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GamesBeat 2013:游戏行业正处于全盛时期

发布时间:2013-11-14 11:18:29 Tags:,,,,

作者:Dean Takahashi

这周的GamesBeat 2013大会之后,我请了一天假,因为听到那么多好消息让我兴奋过头了。本次活动汇聚了100位发言人、超过540名与会者、大量媒体和50多名游戏公司的首席执行官。百万观众在Twitch网站上收看了大会的直播节目,并留下36.5万条不同的评论。感谢促成本次大会成功的所有人。

演讲内容太多以致于我已经有些记不清了,我打算重看一遍。我仍然在消化所听到的各种内容,但我想先在本文中表达一下我的第一印象。简要概括便是:游戏行业正处于全盛时期。

风投公司Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers的合伙人Bing Gordon像Yoda大师(游戏邦注:Yoda是《星球大战》中的重要人物,这位德高望重的绝地大师培养了一代又一代的绝地战士。)一样滔滔不绝,所以我不敢说自己完全领会了他的精神。但EA的前首席执行官John Riccitiello的发言却相当有条理。他表示,游戏行业绝不是停滞不前或入不敷出,不再是那些做游戏换微薄收入的人的生计。相反地,游戏行业的各个领域都在全面开花。

他认为:“游戏行业正处于前所未有的繁荣时代。”

我打算把焦点放在Riccitiello和我的“炉边谈话”上,因为他的言论给我们指明了方向。他列举了统计数据。游戏软件一年的收益大约是250亿美元;PC免费游戏是65亿美元;休闲、社交和网页游戏的大约是60亿美元;智能手机和平板游戏的大约是130亿美元;硬件生产的收益甚至更高。Riccitiello引用了Magid协会、Super Data研究机构、美国娱乐软件协会和许多公司的数据。他似乎鸟瞰了游戏行业各方面的动态。

“所有领域都在发展。PC免费游戏和手机游戏发展最快。它们都在使用免费-微交易模式,这是发展最迅速的商业模式。世界各地的游戏市场全面振兴,拉丁美洲、欧洲、亚洲和北美洲都发展飞速。根据Magid协会的调查,这是第一次世界上过半的全年龄人群成为了游戏玩家。真是令人震惊的发展。”

抱有这么乐观态度的人不只是Riccitiello。美国娱乐软件协会的会长Mike Gallagher也认为,游戏行业正处于“极好的时期”。正如我们从美国总统的游戏顾问Mark DeLoura听说的,游戏已经入侵白宫了。

他表示,数字游戏商业太诱人了。在去年北美数字内容的收益中,数字游戏商业占到了52%。EA一度经历坎坷,这周的收益报告也比预料中的来得好。当我提到这份报告在他的意料之外,Riccitiello点头表示认同—-EA在今年初的财政不乐观,导致他的离开。他同意,甚至在这个过渡时期游戏机行业仍然保持强劲,即使《侠盗猎车手5》的2900万销量将成为游戏发布史上的最后一次辉煌。

Grand Theft Auto V(from pastemagazine)

Grand Theft Auto V(from pastemagazine)

“没有什么事件比《侠盗猎车手5》的发布更有影响力了—-《星球大战》和《哈利·波特》的发布都不及它,它的冲击力估计高出美国橄榄球超级大赛两倍。”

这样的繁荣意味着什么?

这样的繁荣让你看到了游戏业的前景。不是血腥的混战或决斗。所有人都有竞争的空间。只有那些置身事外、隔山观虎斗的人才是失败者。

这样的繁荣意味着甚至低技术含量的游戏公司如实体零售商GameStop也可以靠双重策略共享繁荣成果,即同时投身于零售和数字游戏。像GameStop这样的公司可以进军新领域如手机游戏,但它们不必放弃自己已有的业务。这片新领域促进了包括电子运动、手机短信(特别是在亚洲)和甚至Facebook在内的游戏边缘行业的发展。

许多发言人都就游戏机或其他平台是否会占据统治地位发表了看法。Oculus VR公司的首席执行Brendan Iribe相信,虚拟现实技术可以为玩家提供比目前的游戏机能提供的更新颖的体验。他的公司现在专注于PC配件,但他们也开始开发手机版VR眼镜。Ouya的首席执行官Julie Uhrman表示,她希望玩家能玩到更多独立游戏,而不是局限于三大巨头的产品。

但他们不必担心,因为世界各地的人都开始消费游戏了。非玩家是正在迅速灭绝的物种。Riccitiello表示,除了付费MMO,其他游戏都是赢家。

“如果你是做游戏的,那么你的前途便一片光明。”

根据预定情况,Riccitiello认为PlayStation 4和Xbox One前5个月的销量会超过它们的先代游戏机的前14个月的销量。2014年游戏机游戏的销量有望上涨20%到30%。而与此同时,免费游戏平台也会持续发展。游戏机游戏和手机游戏,哪个表现更好呢?

