今年十月真是手机游戏领域的并购黄金月，美国Ngmoco公司以4亿多美元成交价投入日本DeNA公司怀抱，让原来的投资者获得了10倍回报；不过美国艺电（Electronic Arts）却仅以2000万美元左右的低价，轻松将英国发行商Chillingo收编，这种现象似乎表明这一行业的收购规模已呈现缩水的趋势。现在，不少银行家都在怀疑，手机游戏行业的身价是否正处于下跌状态？更重要的是，究竟谁会成为商业大鳄的下一个收购对象？

在回答这个问题之前，我们要先了解这个行业的相关背景资料。据尼尔森调查，苹果iPhone今年8月在美国智能手机市场份额已达26%，首次超过RIM，谷歌操作系统Android的增势更强劲，占领了32%的美国智能手机市场。不管是苹果iOS（包括iPhone、iPad、iTouch）还是Android平台，它们的手机内容中最占优势的都是手机游戏。例如，在过去一个月中，就有61%的美国智能手机用户和54%的英国用户表示曾经玩过一款手机游戏。因此，智能手机的重心从iPhone转向Adroid平台的这种趋势，也极大刺激了企业并购行为。

以下是国际电子传媒行业顾问列维·夏皮罗（Levi Shapiro）总结出的十家最有可能成为收购目标的手机游戏公司名单：

1.Rovio

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这个芬兰开发商所推出的《愤怒鸟》（Angry Birds）在70个国家中雄踞手机游戏榜首，目前下载量已经超过3000万次，其中有1000万次来自付费版本下载。该游戏包括99美分的一次性付费版本和内置付费功能版本。通过AdMob提供的游戏植入广告工具和Rovio自己刊登的广告，该公司每月预计可从付费游戏和广告赞助中创收50万至70万美元。很显然，这是一个具有极大发展潜力的公司，它的目标是实现1亿次的下载量，要知道目前还没有其他选手破过《俄罗斯方块》（Tetris，由美国艺电发行）所创造的这项纪录。就像迪士尼今年初收购iPhone游戏发行商Tapulous（成交额为5000万美元，包括基于财务表现的额外对帐）一样，索尼、派拉蒙（Paramount）、福克斯（20th Century Fox）、华纳兄弟都有可能将《愤怒鸟》搬上银幕，出版图书，开发出掌机游戏或牙刷等相关衍生产品。

2.Unity 3D

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3D技术不再局限于电影，已经延伸到了电视、笔记本电脑、手机和游戏机上。例如，任天堂就已宣布推出了它的祼眼3DS游戏掌机产品。另外，手机卖主也在不遗余力地宣传，他们的原始设备制造厂商，包括夏普、摩托罗拉、LG、东芝等等，都在开发3D手机产品。只是手机内容这里还不见动静—-游戏开发商认为愿意购买3D游戏的手机用户群体还没形成气候。虽然今年全球3D电视销量不太可能超过500万部，但到2015年，新型3D电视的销量应该会到达5000万至8800万部之间。Unity 3D公司为开发商创造了有利的平台，支持他们快速开发和部署网络在线、电视、掌机和手机等平台的游戏。该公司在全球已有20万以上的开发商用户，甚至连美国艺电、迪士尼和可口可乐这类大牌都是他们的客户。对想涉足3D游戏领域的买主来说，Unity 3D应该是一个理想的选择。

3.Greystripe

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据eMarketer调查所称，今年整个手机广告领域的总营收可能不会达到7.5亿美元，比起电视广告预计700亿的营收，实在是微不足道。不过，今年第四季度零售终端、自助服务和消费品品牌的广告活动却有可能大幅增长。这也是苹果斥资2.5亿美元收购Quattro Wireless公司和谷歌出手7.5亿美元抢购AdMob公司的重要诱因。在几家仍保持独立身的手机广告公司中，Greystripe是应用内置广告领域的强者。虽然今年应用商店的下载游戏营收仅占英国手机游戏行业总营收的30%，但苹果App Store的巨大成功，却刺激了从三星电子、Amazon网站等一帮不甘寂寞的公司，它们纷纷加入了这场应用商店大战。对那些准备宣战的巨头来说，收购Greystrip也许是一桩划算的交易。

