作者：James Brightman

对GaemsIndustry International与全球游戏业务而言，2013将是快速发展的一年；开发商应忘掉去年零售量大幅下滑的情况，转而寻求吸引用户的更多渠道。如果接下来一年同去年一样精彩，那意味着我们即将踏上疯狂之旅。

那么，2013年的游戏行业将会呈现出怎样的发展势头？为此我们访问了游戏行业中的几位顶级分析师，他们发表了如下见解。

EEDAR的Jesse Divnich

1.智能电视的兴起

近来，我们发现索尼、谷歌、三星、Valve、OnLive与Zynga这些主流开发商正进军智能电视领域。虽然直接通过电视获得互动式娱乐的技术尚未成熟，但它们已准备好从对中间设备（电缆盒与/或游戏主机）的需求，转向利用电视操控游戏内容。

我们预想，今年1月的CES大会上将会展出拥有这些理念的产品，随着它们的实现，我们将会见识到Zynga、Rovio等公司以及制作出色游戏的主流游戏发行商对这项技术的强有力支持。

我们可能在2013年底才有望目睹这些愿景的实现，届时，主流趋势将会是改变我们获取互动式娱乐途径的智能电视。

2.数字内容收益赶超实体游戏

基本上，我们已达到这个目标，到2013年底，数字软件与微交易模式产生的收益将远超实体软件。

我们将会目睹到这股趋势的实现，但我们认为2013年将是西方市场的数字游戏收益将赶超实体游戏的一年。

3.《侠盗猎车手5》将位居畅销榜单之首

去年我已就此进行过预测，但该作却将发行时间推迟到2013年。

如果《侠盗猎车手5》在2013年春季发售，它可能会夺得畅销游戏榜单首位。一直以来，用户们都在渴望获得出色的AAA单人游戏体验，我们相信《侠盗猎车手》可以满足他们的要求，且能在游戏市场再次创造奇迹。

4.即时多人模式将成为移动/平板设备的重要性能

至今为止，多人异步体验模式一直是移动/平板设备上的最出众性能。它吸引了大批休闲用户，但却缺乏支持即时多人回合制的复杂软件。

然而，我们预计到2013年，即时多人或“同步多人”性能将脱颖而出。届时将催生出一些大型移动/平板电脑游戏，估计到2013年底，至少有10%以移动/平板电脑游戏为主的开发商会着眼于即时多人游戏。

5.移动领域将出现收购与裁员局面

去年，我们已经预测过社交游戏领域会出现大规模的裁员现象。虽然我们期望其中存在偏差，但现实却是如此。

我们预计2013年将有更多独立开发商被兼并，与此同时，那些表现不佳的员工将面临被解雇的境地。

同2012年的社交游戏领域一样，早期涉入移动初始公司的投资者开始感到压力，他们要么选择被收购，要么从中获取巨额回报。随着独立开发商数量大于收购需求，我们可能会在2013年目睹移动领域的大量裁员与工作室倒闭现象。

对此我们感到十分难过，虽然我们不希望这些预测转为现实，但就目前数据来看，移动/平板领域显然会在2013年经历一场重大变革。

Wedbush Securities的Michael Pachter

1.Wii U价格下降

Wii U可能会遭遇价格下降的境况，我本以为该设备会在发布初期售罄，但PS4的竞争性价格无疑显示Wii U的定价过高。此外，在2013年，Xbox 360与PS3设备可能会打折，相应价格将低于200美元，因此为了保持竞争优势，Wii U的售价不得不接近这些主机设备。

2.全新Bugie游戏将对多人模式收费

我想，《使命召唤》的巨大成功无疑让动视明白了一个道理：多人模式相当流行，免费模式不会为其带来收益。现在采取其它举措（游戏邦注：他们推出《Call of Duty Elite》，却无法从中获利）已为时过晚，但我们尚可推出一款仅含单人模式的全新游戏，而后采用订阅形式在多人模式上收费。Bungie的游戏十分适合这种盈利方式，因为它已拥有大批粉丝，且其单人游戏的售量大约是500-1000万款。如果有200-300万用户订阅多人服务项目，我相信动视与Bungie将十分满意这个结果，因为如果Bungie能够继续为该作注入趣味性与新鲜感，这个数值仍将继续上涨。我期望Bungie能够定期（可能是每月一次，或更加频繁）添加内容，那样会创造更多收益。

