未来的游戏形态是什么样的：多位开发者谈五年后的游戏行业

原作者：Patrick Stafford 译者：Willow Wu

2022年的游戏行业可能是规模庞大、混乱、跟现在截然不同的。

现在的孩子以后可能就是游戏行业的主力军。他们可以成为资金不那么宽裕的独立开发者，在战争国家中，他们可能成为退休人士、艺术家或者是边缘儿童。

他们或许能创造出独具匠心的作品，但在游戏失败很久之后才被人们发现。

随着Polygon的五周年到来之际，我们决定向游戏领域的专业人士们问一个问题：5年后的游戏行业会是怎么样的？

其中有些人做出的预测比较贴合当下实际（比如VR的崛起），但大部分受访者还是围绕着游戏本身的结构进行探讨。许多人都认为在未来游戏的很多方面都会得到提升，但也有人提出了警告，认为未来会出现一些不好的事情，而且有些人需要为此付出代价。

未来并不一定是如你想象的那样

虽然很多开发者都在设想未来的游戏行业会充斥着各种令人兴奋的高新技术，但他们在一些基本问题上还存在着分歧——VR在未来会是怎样的？还会出现新的游戏主机吗？如果有的话，PC的地位又会变得怎样？

《耻辱》系列（Dishonored）的开发公司Arkane Studios的创意总监Harvey Smith表示他看好VR，但并不把它当成游戏平台。

“它还有很多应用方式值得挖掘，而且VR本身的问题也很少，”他说。

很多开发者都分享了观点：Epic Games UX部门前主管Celia Hodent说除非VR变得实用，不然即使到2022年VR还是成为不了主流。

Quantic Foundry分析咨询部门主管Nick Yee对VR是否会成为未来的主流平台持消极态度。

“对于多数游戏类型来说VR并没有什么意义，又或者是游戏体验上没什么特别大的差别。大多数玩家购买游戏的首要理由也不是为了沉浸在另一个世界，所以他们不太可能花这么多钱去买VR设备，”他说。

Thatgamecompany的合作创始人、IndieFund平台的合作伙伴同时现在也是谷歌公司的VR游戏、VR APP的制作人Kellee Santiago也认为用户群体会呈现分散状态。

“就丰富、沉浸式的游戏世界而言，VR的效果绝对是令人惊艳的。但是，它能争取到大多数玩家吗？我不这么觉得。”

然而，行业中还是有人把VR看作是未来市场的主要平台——就比如Pieter van den Heuvel, Newzoo电子竞技产品开发部门和市场情报部门的主管。

“我还没见过谁用了Oculus Rift一点都不激动的。”他说开发者们可以在游戏中加入针对VR的额外内容，例如在《英雄联盟》中使用第一人称探索地图，或者通过一种有趣的视觉方式查看玩家数据。

但是，人们对VR的担忧并不意味着大家都会采取比较谨慎的策略，事实可是大相径庭。Hodent说她希望看到新平台的出现，而且它应该是我们现在无法想象的。

“Oculus已经在市场中占据一席之地了。除了PC，这五年期间哪种设备会成为我们接触游戏的主要平台？是电视吗？通过云端或者是娱乐网络功能？又或者还是依靠游戏主机？要不然头戴设备？这就是我感兴趣的地方。”

Santiago指出任天堂Switch就是一个创新式设备，在接下来的五年中会有更多制造商去尝试这样的设备。

“是的，新的游戏主机肯定会出现，”她说，“或许这些硬件的设计方式在2022年之前就会有所改变。”

Hipster Whale（《天天过马路》的开发公司）的合作创始人Matt Hall认为在2022年之前，游戏行业将会受到新技术的极大影响。

“AR发展到最后的应该是你不需要手机了，你可以直接用眼镜，”他说，“AR游戏将会是非常庞大的。

但玩游戏的最佳设备应该还是DualShock手柄。所以移动设备就成为痛点了……你会用什么来操控AR游戏呢？”

Harvey Smith认为手游发行市场已经迎来了新的迭代时机。“我们可能要迎来一场变革，目的是能够让那些类似PC游戏的产品可以更好、更稳定地发展。”