4.Gypsii

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只要将Gypsii视为Twitter和Foursquare在中国市场的合体，就不难理解这个移动社区网络的概念了。微博在中国还是一个正迅速膨胀但利润还不高的行业。新浪微博是中国本土的Twitter，据称它是中国最大的微博服务网络，自2009年开通以来，已有2000万以上的注册用户。Gypsii通过混合订阅服务和广告营收分成模式，包括本地优惠等服务，与无线运营商结成了合作伙伴关系。在不到两年的时间内，Gypsii就与中国三大运营商都建立了业务联系，用户将近300万人，并与诺基亚、LG、三星、联想和华威预签了合作协议。尽管3G服务在中国起步缓慢，但这个中央王国每月仍有近4亿的手机互联网活跃用户，其中年薪约20万美元、每月在手机服务上至少消费22美元的用户就有5000万人。要知道，互联网、手机和电子商务公司都希望与运营商建立合作关系，而且Gypsii还有大量的潜在用户群体，所以该公司也具有极大的收购价值。

5.Aurora Feint

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苹果虽然有了自己的社交游戏网站GameCenter，但像ngmoco的Plus+平台、德国B2B社交游戏平台Scoreloop之类的第三方社交游戏网站的用户基数却很庞大，GameCenter在这一点上毫无优势。Aurora Feint采用的是跨平台发展策略，在iOS、Android平台都有自己的势力范围，而且是积分排行榜、游戏成就管理、虚拟货币等游戏功能的服务专家。该公司的平台在美国拥有3400款游戏，手机游戏用户超过4500万人，因此是这一领域当之无愧的重量级选手，还获得了中国、日本主要公司以及Intel Capital的投资。该公司正准备扩大用户规模，上一季度还宣布与美国Verizon Wireless合作，提供Android手机游戏推荐服务。

6.Vivox

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 在电子游戏出现之前，大多数人还是习惯跟他人一起玩游戏。除了Vivox之外，很少有公司认识到社交互动的重要性，并且知道为开发商打造一个专门的游戏平台和社交网站，将语音聊天、视频、即时信息工具和存在视觉体验等各项功能结合到一起。Vivox的最大优势在于，它的用户横扫180多个国家，下载安装用户达2500万人，用户每月语音聊天时间超过20亿分钟。Vivox甚至能让语音迅速变成一种商品，相信该公司对大型游戏发行商、虚拟世界或社交网络领域来说，都能发挥巨大作用。

7.Backflip Studios

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很少有游戏开发工作室能像Backflip Studios这样多产优产，该公司游戏目前下载量将近5000万次，每日活跃用户人数是200万。Backflip第一批发行的四款iPhone游戏，《扔纸团》（Paper Toss）、《Graffiti Ball》、《Strike Knight》、《NinJump》各自的下载量都超过了400万次，长期位列苹果应用商店所有产品的前五名。最重要的是，Backflip还通过游戏植入广告（iAd和AdMob），免费游戏在付费游戏的交叉推广，获得了可靠稳定的营收。市场调研公司Flurry估算该公司活跃用户的ARPU（每户平均消费）是1.22美元，因此Backflip是少有的既擅长开发优质游戏，又深谙吸金之道的收购对象。

8.Free App A Day

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 这是一家手机应用推荐网站，主要推广限时免费的iPhone和Android应用。苹果App Store现在的产品已经超过24万款，应用曝光率也因此成了发行商的最大难题，因此Free App A Day所提供的服务对发行商来说十分关键。Free App A Day拥有100万以上的每日活跃用户，而且还是将游戏和应用推向榜单前十名的有力工具。开发商和发行商在某一时段对应用进行免费促销，之后再将价格复原，让限时促销期的强劲下载量补偿发行商的营收损失。然后Free App A Day就会定期从发行商的付费应用中抽取一些分成。

9.Smule

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没有哪一家公司制作的iPhone音乐应用软件可与Smule相媲美。该公司目前融资已达1350万美元，推出了“I am T-Pain”、“Ocarina”、“Glee Karaoke” 和“Leaf Trombone” 等多款成功的iPhone应用，正向iPad应用市场进军。据调查，91%的iPad用户至少已下载过一款应用产品，其中三分之二付费下载应用，从这一点上看，Smule的第一款iPad音乐应用“魔力钢琴”（Magic Piano）可以一炮走红也就不足为奇了。据Smule公司所称，使用该应用演奏《小星星》（Twinkle Twinkle Little Star）这首歌的用户已经超过75万人次，世界著名的钢琴家朗朗也曾在旧金山交响乐团用“魔力钢琴”演奏过《Flight of the Bumblebee》这支曲子。Smule所取得的成就，很可能使它成为下一个Slide（今年8月谷歌以1.82亿美元收购了Slide公司）。

10.Flurry

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虚拟商品交易是在线社交游戏创收的主要途径，手机应用调查公司Flurry本月初公布了一项报告后，人们才得知手机游戏领域也呈现了同样的发展趋势。Flurry的调查网络遍及iPhone和Android平台的5万多家开发商，80%的营收来自微交易的应用内置付费功能，剩下的部分来自广告赞助。尽管今年初曾与苹果乔布斯公开拌过嘴，不过作为一家专业的分析公司，Flurry对尼尔森、Comscore和NPD等大型公司来说仍然具有不小吸引力。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Analyst Angle: M&A in the mobile games sector – who will be next?

