移动游戏产业未来预测：4大机遇5大挑战

原文作者：Jon Jordan 译者：Megan Shieh

四大机遇

机遇一：硬件创新

在2020年之前发生的可能性：50%
对移动游戏产业的影响：无

自首款iPhone推出以来，智能手机内部出现了大量技术创新，但在机身方面却变化甚微。不过现在已经有许多公司在研究新机身了（比如弯曲和折叠显示屏），待到这些新机身降价并进入大规模生产时，这种情况就会发生变化。

乔布斯在世时一直很不看好大屏手机；但公众的需求迫使后乔布斯时代的苹果公司做出改变。不过，虽然设备制造商和供应链都在积极推动这种创新，但我们还不确定消费者是否会买账。

毫无疑问，早期采用者们会非常喜爱曲屏手机；但除此之外，我并不认为曲屏能够取代现有的直板式手机设计，毕竟广大消费者在这方面没有很大需求。

回顾可穿戴设备市场的过往，我们几乎可以判断这类事情的发展方向。在苹果手表和谷歌的可穿戴智能设备上市之前，人们猜测这些设备将会大量售出，并有可能衍生出一种新的游戏类型（表游）。然而，尽管苹果手表销量很好，但却未曾在移动游戏领域掀起任何波澜。

机遇二：HTML 5游戏

在2020年之前发生的可能性：100%
对移动游戏产业的影响：不大

我之前并不看好HTML 5，但是随着Facebook Instant Games等即时游戏平台的推出，它极有可能在移动游戏领域中大放异彩。这类平台体现出了HTML 5的许多优势：跨平台发行、即时访问、玩法简单，更重要的是它可以直接利用玩家的社交圈子，因此这类游戏的参与度往往极高。如此看来，Facebook游戏似乎又将迎来另一个黄金时代。

不过HTML 5也存在一些缺陷。因为不是独立的应用程序，所以这些游戏很容易被玩家遗忘或丢失，而要盈利也是几乎不可能的。新游戏能不能在这个领域中获得成功还有待观察；但从长远来看，大型开发商可以利用这个平台来提高现有手游的参与度并将玩家吸引到单独的手游应用程序中，然后再通过应用程序来赚钱。

机遇三：无人驾驶汽车

在2020年之前发生的可能性：10%
对移动游戏产业的影响：较大

Tribeflame首席执行官Torulf Jernstrom在2016年的一篇论文中提到，用户的空闲时间是制约移动游戏产业发展的关键要素。实际上，自2015年以来，平均每天的设备使用量基本保持不变。因此，用户可用时间的任何增长都极有可能提高移动游戏市场的收入。

而无人驾驶汽车就是能够增加用户可用空闲时间的元素之一，这一创新的实现可以为通勤者每天增加两个小时的空闲时间。这点会对北美市场产生特别大的影响，与日本、韩国和西欧等公共交通导向型国家相比，北美的汽车通勤者所占比例要高得多。而且如果需求量大，那么再过个两三年这种转变也会蔓延到全球的许多地区。

机遇四：区块链

在2020年之前发生的可能性：90%
对移动游戏产业的影响：非常大

抛开其他东西不谈，很明显比特币背后的区块链技术有着令人难以置信的潜力，足以扰乱所有的数字生态系统，而游戏产业则很可能是这一改变的先驱。

已经有一些游戏公司在着手研发基于区块链技术的交易了，从皮肤等虚拟物品到整个游戏，所有东西都将是区块链资产，可以被收购、使用和出售。再加上数十家现有和初创游戏公司可能会将区块链技术与自家货币结合，比如EA币（EA Coin）、Blizzard Bucks和Rockstar Razzles，游戏产业将迎来自F2P模式兴起以来最有趣的时期。

我们已经在移动游戏领域中看到了这方面的第一小步。瑞士的EverDreamSoft公司运营着基于安卓系统的一个数字资产交易系统Book of Orbs，该系统支持包括这家公司旗下的《Genesis of Dreams》在内的多款移动游戏。