发现未知

尽管Hall认为AR的成功是板上钉钉的，但他提到了一个关键话题，本次受访的所有开发者都就此进行了探讨而且把它视为2022年前游戏行业面临的最大问题——玩家要怎么发现好游戏？

Hall说人们没有足够的时间去玩每个游戏，有些产品自然就会被忽略。

“Steam上有成千上万卖不出去的游戏，其实很多都值得一玩，”他说。

Sean Vanaman，《看火人》开发公司Campo Santo的合作创始人表示同意，并且进一步深入了这个话题：他说很多优秀的游戏是以失败告终、又过了很久之后才被人们注意到。接下来的这五年，游戏行业的门槛将会降得非常低，像Unity和Gamemaker这样的免费工具将会促使更多不同的人来制作不同的故事，但是游戏被发现的概率也会大大降低。

“那些能够获得国际知名度的艺术作品其实只占到非常小非常小的一部分。”Vanaman说。

Harvey Smith进行了更深入的探讨，他说“届时这种问题（很难让玩家看到你的游戏）会扩大到一种很可怕的地步，而那些拥有雄厚资金的开发商由于有能力打持久战，所以会很占优势。”

那有什么解决办法吗？Santiago说我们很明显能看到越来越多的游戏公司应用了订阅类服务，其模式跟Netflix类似。

“这个时代并不缺少高质量、有价值的游戏。如何才能让开发者真正地受益于这个价值？让玩家尝试一些他们原本不会接触到的游戏，这就是个好办法。”

发行游戏的新环境

部分开发者认为高预算项目环境或将发生改变。

具体来说就是目前行业面临着两大风险：职业倦怠和人才流失。前者就是开发者们随着年纪的增长厌倦了在高强度状态下工作。

后者指的就是开发者们打算永远地离开这个行业。

Santiago说“我听过那些有才的游戏工程师和设计师说他们很想做游戏，但是他们不想要这种生活方式。

大型软件公司面临着很多问题，他们得想尽办法把工程师留下来。但是游戏行业似乎比较喜欢用20岁30岁的年轻人，榨干他们然后就放他们走。”

行业中的独立开发者越来越多了，大公司不能以这种方式继续下去。

Harvey Smith说这些离开的开发者们可能还会去建立自己的小型工作室，再加上开发工具变得越来越便宜，做一个独立开发者也相对没那么难了。他还预言说未来在世界的某些城市会出现新的游戏开发基地，因为这些独立开发者想寻求保障，避免他们在失败时遭遇破产。

“我认为不同的国家应该会采取不同的政策，然后问题就变成了你想在哪个地方建立游戏工作室？”Smith说。

加强与玩家之间的联系

Early access开发能够帮助游戏团队创建稳健、参与度高的社区，进而提高游戏成功的几率。

很多受访者表示他们希望这种现象能够继续保持下去。但是Celia Hodent说开发者们应该对这种关系有一个更清楚的认识，划清界限。不然他们可能会因为社区的消极反馈而做出错误的决定。

Hodent说“玩家不是设计师……我不是说他们的投入没有价值，但是你的工作就是看看人们有什么样反应，找到问题所在。

Early access阶段的游戏系统还未完善，你可能想根据玩家反馈来改变一些东西，但是这也许并不是正确的选择……你可能会出现‘反应过激’。”

其他受访者也认同这点，还表示你不仅要知道玩家做什么，你还需要理解他们为什么这样做。

Nick Yee说游戏生成的庞大数据不仅仅是为了方便开发者了解玩家做了什么、怎样才能充分利用游戏机制，还能帮助设计师们探究玩家的情绪，并基于此对游戏进行定制设计。

“举个例子，如果你知道某个玩家不喜欢竞争，那你会弱化排行榜或者做出其它类似的决策吗？”

