作者：James Vaughan

今天我们将在此审视圣诞假期的付费热潮。圣诞期间，在与家人团聚，举杯共饮并享受着肉馅饼的时候，我的眼睛却时不时地盯着手机排行榜看。我惊喜地发现了排行榜在一年中如此热闹的时间里所发生的变化，我也想要讨论自己的观察报告，并希望别人能够分享自己的看法。

Christmas paid spike（from gamasutra）

观察报告：圣诞假期的付费热潮

2013年12月25日，前100名畅销排行榜单上的付费应用数量上升了250%。

比起一年中的任何时间，这是畅销榜单上出现过最多付费应用的时候——28款有关圣诞节的应用以及8款出现在2013年其它时间的应用，这些应用的排名都比往常高了许多。（一直稳居畅销榜单的《我的世界》更是享受了其一年中最畅销的一天——即自从上次圣诞热潮以来。）

2012年我们曾遇到过一次类似的情况，即许多付费应用出现在前100名畅销榜单上的数量增加了70.8%，即41款圣诞应用以及24款2012年其它时间出现的应用。

引起圣诞假期的付费热潮的潜在原因

经过思考后，我得出了6个潜在原因：

付费应用被当成是“奢侈品”

人们会在圣诞期间收到钱/礼物卡，所以比往常更有钱。他们便会决定购买一些通常不会买的奢侈付费应用去犒劳自己。

苹果编辑团队的关注

在苹果2013年最佳应用/推荐中出现了许多付费应用。人们想要安装苹果推荐的应用——实际上购买应用与他们的决定没有直接关系。

新消费者带有现有的付费偏见

那些在圣诞期间获得新设备的人可能并不熟悉苹果的生态系统，并因为更熟悉传统付费模式而默认地接受付费应用。同样地——在最初的圣诞热潮后他们可能不会下载更多应用。

在圣诞期间发行的新付费应用

圣诞前夕发行的许多大型应用意味着在“发行日”会出现销售高峰。例如《侠盗猎车手：圣安地列斯》，《行尸走肉第二季》，《割绳子2》。然而潜在的平衡力还是一些大型免费应用的发行，如《Angry Birds Go》。

付费应用圣诞假期大促销

调低价格的圣诞应用将引起销售热潮。如《无尽之剑3》，《使命召唤：突击队》，《NBA 2K14》。然而签证的平衡在于大型付费游戏限免，如《Angry Birds Star Wars 2》。

前圣诞付费应用的更新

在圣诞前夕进行大规模更新（游戏邦注：通常是基于主题）将提高用户对于该应用的注意力，并提供给他们更多的购买选择，如《星球大战：旧共和国武士》，《无尽之剑3》。然而，潜在的平衡在于免费游戏的更新，如《辛普森一家：枯竭》，《Clash of Clans》。

还有一大额外的潜在原因：

“付费应用将在被下载的那天挣得全部费用。而免费应用则是分散开来。”

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Christmas Time: The Paid App Strikes Back

by james vaughan

We are gathered here today to examine the Christmas Paid Spike.
During Christmas, in between family time, drinking and copious consumption of mince pies – I found myself keeping a mildly guilty eye on the mobile charts. It’s fascinating to see how the charts react at such a turbulent time of year and I want to discuss one observation in the hope that other people may be able to provide additional insight.

Observation: The Christmas Paid Spike:

On 25th December 2013, the number of Paid apps in the top 100 Grossing chart leapt up by 250%.

There were significantly more Paid apps in the Grossing chart than at any other time in the year – 28 over Christmas vs 8 for the rest of 2013 and these apps were higher up in the charts than normal. (Perennial top grossing game Minecraft had its highest grossing day in a year (since the last xmas spike)

In 2012, we saw a similar (but lesser) event where the number of Paid apps in the top 100 Grossing increased by 70.8% to 41 over Christmas vs 24 for the rest of 2012. (Side note – interesting figures re the decline of Paid apps in the top Grossing generally…)

Potential Causes of the Paid Christmas spike

After a bit of thinking – I came up with 6 potential causes:

Paid apps are viewed as a ‘luxury good’

People receive money / gift cards at Christmas and so feel richer than normal. They decide to treat themselves with luxury premium apps that they would normally not get

Apple Editorial team focus

There is a heavy paid app skew in Apple Best of 2013 awards / featuring. People want to install the Apple recommended apps – the fact that the apps are paid is irrelevant to their decision making.

New consumers with existing paid bias

People getting devices over Christmas may be new to the Apple ecosystem and may default to paid apps as they are more familiar with traditional purchase models. Also – they may not download many apps in the future after the initial xmas surge.

New Paid app Christmas releases

Lots of large releases just before Christmas means there are lots of ‘launch day’ sale spikes. e.g. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Walking Dead Season 2, Cut the Rope 2. However, potential counterbalance would be big Free app releases e.g. Angry Birds Go

Paid App Christmas sales

Lower than normal prices for paid apps may cause sales spikes. e.g. Infinity Blade III, Call of Duty: Strike Team, NBA 2K14. However, potential counterbalance would be big premium games going free e.g. Angry Birds Star Wars 2.

Pre Christmas Paid app updates

Big new updates (often themed) before Christmas increase attractiveness of apps and offer more purchase options. e.g. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic, Infinity Blade III. However, potential counterbalance would be Free game updates e.g. The Simpsons: Tapped Out, Clash of Clans

Bonus potential cause identified here by @MattRix and it feels like a significant one:

“Paid apps earn all their money on the day they’re downloaded. F2P spread it out”

It will probably prove to be a mix of all of the above – however, I find the concept of paid apps as a luxury good particularly interesting. Shout in the comments if you think there are other explanations or you can find me on twitter here

James (developer of Plague Inc.)(source:gamasutra)