“现在,两个领域都处于繁盛时期。”

当然,每个人都想分享一下自己的收获。Machine Zone的首席执行官Gabe Leydon筹集资金组建了一支80人的开发团队,历时19个月完成了一款手机游戏,面向全球发行。现在,他的大冒险已经得到奖励了。

为此,游戏制作商必须改变他们对市场的看法。Flurry的首席执行官Simon Khalaf表示:“要有全球视野。考虑赢利策略。从第一天起就要想好营销策略。不要太指望应用商店的推荐。”

正如Nexon的首席财管官Owen Mahoney在他的演讲中总结的,换一种方法。“不要做垃圾产品。”

品牌最终战胜平台

在理想的情况下,平台不成就游戏,也不破坏游戏。当作为游戏开发者的你最终制作了一款成功的游戏时,你便牢牢把握住了自己的命运。

Riccitiello认为相当大的力量仍然掌握在平台所有者如苹果、谷歌和游戏机制造商手中。为了对抗它们,游戏开发者应该打造自己的游戏品牌。如果他们有了自己的品牌,就不会像今天这样受到平台所有者的挤压。例如,迪士尼、Netflix或Pandora就不怕被挤兑。

手机游戏的弱点就在于品牌不能持续吸引关注。当然,像“愤怒的小鸟”这样的品牌虽然响当当,但还没有证明它是否能流行十年,这与许多游戏机游戏品牌是无法相比的。一旦那些手机游戏开发者培养出强大的品牌,他们就能获得行业的控制权、把命运揣在自己手中,而不是任凭平台所有者处置。

“品牌改变杠杆的支点。如果我们想看到由自己驱动手机游戏的价值,那么我们就要专注于做好游戏。”

已经离开EA了,那么Riccitiello现在做什么呢?离开EA后他观察了130家公司。他发现它们当中许多是山寨公司。他还发现有些游戏人才把自己学到的东西运用到其他行业中。Riccitiello举例道,比如《模拟人生》的制作者Will Wright就成立了一家新工作室Syntertainment,专注于社交网络而不是游戏。

换句话说,一旦游戏开发者把所有人都变成玩家,他们就会转移到其他行业,然后占领那个行业的受众。这就是最乐观的结论了。我们不想面面大肆宣传这一点并把游戏行业变成另一个破坏性的投机泡沫。几年以前崛起的Zynga已经摔下它的宝座,让我们知道所谓泡沫是怎么回事。但这种行业转移仍然是鼓舞人心的。尽管这次大会让我累得精疲力尽,但我对游戏行业的前景却更加乐观了。

本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

The DeanBeat: GamesBeat event reveals the game industry’s boom in all of its dimensions

by Dean Takahashi

I took a day off after our GamesBeat 2013 conference this week, since I was exhausted from hearing so much good news. I corralled all 100 of the speakers for the event, which drew more 540 attendees, a bunch of press, and more than 50 chief executives of game companies. We had 365,000 unique viewers with a million total views on the event livestream on Twitch, where our videos are archived. Thank you all who made it a success.

The talks went by in a blur, and I plan on re-watching many of them. I’m still absorbing everything that was said, but I thought I would give some initial impressions today. The short summary: games are in good shape.

The Zen-like Bing Gordon, partner at venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, spoke a little too much like Yoda for me, so I’m not sure if I’ll ever fully absorb what he said. But John Riccitiello, former CEO of Electronic Arts, made it very clear. The game industry is doing a lot more than just treading water or paying its bills, providing livelihoods for people who would make games for peanuts. Rather, gaming is in the midst of a boom on all fronts.

“What we’ve got is a boom unlike any we’ve ever seen,” he said.

I’m going to zero in on Riccitiello’s fireside chat with me because he gave us perspective. He ticked off the stats. The console software business is about $25 billion a year. The PC free-to-play business is $6.5 billion. Casual, social, and web games are about $6 billion. Smartphone and tablet games are about $13 billion. Hardware generates even more revenue. Riccitiello pulled the data from Magid Associates, Super Data Research, the Entertainment Software Association, and a number of game companies. And he made it seem like he was looking at the game industry’s dynamics from a bird’s-eye view.

“All of them are growing,” he said. “The PC free-to-play and mobile are fastest growing. They are both using a free-to-play micro-transaction model, and that’s the fastest-growing business model in the world. Games are growing in every major geography. Latin America, Europe, Asia, and North America are all growing rapidly. According to Magid, this is the first time when more than half the people in any given age group are gamers. That is stunning, never ever been true before.”

