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分析2013年主流F2P游戏的IAP经济趋势

发布时间:2014-01-07 14:58:52 Tags:,,,

作者:Jon Jordan

我在2013年花了不少时间分析F2P手机游戏。我部分研究结果就是所谓的折扣货币率(以下简称DRc),用来衡量在不同IAP交易中,一个游戏内货币单位在每一美元支出中的成本。

在多数情况下,折扣货币率会随着IAP价格增长,例如,你支出99.99美元时,你每一美元支出所获得的游戏内货币单位自然比你支出0.99美元时的收获更多。

如果玩家购买49.99美元的选项可以获得比4.99美元的交易更多的游戏内货币,那么就可以鼓励玩家多花钱。

因此,这里的研究所采用的折扣货币率不同于游戏最大IAP交易(通常为99.99美元)vs最小交易(通常为0.99美元,1.99美元或4.99美元)中每一美元所获得的游戏内货币这一概念。

我们可以用《Clash of Clans》为例进行计算。

clash-of-clans-DCr-calculation(from pocketgamer)

clash-of-clans-DCr-calculation(from pocketgamer)

这是一个典型的5项IAP经济,你在最小交易中每投入1美元可获得100个宝石,在最大交易中每投入1美元却可得140个宝石。

因此,我们将《Clash of Clans》的DRc定义为1.4。

主流趋势

第一个图表是我所分析的50款游戏的数据转储,它所显示的DRc通常介于1至2之间,常见情况是1.5-1.7。

discounted-currency-ratios(from pocketgamer)

discounted-currency-ratios(from pocketgamer)

这里我没有注明游戏名称(因为这并不重要),但需要指出的是,该图表从左至右是按游戏在2012至2013年初的发布时间来排序的,最新的游戏位于图表右侧。

(注:这里的“日期”是指游戏分析时间,而不是发布时间,但它们实际上是相同的概念)

如图所示,多数游戏都有单一的硬货币(要求你用真钱购买的货币),所以我们在此用蓝色的点来表示。

有些游戏拥有两种硬货币,我们就用绿色的点来表示这种“较软”硬货币的DCr。

在这个基础上,我们可以看到2013年期间DCr的波动有递减的趋势。

从趋势来看,图表右侧三分之一的地方没有一款游戏的DCr超过2。所有最高的数据(超过3)都位于图表左侧。

这说明行为中有个发展的一致性,可行与不可行的游戏元素得到了一致认同。

(当然,我们需要指出由于样本数量不够庞大,这并不能代表2013年所发布的F2P手机游戏的整体情况。但这也并非随机选取的样本,因为我所分析的游戏都是来自知名开发者和发行商的成功之作)

随着时间的发展,拥有两种硬货币的游戏越来越少。

双重麻烦

在这种情况下,我们很有必要考虑这些拥有两种硬货币的游戏。

其中有些游戏的两种货币拥有相同的DCr(蓝绿点),而有些游戏的的两种货币却拥有不同的DCr,这再次表明行业对于同款游戏中同时推出两种硬货币是否可行做法这一点上的共识。

discounted-currency-2-hard-currency-games(from pocketgamer)

discounted-currency-2-hard-currency-games(from pocketgamer)

值得注意的是,有些游戏的硬货币折扣率更高(例如,蓝点高于绿点),而有些采用两种硬货币的游戏折扣率却相对更低(这在我看来更合逻辑)。

通常情况下,我个人认为采用两种硬货币的做法会令用户极为困惑,否决了任何可能通过让用户增加其IAP消费频率而收获的益处。

这正是采用两种硬货币的游戏越来越少的原因。事实上,最近唯一使用这种系统的成功游戏是《CSR Classics》,并且这也只是因为该系统曾被发布于2012年的《CSR Racing》所用。

对比

最后两个图表显示了将折扣率作为比较衡量手段的方法。

手机战略游戏(我将这些游戏描述为“Clash of Clones”,因为它们与《Clans of Clans》颇为相似)的图表显示,在一个拥有杰出领袖的游戏题材中,所有游戏都会追随那些已经约定俗成的标准。

正如下图显示,这些游戏都有一个DCr介于1.4-1.8的硬货币。

discounted-currency-strategy-games(from pocketgamer)

discounted-currency-strategy-games(from pocketgamer)

另一图表对比了该领域某些大型公司所采用的运营策略。当然,这里的样本数量还不足以定论,但其趋势却已经一目了然。

EA Mobile游戏似乎没有固定的DCr模式,每款游戏所采用的方法各有不同,Gameloft和Kabam亦是如此,但采用了更为统一的DCr。

discounted-currency-companies-2013(from pocketgamer)

discounted-currency-companies-2013(from pocketgamer)

正如我们所料,GREE和DeNA这两大日本平台公司采用了非常严格的方法,尤其是Mobage,除了《Heroes & Havoc》这款游戏之外,它根本没有任何货币折扣(DCr=1)。

有趣的是,华纳兄弟有两款游戏均含有两种硬货币,并且具有较高的DCr。行业领头羊Supercell只有两款游戏,尽管同时运营采用一种硬货币和两种硬货币的游戏,这两者的DCr却是相似的。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Monetizer Special: IAP economic trends during 2013

Consolidation around de facto standards

by Jon Jordan

During 2013 I’ve spent a lot of time playing and attempting to analyse F2P mobile games.

