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每日观察:关注苹果iPad Mini预计售价及利润(10.22)

发布时间:2012-10-22 10:37:07 Tags:,,

1)据gamasutra报道,EA首席执行官John Riccitiello最近针对当前社交游戏市场发展减缓的现象表示,“用户不会为没有价值的东西掏钱”。

他在App Conference发言中承认,社交游戏市场被过分炒作,但这一市场并未走向灭亡,而是在不断演变发展。

EA-ceo(from usatoday30.usatoday.com)

EA-ceo(from usatoday30.usatoday.com)

他认为今天遭遇逆境的公司将会通过这些挑战而收获经验和教训,它们终会迎来新的一天。

EA在Facebook月活跃用户总数为3670万,而其最大的社交游戏《The Sims Social》一年前的用户都超过了这一数据(游戏邦注:其最高峰时的用户为6620万,当时Facebook尚未修改其平台用户计算方法),但现在月活跃用户仅剩1070万。

2)据serkantoto报道,日本社交游戏开发商GungHo日前宣布,旗下热门游戏《Puzzle & Dragons》仅在日本就已突破200万次Android和iOS下载量(游戏邦注:该游戏并未发布功能性手机版本,并且没有绑定Mobage或GREE等社交网络)。

Puzzle & Dragons(from joyme.com)

Puzzle & Dragons(from joyme.com)

《Puzzle & Dragons》于今年2月份登陆日本App Store,并在9月份入驻Android市场,在今年7月中旬实现100万次下载量。

GungHo还指出该游戏目前位居日本Google Play营收榜单第一名,在App Store则已连续数月稳居该榜单首位(最先称冠iPhone榜单,随后在iPad榜单登顶)。

该游戏英文版本预计于下个月上线。

3)据gigaom报道,针对谷歌第三季度“其他”领域的6.66亿美元收益(去年同期为3.85亿美元),Citi Research分析师Mark Mahaney认为其收益增长主要得益于Nexus 7的发售,并估计这一平板电脑销量约100万部左右,所创收益达2亿美元。而McQuarie Securities的Ben Schachter看法与此类似,他认为Nexus 7销售额介于1.5亿至2亿美元。

nexus-7(from wptee.com)

nexus-7(from wptee.com)

Piper Jaffray的Gene Muster统计谷歌Nexus销量介于80万至100万部,摩根大通的Doug Anmuth认为这一数据约70万。

谷歌在2011年的“其他收益”为13.7亿美元,这里所指的“其他”业务包括授权、企业应用以及不同的应用商店等领域,现在Nexus平板电脑收益也将归入这一类别。

4)据广告机构M&C Saatchi最近数据显示,平板电脑广告投入的发展速度已经超过智能手机,预计今年假期季期间,平板电脑广告投入将首次超过智能手机。

该公司指出其90%的客户在未来数月针对平板电脑的投入将增长25%。平板电脑广告上的转化率(游戏邦注:这里指用户点击广告或执行其中的一些操作)至少比智能手机上的广告高4倍左右。

ipad-ad-space(from info.actionpaper.net)

ipad-ad-space(from info.actionpaper.net)

但平板电脑发展速度仍然处于初期阶段,据OPA数据显示,2011年美国仅有11%用户拥有平板电脑。不过预计到2013年,这一比例将达到47%。

5)据Techcrunch报道,KGI Securities分析师Ming-Chi Kuo最近根据一份iPad Mini物料清单推测,16GB/Wi-Fi版本的iPad Mini起售价为195美元,而64GB/LTE+Wi-Fi版本的iPad mini设备售价则可能是254.5美元。

iPad mini(from gizmodo.com.au)

iPad mini(from gizmodo.com.au)

而根据9t05Mac报道,16GB、32GB和64GB,仅支持Wi-Fi的iPad mini售价分别为329美元、429美元和529美元,而支持Wi-Fi+LTE的这三个型号的设备售价将分别达459美元、559美元和659美元。由此可算出,iPad Mini最低端设备毛利润为40.73%,而高端设备毛利润将达61.38%(苹果原先发售的iPhone 5入门级设备毛利润为68%,高端设备毛利润为72%)。

如果将KGI Securities与9t05Mac的报道结合起来估计,16GB/Wi-Fi型号的iPad Mini毛利润应该是36.66%,高级设备的毛利润则是50.7%。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)EA’s takeaway from social gaming’s slump

By Eric Caoili

“Consumers won’t pay for crap.”