October was a busy month for mergers and acquisitions in the mobile games sector. Ngmoco earned a 10-times return for its investors when Japanese mobile game community DeNA paid $400 million. Electronic Arts acquired publisher Chillingo for the bargain basement price of $20 million in cash, suggesting that acquisitions in this sector will be small. Now bankers from Hollywood to Herzeliya are wondering if the mobile games sector is entering the start of “exit utopia” or a desperate sell-off? More urgently, who will be next? Below are ten mobile games companies that might be attractive acquisition targets.

First the context. According to Nielsen, Apple Inc.’s iPhone grabbed 26% of the smart phone market in the United States in August, surpassing Research In Motion Ltd. for the first time. Google Inc.’s mobile operating system is growing even faster, capturing 32% of the U.S. smart phone market. Whether iOS (iPhone, iPad and iTouch) or Android, games dominate mobile content. For example, in the past 30 days 61% of U.S. smart phone owners and 54% of all U.K. mobile subscribers played a mobile game. As a result, the transition from iPhone to Android is stimulating M&A activity. Expect to see some of the following acquired in 2011:

Rovio: The Finnish developer of “Angry Birds” is the No. 1 game in 70 countries with more than 30 million downloads, including 10 million paid downloads. Their strategy includes affordable pricing (99 cents) and ongoing engagement (free updates every 4 weeks). Using AdMob’s in-app advertising tools and their own house ads, Rovio is estimated to be earning $500,000 to $700,000 in monthly paid app and ad-supported revenue. Clearly, this is a company that could scale into a much larger player and has set the lofty goal of 100 million downloads, something only Tetris (Electronic Arts) has achieved. Potential buyers will need to bring scale and reach to migrate an iOS and Android success story into a “Transmedia Property.” Just as Disney bought iPhone game developer Tapulous earlier this year for a reported $50 million (including earn-out), studios like Sony, Paramount, 20th Century Fox and Warner Brothers could soon bring “Angry Birds” to a cinema, bookstore, console game or toothbrush near you.

Unity 3D: 3D has moved beyond the cinema to the TV, laptop, handset and game console. For example, Nintendo announced its glasses-free, 3DS portable game player. Moreover, handset vendors are desperate to distinguish their wares and several original equipment manufacturers – including Sharp Corp., Motorola Inc., LG Electronics Co. Ltd. and Toshiba Corp. – are working on 3D handsets. What is missing is content – game developers don’t see a large audience ready to purchase 3D games. This year, global 3D TV sales are unlikely to surpass 5 million units. However, by 2015 that number should scale to between 50 million and 88 million new 3D TV’s. Unity 3D provides a platform for developers to quickly create and deploy 3D games for online, television, console and mobile. Unity has more than 200,000 registered developers worldwide, including Electronic Arts, Disney and Coca Cola. This could be an interesting strategic acquisition for a variety of players seeking competitive advantage in the 3D gaming sector.

Greystripe: Want to start a “show me the money” discussion on Madison Avenue? Try raising the subject of mobile advertising. The entire sector is projected to reach less than $750 million this year (eMarketer), a pittance compared to the $70 billion on television advertising. However, a growing number of Q4 campaigns from retail, automotive and consumer packaged goods brands suggests rapid growth. This is what inspired Apple’s $250 million acquisition this year of Quattro Wireless and Google’s $750 million purchase of AdMob. Among the remaining independents, Greystripe is strong in the in-app advertising sector. Although games downloaded via app stores will contribute only 30% of U.K. mobile game revenues this year, the success of the Apple App Store has inspired new entrants to the app store fray, from Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. to Amazon.com Inc. Look for Greystripe to get swallowed as the big guys prepare for war.

