竟是什么推动了手游收入的增长,以及近年来手游盈利模式是如何演变的?

玩家体验是关键

这是显而易见的,目前手游的流行在很大程度上归功于游戏体验的巨大提升。

就在五年前,骚扰广告和令人恼怒的盈利机制常常毁了F2P手游,大约60%的玩家在玩了一次后就退坑了,而只有1%的玩家会真正消费。但现在这种情况正在改变。

Puzzle_quest(from en.wikipedia.org)

Puzzle_quest(from en.wikipedia.org)

游戏发行商和开发者已经掌握了更为成熟的留存策略。精准定位和个性化运营已成为了司空见惯的做法,而开发者现在更善于平衡游戏体验与广告/内购。

商业模式转变

为了帮助理解近年来游戏盈利模式发生了怎样的变化,我们最近对从2016年1月至今的8亿多个独立用户和2500多款游戏的数据进行分析。

分析结果显示,F2P游戏的核心商业模式发生了明显的重大转变。过去F2P游戏的大部分收入来源于小比例的鲸鱼玩家,而如今的游戏除鲸鱼玩家外,随意消费的玩家数量比过去要高得多,盈利结构更加平衡。

举个例子,在过去三年内,北美地区平均每款游戏的付费玩家数量百分比增长了三分之一,达到4.02%,欧洲增长了五分之一,达到了2.43%。

一些特定游戏类型的盈利状况也发生了重大转变。例如,战略游戏的每日活跃用户平均收入飙升199.99%,达到0.21美元,而在娱乐场游戏中,每日活跃用户平均收入上涨了41.66%,益智游戏上涨了25%。

但也有坏消息。从总体上看,动作游戏近年来每日活跃用户平均收入暴跌52.38%,只有0.10美元。

尽管手游的付费玩家数量比以往任何时候都要高,但他们的消费金额却略有下降。据统计iOS平台的玩家终身价值下降了6.58%至29.07美元,而安卓平台玩家的终身价值下降了17.69%至24.37美元。

从总体上看,这些数据表明游戏市场的盈利模式比以往更为平衡,对于开发商来说,这种模式要健康得多,因为它不再依赖少数鲸鱼玩家来获取大部分收入。

F2P游戏内购的“污名”在逐渐消失

尽管手游市场崛起迅速,但真正消费的玩家仍然只占玩家总数的2%至3%。一个关键原因是许多F2P游戏自主选择了这种模式。

依靠收费墙和困难关卡鼓励玩家消费的模式往往会使他们愤怒和懊恼。然而,开发人员正在钻研如何更好地将盈利机制整合到游戏中,在保障游戏体验的同时让玩家自愿消费——而非为了继续游戏不得不花钱。

总结

手游的收入数据令人吃惊,我们必须要注意到F2P手游仍然处于起步阶段。

游戏制作者仍然在探索如何将非凡的游戏体验与盈利机制完美结合起来,不过从我们的数据中可以清楚地看到,开发者们已经取得了进展。

《堡垒之夜》手游是这一想法的成功实践。这款游戏采取了一种全新盈利和留存策略,通过售卖不会打破游戏平衡的装饰道具获得了创纪录的收入。

因此,随着F2P游戏内购的污名逐渐消失,手游市场很可能会继续增长,相比之下游戏主机的地位将进一步下降。

本文由游戏邦编译,转载请注明来源,或咨询微信zhengjintiao

It’s been an incredible decade for mobile games. In just ten years, the mobile phone has become the most popular games console in the world, delivering $70 billion of the games industry’s total $138 billion in revenues.

Mobile’s rise to prominence has been remarkable, but incredibly – this is just the beginning. Research firm Newzoo predicts that mobile games spending will rise by more than 25 per cent in the next year alone. With the eSports boom yet to really take off on mobile and trends like augmented reality (AR) gaming set to take off, it’s safe to say that the only way is up for mobile game revenues.

So, aside from the latest trends, what exactly is driving growth in mobile games and how have monetization models evolved in recent years?

The player experience is key

It sounds obvious, but the current popularity of mobile games owes much to the vast improvements that have been made around delivering an engaging player experience.

Even five years ago, Free-to-Play (F2P) mobile games were often ruined by highly intrusive ads and infuriating monetisation mechanics. This meant that around 60 per cent of players would never return after their first session, while only 1 per cent would actually spend any money. But that’s now changing.

Games publishers and developers have become a lot more sophisticated in how they engage players. Granular targeting and personalisation techniques are now commonplace, while developers are now much more adept at balancing the player experience with ads and In-App Purchases (IAP).

Shifting business models

To help understand how game monetisation models have changed in recent years, we recently analyzed data from over 800 million unique users and 2500 games, extending back from January 2016 to the present day.

From this, it became clear that there has been a significant shift in the core business model in F2P games. Where F2P games used to rely on the small percentage of whales or power spenders to drive the majority of the revenue, games now have a much higher number of casual spenders alongside the whales, and this is creating much more balanced monetisation.

For example, in the last three years, the percentage of paying players per game in North America has increased by a third to 4.02per cent and a fifth to 2.43 per centin Europe.

There have also been some significant monetisation shifts within specific game genres. For example, ARPDAU (Average Revenue Per Daily Active User) within strategy games has soared by 199.99 per cent to $0.21, while in casino games ARPDAU has risen 41.66 per cent and in puzzle games by 25 per cent.

But it’s not all good news. Action games, in general, have plummeted in recent years with ARPDAU falling by 52.38 per centto $.0.10.

While mobile games players are now spending in higher numbers than ever before, the amount they are spending has fallen slightly. On iOS, the Lifetime Value of a player has decreased by 6.58 per cent to $29.07, while the average Android player is spending 17.69per cent less at $24.37.

Overall, the data reveals a trend towards a more balanced monetisation model in games, one that is a lot healthier for developers as it moves away from having to rely on a small number of whales to deliver the bulk of the revenue.

Free-to-Play spending becoming less stigmatized

Despite the meteoric rise of mobile games, it’s still only 2-3 per cent of players that actually spend money. A key reason for this is the way that many F2P games choose to monetise.

Models which rely on blockers and pinch points to encourage players to spend can often annoy and frustrate them. However, developers are learning how to better integrate monetisation mechanics into F2P games so that the player experience is preserved and spending money becomes something players want to – rather than have to – do to continue playing.

Summary

While the revenue figures generated by mobile games are eye-popping, it’s important to remember that the F2P mobile games space is still in its infancy.

Game makers are still on a journey to understanding how best to combine a great player experience with the mechanics for making money, but what’s clear from our data is that progress is undoubtedly being made.

This success of Fortnite on mobile is a testament to this new thinking. The game has achieved record-breaking revenues by taking a completely innovative approach to driving monetisation and long-term engagement through cosmetic items that offer no competitive edge.

So, as spending money in F2P games becomes less stigmatized, we are likely to see mobile gaming continue to grow and ultimately dwarf console.(source:Gameughs

 


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