作者：Joost van Dreunen（SuperData创始人）

博彩游戏大概是最受人误解的游戏类型，但在休闲玩家当中，又极其受欢迎。经典博彩游戏如扑克牌和老虎机都有大量受众，远超《FarmVille》和《Candy Crush》。

关于博彩游戏业的头条新闻当然不会少。在2012年初，IGT以惊人巨价5亿美元收购Double Down Interactive。几个月以后，Caesars Entertainment收购了Playtika，后者是《Slotomania》的制作公司，其月活跃用户高达890万人，月收入大约是1830万美元。社交游戏市场的领袖Zynga雇用从事赌博行业的主管，以便向社交博彩游戏领域拓展，进而恢复它在股市的地位。

casino game(from zlive-s3-assets)

这些事件提醒我们是时候更加关注社交博彩游戏了。

社交博彩游戏的现状

自2010年起，玩社交博彩游戏的玩家总数涨了一倍，现在大概占社交游戏玩家总数的三分之一。就收益来看，社交博彩游戏玩家的消费额是普通社交游戏玩家的两倍。

最近数据表明，博彩类游戏的付费玩家的平均消费额是69.13美元，而社交游戏玩家仅为35.82美元（2012年11月）。总体看来，美国社交博彩游戏玩家在2012年共消费6.98亿美元，而世界市场规模是17亿美元，因此，美国是社交博彩游戏的最大市场。最保守估计，到2015年全球社交博彩游戏市场规模有望达到27亿美元。

社交博彩游戏的成功在于它以年长的、非传统游戏玩家的群体为目标受众。虽然扑克牌受众确实与传统游戏受众重叠，即70%的平均年龄为27岁的男性；而老虎机和博彩类游戏则同样定位于更加年长一些的受众（平均年龄超过30岁）。虏获这类受众是关键，因为这些玩家往往会玩更多游戏，对自己玩的游戏更忠实。

两类公司

不出所料，许多公司都在积极地开发这类玩家。粗略算来，有两类公司。第一类公司是指望靠博彩游戏获利的社交游戏公司。社交游戏在2011年呈爆炸性的发展，到2012年初势头转弱——特别是中小规模的游戏公司，不得不开始另谋生路。

然而，进入社交博彩游戏领域不等于成功。例如，开发老虎机游戏的算法就很复杂，需要大量数学专门知识。所以传统的游戏公司必须雇用许多精通数学的博士开发赌博游戏。

显然，开发商要发行老虎机游戏的决心没有被这点困难击退。但在一个已经相当拥挤的市场上，竞争是很困难的，尤其是与那些拥有数十年开发这类游戏经验的公司相较劲之时。除了数学人才，小型开发商还很难建立庞大的受众基础。与Facebook上的其他游戏类似，成功很大程度上取决于有效的交叉推广能力（获得玩家）和保持玩家不断游戏的能力（留存率）。在目前的游戏业中，保证收益的唯一办法就是不断获取目标受众。

第二类公司是拥有场地的赌博运营商。长期以来，这类公司都不得不努力维持公众形象，毕竟在线赌博在美国是非法的。从他们的角度来看，社交博彩游戏是一个绝好的开发工具，能够吸引玩家在线赌博。

在《华尔街日报》最近的一篇文章中，Double Down的老板Greg Enell表示：“我们的想法是，现在先利用社交博彩游戏建立庞大的赌博游戏受众基础，这样当美国开始将在线赌博元素合法化的时候，我们就已经积累了大量在线玩家。”

他们要思考的一个最重要的问题是：有多少比例的社交博彩玩家会转变成付费赌博玩家？我们发现社交博彩游戏与赌博行为的受众是重叠的。在这些玩家中，超过三分之一的人一年两次光顾赌博场所，三分之二的人认为真钱赌博应该合法化。除了这股热情，我们应该注意的是，即使美国开始合法化在线赌博——可能性很大，它的税收结构也会严重地向赌博运营商的利益倾斜。

游戏公司，开始行动吧！

在社交网络上爆发后，博彩游戏现在又现身于手机平台了。例如，有几款收益颇丰的iOS游戏就是老虎机类游戏。但社交博彩游戏不是解决收益下滑问题的快速答案，也不是一种激进的玩家获取策略。

它需要是的创新。扑克牌游戏和宾戈纸牌游戏的制作非常简单，但如何在现有的概念上创新并超越经典，这才是真正的设计挑战。开发商往往将现有的游戏机制移植到新平台，但这只是新游戏类型产生的第一步。2013年的一个突破点是，谁能做出独特的经典博彩游戏。

最后，除了变成在线游戏和手机上的老虎机，社交博彩游戏可能是对行业的成熟度的一个终极考验。赌博成瘾的危险无需解释。就像针对游戏暴力的争论，业界的回应是强制执行自律系统；而针对赌博成瘾，社交博彩游戏的生态系统中必须产生一个作为领导者的核心公司。

如果美国政府合法化在线赌博，苹果会允许博彩游戏出现在iPhone上吗？Facebook对面向未成年人的社交博彩游戏广告又持什么态度？尽管几年前的“Scamville”等事件（游戏邦注：“Scamville”影射某些Facebook社交游戏通过欺骗玩家来增加收益）表明某些公司很可能在此放手一搏，但我们的网络社交活动未必一定会产生一片红灯区。

社交博彩游戏的发展势头和玩家对丰富的社交玩法的渴求，刺激大小游戏公司投身这一领域。也许尽管风险极大，但经验告诉我，这个行业已经足够成熟，并且对开发可持续的生态系统怀有同样强烈的兴趣。

回顾游戏行业的正面历史和它的自我批判方式，以及看到那么多有创意的独立开发者，我愿意打这个赌。你呢？（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

That other gaming – Why you should pay attention to social casino games

By Joost van Dreunen

As perhaps one of the most misunderstood genres, casino-style games are tremendously popular among social gamers. Classics like poker and slots draw large audiences, comparable to that of FarmVille and Candy Crush.