有些发行商已经在尝试了。动视公司最近获得了一项专利批准，可以在游戏中为玩家量身定制微交易产品。

所以在数据应用方面，接下来的五年会发生两个主要的改变。

第一是尝试。举个例子：Riot Games组建了一个分析团队来研究怎样才能减少游戏中的毒瘤行为，Yee希望有更多的发行商能够在类似的大规模测试上投入更多。

第二就是由于行业中数据研究人才短缺，那些没有游戏相关背景的人也加入了进来。再过几年，这些新血液就会在游戏设计方面显现出巨大的影响力，为行业带来新思潮。

“看看其它领域的技术能不能在游戏上得到很好的效果，而且也能验证游戏专业背景的必要性，这是很有意思的。”

前景不明的电子竞技

虽然在过去的五年中，电子竞技对游戏行业的繁荣无疑是起到了推动作用，但接下来的这五年电子竞技会变得更受欢迎吗？很难说。

根据Pieter van den Heuvel的说法，随着市场的发展，电子竞技领域应该会出现一系列的变化。

首先，行业会出现更多的并购：体育队伍会收购电子竞技部门，媒体公司将会收购那些能够从观众身上赚钱的业务，赞助也会变多。

再者，电子竞技组织会开始走向正规化。“商业意识变得越来越重要，”van den Heuvel提到ESL今年雇用了一位沃达丰前管理层人员。

最后，van den Heuvel说游戏公司在未来会把观众视为盈利对象。尽管有些玩家会去玩新的游戏，但他们仍然会观看各种不同的游戏视频。

“想想看在锦标赛直播中我们设置一个付费观众才能看到的拍摄角度。”他说。

在接下来的五年，电竞会扩散到主机平台上，任天堂Switch上的竞技游戏也能成为电竞项目。

有些发行商已经考虑到在开发阶段就加入电竞元素——比如这个游戏适不适合直播，能吸引观众吗，van den Heuvel说未来这个设计理念将会变得更加普遍。

“《绝地求生》之所以能这么受欢迎就是因为看游戏直播和玩游戏都是很有意思的，有时候前者还会比后者更有趣。发行商在以后会更注重这一方面。”

前方之路

虽然有些人预言游戏行业将会迎来大变革，但受访者们表示还是有一些方面会保持不变。很多人认为以后为PC仍会是最主要的游戏平台，甚至比现在更加不可撼动。

“在我看来，PC游戏的地位在很长一段时间内都不会受到影响。至少在大家还在用个人电脑的时代，PC游戏是不会消失的。”Hodent说。

Santiago表示赞同，“我认为长时间、沉浸式的优质游戏体验需求还是存在的，”他说，“未来会出现新的游戏类型、新的玩家，但我相信人们总是会需要一个地方、一个美丽的世界让我们可以忘记自我。”
那其它方面呢？Hodent说那就看谁能够拔得头筹了。

“行业环境发生变化，人们消费娱乐的方式也会随之改变。比如说Netflix，它对电影和电视节目的消费方式产生了巨大影响。我希望在不久以后，电子游戏的消费方式也能发生类似的改变。”她说。

Matt Hall说随着玩家群体的平均年龄增长，游戏设计也会发生相应的更改。

“我没办法单独玩《守望先锋》，我八岁的女儿也没办法玩，但我们在一起玩的时候我就想将来的游戏应该要更适合全年龄段、适合残障人士或者是有其它困难的玩家。”

Nick Yee也同意这个观点，他说“游戏老化”是人们一直在回避的话题，它会在很大程度上改变游戏的玩法。

“在电子游戏陪伴下长大那一代现在都35岁以上了，而且他们很有可能会一直玩下去，”他说道，

“现在这个中青年市场跟传统的青少年市场有什么不同，搞清楚这个问题非常重要，也许还能对新的游戏机制以及模式有所启发。

同时，玩家群体也在以不同的方式扩大。所以类似不对称合作玩法（跨越不同年龄段的玩家）设定会得到越来越多人的喜爱。”

Harvey Smith说如果你懂得纵观全局，你就能明白这是创新的大好时机。

“《绝地求生》的主开发者是一个独立意识相当强的人，还有像《塔科马》（游戏邦注：Tacoma）这样超高水准的沉浸式模拟游戏即使是在当下也几乎没有开发者有把握能够做出来，就好像是让一个10岁的孩子去上Unity或者是Gamemaker培训班。”

