作者：Ethan Levy

据动视最近财报显示，《Hearthstone-Heroes of Warcraft》注册用户已达1000万。除了一系列的暴雪作品，《Hearthstone》的发布也极大推动了动视的数字游戏业务收益增长，34%的动视最近季度收益来自数字业务。该游戏的iPad版本成了我今天最期待的F2P游戏。在这个由少数题材主导，充斥大量克隆游戏的市场中，这款游戏无疑为之注入了一股清新、高品质而怀旧的力量。

我在这款游戏中以免费和付费玩家的身份投入了20多个小时进行研究。它显然为暴雪创造了相当数量的收益。据App Annie数据显示，在手机应用收益前5大市场中，《Hearthstone》过去7天在畅销榜单表现强劲，它在美国的平均排名为第12位，在日本则是109名，在韩国是第1名，在英国为12名，在德国为第8名。这些排名对任何公司来说都不容小觑。这份报告的目的是对这款游戏进行分析，并提出一些有助于《Hearthstone》转变成动视下一款十亿美元热作的建议。

在我正式分析之前，我要先提供自己的方法论以及这20个小时游戏过程中的一些情况。我将前5个小时用于学习模式，作为免费玩家尝试不同的功能和种族。还有5个小时作为免费玩家认真体验单个牌组。我整合了一个Rogue牌组，并将自己的时间划分为休闲和竞争排名玩法。我花了1个小时和100美元转变为高价值的付费玩家。这个时间用于开启内容包和整合Warlock及Priest牌组。我以休闲和竞争排名的方式在自己的新型付费大牌组上花了5小时。为获取经验，我还花了4小时体验4次进入Arena的过程。以下就是我在这段时间中的相关情况：

*比赛玩法–112次（54次胜，58次输）

*投入金钱–106美元

*赢取金子–550个（花掉500个）

*开打内容包–91个（赢取11个，购买80个）

*最级排名–持盾卫士（位列20名）

*最佳竞技成就–4次获胜（Hunter身份）

1.盈利分析

《Hearthstone》在畅销榜单上表现已经极为出众，因其高品质、趣味元素、品牌辨识度以及过硬题材，它很可能成为暴雪连续数年位居畅销榜单前100名的常青树。但是，比起我作为盈利设计顾问在过去两年中所玩的任何游戏，《Hearthstone》更有机会在畅销榜单上击败Supercell和King热门游戏。我们将在此文探讨有助于《Hearthstone》成为动视下款十亿美元大作的功能。

1.1社交粘性

鉴定问题

我回想起自己孩童时其所玩的集换卡牌（TCG），那时的社交纽带是我投入该游戏题材的重要因素。我和小伙伴们常在放学后一起玩《万智牌》，而不是参与我更容易被高年级，更有战略性的玩家所打败的竞赛活动。在宽带开始普及之前的岁月中，我还曾与好友在电话中玩《万智牌》。我好友圈中所玩的游戏决定了我投入时间和金钱的游戏类型，我选择玩90年代中期的Marvel TCG而非《星球大战》或其他任何类似《万智牌》的游戏，纯粹是因为我的好友也在玩此类游戏。

然直到我玩《Hearthstone》的这20多个小时将近尾声时，我才发现它实际上是个好友列表。我也清楚游戏内置聊天系统很可能创造更多极消的极端现现，而不仅仅是社交互动的益处。但对于一款PvP游戏来说同，《Hearthsone》在与其他玩家互动方面所发挥的作用还是太小了。

建议解决方案

令《Hearthstone》更具社交性可以让它成为更具粘性的游戏，提升长期留存率以及盈利性。我建议其多人模式进行3项提升以便令游戏更具社交性。

我的第一个建议是增强同个地理位置的好友联系。TCG的一个奇怪的缺乏功能就是向其他玩家或好友赠送礼物、交易或拍卖卡牌的功能。鉴于《暗黑破坏神III》拍卖行的人气来看，我想暴雪是不可能在《Heartstone》中植入一个类似的系统。但是，在我的WiFi网络同其他玩家自由地交换卡牌应该是一个鼓励朋友们一起游戏的强大功能。与此相似，黄金奖励任务也可以鼓励同个地理位置的玩家一起玩游戏，从而建立起能够维持长期留存率的强大社交纽带。