3.PS4会提前公布

据估计，为了赶在微软（将于E3大会前公开新设备）之前，索尼可能会在今年第一季度揭开PS4的真面目。我想，PS4将由商用组件构成，并设置多媒体功能，且价格（可能是399美元，或更少）具有竞争优势。索尼已在PSN上取得重大进展，而改进后的控制板将有助于玩家发现这台新型设备的全部性能。

4.下一代Xbox不会在2013年现身

我认为，本将在E3大会期间公布的Xbox 720，不会在2013年现身，而微软将发售日期定在2014年初。其中的主要原因是微软尚未决定该设备的性能，我认为，这台新型设备将支持电视节目直播功能，也就是说，微软需与有线电视供应商交涉，将这种功能整合到现存电缆基础设施中。其中工程相当复杂，因此需花费大量时间。我们希望Xbox 720可以获得有线电视供应商的支撑，如同运营商支持手机运行，其零售价可能不会高于200美元（也许低于100美元）。

5.《侠盗猎车手5》的销售将有所减缓

《侠盗猎车手》的售量可能仅有2000万套。众所周知，该游戏将登陆Xbox 360s与PS3s（今年中期推出2500万套左右），但它可能会遭遇某些麻烦，原因如下：首先，该作主要为单人模式，而目前游戏行业注重多人模式；其次，该作的发行期正好与下代主机设备冲突，也就是说，愿意“等待”下代主机的用户不太可能购买这款游戏。如果说有什么游戏敢公然挑战玩家逻辑，那么《侠盗猎车手5》便是如此，这可能全是一派胡言，但我认为喜爱多人游戏的玩家不可能购买单人游戏，因此，该游戏售量将仅局限在2000万套左右。而这是Rockstar发行单人游戏的代价，其战略显然有违行业发展方向，他们也并未顺时而变。

DFC Intelligence的David Cole

1.付费游戏盛行

智能手机与平板电脑的爆发始于2011年中期。它们相当热门，并吸引了各种用户类型。可惜，对游戏供应商而言，这一现象意味着游戏数量已大于市场需求。现在，付费移动游戏的基本售价是0.99美元。而大部分免费游戏则通过广告或附加内容盈利。随着该领域的投资额远远多于用户的支付额，该市场将逐渐陷入瓦解境地。DFC Intelligence相信，从长远来看，用户（尤其是平板游戏用户）会更加乐意为自己喜爱的游戏预先付费。我们预计，在2013年某些定价在5-10美元的应用会取得巨大成功。

2.投资与收益无法持衡

预计，零售量的下滑趋势将在2013年继续上演。这是个无法避免的实情。事实上，在2012年前11个月，游戏系统的软件零售额已超过我们在2012年初的预想，甚至是Wii与PSP的销售也相当可观。当然，这意味着零售量的下滑趋势并没有我们想象的那样糟糕。而且，人们也见识到整个行业的强烈用户需求以及销售增长。可惜，投资方主要通过零售模式获利。当代游戏系统的售量正在下滑，游戏行业需要新型的硬件系统扭转局面。可惜2013年的游戏领域将不会呈现多少盼头。

3.收购热潮

我们相信，用户仍强烈需要游戏，而且主要是电子游戏。许多拥有出色作品的游戏公司已努力借此获利，但身价却逐渐降低。在2013年，我们可能有望见到投资方利用促销举措盈利。

虽然我们无法判断各类用户的购买方向，但从投资的角度看，我们认为游戏价格将比前几年有所降低。自从2008年传统游戏公司股价的大幅下跌，Take-Two Interactive的目前身价已沦为EA在4年前打算收购时的一半。而EA本身的表现情况更是糟糕，其身价仅为2008年时的四分之一。任天堂可谓是身价暴跌最严重的一家，其市值从近800亿美元降至150亿美元。当然，Zynga更是经历了一场噩梦，从2012年初至年末，其股价从15美元降至3美元。