Celia Hodent说有些东西是很难预测的，因为游戏是一个全球化行业，影响因素非常多，而且发展速度也越来越快。她还引用了诺贝尔获奖者Dennis Gabor的话：“我们无法预测未来，但是我们可以创造未来。”

Hodent说这句话应该成为游戏行业的战斗口号。

“有人能预测到标题党的兴起或者是假新闻现象吗？就算你能够借助技术手段来进行预测，但事件对社会的影响也是难以预料的。

“我们必须参与并创造未来。”

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

The game industry of 2022 is big, messy and hard to find.

Those who define it might be children. They could be solo developers on just enough funding to scrimp by for the next project. They could be retirees, artists or marginalized children in a war-torn country.

They may create works of genius that go undiscovered until long after their death.

Following up on Polygon’s recent fifth anniversary, we decided to ask a range of experts in the game industry the same question: What will things look like five years from now?

While some cited practical predictions, like the rise of virtual reality, most centered around the structures that enable games to be made in the first place. And while many people see things improving, several also sounded warning bells about what the industry may be like and who may be in charge of it.

THE FUTURE ISN’T NECESSARILY WHAT YOU THINK

While many developers imagine a future where the game industry is overrun with new and exciting technology, many are split on some fundamental questions. What role will virtual reality play? Will there be new consoles? And if so, what power will the PC still wield?

Harvey Smith, co-creative director at Arkane Studios, which birthed the Dishonored series, says he believes in VR but not as a game platform within the next five years.

“There are many other applications with greater potential and fewer inherent problems to solve,” he says.

Many developers shared this sentiment. Celia Hodent, former head of UX at Epic Games, says until VR become more usable she expects it will “remain on the side,” even by 2022.

Nick Yee, head of game analytics consultancy Quantic Foundry, says he’s “pessimistic” about VR being a dominant platform.

“VR doesn’t make sense — or add much — to many game genres. And because the appeal of being immersed in an alternate world isn’t the primary gaming motivation for many gamers, these gamers would be unlikely to invest in expensive VR equipment,” he says.

Kellee Santiago, co-founder of thatgamecompany, IndieFund partner and now producer of VR games and apps at Google, agrees that the audience will be splintered.

“As far as rich, immersive worlds, VR is going to be amazing at offering this. But, I think, will it capture the majority of gamers? I don’t think so.”

There are still those who see VR as dominating the future market. Pieter van den Heuvel, head of product development esports and trends at market intelligence group Newzoo, is one of them.

“I haven’t seen someone take an Oculus Rift off without being excited about it,” van den Heuvel says. He adds that developers can add extra VR-specific content that sits outside the main playing experience, like being able to explore a League of Legends map in first person, or comb through player data in visually interesting ways specific to VR.

The overall trepidation regarding VR isn’t to say these developers think the industry will play it safe: far from it. In fact, Hodent says she expects to see new platforms that we can’t even imagine:

“It’s interesting to see that Oculus is already going standalone. The intriguing part for me is what will be our main interface to access games by 2022, besides computer gaming: TV via cloud or via entertainment networks? Or via physical consoles still? Standalone headsets or goggles?”

Santiago points to the Nintendo Switch as an example of a creative hardware approach that more manufacturers may attempt in the next five years.

“Yes, absolutely there will be new consoles,” she says. “I also think by 2022 consoles will take a different form factor.”

Matt Hall, one-half of Hipster Whale, the outfit that created Crossy Road, says the industry will be overcome with new technology by 2022.

“The endgame of augmented reality is that you won’t need an iPhone. You’ll look everywhere with glasses on,” he says. “AR games are going to be huge.

“Still, the perfect device for playing games is the DualShock controller. For mobile that’s a pain point … what will you be using to control those AR games?”

Harvey Smith says he thinks the smartphone publishing market is ripe for reinvention in the next five years: “It’s possible that we’ll see a major leap there — in terms of genre, storing of game state and UI — that enables an ecosystem of PC-like games to take root and thrive.”