Riccitiello wasn’t alone in his optimism. Mike Gallagher, president of the Entertainment Software Association, shared the view that it was a “fantastic time” to be in the industry. As we heard from President Obama’s game advisor, Mark DeLoura, games have even invaded the White House.

Digital game businesses are killing it, he said. Digital revenue streams, or half the business, were up 52 percent in North America in the past year. Electronic Arts, which has had bumpy times, reported better-than-expected earnings this week. Riccitiello nodded when I mentioned that it seemed like a validation of his own strategy, which earlier in the year wasn’t looking as good and led to his departure from EA. He noted that the consoles are still strong even in a transition year and that Grand Theft Auto V’s sales of 29 million copies will go down as the largest entertainment launch in history.

“Nothing has had more impact than that — not the Star Wars launch or the Harry Potter launch — it’s twice the size of the Super Bowl,” he said.

What does the boom mean?

That gives you perspective. It’s not an entirely bloody free-for-all, or Battle Royal, as we called the theme of our conference. There’s room for a variety of strategies. The losers are really just the people who decide to sit this round out and watch the battle from outside the ring.

It means that even smokestack game companies, like physical retailer GameStop, can thrive with a kind of dual strategy with their investments in both retail and digital games. Companies like GameStop can move into new sectors like mobile, but they don’t have to abandon their existing businesses. The sectors pushing the edges of games include e-sports, mobile messaging networks (especially in Asia), and even Facebook.

Many of the speakers gave their opinions on whether consoles or other platforms would rule. Brendan Iribe, CEO of Oculus VR, believes he can peel off a lot of players who want something more innovative than what the consoles currently offer. He is focused on a PC accessory for now, but he has also begun work on a mobile version of his virtual reality goggles. And Julie Uhrman, CEO of Ouya, said that she wants gamers to enjoy broader choices of indie selections, rather than just the blockbusters of the Big Three.

But they don’t have to worry, because in many parts of the world, people are just beginning to consume games. Non-gamers are a rapidly dying breed. Riccitiello said that everybody was going to win, other than subscription massively multiplayer online games.

“You’re in a good spot if you’re making games,” Riccitiello said.

And based on preorders, Riccitiello thinks that the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One will both sell more volume in their first five months than they sold in the previous generation in the first 14 months. You can then expect 20 percent to 30 percent console game sales growth in 2014. That will happen at the same time that free-to-play game platforms grow. Is console or mobile better?

“Right now, it’s a great time to be in either,” Riccitiello said.

Of course, everybody will try to score their share of the riches. Gabe Leydon, CEO of Machine Zone, raised money, put a team of 80 people to work for 19 months, and built a single mobile game geared for a global audience. So far, that huge bet is paying off.

To do that, game makers have to change the way they think about the market, said Simon Khalaf, CEO of Flurry, in his fireside chat. “Think globally. Think monetization. Think of your marketing strategy from day one. Do not rely on Apple to feature your game.”

Put another way, as Nexon chief financial officer Owen Mahoney said in his talk, “Don’t make junk.”

Brands over platforms, eventually
In the ideal world, a platform won’t make or break a game. You, as a game developer, will eventually hold your own fate in your own hands when it comes to making a hit game.

Riccitiello believes that considerable power still lies in the hands of platform makers, like Apple, Google, and the console makers. To counter that, the game makers should create game brands that are powerful in their own right. If they do so, then they won’t get pushed around by the platform owners in the same way that they do today. Brand owners like Disney, Netflix, or Pandora don’t get pushed around, Riccitiello said.

The mobile market is weaker now because brands aren’t dominating the attention. For sure, brands like Angry Birds are being created. But they aren’t yet proving that they can last for a decade, like many console game brands do. Once those mobile game makers create powerful brands, then they will seize control of the industry and determine their own fates, instead of platform makers deciding for them.

“Brands change the leverage point dramatically,” he said. “If we are going to see value driven on the mobile side, and we will,” then those companies should concentrate on making games.

Now that he has left EA, what’s Riccitiello investing in? He has looked at 130 companies since he left EA. He’s concerned that many of them are being copycats. He thinks of them as lemmings. He found that some of the game talent is taking what they have learned and are applying it to other sectors. That includes Will Wright, another of our moderators and the creator of The Sims. Wright’s new startup, Syntertainment, may be more like a social network than a game company, Riccitiello said.

In other words, once the game makers turn everyone into a gamer, they ‘re going to move into other industries and conquer those too. You can’t get to a more ebullient conclusion than that. We don’t want to over-hype this and turn it into the next destructive, speculative bubble. We heard this a few years ago with the rise of companies like Zynga, which has fallen off its pedestal. But it’s encouraging. Despite my exhaustion from the event, I’m more inspired about games than ever.(source:venturebeat)


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