4.任天堂的平庸表现让索尼与微软暂缓推出新系统

回想2007年，Advertising Age因任天堂发布Wii美其名为年度最佳营销者。目前来看，Wii U的销售并没有多大问题。但从18个月前公布该系统，到无法讲解系统的优势，任天堂似乎失去了向大众推广产品的途径。其本身拥有的一个强大优势是能向核心用户与大量主流用户推广产品。Wii U与3DS XL的平淡出场则表明他们对这两台设备缺乏信心。

当然，任天堂的忠实粉丝抢光Wii U可能会导致该设备在2013年的短缺。问题是，市场上的大众用户仍不了解Wii U。据悉，Wii U发布当周，微软Xbox 360的售量相当可观。其中不少用户可能是Wii U的潜在买家。然而，该行业存在的长期问题是，任天堂的糟糕表现意味着微软与索尼在推出新型游戏系统面临较小压力。行业需要一家更强大的“任天堂”来制造紧张氛围。

5.XBLA与PSN的突破性成功促使开发商涌入主机平台

Xbox Live Arcade平台上的《Minecraft》已取得巨大成功。目前，Xbox 360与PlayStation 3平台上拥有大批乐意购买数字内容的用户。现在，体面的产品无需推出零售模式，便可在主机系统上获得丰厚收益。我们想，2013年将会有更多主机电子游戏取得成功。当然，我们预计，如往常一样，涌入该市场的开发商不会有太多成功案例。但这就是游戏行业的残酷本质。

Inside Network的Billy Pidgeon

1.游戏用户数量继续暴涨

游戏属于这个大众市场上的主流媒介。相比以往，如今体验游戏的用户量更多。单单Facebook平台上便有2.5亿多玩家。我相信硬核玩家数量不会下降，但他们会以不同方式体验游戏。而且该领域较少出现长时体验AAA游戏的玩家，他们更偏爱多人游戏。同比之前，玩家们可以体验钟爱作品的附加内容，并能够在更多平台上访问高品质游戏。

许多体验简单休闲游戏的玩家其实拥有更多游戏经验，他们渴望更棒玩法，且乐意为此付费。他们不必转向主机平台寻求更加出色的作品。

2.下一代主机设备不会带来多大影响

我们可能有望在2013年见到下一代主机设备。我认为它将是Xbox 360的继承者。索尼可能（应当）会重新发布一台新主机，但也可能继续推出PS3。而Xbox 360仍会是盒装游戏销售的主要平台。

3.主机游戏不会消逝，但不复过去的光辉时刻

虽然Wii U与Xbox继承者的售量将比以往略胜一筹，但传统零售游戏在2013年的表现可能会令人失望。2012年盒装游戏的售量与盈利情况并不可观，到了2013年可能会更糟。GameStop尤其会遭遇重创，因为二手盒装游戏市场正在紧缩。

然而，专门性的主机业务已发生改变。随着新型主机设备的发布，主机硬件与主机盒装软件的收益额会继续上涨。第八代主机的销售情况可能比前代更加缓慢，且盒装游戏的用户粘性相对较低。第七代主机已存在过久，下代设备的推迟发售可能会令该设备在硬核游戏市场上失去更多占有率，并导致PC、平板电脑与智能手机的融合。

4.数字游戏收益再次呈现两位数增长趋势

有关数字游戏的收益情况从未如实报道。实际上，来自付费下载、道具交易与各种平台（游戏邦注：包括主机、PC、平板电脑与智能手机）服务项目的收益金额弥补2012年硬件与盒装软件的销售缺口真是绰绰有余。通过观察与研究，我相信，数字游戏收益将继续呈现两位数的增长趋势。但我不太确定销售商与发行商是否会提供正确数据支持这个事实。

5.智能手机与Facebook上将出现高品质游戏

智能手机与Facebook平台将出现更多高品质游戏，同时，开发商会继续开发出更加复杂的游戏。而玩家的期望越高，相应预算也随之提升。那些从未拥有大量资金的小型开发商可能无法进军移动或Facebook平台。而且，我们将在电视上见到更多来自PC、云计算与下载模式的游戏。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Crystal Gazing: What to Expect in 2013

by James Brightman

Leading industry analysts join with our staff to prognosticate about what the future holds for the games business

In just a few short days, 2013 will be upon us. Happy New Year to our readers! It’s been an incredible year of growth for GamesIndustry International and for the global games business as a whole; ignoring huge retail declines, there are more ways than ever for developers to get their games into the hands of players. If the next 12 months are as exciting as the last 12 have been, we’re in for a wild ride.