与此同时，英国游戏《Reality Clash》最近筹集了350万美元，用于开发同名AR移动射击游戏，这将使游戏玩家能够在2018年的第三季度之前就使用其“RCC加密货币”来交易游戏内枪支。（游戏邦注：该作计划于2018年第三季度推出。）

尽管如此，这些预测的发生概率也都仅有90%。人们对于一些主要加密货币普遍缺乏信心，也担心政府会采取相关行动监管或打压加密货币，这些要素都有可能导致金融奔溃。尽管这与区块链技术没有直接关系，但极有可能会延迟该技术的普遍采用。

五大挑战

挑战一：VR/AR

在2020年之前发生的可能性：100%
对移动游戏产业的影响：较小

就在不久前，我们还坚定地认为VR可以成为移动游戏产业的一个巨大商机。但 Oculus Rift 和 Vive 等VR眼镜价格高昂，所以人们将目光转向了Google Daydream和三星的 Gear VR，然而虽然这些硬件价格便宜很多，但它们距离成功似乎还很遥远，而且VR的重点也已经从手游领域转向了更便宜的非移动选项，比如即将推出的独立VR头盔OculusGo。

另一方面，尽管iOS11系统的发布激起了人们对AR的种种期待，而支持AR技术的安卓系统在今年晚些时候也有望推出，但我认为移动AR时代不会那么早到来。

这很可能意味着VR和AR技术的潜力不会通过移动硬件实现，而是会通过更昂贵的专用头盔实现。这可能会给移动游戏产业带来挑战，但这种挑战更多是思维共享层面上的，应该不会阻碍移动游戏产业的实际增长。

挑战二：任天堂Switch

在2020年之前发生的可能性：50%
对移动游戏产业的影响：中等

任天堂预计，直至2018年3月底该公司将售出1700万台Switch；并期望到2019年3月底能售出4000万台Switch。考虑到Wii的1亿台销量，这一预测听起来也不是很离谱。但对移动游戏产业而言，这意味着什么？

尽管在利润丰厚的日本市场，时间和金钱可能会从手游市场直接转移到Switch平台上，但就直接竞争而言，Switch的存在或许不会对整个移动游戏产业产生太大影响。

从普遍意义上讲，Switch带来的会是间接影响，它会从移动游戏市场窃取玩家和开发者的注意力，并将一些原本可以成为热门手游的独立游戏转移到Switch平台上。

挑战三：战利品盒子机制

在2020年之前发生的可能性：50%
对移动游戏产业的影响：较小

在2017年的绝大部分时间里，许多主机游戏其实都存在类似问题，但直到EA准备发布《星球大战：前线2》时，战利品盒子机制才成为了新闻头条。当然，这可能是因为美国玩家中有一小部分人不喜欢这家公司，但在一款付费游戏中套用F2P模式，引起玩家不满也是早晚的事。

目前行业中的许多人认为政府的监管可能会蔓延到手游领域。不过，我的想法就更乐观一些。虽然战利品盒子提供随机奖励，但它不算是赌博（因为你开箱不会开到真钱），而且由于许多移动游戏都已经是F2P模式了，所以玩家对这一机制也不会产生更多反感。

如果真要说有什么影响的话，那就是所有这些麻烦可能会加速主机和端游开发人员向F2P模式的方向发展。

挑战四：屏幕时间

在2020年之前发生的可能性：100%
对移动游戏产业的影响：中等

从数字隐私到社交网络对心理健康的影响等一系列问题，像《Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked（无法抗拒：成瘾性技术的兴起与绑架身心的商业）》这样的书籍正在为人们（尤其是儿童和父母）提供一个框架，教会他们如何驾驭成瘾性产品，尤其是像手机游戏这种触手可得的娱乐产品。

不过，更谨慎地使用这些产品并不意味着移动游戏的收入会下降。正如King在2017年所展示的那样——尽管《糖果粉碎传奇》的每月活跃用户基数出现了下降，但该公司的季度营收仍实现了大幅增长。

