微软智能手机将在本周正式发售，是时候考虑微软这一绝地反击战的长期胜算有多大了。在这一方面，微软还是有不少优势，它对技术硬件茍严的要求可以证明这一手机平台会很耐用，而HTC、三星、LG和戴尔等原始设备制造商提供的9款美国、6款欧洲发售机型，也足以说明微软具有强大的硬件后盾。

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另外，微软智能手机的开发商工具目前下载量已达50万，基于C#的大型电玩软件开发工具包的下载量也非常可观。

微软在应用市场上也正全力以赴，确保在智能手机发售期间推出60款以上的手机游戏，并承诺将砸下5亿美元广告费，为Windows Phone 7平台打造声势。

公平地说，微软WP7的操作系统确实很人性化，虽然用户界面有那么点花哨，很容易过时，但使用起来还算顺手。

总体来看，WP7很可能成为iOS、Android、黑莓、Symbian和三星bada等智能手机操作系统的劲敌。

但更值得玩味的是，WP7平台究竟能否成功收买用户，如果能，它针对的用户又是哪些人？

尽管黑莓仍坐拥最庞大的企业用户群，但仍有不少理由可说服商务人士选择WP7手机，因为该平台绑定了微软办公软件，这一点确实是个不小的优势。普通用户购买WP7手机的原因则可能是，WP7智能手机性能不错，而他们也正巧准备将手上的功能性手机升级成智能手机。

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与Xbox Live功能绑定，是WP7平台的最大卖点，游戏用户应该是这一平台大获成功的关键因素。

当前的Xbox游戏玩家应该是这一平台的最大目标用户群，不但因为他们是微软产品的拥趸者，而且手机上的Xbox Live可以绑定他们的游戏虚拟形象、玩家积分等信息，所以如果他们选择了WP7手机就可以随时随地融入自己的游戏世界。

问题的关键在于，在2000万以上的Xbox Live玩家中，究竟有多少人会立即购买WP7手机仍然无法预测。

因为在这些玩家中，有不少人无疑已经是iPhone或Android手机的忠实粉丝，而且WP7新手机的价格也确实不便宜，另外，如果大量使用手机的永久在线服务，用户还要缴纳统一费用数据税。同时，即使是一些有意购买的Xbox玩家，也得等到原来的手机合同到期，才能更换新手机。

从WP7手机开始发售直到2010年底，这两种情况都会直接影响WP7用户数量的增长。

此外，WP7手机缺乏实时多人游戏模式功能，这一点也有可能削弱铁杆游戏粉丝对这一平台初涨的热情。

不过，随着时间的推移，当WP7与Xbox两个平台之间的共享功能越来越多的时候，WP7也许会从Xbox 360玩家中笼络不少用户，尤其是在微软掌机游戏最为走红的国家和地区。

但颇具讽刺意味的是，微软将如何协调WP7和Xbox这两个平台的用户流量？WP7是否会因Xbox Live功能而成为堪比Xbox 360的游戏平台？Xbox 360中的Xbox Live用户真的可以决定WP7手机的销量吗？

问题形成的原因在于，任何一个WP7用户都可以在手机上注册一个Xbox Live帐号，通过手机创建自己的游戏虚拟形象，参与游戏任务，以及其他已支持手机用户做的活动。

这样就会分化Xbox Live游戏社区，产生三种人群：一种是数量庞大的铁杆掌机游戏玩家，一种是更少量的、更倾向手机休闲游戏的玩家，还有一种就是难以从二者中取舍的中间派，他们在两个平台上都有注册帐号。

如此一来，微软就会陷入了一个自己折腾出来的双重麻烦。

微软将不得不怂恿两个极端派转向中间派，一边要游说Xbox用户购买WP7手机，另一边又要鼓动WP7用户参与Xbox掌机游戏，同时还要向那些坚守原来平台的“钉子户”提供两个平台的交叉服务，这样所有用户才会对自己的Xbox Live游戏体验满足，另外又不得不同时升级两个平台，使其形成无缝对接的微软掌机与手机游戏世界。

这是一项极其艰巨的工程，即使微软再砸下5亿美元，恐怕也难解决这一问题。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译）

Opinion: Will Windows Phone 7 fragment the Xbox Live community?

