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阐述AAA级游戏面临的现状和应对措施

发布时间:2012-12-15 11:28:27 Tags:,,,,

作者:Josh Bycer

游戏产业又经历了一年的发展,但是今年却遭遇了利润下降以及更多工作室纷纷倒闭。所以今天我们将着重分析AAA级游戏开发所面临的问题,以及我们该采取哪些措施。

当着眼于开发工作室时,我们可以将其分为三种类型:独立开发工作室,中层开发工作室以及AAA级开发工作室。过去10年里,整个产业趋于数字化的转变推动着独立开发者和中层开发者的发展,但却让AAA级开发者倍感压力。

不断出现一些关于大型开发商推出的低质量游戏并遭遇经济损失等报道让我们不免好奇:AAA级游戏开发到底怎么了?

对于AAA级开发工作室的偏见:

Dead Space 3(from gamasutra)

Dead Space 3(from gamasutra)

当我们在讨论不同工作室的的区别时,总是会参杂着有关其作品质量的偏见。

愿意购买独立游戏的消费者不会期待游戏图像具有多高的保真度。而那些购买了AAA级游戏的玩家则会倾心于完全无漏洞,且具有非常出色的设计与图像的游戏。

在整个消费者产业中,产品的质量都必须反应在价格上。这也是为何有些人甘愿花更多钱选择5星级酒店的主要原因(一分钱一分货)。

但是,现在的玩家却发现AAA开发工作室的游戏质量和独特性正不断下滑。第一人称射击游戏和在线游戏数量不断增加,越来越多游戏拥有了多人游戏选项和可下载内容。

甚至是一些已建立的品牌也受到影响,就像《生化危机6》变得更像是行动合作游戏而不是恐怖游戏。随后又有报道说《死亡空间3》也将在恐怖游戏设计基础上添加更多合作元素。

如今我们可以断定,开发商和发行商们都会阅读用户们的反馈以及各种评论。但是现在,他们真正面对的情况是,游戏产业发生了巨大的变化,AAA级开发工作室也发生了巨大的改变。

开发成本:

任何行业都需要遵循一个基本规则,即公司只有不断赚取利润才能生存。如果有一天你发现自己赚不到钱了,随后你便会面对一些更糟糕的情况。

运营成本便是一大原因。每一天的业务运营都会不断地增加你的每日成本。不管是电费,房租,还是每日工资等都是以天为单位不断累积。

当某一天你的利润开始遭遇损失,或者生产力开始下降时,你的公司便会因为运营成本的消耗而每况愈下。这便是为何那些基于销售的公司如此重视每日销量,因为他们需要以此弥补运营成本并因此赚得利润。

尽管电子游戏工作室被当成是消费品行业,但是它们的利润结构却与其它产业不同,尽管拥有相同的成本。游戏工作室每一天都致力于游戏中,如果哪一天他们不再能够弥补运营成本的损失,他们便会开始赔钱。但是他们也并非每天都能赚到钱去弥补这些成本。

相反地,工作室更希望在游戏发行时获得更大的收益去弥补所有费用,并赚取利润。利润结构总是推动着更大的开发工作室去维持发行商与开发商之间的关系。

普通工作室一般都未拥有足够的存款能够在获取收益前维持开发成本。

而发行商在AAA级游戏的开发过程中具有很大的发言权,如果开发商不能有效取悦发行商,后者便不会继续资助游戏的开发。这便意味着发行商更不愿意看到风险性较高的游戏或利基游戏,因为这类型游戏不一定能够赚取足够的利益去弥补他们之前所付出的成本。

发行商最不想看到的两种情景是:

1.出现了有关游戏的糟糕评论。

2.玩家很喜欢游戏也给予了正面的评价,但是它却赚不到足够的利益去弥补成本支出。

尽管玩家会认为第二种方案也等于成功,但是对于发行商来说,这两种都是失败的情景。

这也是AAA级游戏设计开始出现均质化的一部分原因。当发行商看到像《使命的召唤》,《战争机器》或《魔兽世界》等游戏的成功时,他们便会期待着自己的游戏也能够取得相同的结果。这便意味着他们需要投入上百万美元去开发一款类似的游戏,但却不一定能够从中赚回成本。

