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分析《无尽之剑III》的成功系数及盈利性

发布时间:2013-09-26 15:21:18 Tags:,,,,

作者:Jon Jordan

我们过去在这个盈利分析系列文章中所提到的多数游戏属于免费游戏,但本次所分析的文章《无尽之剑》情况则非如此,该游戏售价6.99美元。

但是,由于它使用了基于IAP的标准资源系统,所以我们仍然可以使用相同工具来分析这款游戏。

从我们的“成功”排行榜来看,《无尽之剑》定价,加之其高端路线的特点——-意味着它晋升到热门收益榜单前列的速度超过其他任何免费游戏。

我们可以将这款游戏视为含有即时每玩家平均收益(即6.99美元的售价)的免费增值游戏。

该游戏在iPhone平台得分为(111/119)/4=0.23,而在iPad上的得分则是0.1。

这两者的得分都远超过我们针对F2P游戏所设定的成功基准(0.01)。

ipad-chair-infinity-blade-3-prize-wheel(from pocketgamer)

ipad-chair-infinity-blade-3-prize-wheel(from pocketgamer)

(《无尽之剑III》的一个盈利技巧是允许玩家购买随机道具掉落的中奖机会)

当然,我们可以预见到随着时间发展,《无尽之剑III》终将因为多数玩家不再购买任何IAP而跌下收益榜单,所以目前的这些数据已是其高峰状态的表现。

相反,我们通常认为F2P游戏可能会经历2个月时间冲上“成功”排行榜顶峰。

双重货币

提到《无尽之剑III》的经济系统,这就是一个复杂的问题了。

首先,该游戏含有两种硬货币:黄金,这可以用来购买宝剑、盔甲、盾牌、指环、宝石等道具,另一种是筹码,可以用来升级道具或者精通掌握道具。

chair-infinity-blade-3-medium-key(from pocketgamer)

chair-infinity-blade-3-medium-key(from pocketgamer)

(尽管你手持大刀,也还是需要一把钥匙才能开启这个箱子)

与这些道具一样,游戏还推出了多种辅助道具,例如药水、钥匙、配料(用于制作药水)、地图和随机掉落道具(所谓的奖品转轮)。

这些都是单次使用的易消耗品牌,需要用筹码来购买。

计算其货币折扣率,黄金是2.4(相对较高),筹码则是1.4(一般)。

此外,最小黄金IAP售价为0.99美元,筹码最小售价为4.99美元,由此可看出筹码才是游戏的关键货币。你可以通过赢得每场战役而赢得黄金,但只有实现了一些成就才可以获得筹码奖励。

难度太大?

将这款游戏列出我们收益排行榜的一个大问题在于,我们要考虑如何处理《无尽之剑III》6.99美元的售价,以及两种硬货币。

如果我们要采用纯vanilla算法(采取最小IAP的0.99美元售价),我们就只能得到20这个相对较低的得分。

如果我们忽略6.99美元售价,将4.99美元的最小筹码售价视为最小IAP,那么我们就会得到100这个数据,这正是我们对盈利性极高的游戏的判断基准。

但如果我们将7.98美元(6.99美元+0.99美元)视为最小IAP,那么它的得分就是160,而如果将11.98美元(6.99美元+4.99美元)视为最小IAP,那么这一数字就是240,这已经相当之高了。

我认为《无尽之剑III》的得分应该介于100至160,这也已经算是收益极高的游戏了。

我们采用的也许并非理想的计算方法,但要知道它是含有IAP内容的付费游戏,并且采用多个硬货币,这些为我们的计算过程添加了更复杂的因素。

结论:《无尽之剑III》

成功系数(iPhone)=0.23

成功系数(iPad)=0.10

盈利系数=100-160

货币折扣率=1.4(黄金),2.4(筹码)(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Monetizer: Infinity Blade III

by Jon Jordan

Following on from my speech at the Develop in Brighton 2013 conference, we’re now running a weekly column called Monetizer.

You can see previous columns here, and we’re posting screens showing the different techniques we come across on our Tumblr page.

You can also read my handy explanation of what it’s all about and how we calculate the numbers here.

Wielding a big sword

Typically the majority of games we cover in Monetizer are pure free-to-play games i.e. they are free to download. That isn’t the case with Infinity Blade, which costs $6.99.

However, because it uses a standard resource system based on in-app purchases, with some adjustments we can still use the same tools to analyse the game.

When it comes to our Success ranking, Infinity Blade’s pricing – combined with its high profile nature – means it’s risen up the top grossing charts much faster than any free-to-play game would.

After all, we can consider a paid game to be a free-to-play game with an immediate average revenue per player – in this case $6.99 (its cost).

On iPhone, Infinity Blade III scores ((111/119)/4) = 0.23, while on iPad, the score is 0.10.

Both are much higher than the 0.01 we take as a benchmark for commercial success for a F2P game.

One of Infinity Blade III’s monetisation techniques sees you buying prize wheels for random item drops

Of course, over time, we expect Infinity Blade III will drift down the top grossing charts as the majority of its players won’t buy any IAPs so these initial numbers describe its peak.

In contrast, we typically assume that F2P games will take anything up to two months to hit their peak Success ranking

Dual wielding

When it comes to how Infinity Blade III’s economy works, it’s a sophisticated beast.

First up, there are two hard currencies: gold, which is used to buy items such as swords, armour, shields, rings, gems etc; and chips, which are used to level up – or master – these items.

Despite your large sword, you need a key to access this chest

As well as these items, the game features various support items (labelled supplies) such as potions, keys, ingredients (for making potions), maps and random item drops (called prize wheels).

All these are single use consumables that require payment in chips.

Calculating the Currency Discount ratio, gold has a ratio 2.4 (relatively high), while chips have a ratio of 1.4 (average).

Combined with the minimum gold IAP being $0.99 compared to $4.99 for chips, we can see that chips are the game’s key currency. This is underlined as you earn gold for each battle won, while chip rewards are limited to completing achievements.

Too hard?

When it comes to our main Monetizer ranking, the big issue with Infinity Blade III is to consider is how we deal with the game’s $6.99 price, and the two hard currencies.

If we make a purely vanilla calculation (taking a minimum IAP of $0.99), we get a figure of 20 – a low ranking.

If we ignore the $6.99 price and consider the minimum IAP to be the chip minimum of $4.99, we get a figure of 100, which is our benchmark above which we consider a game highly monetized.

However, if we take the minimum IAP to be $7.98 ($6.99 + $0.99) , the ranking is 160, or 240 if we take the minimum to be $11.98 ($6.99 + $4.99) – which is very high.

My gut feeling is a somewhat fudged ranking of 100 to 160 is probably the best place to put Infinity Blade III, which would make it a highly monetized game.

It’s not an ideal calculation, certainly, but if nothing else, the game throws up some interesting future considerations for our process, both in terms of dealing with paid games that contain IAPs, and perhaps more importantly, multiple hard currencies; something we’re beginning to see a lot more of.

Conclusion: Infinity Blade III

Success coefficient (iPhone) = 0.23

Success coefficient (iPad) = 0.10

Monetizer coefficient = 100 – 160

Currency Discount ratio = 1.4 (gold), 2.4 (chips)(source:pocketgamer


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