DISCOVERING THE UNDISCOVERABLE

Though Hall feels success with augmented reality is a surety, he also points to an issue that every single developer interviewed for this story brought up independently and cited as the biggest problem the games industry will face by 2022 — the simple dilemma of how players will find good content.

Hall argues there simply won’t be enough time in the day for everyone to play every game — some will slip through the cracks.

“There are hundreds of thousands of failed games on Steam … and many will be well worth playing,” he says.

Sean Vanaman, co-founder of Firewatch developer Campo Santo, agrees and takes that argument a step further by arguing many great developers won’t be discovered until after they die. By 2022, Vanaman says, the industry will have very low barriers to entry with free tools like Unity and Gamemaker that will allow for new types of stories told by new types of people, but the games will be harder to find in a sea of content.

“Art that is discovered and shared globally is a fraction of a fraction of a percent of things that are being made,” says Vanaman.

“[Discovery after death] will happen once people who grew up making most of their content with democratized tools start to die.”

Harvey Smith goes even further by saying the discoverability problem will be so great that the ability to make a sustainable living — something he acknowledges is already a struggle — will “give an advantage to the establishment players with huge amounts of money.”

What’s the solution to that? Santiago says we could very well see the rise of subscription-type services for games using a Netflix-type model.

“We’re getting to that time now where there could be enough high quality out there that’s of value,” she says. “If someone cracks how to make that a value to the developer, it could be a good way for people to find games they would otherwise not have been exposed to.”

A NEW VISION FOR PUBLISHING GAMES

Some developers interviewed for this story believe the industry may also see changes around development in the high-budget space.

Specifically, Santiago says the industry faces two massive risks: burnout and talent drain. The first will occur as developers simply get sick of working through crunch-style development processes as they get older, she argues.

The second — talent drain — will naturally occur as those same developers look to leave the industry for good, she says.

“I hear talented engineers and designers saying they always wanted to [make games] but they don’t want the lifestyle,” says Santiago.

“The large software companies are tackling many problems because they want to retain engineers for as long as possible … but the games industry seems very comfortable with using people in their 20s and 30s, burning them out then letting them go.”’

In an industry facing a deluge of independent content, Santiago says that approach will need to change.

Many of those developers may go on to start their own smaller studios, Harvey Smith says (which he points out gets easier as development tool prices drop). He also makes the prediction that new development hubs could pop up in several cities around the world as those same developers look for social safety nets that could help them avoid bankruptcy if they fail.

“I think different countries will have a different approach, and then it becomes a question of … where do you want to be a developer?” says Smith.

A GREATER CONNECTION WITH PLAYERS

The growth of early access development has given developers the ability to create robust and engaged communities to help a game’s chances of success.

Many interviewees say they expect this to continue. But Celia Hodent says developers will need to develop a clearer understanding of that relationship and set strict boundaries — otherwise, they risk negative community reactions that could damage their success.

“Players are not designers … which is not to say their input is not valuable, but our job is to see how people react, and find the problem,” says Hodent.

“So when you have early access, the systems aren’t built out yet. You might want to change things based on feedback but it might not be the right thing to change … you might just be too reactive.”

Other interviewees acknowledged that point and took it further, saying it won’t be enough to understand what players do — they will need to understand why players do it.

Nick Yee says the huge amount of data being generated by games isn’t just helping developers understand what players are doing or how to optimise mechanics, but will help designers probe players’ emotions and then allow customised designs based on those findings.

“For instance, if you know a player isn’t competitive do you do things like de-emphasise the leaderboards and so on?” Yee says.

Some publishers are already experimenting with this. Activision recently received approval for a patent that would allow tailored microtransaction offerings.

Yee sees two major changes happening in the next five years when it comes to using data to understand and shape both players and the communities Hodent mentioned.

The first is experimentation. Just as Riot Games put an analytics team to work in analyzing how to reduce toxic player activity, Yee expects more publishers to invest in this type of large-scale testing to see how and what communities respond.