促销对于独立开发者和玩家来说是巨大的恩惠,但是对于AAA级开发工作室来说却是噩梦。

定价悖论:

随着像Steam,亚马逊等网站的数字发行的发展,设计师和在线零售商也开始进行游戏促销。在之前,只有像百思卖或GameStop等连锁店才能最终决定游戏的定价。

游戏的折扣率将影响着玩家是否愿意在发行时购买游戏,或是否考虑购买基于零售价(60美元)的游戏。

在其它产业中,基于品牌质量和产品本身的原因,产品总是会保持着自己的价值。就像不管我等多久也不可能以1000美元的价格购得一辆新的兰博基尼。

Skyrim(from gamasutra)

Skyrim(from gamasutra)

《天际》是少数几款由制作价值影响定价的游戏。

同时,汽车公司们也知道不能让每辆车都向雷克萨斯或梅赛德斯那样,否则市场中便只有各种高端汽车。

这也是为何会出现不同层次,且不同价格的汽车,显然,你投入越多资金便意味着你获得的汽车质量越高。与此同时,低价汽车也拥有资深的质量标准,从而让它们能够维持价格。

但是在电子游戏产业中,特别是对于AAA级开发工作室来说,并不存在不同的价值。他们认为60美元的价格标签可以粘贴在《光晕》,《死亡空间》或《索尼全明星大乱斗》等任何游戏中。但是在我们眼里,60美元的定价并不是基于同等的质量标准,而是根据游戏所获得的评论分数进行设定。

如今,比起AAA级开发者,我们更能在独立开发者和中层开发者的游戏中感受到更多价值。小型工作室更有可能创造出独特的游戏,因为他们所需要的成本远远少于大型工作室。而更少的成本便意味着他们能够为游戏设定更低的定价,从而让更多人能够买得起游戏,并且开发商们也能够赚得更多利益。

单人AAA级游戏逐渐衰败的一大原因是便是价值问题。典型的单人玩家游戏经常是基于8至10个小时的游戏过程(游戏邦注:不包括支线任务和额外的内容)。但是现在的AAA级游戏虽然游戏时间较短,但却仍维持着60美元的定价。

比起降低价格并创造更多价值,设计师们选择添加更多多人游戏元素和可下载游戏玩法去延伸游戏时间。最终便导致呈现在玩家面前的既不是单人玩家游戏也不是多人玩家游戏,而是参杂着各种多人游戏元素的单人玩家游戏。

去年我最常玩的游戏便是《以撒的结合》和《地下城冒险》。我共花了100多个小时去玩这两款游戏。我在游戏发行时分别花了5美元去购买它们。而如果我能从2款5美元的游戏中获得所有价值,我又有什么理由花费60美元去玩一款AAA级游戏呢?

很遗憾,大多数游戏玩家都不会这么做。如今很少有售价60美元的游戏能够真正对得起自己所呈现出的价值。只有少数像Bethesda,Bio-Ware以及Rockstar等工作室能够创造出真正对得起价格标签的游戏。

这些游戏要么就是拥有巨大的范围和较高的制作机制(如《天际》,《荒野大镖客》),要么就是跨越整个多人游戏而传达一个完整的故事(如《质量效应》)。但是这都未能停止发行商基于完整的零售模式进行定价,并推动整个市场趋于饱和。

你也许会好奇:“为什么发行商不降低零售价格?”但是问题就在于他们别无选择。

游戏引擎变得越来越强大,所以使用这些引擎的代价也随之壮大。图像,音乐,声音以及图像都是制作一款游戏所需要的额外成本。所以最终便导致,发行商要想补偿开发成本的话,就只能为游戏设定60美元的销售价格。

除了游戏开发和工作室维护成本外,我们还需要考虑广告成本。因为我们经常能在电视,网站以及杂志上看到AAA级游戏,所以可想而知其广告成本应该是笔不小的数目。

而中层开发者和独立开发者因为只拥有较少的开发成本,所以只能为游戏设定较低的价格,但却仍然能够从中获利。较低的成本让开发者在销售游戏时拥有一定的摆动空间,但是大型开发商却没有。

