作者：Martin Macmillan（Pollen VC CEO）

得益于“长尾”玩家所贡献的利润，中级手机游戏开发者获得可观收益的时代终于到来了。

让我们先从供应方切入分析。

各类新应用源源不断出现的情况清楚表明，当前的应用经济正繁荣发展（游戏邦注：据Pocket Gamer报道，iTunes App Store每天都会新增约1400款应用）。简而言之，应用市场一直在发展壮大——目前毫无减缓的势头。

从需求方来说，新调查结果表明中小型应用开发者实现创收的机遇降临了。

分析公司MIDiA Research最近调查结果显示，当前许多游戏热作已经无法再虏获新用户。其调查总监Mark Mulligan指出，这些所谓的超级明星应用“虽然在获取新用户方面已经停滞不前，但依然牢踞榜单前列。”

这种用户增速减缓的现象表明，过于依赖老本及热作的现象已经不再是应用市场的发展趋势。少量榜单热作掌握多数收益的现象将不复存在，取而代之的是更多开发者将获得更多创收机会。

Longtail-developers-by-income-bracket(from Pollen VC)

乍一看，这种观点似乎有悖市场分析和战略公司Vision Mobile所推出的Developer Economics调查结果（其调查基于143个国家/地区的8000名受访者）。Vision Mobile在2015年第一季度的报告中指出，全球仅有24%应用开发者月收益达到1000美元至1万美元，“（应用市场）整体收益不足以支持50%以上的开发者”（52%受访开发者声称自己月收益不足1000美元）。

但如果提出截然不同的问题，并调查不同的数据（例如具体应用商店数据，而非应用开发者的月收益，毕竟有相当数量的开发者并不愿意透露实际收入），就可以发现一个更为乐观的应用市场前景。

Pollen VC内部调查结果表明，在过去7个月中，有能力通过开发应用实现可观收益的小型开发者数量增长明显。

这个与Priori Data（移动应用市场分析公司）联合展开的调查项目搜集了应用商店相关数据和“高排名”应用（游戏邦注：即长期列位iTunes App Store畅销榜单前列的应用）的情况，以便追踪处于“长尾”部分的开发者数量发展及其月收益增长情况。这项调查追踪的是从2014年9月至2015年8月的数据。

以下是主要调查结果：

*月收益介于1000至5000美元的发行商数量在2014年9月为5600家，2015年4月已增长12%，达到6300家。

*月收益介于5000至1万美元的发行商则从原来的2000家，增长5%达到2100家。

*月收益介于1万至5万美元的发行商从3100家增长6%，达到3300家。

*月收益于于5万至10万美元的发行商从原来的740家增长3%，达到760家。

*拥有产品跻身前200名榜单的发行商数量则增长18%，达到3.3万家（2014年9月这一数据是2.8万）。

进行一番计算就可以得知，独立开发者的应用也在发展并实现创收，并且其增长势头并无减缓趋势。

例如PuzzleSocial旗下应用《Daily Celebrity Crossword》（运行于Facebook、iOS、Android和Kindle平台）是全球收益排名第一的数字纵横字谜游戏应用。该公司首席执行官Jeb Balise将其成功归结于“有意关注长尾用户，每天都创造新内容吸引玩家重返游戏”的举措。

他将赌注押在吸引谜题玩家和休闲玩家的这个做法奏效了。在2014年12月，PuzzleSocial在A轮融资中获得300万美元，他在今年1月份称这款应用日活跃用户约5万人（半数用户安装第二天还会重返游戏），日均收益介于6000至7000美元。在3月份，该公司日活跃用户达到10万，日均收益为1.5万美元。

当然，拥有一个出色的游戏理念只能算是成功了一半。长尾应用开发者还必须创建可靠的用户基础。正如Balise所言，“专注于为玩家创造重返游戏的理由，可以让应用开发者赢得最宝贵的资产——时间。如果你的用户还会随着时间发展重返游戏，那么你就可能从中找到盈利方法。”

不幸的是，时间总是很短暂。

对于长尾开发者来说，赢得这种时间十分重要。在此之前他们需要支撑自身发展，但却无法弥补这其中的时间差（可能达到60天甚至更久）——即进行销售与获得应用商店收益之间的时间差距。这也是加快进入应用商店的一种模式，应用内收益有可能让长尾应用开发者实现更大的抱负。

另一方面，Mulligan预测称现在就是长尾应用开发者实现更高追求的时机。他指出业内对少数开发者所创造的巨大成功的盲目追求创造了所谓的“泡沫经济”——这种发展模式会推动“市场重新洗牌”。

只要长尾开发者抓住机遇，将优秀的应用理念转化为成功并具有可持续性的项目，他们就有可能推动行业格局的逆转，实现长尾开发者数量及收益增长。

Good news for mobile indie developers determined to make it big

Martin Macmillan, Pollen VC CEO

A middle class of mobile game developers making significant money is finally emerging — thanks to the preferences of lucrative players from the “long tail.”

Let’s start with the supply-side of the equation.