第二个建议就是植入一些病毒功能，以便鼓励游戏安装量。例如，可用好友代码系统以高级装备奖励邀请好友加入游戏并获得特定等级的玩家（例如，X等级至少一个英雄）。此外，还可以让玩家在每周结束时，因邀请一名在本周成为活跃玩家的好友而赢取一次免费的Arena入场券。

第三个建议就是植入公会系统。对于F2P领域的硬核游戏来说，社交活动是推动《Clash of Clans》以及《Modern War》等游戏收益的重要功能。植入公会系统也可以为《Hearthstome》推翻《Clash of Clans》领先地位增加筹码。

1.2社交竞争活动

鉴定问题

开启《Hearthstone》成为（未来5年）十亿美元热作的一个关键就是公会和基于公会的活动。团队玩家之间的竞争是F2P游戏的一个重要功能。例如，《Modern War》中的榜单据称就在举活动期间推出游戏日常收益增长600%。《魔兽世界》的叙事背景已经用公会突袭的形式为公会和基于公会的竞赛活动创造了基础。这一切所需要的就是巧妙地植入能够提升玩家粘性和收益的公会及其活动。

建议解决方案

最简单的竞赛形式是基于时间的积分排行榜，以便个人和公会发挥最出色的表现，并根据其表现提供分级和独家奖励。最具盈利性的竞争通常包括一些易消耗使用，导致这些关心个人或团队排名的玩家消费的道具。这种结构与WoW的公会突袭概念相得益彰，可为《Hearthstone》创造完美的竞赛活动。

公会突袭的一个可行性植入方式就是用强大的牌组，定制英雄力量以及庞大的命值，甚至是一些谜题元素鼓励玩家与一系列敌人展开每周挑战。公会突袭活动具有一个限时准入货币——玩家可以免费获得一个限时4小时的入场券，或者用金子/真钱来购买。如果玩家是公会的一名成员，他们的进程就会与公会等级相同。玩家无论在突袭活动中遇到什么敌人，而敌人的命值正好又是满格时，公会中所有玩家的的力量都会有所削弱。

每周公会突袭（也许一周仅开放3天）可以生成一个公会及个人积分排行榜。除了公会中的玩家每次征服一个敌人所获得的奖励之外，他们的表现也会让公会获得一个有利于对抗其他公会的整体积分。在竞赛的最后，玩家会根据自己公会的地位以及个人表现而分配一定的积分。他们的排名越高，奖励就越大。

这个系统的关键就在于易消耗性元素。就像Arena一样，玩家可以免费参与公会突袭。但如果他们真的很看中整体排行榜位名次或者奖励，他们就得花些真钱增加自己成为第一名的机会。

1.3竞争型活动

鉴定问题

虽然我从来没有从芝加哥市郊飞到密尔沃基参加GenCon，我另一项爱好是在周末参加业余爱好竞赛（我通常很快就出局了）。这种竞争很刺激，能够增强你已经在玩的游戏体验。它们是一种TCG题材，并且可以为《Hearthstone》带来引进另一种高盈利功能的机会。这种竞赛可以作为公会突袭的一种补充，以吸引好胜型而非团体主义的玩家。

建议解决方案

一些日常活动是F2P游戏的普遍功能。例如，《X战警：原子之战》就含有大量、定时的日常战役活动，玩家只能在特定时间轴内加入。与之相似，《Hearthstone》也可以从这种日常安排的竞赛活动中受益。也许可以每隔4小时展开一项大型竞赛（也许可以采用一种加速机制，例如每个英雄20而非30个命值，从而减少游戏长度）。

这种竞赛可能成为增强版的Arena模式。玩家可以花375个金子/5美元购买入场券，抽取一个牌组，并随着游戏进程的发展而获得更多奖励。在每周结束时，那些在当周日常竞赛中排名前列的玩家还可以免费参加另一项竞赛。除此之外，游戏还可以展开每月或季度决赛，以及年度性、需要花大价钱的总决赛。从Arena赢得金子的高手玩家可以用自己赢取的货币参加这些竞赛，但其他玩家则必须增加自己的总投入才能参与这些盛会。