Darksiders 2(from gamasutra)

Darksiders 2(from gamasutra)

尽管《暗黑血统2》收到了许多正面的评价也取得不错的销售成绩,但却仍不能补偿THQ为其所投入的成本。

除此之外,大多数独立开发者和中层开发者都不会投入过多费用于广告中,而是更多地依赖于口口相传模式和正面评论去推动销量的提升。

其实不花费设计师过多成本与使用广告一样强大。

促销影响:

因为游戏价格与质量并没有多大关系,所以在电子游戏中并不存在各种定价。如此,每一款电子游戏都是遵循着相同的销售理念去制定价格点。价格越低的电子游戏越能吸引更多人的注意。

应该很多人都曾只是出于便宜而购买过一款2美元的游戏。关于游戏,我们都有自己的冲动购买门槛,像我便是10美元以下。

如果游戏的价格越接近我们的认知价值,我们便越有可能花钱购买它。不管游戏过去的定价是15美元还是60美元,反正我们看到的是现在的价格。

因为开发成本较低,小型开发者也可以通过促销去赚钱。如果游戏发行时的价格为15美元(游戏邦注:基于销售额的提高和较低的开发成本),那么将价格调至5美元将能够推动游戏的进一步发展。

但是如果投入了数百万成本且售价为60美元的游戏降到5美元,那么开发者便很难赚回成本了。最近THQ便宣称《暗黑血统2》遇到了这一问题。尽管游戏得到了正面的评价,并售出了100多万份,但是THQ表示只有再售出100万份才有可能保持游戏的收支平衡。

《死亡空间》亦是如此。几个月前艺电便表示,为了确保续集的推出,他们的下一款游戏至少需要卖出500万份才能支持后续开发。

放弃一些东西:

如果发行商要求更大的利润去继续开发系列游戏,AAA级开发便会陷入困境中。发行商主要是通过广告,可下载内容和其它盈利方式去提高利润。所以我们很难去区分其中的贪婪与必然。

随着越来越多工作室面临倒闭以及越来越多发行商遭遇经济损失,我们清楚必须做出改变了。如今的AAA级工作室仍然遵循着过去10年的运行方式。但是随着越来越多低价且易用游戏的出现,以及整个产业日趋数字化,游戏市场已经彻底发生了改变。

如今我们很难去判断花费60美元于游戏中是否合理,但这仍是发行商所喊出的标准零售价。而随着盈利机制的发展,愿意为同样价格游戏掏腰包的玩家数量却越来越少了。

迎着下一波主机热潮,我们可以预见AAA级游戏的开发成本将进一步提升。而这对于那些不得不投入更多资本于游戏中的发行商,以及仍然能够感受到经济影响的玩家来说却不是件好事。

什么时候大型开发工作室才能在维持好发行商与开发商良好关系的前提下去控制开发成本。今年,Kickstarter的崛起更是让问题区域复杂化了,即开发商们可以无需发行商的干预而为游戏筹集到必要的资金。

我认为,发行商要么需要想办法去削减成本,并降低游戏价格,要么便需要转向较低预算的游戏。我们可以将过去十年总结为“数字市场的崛起”,而如果发行商不能正视今后十年的变化,这将变成是“AAA级游戏面临衰败”的十年。

本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Are AAA Studios DOA?

by Josh Bycer

Another year of the game industry has been marked by lower profits and studio closings. Today’s post examines the problems facing AAA development and what could be done.

When we look at development studios, there are three categories that we can group them into: Indies, middle tier and AAA studios. Over the last decade, the move to digital has aided Indies and middle tier developers, while AAA has been feeling the burn.

With reports of losses and lower quality titles going around the larger development houses, we need to ask: What is going on with AAA development?

The Preconception of AAA Studios :

When we talk about the differences between the different studios, there are preconceptions based on the quality of the work that comes through.

A consumer, who buys an indie game, doesn’t expect graphic fidelity on par with looking out their window. And at the same time, someone buying an AAA title expects a bug free experience, wrapped up in amazing design and graphics.

In all consumer industries, the quality of the product should be reflected in the price. That is one of the main reasons why people are willing to spend more at 5 star restaurants as they expect a premium product for that price.