With Microsoft’s smartphone reboot finally due to go live this week, it’s time to consider the likely success of the long gestated strategy.

There are some good, if early, signs.

The technical hardware requirements enforced by Microsoft means there’s a coherence to the platform, and handset support is strong with nine devices in the US and six in Europe from OEMs such as HTC, Samsung, LG and Dell.

There have been 500,000 downloads of the developer tools, which as you’d expect are robust consisting of the same C# based SDK as used for Xbox Live Arcade games.

Microsoft is curating the Marketplace, ensuring it will be busy with over 60 games ready to roll out during the launch period. The company has also promised $500 million of advertising.

Equally important, the operating system feels intuitive. Even if the tile-based user interface is a little gimmicky and may date quickly, it’s pleasant to use.

In general, then, Windows Phone 7 seems to be a contender when it comes to the competitive world of iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Symbian and bada.

Longterm strategy

The more interesting question is whether the platform will appeal to consumers, and, if so, to whom?

Of course, there are clear reasons for business users to buy such phones, thanks to the tight MS Office integration, although BlackBerry still holds the high ground with many power and enterprise users. Other general users may just get such phones as they provide good value in terms of the general upgrade cycle from feature to smartphone.

Yet, with Xbox Live integration being the platform’s unique selling point, the gaming audience has to be considered key to Windows Phone 7 success.

Current Xbox gamers are the most obvious target as not only have they demonstrated a propensity for Microsoft products, they’ll also be able to plug directly into their existing gaming community on the move, thanks to the Xbox Live integration with respect to avatar, gamerscore, and the like.

Barriers to entry

Of course, the question of how many of the current 20+ million Xbox Live subscribers will immediately dash out to buy a Windows Phone 7 device is hard to gauge.

Some will no doubt already be happy iPhone or Android owners, while Windows Phone 7 launch devices aren’t cheap (especially SIM-free), and, thanks to the platforms’ heavy use of always-on services, will require a flat rate data tariff. Similarly, Xbox gamers looking to buy such phones on a contract will have to wait until they can upgrade.

Both trends will reduce the immediate numbers of fans available in the launch window to the end of 2010.

The lack of realtime multiplayer features between phones and Xbox 360 at launch – however nonsensical in terms of coherent game experience, and business models – may remove some of the initial gloss for the real hardcore too.

Yet, over time, and as the list of shared features between the two platforms grows, it seems likely Windows Phone 7 will pick up a decent number of Xbox 360 users, especially – on the back of Microsoft advertising – in countries with strong Microsoft console communities.

Flip, reverse it

Ironically though, what could be as significant to Microsoft is how it handles the opposite flow between the platforms. For example, could Windows Phone 7 be as important to the future of Xbox Live as a gaming community, as Xbox 360 Xbox Live users are to Windows Phone 7 handset sales?

The reason is that any Windows Phone 7 user can register an Xbox Live account on-device, creating their own avatar on the phone, and partaking of the services – at least, those made available to mobile players.

This will fragment the Xbox Live community, creating three groups – one very large one consisting of existing hardcore console gamers, one much smaller one consisting of more casual, mobile gamers, and an indeterminate mixture who are signed up via both devices.

Hence the challenge for Microsoft will be to two-fold.

It will need to encourage the two extremes to convert to the combined user group by persuading Xbox owners to get a Windows Phone 7 (and vice versa), while rolling out crossover services to those

who remain committed to a single device so that everyone is content with their Xbox Live experience, while simultaneously also being tempted to upgrade into the fully integrated Microsoft console-mobile world.

And that could be a very tall order, even with a $500 million warchest.（source:pocketgamer）