1.4提升表现

鉴定问题

我在《Hearthstone》中遇到了两个意外的消极元素：技能表现和UI部署。我是在第三代iPad上玩游戏，但却发现该游戏在技术层面上的表现上很糟糕。切屏很缓慢，并且会在关键时刻（例如战斗结束时）停滞。对于一款使用Unity引擎开发，并且多为2D体验的游戏来说，我认为该游戏无法顺畅运行的表现着实令人意外。

这还只是一个次要问题，但其UI流程和功能的问题则加剧了这种消极影响。该游戏使用了一个令元素转场令人烦恼不已的中心模型，导致玩家每次转向下个区域之前都必须重返主菜单。另一个较少但不幸的细节就是每个屏幕实际游戏区域之外的地方并没有呈现访问相关牌组的按钮。

洗牌本身就是一项琐事。我更深度进入游戏体验之后，就惊讶地发现游戏并不会让你轻易删除牌组，也不允许你自定义给牌组命名。有些时候我甚至得通过抽取每牌的UI元素，才能够获得一个空白板来重置牌组。

这些还都是次要问题，对收益不会有太大影响。但它们组合起来却可能对留存率产生一个中度的消极影响（最终也可能影响到收益）。这些小过失都在向玩家传达一个信息：游戏主要是以桌面版本来设计的。

建议解决方案

技术问题可能还不会对盈利产生巨大而直接的影响。但是修复这些问题却可以《Hearthstone》获得更广泛的旧版iOS及各种Android设备用户。此外，性能表现及UI流的提升也可以让游戏更有趣。该游戏体验可以通过提升技能表现，修改UI来优化，令洗牌过程更加简单快捷。

1.5 手机版本

鉴定问题

目前，《Hearthstone》还只是iPad设备独家发布版本，而游戏中的UI却主要是一种装饰，从实用性角度来看这是一种浪费空间的行为。我认为鉴于iPhone设备的升级情况，该游戏还是有可能进军更小的屏幕。

建议解决方案

《Hearthstone》应该推向iPhone和Android手机、平板电脑。这不但可以通过增加用户基础来提高收益，还可以进一步打击那些试图模拟的山寨者，关闭它们在这些平面现身的机会。

2.《Hearthstone》采用付费获胜的策略？

此外，我还想分析高价值玩家的身份对我在《Heartstone》中游戏表现的影响。F2P游戏备受硬核玩家及媒体诟病的一大问题就在于，它们采用付费获胜的伎俩，所以是于盒装游戏一等。鉴于其出色的质量和趣味因素，我所听闻的关于《Hearthstone》的讨论似乎都能宽容它的盈利性。

毫无疑问，《Hearthstone》就是付费获胜的游戏。就像扑克牌一样，这里掺杂着不少运气元素，其配对结果也会在每次洗牌时迅速变化。在每回合较量中，完全免费的玩家也可能打败技能相当的付费玩家。但是，从长期来看，付费玩家却拥有独特的洗牌优势，从而增加自己获胜的机率。

撇开我头5个小时训练时间，我的成就记录是，免费玩家获胜7次，输20次，获胜率为26%。而作为付费玩家时，我获胜15次，输15次，获胜率为50%。在排名玩法中，作为免费玩家我有33%获胜率，在输掉6次后排在第23名。作为付费玩家，我轻松地在5个小时标记之前以53%的获胜率上升至第20名。如果我愿意从自己的核心种族中创建一个更为强大的牌组，或者花更多钱购买更高级的内容包，我肯定就可以凭借自己Priest牌组的优势继续获得排名上升。

从我的记录来看，显然我不是技能最高超的《Hearthstone》玩家，而游戏也并非完全采用付费获胜策略。花100美元并不能保证你轻松获胜。但它的确让我获得了相对于免费玩家的强大优势。与许多F2P游戏一样，通过付费购买牌组，我无需成为更有经验更有策略的玩家，就可以人为地提升了自己的技能曲线。