However, gamers have been seeing a drop of quality and uniqueness among the AAA studios.  The number of First Person Shooters and online games has increased, with more titles being developed with multiplayer options and DLC.

Even established brands are being affected, with Resident Evil 6 designed more as an action co-op game then a horror title. Then there was a report about Dead Space 3 was going to go the same route with adding co-op to a horror designed game.

Now it’s safe to assume that the developers and publishers are reading fan reactions and seeing the criticisms levied at them. But what has happened is that the culture of the industry has changed and AAA studios are not adjusting.

The Cost of Development:

There is a basic rule of any major business: The company has to keep making a profit to stay alive. If you have a day where you’re not making money, then you are doing even worse then you may realize.

The reason has to do with operating cost. Every day that your business is running there are daily costs that have to be factored in. Electricity, rent, hourly wages and more are just some of the costs that come up every day.

When you have profit lost or no productivity one day, you are even worse off than before due to operating costs. This is why companies based around selling are so aggressive about daily sales, as they need to cover the operating costs to make a profit.

While a video game studio is considered a consumer product industry, their profit structure is different from other industries while having the same cost. Every day that a game studio is working on a title, is a day where they are losing money due to operating costs. But at the same time, they are not making money every day to cover that.

Instead, the studio expects a massive pay out once the game is released to cover all the expenses and of course, make a profit.  Because of the profit structure, it forces larger development studios into the publisher-developer relationship.

A normal studio does not have the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars of savings to cover the cost of development in preparation for that payday.

Publishers have a major say in the development of AAA titles, as if the developer doesn’t keep the publisher happy, then they won’t have the funding needed to finish the game. This also means that publishers are more adverse to risky or niche titles that may not sell enough to cover the cost of making the game.

There are two scenarios that no publisher wants to see with their titles:

1. The game bombs with horrible reviews.

2. The game gets positive reviews and fans liked it, but the game doesn’t sell enough to cover the costs.

While a fan would consider the 2nd scenario a win, to a publisher they are both failures.

This is part of the reason for the homogenizing of AAA game design. When one publisher sees the success of a game like Call of Duty, Gears of War or World of Warcraft, they want the same results with their series. And that means spending millions of dollars on developing a game with similar design that may or may not make that money back.

But there is one area that has become a huge boon to Indies and gamers and a nightmare to AAA studios: Sales.

The Pricing Paradox:

With the growth of digital distribution from sites like Steam, Amazon and many more, has allowed both designers and the online retailers to introduce sales. Before, retail chains like Best Buy and GameStop had the final say on what a game would cost.

The rate that games have become discounted, has caused many gamers to no longer buy games at release, or what would be considered full retail ($60.)

In other industries, products retain their value due to the quality of the brand and the product itself. For example, I will never be able to buy a brand new Lamborghini for $1000 no matter how long I wait.

Skyrim is one of a few games whose scope and production values justify setting its price at full retail.

Likewise, car companies know that they can’t make every car like a Lexus or Mercedes as it would just over saturate the market with high end cars.

That’s why cars are made and priced at different levels, obviously the more money you spend means a higher quality. But at the same time, lower priced cars still have a standard of quality to them that lets them retain their price.

But in the video game industry, specifically AAA studios, there is no differing value. A $60 price tag can be attached to anything from Halo, to Dead Space or Playstation All Stars Battle Royale. But as we’re seeing, the $60 price doesn’t come with the same standard of quality, as evident by the review scores games are getting.

There is just more value these days in Indie and mid tier developers then there are in AAA studios. The smaller studios can get away with more out there and unique games, as their costs are smaller compared to the larger studios. The smaller cost means that they can price their games lower and more affordable and still make money.

One of the reasons why we’ve seen a decline in single player AAA titles is the issue of value. A typical single player game is usually designed around 8 to 10 hours of gameplay (not counting side quests and extra content.) But even with that low number of playtime, they are still being priced at $60 new.

Instead of lowering the price and to create more value, designers have been adding more multiplayer and DLC gameplay to extend the play-time. What ends up happening is that instead of getting an amazing single-player game or an amazing multiplayer game, we get an average single player with a possible above average multiplayer.