The steady stream of new apps across a growing number of categories (at the rate of roughly 1,400 new apps per day in the iTunes App Store alone, according to mobile gaming news blog Pocket Gamer) is a clear indication that the app economy is strong. Simply put, the app market is growing — and it shows no signs of slowing any time soon.

On the demand-side, new research reveals a shift that could spell opportunity for small and savvy app developers determined to make it big.

A review of the dominant grossing apps from MIDiA Research, an analyst firm focused on the business of paid content, reveals many of today’s blockbuster games are not acquiring new audiences. As research director Mark Mulligan puts it, these so-called superstar apps are “clinging onto their chart positions despite the fact their new audience acquisition has, in many cases, fallen off a cliff.”

At one level, the slowdown is a sign that the app marketplace is moving away from overdependence on legacy titles and one-hit-wonders. Dig deeper and conditions are coming together to produce a “perfect storm” that will potentially replace a situation where too few apps have been able to take most of the revenues, with one where more app developers will have more chances to make more money.

A look at the performance of “long tail” developers by bracket.

At first glance, this runs counter to the Developer Economics research series produced by market analysis and strategy firm Vision Mobile. Based on a survey of 8,000 respondents from 143 countries, The State of the Developer Nation Q1 2015 report  concludes that only 24 percent of app developers globally earn between $1,000 per month and $10,000 per month. Read between the lines, Vision Mobile writes, and “total revenues are unsustainable for over 50 percent of developers.” (Specifically, 52 percent of the developers surveyed say they make less than $1,000 per month.)

But frame the question differently and examine a different data set (namely, concrete app store data, not the input of app developers willing to reveal their monthly revenues), and a much more positive picture of the app economy emerges.

In fact, internal research from Pollen VC reveals that the last seven months have seen a significant rise in the number of small app developers able to make a good living monetizing their great apps.

The research program, together with Priori Data, a mobile application market analytics company, draws on app store data and a review of “ranked” apps — those that have been listed among the top grossing apps in the iTunes App Store — to track growth in the number of long tail developers and map their monthly revenues. The program tracked data from September 2014 to April 2015.

Among the initial findings:

The number of publishers making between $1,000 and $5,000 monthly has increased 12 percent to reach 6,300 publishers in April 2015, up from 5,600 in September 2014.

The number of publishers earning $5,000 to $10,000 per month has increased 5 percent to reach 2,100, up from 2,000.

The number of publishers earning between $10,000 and $50,000 per month has increased 6 percent to reach 3,300, up from 3,100.

Moving up into the top income brackets, publishers earning between $50,000 and $100,000 per month have increased 3 percent to reach 760, up from 740. (Plans are also in the pipeline to extend the research program to track and map the elite group of Long Tail app developers who are at the top of their game, pulling in a cool $1 million or more a year.) Finally, the number of publishers with apps in the top 200 increased 18% to reach 33,000 in April 2015, up from 28,000 in September 2014.

Do the math and the number of indie developers making serious money with their apps is growing, and like the app economy they power, shows no signs of slowing.

Case in point: PuzzleSocial, whose Daily Celebrity Crossword app (available on Facebook, iOS, Android, and Kindle devices) reigns as the No.1 grossing digital crossword app on the planet. It’s hard-won success that PuzzleSocial CEO Jeb Balise chalks up to his early decision to “deliberately focus on the long tail by creating engaging fresh content every day for players to come back to.”

His bet on an app that combines fresh content with gaming — thus appealing to puzzle junkies and casual gamers alike — has paid off. In December 2014 PuzzleSocial raised $3 million in Series A funding, in a round led by KiwiTech that included new investments from all seed stage investors, including former HBO president Thayer Bigelow and Mark Wachen of Upstage Ventures, among others.

In January, Balise tells me, the app counted roughly 50,000 daily active users (with half of those users coming back the day after install), and generated an average of between $6,000 and $7,000 per day. In March, his company “hit 100,000 [daily active users] and $15,000 per day in revenue.”

Of course, having a good idea is just half the battle. Long tail app developers also have to build a dedicated user base loyal to their app. As Balise puts it, “Focusing on giving players a reason to come back every day gives an app developer the most valuable asset, which is time. If you have users coming back over time, then you can figure out how to monetize them with success.”

Unfortunately, time is also in short supply.

At one level, it’s a stretch for Long Tail app developers who need to fund their growth cycle but can’t bridge the gap — a period that can be up to 60 days or more — time between making a sale and getting paid by the app store. It’s also where a model that accelerates access to app store and in-app revenues could potentially allow long tail app developers to pursue big ambitions for their apps.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mulligan over at MIDiA Research forecasts that the timing is right for long tail app developers to aim higher with their apps. He points out that the pursuit of mega-hit success by a handful of developers has created what calls “bubble economics” — a development that is driving a complete “realignment of the market place”.

It’s a seismic shift that potentially plays in favor of a long tail of app developers destined to grow in both numbers and in the amount of revenues they can generate from in-app purchases as they grasp the opportunity to turn their winning app concepts into successful and sustainable app businesses.（source：venturebeat）