对于其他拥有多人元素的F2P游戏来说，最有趣的是《Hearthstone》的Arena模式。在Arena模式中，玩家会花1.99美元或150个金子购得入场券，创造一个随机牌组，并玩到自己输掉3次为止。在该模式的最后，玩家就可以获得基于自己获胜表现次数的奖励。玩家实际上是在付费跳过付费获胜的环节，面对其他运气和技能相当的玩家挑战。这个模式很有趣并且极具吸引力，而1.99美元的Arena入场券也是目前仅次于9.99美元换购7张卡牌内容包的第二大热门选项。投入1.99美元抽取一个牌组并迅速输掉3场战役的经历令人失望，但即便如此我也还是可以得到至少1个高手牌组的奖励，其价值相当于1.5美元。

后续

发布上述内容后，我继续玩《Hearthstone》，多数时候是使用排名玩法，使用我的高价值Priest牌组。我积累了大量获胜经历，目前排名第14位，拥有3颗星。我没有在牌组上再花任何钱，甚至也没有再打开任何内容包。

许多读者评论说《Heartstone》并非付费获胜的游戏，并引用Trump这种异常玩家（游戏邦注：他仅使用免费卡牌就获得了Legendary身份）的经历声称，高价值付费玩家一开始可能会有优势 ，但随着时间发展这种优势最终会消失。

我对于付费获胜的定义就是，花钱并不是让你摁下一个按钮就马上获胜（但有些F2P游戏的确如此），而是让你获得超越（投入时间和精力像你一样的）免费玩家的明显优势 。

让我们假设，有人在数周时间内花了100个小时赢取了和我这种投入100美元的玩家一样的装备。在头100个小时中，付费玩家所拥有的优势极大超过了免费玩家。虽然有相当数量的玩家在这款游戏中投入了这种数量的时间和精力，但我相似一般玩家很少达到这种程度。因此，对于该游戏不甚投入的玩家来说，这款游戏具有较强的付费获胜元素。

但这却并不会削弱《Heartstone》的质量和趣味因素。作为欢迎游戏内置盈利元素的设计师，我认为《Hearthstone》是一款杰出的游戏，我相信它会成为暴雪的常青树，在未来数年长居畅销榜单前列。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Hearthstone – Heroes of Warcraft monetization analysis

by Ethan Levy

As trumpeted by the recent Activision earnings report, Hearthstone – Heroes of Warcraft is off to an incredible start with 10 million registered users. Alongside a stable of Blizzard titles, Hearthstone’s launch has helped drive record digital revenues within Activision; 34% of all Activision revenue for the recently completed quarter comes from digital sources. As both a childhood Magic: The Gathering enthusiast and a monetization design consultant, Hearthstone’s release on the iPad has been one of my most anticipated F2P games this year. In a market dominated by a small number of genres, flooded with me-too clones, the game promised a welcomed blend of fresh air, quality and nostalgia.

I spent 20 hours with Hearthstone as both a free and paying player to research this analysis. The game is clearly driving a significant amount of revenue for Blizzard. In the top 5 countries for mobile app revenue, Hearthstone has performed strongly on the top grossing charts over the past seven days with average positions per country of 12 (US), 109 (Japan), 1 (South Korea), 12 (UK) and 8 (Germany) according to App Annie. These are ranks any company would be ecstatic over. The purpose of this report is to analyze the game and suggest features that will help turn Hearthstone into the next member of Activision’s billion-dollar club.

Before I dive into the analysis, I want to provide my methodology and some stats on the 20 hours of play. For the first 5 hours I was in learning mode, playing as a free player trying out the various features and classes. The second 5 hours I played as free player trying to get serious with a single deck. I assembled a Rogue deck and split my time between casual and ranked play. I then spent 1 hour and $100 transitioning to a high-value payer. This time was spent opening packs and assembling Warlock and Priest decks. I spent 5 hours with my new, big spender decks in casual and ranked play. To cap off the experience, I spent 4 hours playing four admissions to the Arena. Here are some stats on my time:

Matches played – 112 (54 wins, 58 losses)

Dollars spent – $106

Gold earned – 550 (500 spent)

Packs opened – 91 (11 earned, 80 purchased)