Last year my two most played games were The Binding of Isaac and Dungeons of Dredmor. Between the two I’ve spent over 100 hours combined playing them. Buying them both cost me a total of $10 at launch. Now if I could get all that value out of two $5 games, why should I spend $60 on an AAA title?

The answer sadly, is that I and most gamers shouldn’t. There are very few games being released at $60 that are actually worth that amount in terms of player value. Only a few studios like Bethesda, Bio-Ware and Rockstar for example makes games that match the price tag.

These games are either huge in scope and production values (Skyrim, Red Dead Redemption), or a massive story carried across multiple games (Mass Effect). But that doesn’t stop every publisher from pricing their game at full retail and saturating the market.

Now you may ask yourself:” Then why don’t publishers just lower the retail price?” The problem is that they financially don’t have the option.

As game engines become more powerful, so does the cost of using them. Art, music, voice acting, graphics are all additional costs to making a title. What ends up happening is that publishers have no choice but to release games at $60, if they want to have any chance of recouping the development cost.

Besides the cost of game development and maintaining a studio, there are also advertisement costs. AAA titles are commonly seen on TV, websites and magazines. And the cost can be huge.

But a middle tier and Indie developers have a lower development cost allowing them to price their titles cheaper and still turn a profit. This lower cost gives the developers wiggle room when it comes to sales that the big developers don’t have.

Even though Darksiders 2 received decent reviews and sales. It still hasn’t made enough money to cover THQ’s expenses.

Helping matters further is that most indie and mid tier developers don’t spend much on advertisements and rely on word of mouth and positive reviews to drive sales.

Both don’t cost the designers any money and can be in some cases just as powerful (if not more so) as advertisements.

The Impact of Sales:

Because the price of a game has less relation to the quality of the title, we don’t see the variety of pricing when it comes to video games. Because of that, the concept of sales is the same for every video game as a way to get a title to the price point of the spender. The lower the price of a video game, the more people will be interested in buying it.

Raise your hand if you ever bought a $2 game for no other reason then it was cheap. We all have an impulse buy threshold when it comes to games, for me its $10 or less.

The closer a game gets to our perceived value raises the chance that we’re going to buy it. That doesn’t matter if a game was originally priced at $15 or $60, but what it is priced at now.

Because of the lower development cost, it allows smaller developers the ability to make money with their games on sale. If a game was released for $15, dropping that down to $5 will still help them thanks to the increase in sales and lower cost of development.

But if a $60 game that cost several millions to make is dropped to $5, the developers have a very hard time recouping the cost. Recently THQ announced problems with Darksiders 2. Even though the game was reviewed positively and sold around 1 million copies, THQ needs it to sell at least another million for them to break even.

Dead Space is also feeling the burn, as EA reported a few months ago that in order for the series to be considered viable, the next game will have to sell at least 5 million copies for them to justify continuing the series.

Something Has To Give:

AAA development is in dire straits, if publishers are asking such huge numbers to continue smaller series. Publishers are looking at advertisements, DLC and other monetization as a way of improving profits. It’s hard to tell from the outside at what point greed is taking over necessity.

As more studios are closed and publishers are reporting losses, something has to change. AAA studios are still operating the same way as they did in the last decade. But with the rise of cheaper, more accessible titles and the move to digital, the marketplace has changed.

It has become very difficult to justify spending $60 on any game these days, but that is still the standard retail price publishers are asking. And with the rise of monetization, gamers are getting less for the same amount of money.

With the next wave of consoles fast approaching, it can only mean further raising the cost of AAA development. This is not good for the publishers who have to invest the money and the gamers who are still feeling the effects of the economy.

We need to ask how much longer large studios can sustain the costs and development under a publisher-developer relationship. Further complicating matters is the rise of Kickstarter this year, allowing developers to fund a game of their choosing without a publisher’s intervention.

My prediction is that either publishers will have to find a way to cut costs and hopefully lower the price barrier of games, or they will have to switch focus to smaller budget titles. The last decade could be summed up with the description “the rise of the digital market”, if publishers aren’t careful this decade could become “the crash of AAA development.”(source:gamasutra


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