So what does 2013 have in store for the games industry? We polled several top game industry analysts and asked the GamesIndustry International staff to weigh in as well (see sidebar section on right side below). If even half of these predictions come true, it’s sure going to make attending 2013′s major trade shows quite entertaining.

Jesse Divnich, EEDAR

1. Smart Televisions – They Will be Kind of a Big Deal

We’ve recently seen major players such as Sony, Google, Samsung, Valve, OnLive, and Zynga throw their hats into the Smart Television ring. While accessing interactive entertainment directly through your television is still in its infancy, all the major players are preparing for what could be a significant shift to circumvent the need for an intermediate device (cable box and/or game console) to regulate and control content through your television.

We expect this year’s CES in January to showcase an abundance of concept products that plan to bring high quality interactive entertainment directly through your television and as these concepts become more material, we’ll begin to see strong support from the largest content creators such as Zynga, Rovio, and the major console publishers.

We’ll likely not see any material news or products launch until late 2013, but eventually the big trend in late 2013 will be Smart Televisions and their ability to revolutionize the way we consume interactive entertainment.

2. Digital Gaming Revenue to Surpass Physical

We are nearly there already, but by the end of 2013, more revenue will be generated through the consumption of digitally purchased software and micro-transactions than physically purchased software.

We’ve all seen this trend coming and it should be no surprise on its eventual occurrence, but we suspect that 2013 will be the year that digital revenues surpass physical revenues in the Western Markets.

3. GTA V Will Be Number One

Last year, I made a similar prediction, but unfortunately the title was delayed into 2013.

If GTA V is released in the spring of 2013, it will become the number one grossing title of 2013 for all of interactive entertainment. Consumers have been starved for a great AAA single player experience for some time and we believe there is enough pent up demand for GTA to once again set some records.

4. Real-Time Multiplayer To Become A Driving Mobile/Tablet Feature

To date, the asynchronous multiplayer feature has been the most popular on the mobile and tablet devices. This has mostly been driven by a casual consumer base and a lack of sophisticated software to support proper real-time multiplayer sessions (along with proper RPG and stat tracking elements).

In 2013, however, we expect that real-time multiplayer or “synchronous multiplayer” will become an emerging popular feature. It will likely take a few big mobile/tablet titles to bring this prediction to light, but by the end of 2013, we expect that at least one, if not two, of the top ten selling mobile/tablet games will have a real-time multiplayer focus.

5. Mobile – The Biggest Year for Acquisitions and Layoffs

Last year we predicted there would be massive layoffs in the social gaming space. One of the few predictions we hoped we’d be wrong about. We were not.

In 2013, we expect to see more independent developer acquisitions in conjunction with layoffs of those that couldn’t make the cut.

Much like the social gaming space in 2012, early investors into mobile start-ups are starting to put pressure on their investments to either position themselves for acquisition, or begin to realize significant profit returns. With the supply of independent developers being larger than the demand for acquisition, we anticipate that we’ll begin to see sizable layoffs and studio closures in the mobile space in 2013.

It’s a sad prediction to make, one we hope doesn’t actualize, but with the data in front of us it is clear that the mobile/tablet landscape is likely to go through a significant transformation in 2013.

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities

1. Wii U Feeling Price Cut Pressure

Wii U will get a price cut-I think that the Wii U will sell out for the first several months, but think that once the PS4 is announced at a competitive price, the Wii U will look overpriced. At the same time, we will probably see Xbox 360 and PS3 discounted to under $200 at some time in 2013, so the Wii U will have to price closer to those consoles to remain competitive.

2. New Bungie Game to Charge for Multiplayer

The Bungie game will charge for multiplayer-I think that the phenomenal success of Call of Duty has taught Activision a lesson: multiplayer is extremely popular, and it’s impossible to profit if you allow people to play for free. It’s too late to do anything about CoD (they tried-and failed-to monetize with Call of Duty Elite), but it’s not too late to introduce a new IP that is single player only, and that requires a subscription to play multiplayer. I think the Bungie game is perfect for this, as Bungie has a huge following, and the game is likely to sell 5 – 10 million units for the single player experience. I believe that Activision and Bungie will be happy if 2 – 3 million people subscribe to the multiplayer service, as that figure is likely to grow over the years if Bungie can keep the game interesting and fresh. My expectation is that there will be regular content drops, probably monthly or more frequently, so subscribers will get something for their money.