Ending rank – Shieldbearer (rank 20)

Best Arena streak – 4 wins (as Hunter)

1. Monetization analysis

Hearthstone is already performing extremely well on the top grossing charts, and thanks to its high quality, fun factor, name brand recognition and proven genre, the game is likely to be an evergreen success for Blizzard that remains on the top 100 grossing chart for years. However, more than any game I have played in the last two years as a monetization design consultant, Hearthstone has the opportunity to knock Supercell and King from the lofty positions on top of the charts. The rest of this article suggests features that can help turn Hearthstone into Activision’s next billion-dollar franchise.

1.1. Social engagement

Issue identified

When I think back to the many hours of my adolescence playing trading card games (TCG), social bonds were critical to my engagement and spend within the genre. Magic: The Gathering was more about hanging out with my friends after school than participating in hobby store tournaments where I would get knocked out easily by older, more strategic players. Embarrassingly enough, in the days before broadband was common place, I used to play Magic over the phone with my friend (and now world traveling pro player) Sam Black. The games my circle of friends played determined where I spent my time and money; my choice to dive into the mid-90s Marvel TCG over Star Wars or any other me-too trying to jump on the Magic bandwagon was purely determined by what my friends were playing.

It was not until the end of my 20 hours of play I even discovered that Hearthstone has a friends list. I understand how in-game chat is likely to create more negative externalities through toxic play than benefits through social interaction. Still, for a PvP game, Hearthstone is too light on the ability to interact with other players.

Proposed solution

Making Hearthstone more social will make it a stickier game, driving long term retention and therefore monetization. I suggest three improvements to multiplayer in order to make Hearthstone better with friends.

My first suggestion is to enhance Hearthstone for players in the same physical location. A curiously absent feature for a TCG is the ability to gift, trade or auction my cards to other players or friends. Given the hoopla surrounding the Diablo III auction house, I anticipate Blizzard is unlikely to institute a similar system for Hearthstone. However, the ability to trade cards freely with another player on my wifi network would be a powerful feature to encourage friends to play together. Similarly, gold rewarding quests tailored at encouraging players to play in the same physical location would create the strong social bonds that build long term retention.

My second suggestion is to implement some form of viral feature to encourage installs. For instance, a friend code system could be used to reward a player with an expert pack for every friend who joins Hearthstone and achieves a certain play milestone (eg. level X with at least one hero). Alternatively, a player could earn free Arena passes at the end of every week for each invited friend who has been an active player that week.

My third suggestion is to implement guilds within Hearthstone. For core games in the F2P space, social events are the feature driving the incredible revenue of games like Clash of Clans and Modern War. It is the implementation of guilds that will empower Hearthstone to topple Clash from its lofty perch.

1.2. Socially competitive events

Issue identified

The key to unlocking Hearthstone’s potential to be a billion-dollar franchise (over the next 5 years) is guilds and guild-based events. Competition between teams of players is an incredibly important feature in F2P. For instance, the chart dominating Modern War has publicized a 600% increase in average daily revenue when running events. Given the setting within World of Warcraft, the narrative wrapping already exists for guilds and guild-based competitive events in the form of Raids. All that is needed is a clever implementation that will drive player engagement and revenue.

Proposed solution

At its simplest, an event is a time-limited leaderboard for individuals and guilds to perform the most of a particular action, with tiered and exclusive rewards depending upon performance. Highly monetizing events are ones that include some form of consumable use that leads to spending for those players who care about their individual or team rank. This structure pairs naturally with the concept of WoW’s Raids to create the perfect event for Hearthstone.

A possible implementation of Raids is a weekly challenge against a sequence of enemies with powerful decks, custom hero powers and astronomical health, perhaps with some puzzle elements. A Raid would have a time limited entry currency – a player may get one free, non-stacking Raid ticket every 4 hours or they can buy one with gold or real dollars. If the player is part of a guild, their progress occurs at the guild level. The player faces whoever the current enemy in the Raid sequence is, and the enemy’s health is a global pool that all players in the guild whittle down collectively.