- Electronic Arts CEO John Riccitiello shares the primary lesson that social game developers should take away from the market’s current decline.

Delivering a keynote at App Conference, Riccitiello admitted that the social game market has been overhyped — notably, EA contributed to that hype several years ago when it acquired UK-based developer Playfish in a deal valued at $300 million. But he argues that social gaming is evolving, not dying.

The CEO believes that the market’s decline isn’t as bad as some are making it out to be. He added that “the companies that are now suffering will have another day,” and many of them have likely learned some lessons about game quality from the challenges the industry’s facing right now, according to All Thing Digital.

Among major developers on Facebook, EA has been one of the hardest hit by decreasing interest in social games. Once claiming the second biggest audience of gamers on Facebook behind Zynga, it now trails behind younger developers like King.com and Wooga.

Its total monthly active user count across all of its games on Facebook is at 36.7 million — EA’s biggest title, The Sims Social, alone had that many players less than a year ago (it even hit 66.2 million before the social network modified how it counts users). Now it has only 10.7 million monthly players. (source:gamasutra

2)Puzzle & Dragons Reaches 2 Million Downloads [Social Games]

by Dr. Serkan Toto

Japan’s most successful platform-free social game Puzzle & Dragons continues to amaze.

Maker GungHo announced that their flagship title has reached 2 million downloads – in Japan only, on iOS and Android only (there is no feature phone version), and without using the Mobage or GREE networks.

Puzzle & Dragons was released in the Japanese App Store in February and on Android in late September. The title hit 1 million downloads in mid-July.

GungHo also uses the press release to point out that the game is currently the No.1 app in Japan’s Google Play top grossing ranking. It has been occupying that position in the App Store for months, first on the iPhone and later on the iPad, too.

Puzzle & Dragons in English is scheduled to go live next month.(source:serkantoto

3)So how many Nexus 7 tablets did Google sell?

By Om Malik

Earlier this morning when I was scanning through Google’s third quarter 2012 earnings, I noticed that revenue in Google’s “Other” category came in at $666 million, versus $385 million in Q3 2011. It was such a substantial jump that I pinged a couple of Wall Street analysts, wondering if they could explain the jump.

Mark Mahaney, who follows Google for Citi Research, in an email said that the jump could be explained by the Nexus 7 sales. Mark thinks Google sold about a million units of their tablet (that is made by Asus) and that accounts for about $200 million in revenue. Ben Schachter of McQuarie Securities agrees and estimates that Nexus 7 sales accounted for probably $150 million to $200 million of the $281 million jump in other revenue.

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Muster estimates that Google sold between 800,000 to a million units, while Doug Anmuth of JP Morgan says Google sold about 700,000 units of Nexus 7 tablets. These numbers aren’t terribly surprising: The low-cost tablet “sets the standard for small slates” according to my collegue Kevin Tofel, who reviewed the device in July.

In 2011, Google had $1.37 billion in “other revenues.” These “other” include money Google rakes in from licensing, enterprise applications, and its various app stores. Now, we’ll have to add Nexus tablet revenues to the mix.(source:gigaom

4)Tipping Point For The Touchscreen: Tablet Ad Spend Will Outweigh Smartphone Spend This Holiday Season, Says M&C Saatchi

Ingrid Lunden

With all eyes on an Apple event next week that many think will reveal a new, smaller iPad, the ad agency M&C Saatchi has come out with some compelling numbers that point to how tablets are overtaking smartphones when it comes to monetizing content. It says that the growth in ad spend on tablets is already outpacing that of smartphones, and by this holiday season tablet spend will, for the first time, be higher than that for smartphone campaigns.

The agency — which claims that it is the world’s biggest buyer of mobile ads, working with brands like Reebok, Sky, BMW, Harper Collins, HSBC, Dior, and Yahoo – says that in the lead-up to holiday shopping, some 90% of its clients are growing tablet spend by 25% in the coming months. They are being driven by data that shows conversion rates (where people either click on an ad or perform some other built-in action) for tablet ads at least four times higher than the same ads delivered on smartphones.

(As a point of comparison, M&C Saatchi says that premium smartphone ad rates have gone up by 20% in the last year, with that 20% rise equating to $0.10 more on CTRs.)

And… it’s worth noting that ad agencies aren’t the only ones noticing a divergence between tablet and smartphone advertising.

The news comes just as Google yesterday noted in its Q3 earnings that its mobile advertising run rate is now at $8 billion, up from $2.5 billion a year ago. The company is making a big push on multiscreen experiences to capitalize on what it also sees as an increase in cross-device usage.