Gypsii: Think of Gypsii as a combination of Twitter and Foursquare for China. Micro-blogging (weibao) is a booming, although not yet profitable, sector in China. Local Twitter clone Sina Weibo claims to be the largest micro-blogging service in China, with more than 20 million registered users since launching in August 2009. Gypsii uses a hybrid subscription and ad revenue sharing model, including location-aware couponing, to incentivize its wireless carrier partners. In less than two years, Gypsii has deals with all three Chines carriers, nearly 3 million users and pre-load agreements with Nokia Corp., LG, Samsung, Lenovo and Huawei Technologies Ltd. Despite the slow 3G uptake in China, there are nearly 400 million active mobile Internet users in the Middle Kingdom. This includes the 50 million Chinese consumers earning $20,000 annually and spending at least $22 per month on mobile services. Web, mobile and e-commerce (still only $2.5 billion out of last year’s $29 billion online eCommerce sector) companies seeking carrier relationships and a large base of consumers will be very interested in Gypsii.

Aurora Feint: While Apple may have its own social gaming network (GameCenter), third party social gaming networks like Ngmoco’s Plus+ and German business to business social gaming platform Scoreloop have built large user bases. Aurora Feint takes a multi-platform approach, with expertise in iOS (iPhone, iTouch, iPad) and Android and cloud-based game services like leaderboards, achievements and virtual currencies. Aurora Feint’s high traffic numbers in the United States – 3,400 games and over 45 million mobile gamers – make it the volume play in this sector and helped attract investment from major Chinese and Japanese gaming companies as well as Intel Capital. The company is poised to expand its user base with a deal announced last quarter with Verizon Wireless to curate and provide Android game recommendations.

Vivox: Until the advent of video games, humans generally played games with other people. Vivox, and quite a few other players, recognized the importance of social interaction and created a platform for developers and social networks to integrate voice chat, video, instant messaging and presence within the visual experience. The advantage for Vivox is the installed base of 25 million users across 180 countries and 2 billion minutes of monthly voice chat. Even if voice is rapidly becoming a commodity, Vivox’s scale could compliment the expansion goals for large game publishers, virtual worlds or social networks.

Backflip Studios: Few studios consistently crank out hit games. Boulder, Colorado-based Backflip Studios has now had nearly 50 million downloads and a daily active user base of two million. In fact, its first four iPhone releases, including Paper Toss, Graffiti Ball, Strike Knight and NinJump, were all downloaded over four million times and ranked in the top five in Apple’s overall app store lists. Most importantly, Backflip is generating solid revenue through in-app advertising (iAd and AdMob) and cross promoting its paid games via its free games. Considering that research firm Flurry estimates the average revenue generated per online active daily user is $1.22, Backflip brings an interesting revenue base as well as its track record of making popular games.

Free App A Day: Free App A Day is a website, app and community platform for the promotion of paid games on iPhone and Android that are free for a limited period. Apple’s App Store is now loaded with more than 240,000 apps, making discovery one of the biggest challenges facing publishers. The company has over a million active daily users and is now a King Maker for pushing games and apps into the top 10. Developers and publishers give away their apps for free for a limited time. Once these revert to paid status, the promotional effects from the daily push notifications offset the lost publisher revenue. Free App A Day then keeps a share of publisher paid app revenue for a fixed period.

Smule: No one is cranking out hit iPhone music applications like Smule. Having raised $13.5 million and achieved success with iPhone apps like “I am T-Pain,” “Ocarina,” “Glee Karaoke” and “Leaf Trombone,” the developers are now creating iPad versions. Given that 91% of iPad owners have downloaded an application and two thirds paid for these, it is no surprise that Smule already has its first iPad success story in “Magic Piano.” According to Smule, users played one of the songs, “Twinkle Twinkle Little Star,” more than 750,000 times. In fact, world-renowned pianist Lang Lang performed “Flight of the Bumblebee” on Magic Piano at the San Francisco Orchestra. This kind of engagement has many wondering if Smule will be the next Slide, which was acquired by Google in August for $182 million.

Flurry: Although virtual goods are the dominant form of monetization for online social games, until mobile application research firm Flurry released a report earlier this month, few knew that same trend has already come to mobile. Measuring its network of more than 50,000 developers across iPhone and Android, Flurry identified 80% of in-app revenue from micro-transactions, with the rest coming from ads. Despite a highly publicized spat with Steve Jobs earlier this year, as an analytics provider Flurry could be attractive to the likes of Nielsen, Comscore and NPD. Hedging its bets, Flurry has created its own set of tools for helping the developer community integrate virtual currency into their activities.（source:rcrwireless）