The weekly Raid (perhaps only open for 3 days during a week) would have a guild and individual leaderboard. In addition to being rewarded each time a player’s guild conquers an enemy in the Raid (with a large reward for defeating the Raid boss), their performance gives the guild a global score that ranks them against other guilds. At the end of the event, rewards are distributed to players based on the placement of their guild as well as individual performance in the event. The higher their ranking, the bigger the reward.

The key to this system is the consumable element. Just like the Arena, players can participate for free and enjoy Raids. But if topping the global leaderboard and reaping the reward is important to a player or guild, then they will spend real dollars for the opportunity to be number one.

1.3. Competitive events

Issue identified

Although I never made the trek from suburban Chicago to Milwaukee for GenCon, another staple of my Magic days was participation in weekend, hobby-shop tournaments (where I usually washed out quickly). Tournaments are exciting, heightened events that enhance the experience of playing a game you already love. They are a staple of the TCG genre and another opportunity to introduce a highly monetizing feature into Hearthstone. A tournament can be a complementary style of event to Raids by appealing to competitive individuals instead of team oriented players.

Proposed solution

Some flavor of daily event is a common feature in F2P games. For instance, X-Men: Battle of the Atom features multiple, scheduled, daily battle events that a player can only join within a specific timeframe. Similarly, Hearthstone would benefit from daily, scheduled tournaments. Perhaps every 4 hours a massive, double elimination tournament begins (possibly with a quickening mechanic, like 20 health per hero instead of 30 to cut down game length).

This tournament would be a turbocharged version of Arena mode. A player would purchase entry for 375 gold or $5, draft a deck, and play for increasing rewards the further into the bracket they progress. At the end of each week, there could be a free, Twitch streamed and announced tournament for the top X placed players from each daily tournament. Additionally, the year would be punctuated with massive monthly or quarterly finals, as well as an annual, big money cash tournament. Skilled players who rake in gold from Arena wins and event participation would be able to enter these tournaments with earned currency, but other players would end up increasing their overall spend to participate in these exciting events.

1.4. Performance improvements

Issue identified

Given the Blizzard pedigree, I experienced two unexpectedly negative elements of Hearthstone during my time with the game: technical performance and UI implementation. Playing on a 3rd Generation iPad, I was surprised at how poorly the game performs from a technical perspective. Transitioning from screen to screen was slow with hangs and pauses at key moments (like the end of the battle). For a game built on the proven Unity engine with a largely 2D experience, I was surprised that the game did not run smoother.

This is a minor issue, but the negative effect is compounded by issues with UI flow and functionality. The game uses a hub and spoke model that makes transitioning from element to element an annoyance, since the player constantly has to return to the main menu before moving to other areas. Another small, but unfortunate detail is that a button to access the deck builder is not present on every screen outside an actual round of play.

Deck building itself is a chore. As I got deeper into the experience, I was surprised to discover that there is no easy way to delete a deck, nor can I give a deck a custom name [edit: thanks to a commenter I found that there is a way to rename and delete decks, but that it was a relatively hidden interaction for a touch based interface with no mouse hover]. Several times I had to reset a deck by literally dragging each card off of the deck UI element so I could begin with a blank slate.

These are all minor issues, unlikely to have a major impact on revenue. Bundled together, they may have a modest, negative effect on retention (and therefore revenue). However, these peccadillos collectively communicate to the player a game that was built primarily with a desktop frame of mind.

Proposed solution

Technical fixes may not have a large, direct effect on monetization. However, fixing these issues will enable Hearthstone to reach a larger, more global audience of older iOS and varied Android powered devices. Also, performance and UI flow improvements will make the game more joyful to play, even if only in a subtle way. The experience of Hearthstone would be improved by speeding up technical performance, modifying the UI so that the deck builder is always a single tap away and making deck building a significantly smoother process.

1.5. Let’s get small

Issue identified

Currently, Hearthstone is exclusive to iPad for touch based devices. However, the in-game UI is primarily decoration that is wasted space from a functional point of view. If anything my thousands of matches of Ascension on the iPhone have proven, it is that there is a way to pack a dense, card based experience onto a tiny screen.