And earlier this week, Mojiva launched the first tablet-only mobile advertising network, in a move to better meed demand from advertisers to target users on those devices specifically.

Device makers are also jumping on the potential of tablets-as-ad-medium — a look at how Amazon is loading ads into the Kindle Fire (pictured) is one idea of the shape of things to come.

M&C Saatchi Mobile CEO James Hilton says that the holiday period is proving to be a catalytic moment for the tip to more spending on tablet ads, but he also predicts that the effect “will continue to increase after the Christmas period.”

Its research into consumer behavior has — carried out between April and October in the U.S. and UK — also confirmed that tablet usage so far is proving to be different from that on smartphones. Because tablets today tend to be more often used in stationary locations than on-the-go, geo-targeting is used by less than 10% of M&C Saatchi’s clients. Conversely, targeting based on city or country location, language, time of day and demographic profiles are significantly more common. When techniques like this are implemented, M&C Saatchi says that conversion can go up to five or six times higher.

Prior to M&C Saatchi’s news, we already knew that engagement on tablets tends to be more sustained than on smartphones. This is down to the basic form factor of the device and how content is being created to cater to that: a bigger screen is simply a more enjoyable way of consuming a lot of long form content such as video, magazines and newspapers.

But tablet growth is still in an early stage. Figures from the OPA note at in 2011, only 11% of consumers in the U.S. owned a tablet. By 2013, that proportion will be at 47%. M&C Saatchi believes that the next phase will see a transformation in what tablet usage (and subsequently advertising) may mean, because of the introduction of smaller devices.

Apple, for example, is expected to release a smaller (and possibly less expensive) device on to the market next week, rising to the challenge from Amazon, Samsung and others that offer a range of tablet sizes and price points to a market that is only just beginning to hit its stride.(source:techcrunch

5)Analyst Puts iPad Mini Build Cost At $195, Pricing Said To Start At $329 For 40% Gross Margin

Darrell Etherington

Apple’s iPad mini announcement is set for early next week, and the big variable still remains price. Now, a couple of new reports that surfaced this weekend shed a little more light on what we might expect with pricing. KGI Securities analysts Ming-Chi Kuo has an early look at the likely bill-of-materials (BOM) for the iPad mini, and 9t05Mac reports on likely U.S. retail pricing, meaning we can take a closer look at how the iPad mini might figure into Apple’s existing lineup when it comes to comparing gross margins.

Kuo’s estimate of the BOM and manufacturing costs of an iPad mini will start at $195 for a 16GB Wi-Fi only version, and range up to $254.50 for the 64GB, LTE + Wi-Fi edition. His estimates are based on educated guesses, existing price and component lists from other Apple devices, and reported suppliers of parts for this new tablet. Separately, 9t05Mac has information indicating price points of $329, $429 and $529 for 16, 32  and 64GB Wi-Fi only models of iPad mini, and $459, $559 and $659 for Wi-Fi + LTE versions in corresponding capacities. That works out to a gross margin of 40.73 percent at the low end, and 61.38 percent for the fully loaded iPad mini.

Margins are Apple’s bread and butter, as I explained in a previous post, and the reason it manages to stay ahead of its gadget-making competition in terms of market cap, profits and cash on hand. The iPhone 5, for instance, carries a gross margin of 68 percent for entry-level devices, and  72 percent for its most expensive model, thanks to a markup of 256.72 percent. But taking these two reports together puts an iPad well within acceptable limits for Apple – the newest iPad has a 36.66 percent gross margin for the 16GB Wi-Fi model, and a 50.70 percent margin for top-end devices.

Unlike Amazon, Apple just wouldn’t market a device on which it was merely breaking even or losing money, since it isn’t driving the bulk of its revenue from its digital content ecosystem (though it does take in a fair amount that way, too). But taking these two new pieces of information together, you can see how Apple would be able to market a new device at a price point considerably under its existing iPad offerings and still enjoy margins well within its existing acceptable range.

Of course, if 9t05Mac’s information is accurate, that would also mean that the iPad mini would be priced well over the cost of entry of competing devices like the Nexus 7 and Amazon Kindle Fire. But as mentioned, shipping hardware as a loss leader just isn’t an arrow in Apple’s quiver, and besides, Apple won’t be framing the discussion around place, but instead will emphasize quality and the reputation of the original iPad line, and I have a feeling those are arguments that a lot of consumers will find convincing.(source:techcrunch


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