Part of what I’ve learned has been announced weekly in our Monetizer columns, which usually focus on the in-game economy of one game.

Other conclusions only become apparent over a longer period, however, and that’s been the case with one part of our Monetizer process.

How it works

Called the Discounted Currency ratio, this is a measure of how much a unit of in-game currency costs per dollar spent at the different IAP transations available.

In almost all cases, the Discounted Currency ratio increases with IAP price i.e. you get more units of in-game currency per dollar spent if you spend $99.99 than if you spend $0.99.

This is an inherent encouragement for players to spend as much money as possible as they will get more in-game currency if they make one $49.99 purchases compared to 10 $4.99 purchases.

For that reason, the Discounted Currency ratio as used in this research is the difference between the in-game currency gained per dollar spent at a game’s maximum IAP transaction (typically $99.99) compared to that at the minimum transaction (typically $0.99, $1.99 or $4.99).

We can see how the simple calculation works in the case of Clash of Clans.

A classic 5-band IAP economy, you get 100 gems per $1 spent at the minimum transaction but 140 gems per $1 spent at the maximum.

In this way, we define Clash of Clan’s DRc as being 1.4.

The main trends

The first graph is a data dump of the 50-or so games I’ve analysed, which shows the DRc is typically between 1 to 2, usually around 1.5-1.7.

I’ve not included the games’ titles (it’s irreverent at this point), but need to point out that the graph is ordered in terms of a rough chronology with games released in 2012 or early 2013 on the far left hand side, with the newest games towards the right hand side of the graph.

(The ‘date’ in this case is when the games were analysed not when they were released, but it’s roughly the same thing.)

As can be seen, most games have a single hard currency (a currency you buy with real cash), and hence are represented by a single blue dot.

Some games have two hard currencies, though. In that case, the DCr of the ‘softer’ of the two hard currencies is shown in green.

On this basis, we can see that a fairly strong trend has been for the volatility of DCr to decrease during 2013.

In terms of trends, there are no games with Discounted Currency ratios of more than 2 in the right hand third of the graph. All the high numbers – certainly anything over 3 – is towards the left hand side of the graph.

This suggests a growing consensus within the industry as it looks at what works and what doesn’t.

(Of course, we need to point out that this is not a large or representative sample of the F2P mobile games released in 2013. It isn’t random, however, as the games analysed are the high profile titles from the most high profile developers and publishers.)

A more subtle note is that over time, fewer games have two hard currencies.

Double trouble

In this context, it’s interesting to consider those games that do have two hard currencies.

As can be clearly seen, some of them have the same DCr for both currencies (a green/blue dot), while others have very different ratios; something that highlights the fact there was little industry consensus on whether operating two hard currencies in a game is a sensible decision.

Indeed, it’s interesting to see the confusion is such that some games more heavily discount the harder of the hard currencies (i.e. the blue dot is higher than the green dot), while other more heavily discount the softer of the two (the latter being the more logical in my opinion).

More generally, I personally think it’s overly confusing (or off putting) for consumers to take this two hard currency approach, negating any monetisation benefit that can be gained from getting consumers to increase their in-app purchases frequency.

That is why having two hard currencies is becoming less common. In fact, the only successful game to use the system recently is CSR Classics, and that was only because that was system used in CSR Racing, which was released in 2012.

Compare and contrast

The final two graphs demonstrate how the Discounted Currency ratio can be used as a comparative measure.

The graph of mobile strategy games – games that I describe as the ‘Clash of the Clones’ for their similarities with Supercell’s Clash of Clans – shows that within a genre with a dominant leader, all games will follow what has become a de facto standard.

This is something also discussed in relation to currency unit conversions here.

As can clearly be seen below, all these game have a single hard currency with a DCr of between 1.4 and 1.8.

The other graph compares the operational tactics of some of the larger companies in the space. Of course, the sample isn’t large enough to be conclusive, but certain trends are obvious.

With no seeming pattern to its games’ DCrs, EA Mobile seems to take a game-by-game approach, as do Gameloft and Kabam, albeit much more bounded with respect to DCr.

As we’d expect, the two Japanese platform companies GREE and DeNA (Mobage) have a very strict approach; particularly Mobage which is a company that doesn’t discount currency purchases at all (DCr = 1), apart from in one game (Heroes & Havoc).

Interestingly, Warner Bros. has two games which both have two hard currencies; and also which operate at a high DCr. Industry leader Supercell only has two games, but despite running both one and two hard currency titles, they both have a similar DCr.(source:pocketgamer


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