3. PS4 Announced Sooner Than You Think

The PS4 will be announced during the first quarter, and will launch before year-end-expect Sony to try to get a head start on Microsoft with an announcement before E3, likely in the first quarter of 2013. I think that PS4 will be built from commodity components, allowing Sony to charge a competitive price (likely $399 or less), and will be packed full of multimedia functionality. Sony has made great progress with PSN, and an improved dashboard would help gamers discover all of the features of the new device.

4. No Next-Gen Xbox in 2013

Expect the Xbox 720 announcement at E3-I don’t think the Xbox 720 will come out in 2013, but think that Microsoft will announce the device at E3, with a launch date in early 2014. The problem with a 2013 launch is that the feature set is not yet decided, and I think that the box will be able to receive television programming live, meaning that Microsoft has to negotiate with cable TV providers to deliver the box and integrate its functionality into the existing cable infrastructure. That’s pretty complicated, so it could take time. Expect the Xbox 720 to be subsidized by cable TV providers, much like cell phones are subsidized by carriers, with a likely retail price under $200 (and maybe under $100).

5. GTA V May See Slower Than Usual Sales

Grand Theft Auto may struggle and sell “only” 20 million units-I think that conventional wisdom is that GTA V will attach to 25 percent of all Xbox 360s and PS3s out there (around 25 million units at launch mid-year), but it might have some trouble doing so for a couple of reasons: first, the game is primarily single-player, and the industry has morphed into a primarily multiplayer world; second, the game is launching the same year as next generation consoles, meaning that people who are willing to “wait” for the next generation are less likely to buy the game. If there is any franchise that defies logic, it’s this one, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that people who love multiplayer will not be as likely to buy a primarily single-player game, limiting sales to “only” 20 million units or so. That’s the price Rockstar pays for releasing games so far apart-the industry has moved away from them, and they haven’t necessarily adapted.

David Cole, DFC Intelligence

1. The Bubble Bursts on Freemium Mobile

Smartphones and tablets exploded in the consumer mindset starting in mid-2011. These products are hot with all types of consumers. Unfortunately for serious content providers it has meant an explosion in development that far exceeds market demand. A premium mobile game is now one priced at $0.99. Most games are being given away for free with the goal to make money on advertising or an upsell (freemium). This is a market ready to collapse as the amount of investment dollars going into the space far exceeds consumer willingness to purchase. Long-term, DFC Intelligence believes that consumers, especially in the tablet space, will become more willing to buy the products they like upfront. In 2013 we are anticipating some big success stories in game apps priced in the $5-10 range.

2. Continued Investor Disconnect with the Game Revenue Model

The downward trend in retail sales is expected to continue in 2013. This has been very predictable and actually for the first 11 months of 2012, retail software revenue for all the current game systems were outselling the DFC Intelligence forecasts we presented at the start of 2012, even the Wii and PSP. Of course, all this means is the decline is not quite as bad as we predicted. Overall the industry shows strong consumer demand and the growth in digital sales has been impressive. Unfortunately, investors trade largely off of retail sales. The current generation of game systems is in decline and the industry will need new hardware systems to jump start sales at retail. Unfortunately for 2013 there is not a lot on the horizon.

3. A Year for Acquisitions

DFC Intelligence believes that there is strong consumer demand for games and that this demand is closely tied to strong video game brands. Many of the companies with the strongest brands have struggled to take full advantage of those brands and seen their value decline. Going into 2013 we see potential for investors to try and grab some bargains.

It is impossible to say who will buy what, but we can say that from an investment perspective the category is a lot less expensive than it was several years ago. Since 2008 the stock of traditional game companies has declined significantly. Take-Two Interactive is worth less than half of what it was when Electronic Arts tried to buy them four years ago. For its part, Electronic Arts’ performance has been even worse. EA is worth about a quarter of what it was in 2008. Nintendo has had one of the biggest collapses, seeing its market value go from almost $80 billion to the $15 billion range. Of course, then there is the nightmare collapse of Zynga whose stock went from almost $15/share in early 2012 to an end of year price in the sub-$3 range.