人们的担心反而是：移动游戏的巅峰时代可能已经结束了，不会再出现像《愤怒的小鸟》或《糖果粉碎传奇》推出时那样的用户大幅增长和热情了。

挑战五：政策

在2020年之前发生的可能性：10%
对移动游戏产业的影响：大（中国）

目前的全球游戏主要市场包括西方市场、韩国、日本和中国，而中国是重中之重。考虑到中国的人口数量和快速成熟的经济，这并不奇怪；但是，该国的另一特点带来了一些难以量化的挑战。

因此，即使是像腾讯和网易这样的大公司在运营过程中也十分谨慎。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

1 Opportunity: Hardware innovation

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 50 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Zero

It’s ironic that since the first iPhone was released, there’s been incredible technological innovation inside of smartphones. On the outside, however, very little has changed.

That is about to change as radical experiments such as flexible and foldable screens become cheap enough to enter mass market production.

But while device manufacturers and the supply chain are pushing for such innovation, it’s not clear consumers are. Steve Jobs famously didn’t believe in bigger phones but public demand forced change on post-Jobs Apple.

No doubt early adopters will love bendy screens, but I don’t see any wider demand to replace the de facto candy bar design.

Indeed, we can gauge something of how this situation might play out by looking at what happened with the wearables market.

Before Apple Watch and Google’s software-focused Android Wear launched, there was a lot of interest in terms of how many units would be sold and the potential for a new genre of gaming.

Despite a lot of Apple Watches being sold, nothing really happened with respect to mobile gaming, however.

2 Opportunity: HTML5 gaming

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 100 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Low

“Opportunity” and “HTML5 gaming” weren’t phrases I could imagine writing in the same sentence without also including the word ‘not’’ inbetween them.

Nevertheless, in the form of platforms such as Facebook’s Messenger and Instant Games, it appears HTML5 has finally found its place in the world of mobile gaming.

Notably, this is because these incarnations play to HTML5′s strengths: cross-platform distribution, instant access and simple games.

This is why such HTML5 games are driving high levels of engagement, especially as they can leverage players’ social graph. In that regard it’s like 2010’s golden age of Facebook gaming all over again.

There are some issues, of course. Because they’re not apps, these games can easily get lost and forgotten about, and monetisation is almost impossible.

That makes the space interesting for start-up innovation, but only sustainable in the long run for larger developers using it to increase engagement for existing mobile games that can be monetised through app stores.

3 Opportunity: Driverless cars

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 10 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: High

As cited by Tribeflame CEO Torulf Jernstrom in a 2016 opinion piece, time is a key constraint in terms of how the mobile games sector can grow. Indeed, average daily device usage has been broadly static since 2015.

Hence any increase in the amount of time available to the population has a strong potential to grow mobile game revenues.

One such innovation would be the widespread adoption of driverless cars, which could increase commuters’ free time by two hours a day.

This would particularly have a big impact in the key North American market, which has a much higher proportion of car commuters than more public transport-oriented countries such as the big cities in Japan, South Korea and western Europe.

But if the potential is high, it seems likely the transition to a large scale driverless world is more than two years away.

4 Opportunity: Blockchain

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 90 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Very high

Without falling down the rabbit hole of the value of this cryptocurrency against that one, what’s clear is the blockchain technology underlying Bitcoin etcetera has incredible potential to disrupt all digital ecosystems, with the games industry likely to be in the vanguard of change.

Already there are a number of companies developing blockchain-based exchanges, in which everything from skins and other virtual items, to entire games will be blockchain-based assets to be acquired, played and sold on.

More ambitious initiatives foresee integrated development ecosystems based on blockchains: think Unity-meets-Steam on Bitcoin (with steroids).

Throw in the likelihood of dozens of existing and start-up games companies combining this sort of platform approach with the launch of their own currencies – EA Coins, Blizzard Bucks, Rockstar Razzles – and the stage is set for the most interesting period in the the business of gaming since the rise of free-to-play.