Proposed solution

Hearthstone needs to be available on iPhone and Android powered phones and tablets. Not only will this increase revenue by increasing reach, it will also close the current opportunity for me-too products to start building an audience on those platforms where Hearthstone is currently unplayable.

2. Is Hearthstone pay-to-win?

Additionally, I want to analyze the effect becoming a high value player had on my Hearthstone performance. The most frequent accusation leveled at F2P games by core gamers and journalists is that they are pay-to-win, and therefore inferior to packaged goods. Due to its incredible quality and fun factor, the discussions I have read and listened to for Hearthstone have largely forgiven the monetization aspect of the game.

Without a doubt, Hearthstone is pay-to-win. Just like poker, there is plenty of luck involved and the outcome of a match can swiftly change with every card dealt. In any match, a completely free player can beat an equally skilled paying player. However, over the long run a paying player has a distinct advantage in deck building that increases the likelihood they will win.

Putting aside my first 5 training hours, my record as a free player was 7 wins and 20 losses for a 26% win ratio. As a paying player, I went 15 and 15 for a win ratio of 50%. In ranked play, as a free player I had a 33% win ratio and stalled out at rank 23 after a 6 game losing streak. As a paying player, I easily ascended to rank 20 with a 53% win ratio before hitting the 5 hour mark. Had I been willing to disenchant cards outside of my core class to craft an even stronger deck, or spend even more money on expert packs, I would have undoubtedly continued to rise in the ranks on the strength of my Priest deck.

Obviously from my record, I am neither the most skilled Hearthstone player nor is the game completely pay-to-win. Spending $100 did not guarantee easy victory. But it did give me a significant advantage relative to my performance as a free player. As with many F2P games, by paying for packs I was artificially boosting myself up the skill curve relative to more experienced and strategic players.

Most interesting for other F2P games with a multiplayer component is Hearthstone’s Arena mode. In the Arena, a player spends $1.99 or 150 gold to enter, draft a random deck and play until they lose 3 times. At the end of the mode, the player is rewarded based on the number of accumulated wins. A player is essentially paying to skip the pay-to-win portion of the game and face other players in contests that are equal parts luck and skill. This mode is fun and compelling and the $1.99 Arena admission purchase is currently the second most popular option behind the $9.99 purchase of 7 card packs. It is disappointing to spend $1.99 to draft a deck and quickly lose 3 battles, but even when this happened to me I was rewarded with at least 1 expert pack, a $1.50 value relative to the cheapest pack option.

[This follow section is an update written on 5/13 based on play since originally posting this article].

Since originally posting this article, I have continued to play Hearthstone, mostly in ranked play using my high value Priest deck. I have accumulated a lot of wins and currently sit at rank 14 with 3 stars. I have not spent any additional money on my deck, crafted new cards specifically for my deck or even opened any packs since completing my 20 hour evaluation.

Many commenters (here and on Reddit) have argued that Hearthstone is not pay-to-win, citing both outlier players like Trump (who achieved Legendary status with only free cards) and by arguing that high value spenders may have an advantage in the beginning but it will erode over time if you play enough to unlock all the cards and delve deep into the meta.

My definition of pay-to-win for the purposes of this article is that spending money does not give you an instant win button (as it does in some free-to-play games), but instead gives you a significant advantage over free players who have invested similar amounts of time and energy into the game as you have.

Let us assume it takes something like 100 hours of play over several weeks to earn a collection on par with mine as a player who spent $100 (several weeks because a new quest – the clearest way to earn gold if you are having trouble winning in Play or Arena modes – is only served once per day). For that first 100 hours, a spending player has a massive advantage over a free player. Although there is undoubtedly a large part of the community who invests this time and energy into Hearthstone, I believe the median player of Hearthstone does not. Therefore, for the average player of the game and not the deeply commited, the game has a strong pay-to-win component.

In no way does this detract from the quality or fun factor of Hearthstone. As a designer who embraces in-game monetization, I view the level of criticism of my statement as a validation of how expertly Blizzard has built a working free-to-play game. Hearthstone is an incredible game and as I noted above, I believe it will be an evergreen success for Blizzard, staying on the top grossing chart for years to come.（source：gamasutra）