And there certainly has been no shortage in headlines. In early 2012, IGT acquired Double Down Interactive for a whopping $500 million. A few months later Caesars Entertainment bought Playtika, the company behind Slotomania, which has 8.9 million monthly active users and an estimated $18.3 million in monthly earnings. And market leader Zynga is rebuilding its share price by expanding its social casino efforts and by hiring executives from the gambling world.

With all this activity, it is time to take a closer look and see where we, as an industry, want to take social casino games.

The state of social casino

Since 2010 the total number of people playing social casino games has doubled, and today represents roughly one-third of the entire social gaming audience. In terms of revenue, the average social casino game player spends roughly twice as much as the average social gamer.

Our most recent numbers show that the average revenue per paying user among casino-style games was $69.13, compared to $35.82 for social gamers (November 2012). Overall, American social casino players spent $698 million in 2012, making the U.S. the biggest earner in the $1.7 billion worldwide market for social casino games. And even in the most conservative scenario, the total market is expected to reach $2.7 billion by 2015.

Social casino’s success is in its ability to target an older, non-traditional gaming audience. While poker’s audience does overlap with the traditional gamer with a 71% male audience with an average age of 27 years old, slots and casino style games reach a much older audience with an average player being in his late 30s. Bringing this demographic into social gaming fold has been the key, because these players typically play more intense games and tend to be loyal to their titles.

The major players

Unsurprisingly, a host of companies is actively pursuing this audience. Roughly, there exist two groups. On the one hand, there are the social game companies that see an opportunity to make money off this casino trend. After the explosive growth of social gaming in 2011 and early 2012 started to wane many — especially small and medium-sized –game companies began looking for new ways to make a living.

However, one does not simply walk into Mordor social casino. Developing a slots game algorithm, for instance, is a complex task, and requires a lot of mathematical expertise. Traditional gambling companies employ vast armies of PhD-equipped mathematicians to develop an appealing game experience.

Obviously this has not deterred many developers from releasing slots games. But in an already crowded market it is very difficult to compete on product, especially against companies that have decades of experience in building these games. Beyond the math, it’s difficult for smaller developers to attract a large audience base. Similar to other game genres on Facebook, success largely depends on the ability to cross-promote effectively (acquisition) and keep people playing (retention). At this point in the game, guaranteed riches can only come by being acquired, and that window is closing rapidly.

On the other hand there are the land-based casino operators. This group of companies has long struggled with a public image issue, and online gambling is illegal in the U.S. From their point of view, social casino provides an excellent acquisition tool to draw players to online, real-money destinations.

In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, Greg Enell who oversees Double Down, stated: “The thinking is that social gaming is a mechanism to build a large gambling-oriented audience now, so when elements of online gambling start to be legalized in U.S. we will have a big audience online.”

Their most important question is: What percentage of social casino players will convert to real-money gamblers? In our December issue we found that social casino players and gamblers are overlapping audiences. Over a third already visits a land-based casino more than twice a year, and two-thirds thinks real money gambling should be allowed. Despite this enthusiasm, the thing to remember is that even if the U.S. starts legalizing online gambling — and it’s a big “if” — its tax structure will be heavily skewed against the interests of casino operators.

Game companies, faites vos jeux!

After an explosive rise on social networks, casino games are now also cropping up on the mobile platform. Several of the key earners on iOS are slots-type games, for instance. But social casino is not a quick answer to either declining revenues or an aggressive acquisition strategy.

What it needs, however, is innovation. Poker games and bingo cards are easy enough to produce. But it is a real design challenge to innovate on an existing concept and to come up with a new spin on a classic game. Transplanting existing game mechanics into a new platform, as generally happens, is only the first stage of a new genre emerging. One of the key developments to look for in 2013 is who manages to offer a unique take on the classic casino-style games.

Finally, beyond the jingle of the online and mobile slot machines, social casino might prove to be the ultimate test of maturity for the industry. The dangers of gambling addiction need no explanation. But similar to the debate on video game violence, to which the industry responded by imposing a system of self-regulation, social casino games require the leadership of key companies in the ecosystem.

Will Apple allow gambling on iPhones even if the U.S. government legalizes it? What’s Facebook’s policy on serving social casino ads to minors? It is unlikely that a red-light district will emerge in the midst of our online social activity, even if incidents like Scamville from only a few years ago suggest that companies will undoubtedly try.

The current momentum behind the genre and the growing appetite for rich social game play invite both small and large companies to jump in. Perhaps against the odds, my money says the industry is mature enough and has a strong enough shared interest in developing a sustainable ecosystem.

And looking at the industry’s history to do the right thing, its self-critical approach and vast armies of creative independent developers, it’s a bet I’m willing to take. Are you? (source:gamasura)