And we’re already seeing the first small shoots of this in mobile games. Swiss outfit EverdreamSoft runs Book of Orbs, its Android-based digital asset exchange which supports a number of mobile games, including its own Genesis of Dreams, and other assets.

Meanwhile, UK-based Reality Clash recently raised $3.5 million to develop its eponymous location-based AR mobile shooter, which will enable gamers to trade in-game guns, priced in its RCC cryptocurrency, even before the game goes live sometime in Q3 2018.

That said, there is a small chance – maybe 10 per cent – that widespread loss of confidence in some of the key cryptocurrencies, or concerted government action, could result in a financial collapse, which, although not directly related to blockchain technology, could seriously set back its adoption.

5 Challenge: VR/AR

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 100 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Low

It wasn’t too long ago you could make a strong case for virtual reality being an opportunity for the mobile games industry.

With expensive and complex hardware such as Oculus Rift and Vive stalling, commentators looked to Google Daydream and Samsung’s Gear VR to kickstart the sector.

Despite their much lower price points, however, this just hasn’t happened and the emphasis in VR has switched to cheaper non-mobile options such as the forthcoming Oculus Go.

Similarly with augmented reality. Despite a hyped launch with iOS 11 – and admittedly with Android support still to come in 2018 – the mobile AR revolution is yet to ignite.

Most likely this means the undoubted potential of VR and AR technologies won’t be realised by mobile hardware but through more expensive, dedicated headsets.

6 Challenge: Nintendo Switch

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 50 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Medium

Given Nintendo expects to sell over 17 million Switches by the end of March 2018 and 40 million by the end of March 2019, its long-term prediction of outselling the lifetime total of 102 million Wiis doesn’t now sound so outrageous.

But what does this mean for the mobile games industry?

Probably not much in terms of direct competition, although there could be a direct transfer of time and money from mobile to Switch gaming in the highly lucrative Japanese market.

More generally, however, the likelihood is Switch’s impact will be indirect, stealing both gamer and developer mindshare and perhaps shifting what would have been innovative, small-scale indie mobile games into Nintendo’s embrace.

7 Challenge: Loot boxes

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 50 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Low

For much of 2017, the issue of loot boxes in $60 console games bubbled under and sometimes above the surface chatter. But it wasn’t until EA prepared to release Star Wars: Battlefront 2 that it hit the headlines hard.

Certainly this was partly the result of a vocal minority of US gamers who love to hate the company, but there was also substance in the grievances in terms of the implementation of what effectively was a free-to-play monetisation method within a premium game.

Now, the question becomes, so emboldened, what future impact will this player power have?

Also previously in the spotlight, Bungie has already been backtracking in terms of Destiny 2’s loot box system, and it will be interesting to see how the almost-completed Red Dead Redemption 2 deals with the situation.

More generally across the sector, many now see government legislation as unavoidable. I, however, am more sanguine. While loot boxes offer random rewards, they are not gambling (you can’t win cash), and with mobile games already free-to-play, there can be no further backlash in this particular case from annoyed gamers.

If anything, all this fuss will likely encourage is console and PC developers to move quicker towards a general acceptance of free-to-play.

8 Challenge: Screen time

Likelihood of happening before 2020: 100 per cent
Impact on mobile games sector: Medium

As with the impact of Star Wars: Battlefront 2 on hardcore gamers so, more generally, Western society is starting to rethink its relationship with technology, especially mobile tech.

Part of a wider malaise involving issues ranging from digital privacy to the impact of social networks on mental health, books such as Adam Alter’s Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked are providing a framework to people – especially parents and children – to moderate their use of such highly accessible technology.

Of course, a more deliberate engagement with technology doesn’t mean mobile games revenues will fall. As King demonstrated in 2017, despite Candy Crush Saga’s declining MAU base, it significantly increased revenues quarter-on-quarter.

Yet, the concern remains that the era of mobile games as a sector with a growing and enthusiastic mass market audience- as seen with the likes of Angry Birds and Candy Crush Saga – is probably over.（Source:pocketgamer.biz ）