4. Tepid Mass Market Reaction to Wii U Causes Sony and Microsoft to Hold Off on Launching New Systems

Back in 2007 Nintendo was named marketer of the year by Advertising Age for the launch of the Wii. Right now, there is no danger of that happening with the Wii U. From announcing the system 18 months before its launch to the continued inability to communicate the strengths of the system, it seems Nintendo has lost its way with communicating to mass market consumers. A great strength of Nintendo was its ability to communicate with both its core audience AND more mainstream consumers. The launch of both the Wii U and the 3DS XL were very subdued affairs that indicate a lack of confidence in the product.

Of course, the Wii U sold out to the initial core base of Nintendo fans and is likely to be in short supply well into 2013. The problem is that an alarming number of people in the broader mass market are still unaware of the Wii U. It is telling that the week the Wii U launched, Microsoft was touting impressive sales for the Xbox 360. Much of these consumers were probably potential Wii U buyers. The long term issue for the industry is a weak performance by Nintendo means that there is less pressure on Microsoft and Sony to release new game systems. The industry needs a stronger Nintendo to keep it on edge.

5. More Breakout Successes on XBLA and PSN Cause Developers to Flock Towards Online Console Products

Minecraft on Xbox Live Arcade was a huge success. The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have now built a large audience that is very comfortable making digital purchases. The right product can now generate substantial sales on console systems without ever having to be launched at retail. We think 2013 will see even more success stories in digital only console titles. Of course, as usual, we expect that developers will overflood the market with product resulting in more losers than winners. However, that is just the nature of the beast in the game industry.

Billy Pidgeon, Inside Network

1. The Audience for Games is Still Growing But Could Peak in 2013

Games are a mainstream medium for the mass market. There are more people playing games today then there have ever been. There are more than 250 million gamers on Facebook alone. I do not believe the hardcore gamer base has decreased, but I do believe they are playing games differently. Gamers are playing fewer AAA games for longer periods of time and multiplayer is a preferred play mode for many. Gamers are extending play in their favorite games with add-on content, and can access high quality games on more platforms then ever before.

2. The Next Generation of Consoles is Here But Will Have Low Impact

We’re likely to see a next-generation console release in 2013. I believe it will be the successor to Xbox 360. Sony could (and should) reboot with a new console, but will probably continue to push PS3. Xbox 360 will still be the dominant platform for sales of packaged games.

3. Console Games Aren’t Going Away, But They’re Not Coming Back to Reclaim Past Numbers

Although sales of Wii U and the successor to Xbox 360 will be respectable in comparison to past console launches, games will be a disappointing category for traditional retailers in 2013. The unit and revenue numbers on boxed games were not good in 2012, and they’ll likely be worse in 2013. GameStop will be hit particularly hard, as the market for packaged pre-owned games is deflating.

But the dedicated console business has changed. Revenue from console hardware and packaged software for consoles will increase somewhat with new consoles being launched. Uptake for eighth generation consoles will be much slower than in previous cycles, and attach rates of packaged games will be weaker. The seventh generation has had an overlong lifecycle, and the delay in launching next generation will see dedicated consoles lose still more market share in the hardcore games sector to convergent platforms such as PC, tablets and, to a lesser extent, smartphones.

4. Double-Digit Growth for Digital Revenue, Again

Revenue from digital game distribution has never been accurately reported. Rather, it’s been consistently under-reported. Digital revenue from paid downloads, item transactions and services generated on all platforms — consoles, PC, tablets and smartphones — actually more than made up for the 2012 decreases noted in aggregate hardware and packaged software revenue. Based on my research and observations, I believe digital revenue will continue to grow at double-digit rates. I am less certain that vendors and publishers will provide corraborating numbers to back this up.

5. Games On Smartphones and Facebook Will Close The Quality Gap

More games for smartphones and Facebook will be higher quality, and players are developing more sophisticated tastes. Expectations are higher, and budgets are rising in accordance. It will be very difficult for small developers without heavy funding to break into mobile or Facebook. We’ll also see more games delivered to television from PC, cloud and downloadable.(source:gameindustry)