Secondly, Yee says the shortage of data scientists in the industry is drawing in people from non-gaming backgrounds. In just a few short years, he says, that could have a massive impact on how games are designed and bring fresh, new ideas.

“It will be interesting to see whether there are techniques in other fields that apply well in gaming as well as the question of how much does a gaming expertise matter.”

THE UNDEFINED ESPORTS TIDAL WAVE

While the game industry has become more dominated by esports over the past five years, the next five isn’t an inevitable road to even more popularity.

That’s according to Pieter van den Heuvel, head of product development esports and trends at market intelligence group Newzoo. He says the esports industry should expect a slew of changes as the market evolves.

Firstly, he says the industry will see more acquisitions everywhere: established sports teams will buy esports divisions, media companies will buy businesses that will enable them to make money off viewers, and sponsorship deals will grow.

Secondly, van den Heuvel says esports organizations will start getting serious. “Business sense is becoming more important and more important,” he says, pointing to ESL which hired a former Vodafone executive this year.

Finally, van den Heuvel says the industry will start finding a way to make money from viewers. He points to the fact even though some players might move on to playing a new game they will still watch a variety of titles.

“Think about something like premium camera angles at tournaments,” he says.

Esports moving to consoles and competitive gaming on the Nintendo Switch becoming more popular are two trends he also says will cement themselves in the next five years.

And while publishers are already considering esports elements in development — like how “streamable” a game is — van den Heuvel says this will be brought up more and more while games are in development.

“The reason Battlegrounds is so popular is because Bluehole made a game that was as fun or even more fun to watch than it is to play. That’s something more publishers will do in the future,” he says.

IT’S A MIXED ROAD AHEAD

While some predict that the games industry will undergo massive change, many interviewees say certain aspects will remain. Many expect the PC to be still be as dominant, or even more dominant, than the platform is now.

“It seems to me that PC games will still have its place for a long time. At least as long as we use personal computers to work,” says Hodent.

Santiago agrees. “I don’t see the desire for rich, immersive, long-form game experiences going away,” he says. “There will be new types of games, and new types of players, but I think there will always be a place, and a desire, for these gorgeous worlds we can lose ourselves in.”

But as for the rest of the entertainment experience? That’s up for grabs, says Hodent.

“The living room environment is more likely to change, along with how people consume entertainment. Netflix, for example, has changed a lot how we consume movies and TV shows,” she says.

“I’d expect our consumption of video games to change in a similar way soon.”

Games will change as the average gaming age climbs higher, says Matt Hall.

“I can’t play Overwatch as well as my eight-year-old daughter, but we play together and I think we’ll see a lot more of that come along where games are designed in a way for any age, any disability or any impediment.”

Nick Yee agrees, saying the concept of aging games is “the elephant and the room” and that this will influence gameplay in a big way.

“We now have an entire generation of people who grew up with video gaming who are age 35+, and they’re likely never going to stop gaming,” he says.

“Figuring out how this aging market is different from the traditional focus on age 13-25 gamers will be important, and may usher in new game mechanics and models.

“At the same time, the gaming demographic is broadening in many ways. So opportunities for things like collaborative asymmetric gameplay (across generations even) are emerging.”

Harvey Smith says if you see the forest for the trees, “we’re in an amazing place” when it comes to new ideas.

“Playerunknown’s Battlegrounds … was made by a fairly independently minded guy, and something like Tacoma would have been unthinkable to have that level of quality in an immersive sim even very recently.”

“Imagine being 10 years old and having a class at school where you have access to Unity or Gamemaker?”

Celia Hodent says many predictions are difficult to make because the game industry is at the mercy of the world, which moves at an increasingly fast pace. However, she points to a quote from Nobel laureate Dennis Gabor: “the future cannot be predicted but it can be invented.”

That should be a rallying cry for the industry, Hodent says.

“Could anyone have predicted the clickbait phenomenon, or the fake news phenomenon? It’s hard to predict and even if you pick up on technology it’s hard to tell how it’s going to impact society.

“We have to participate and create the future.”(source: polygon )