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从Mobile Games Forum 2011看手机游戏发展趋势

发布时间:2012-04-16 16:29:29 Tags:,,,

作者:Joost Rietveld

随着智能手机用户数量的迅速增加,应用使用带来的移动数据消费额也突飞猛进。在数十亿美元的消费总额中,手机游戏占据很大一部分。随着手机艺术的发展,行业有预测称社交游戏将逐渐登陆手机平台,Zynga将旗下热门游戏《Farmville》和《Mafia Wars》移植到手机设备上也表明了这点,所以目前手机游戏正处在游戏行业创新的前沿。以下内容Mobile Games Forum 2011所展现出的发展趋势。

iphone-facebook(from touchfacebook)

iphone-facebook(from touchfacebook)

Facebook的手机梦

Facebook拥有数亿活跃用户,其中53%的人会玩游戏,无疑是世界上最大的游戏平台。此外,Facebook拥有逾2亿的月活跃手机用户,这些用户的平均活跃度是“普通”用户的两倍(游戏邦注:这是2011年数据)。因而,查看Facebook对手机游戏的态度就能够知道行业可能的发展趋势。Facebook国际商业开发总监Christian Hernandez在论坛主题演讲上概述了Facebook的3个主要关注点:

1、据Hernandez所述,尽管HTML5不是手机应用开发的“万能丹”,但势必会改变游戏行业。HTML5使开放性开发方法的普及成为可能,这解决了将游戏移植到多种设备上可能产生的问题。

2、Facebook推出的定位服务API Places与Facebook的手机战略一致。通过定位服务,Facebook努力实现用户和广告商间的价值交换。签到用户与好友分享状态便可以享受特别的折扣和优惠。

3、Facebook很重视整合单点登录(游戏邦注:简称SSO)手机SDK。换句话说,Facebook鼓励人们开发利用其社交圈但不一定在Facebook网站上运行的手机应用和游戏。

行业发展广度

从行业发展广度的角度来说,我们可以看到手机游戏将来的发展趋势是:

1、实现平台不定性

2、采用免费增值商业模型

3、学习社交游戏的设计方法,整合定位元素

多平台不定性

将游戏发行到多个平台上有两个原因。其一,当前所有手机平台的盈利似乎都存在瑕疵。Java还不会灭绝,但似乎有点落后。Android有可能会替代Java,但它的盈利模型效果不佳,目前在该平台上盈利过于困难。iOS有最大的盈利潜力,但也是竞争最激烈的平台,行业过于夸大这个平台上的成功故事。

其二,用户逐渐开始使用多个平台。微软尝试通过Windows Phone 7来吸引这部分用户,该公司完成了主机、电脑和手机三者间的绑定,游戏略微修改便可以在3个平台上运行。微软的想法是“相同云端的3个屏幕”,努力通过云服务来解决平台分化带来的同步问题。Facebook通过HTML5开发网页应用的解决方案也是为了实现上述想法,它为非微软设备间的联系提供了机遇。这些方法能够创造出融合“社交”、“手机”和“主机”的数字化行业。

免费增值商业模型

在这个平台盈利模型充满瑕疵的行业中,如何才能够让游戏生存下去呢?在小组讨论中,众人就利益链的问题无法达成一致意见。但是,大家对某个根本问题的看法是一致的,那就是免费增值将是最具潜力的手机游戏商业模型。App Store价格战培养出的用户预期使付费游戏濒临灭绝。就商业模型而言,带有游戏内置盈利技术的免费游戏成为主流设计方式。

游戏内置盈利来源于游戏内置广告或产品推广,以及利用虚拟货币的IAP。当采用后者这种方法时,核心游戏应当提供很有价值的内容,同时包含玩家能够花0.99到100美元甚至更多的钱来购买商品的机制。玩家付费购买后可以提升自己的社交地位或游戏体验。讨论会成员分享的免费增值模型经验展示了这种方法的良好前景,改变盈利模型后游戏的收入平均增加了20%。但是同样应当谨慎对待这样的结果,因为这种模型的大部分盈利来源于“鲸鱼”用户。

游戏设计:基于LBS的社交手机游戏

社交游戏向手机平台过渡,这将成为主要的游戏设计趋势。定位服务为社交游戏增添了新的层次,要么提供更具针对性的体验,要么将现实生活中位于相同地点的人们连接起来,这将是社交游戏设计的下个发展步骤。由于每天都有海量应用涌现,曝光度将成为主要问题,游戏设计和营销都需要考虑到这点。通过将分享机制嵌入游戏机制,游戏设计中采用的社交方法能够增加游戏的曝光几率。此外,通过为游戏提供定位推荐,定位元素也能够增加曝光机率。

案例:MyStar

mystar(from clubic)

mystar(from clubic)

Mobile Pie的游戏《MyStar》似乎符合上述描述中的大部分内容。在《MyStar》中,玩家培养和打造歌星,提升其在世界上的知名度。《MyStar》是款免费游戏,其IAP功能允许玩家付费升级歌星的表现和外观。其游戏设计体现出留存玩家、吸引普通大众、社交化和新鲜感的目标。其中的方式之一便是整合定位元素,通过在真实地点粘贴虚拟海报来提升歌星知名度。对于社交机制的整合,游戏使用了Facebook的社交圈。

总结

2011年Mobile Games Forum上看到的趋势是否能够代表社交游戏今后的发展方向呢?从个人的角度来说,我认为答案是肯定的。这种趋势此前在其他游戏相关盛会上也曾被提及过。《MyStar》的商业表现似乎将成为这种趋势预测是否准确的试金石。

游戏邦注:本文发稿于2011年2月8日,所涉时间、事件和数据均以此为准。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Mobile Games Forum 2011 – Trends in Mobile Gaming

Joost Rietveld

With smart phone adoption reaching critical mass, mobile data consumption through app usage is skyrocketing. Valuated at several billion USD (depending on source and definition), mobile games contribute into large extent to this. With a predicted move of social games going mobile, enabled by the current state of mobile technology, illustrated by Zynga publishing top hits Farmville and MafiaWars onto mobile devices, mobile games are currently at the front line of game related innovation. This was enough reason to attend this year’s Mobile Games Forum held in London 26th and 27th of January. What follows is an overall overview of the trends as seen during the Forum.

Facebook’s Vision on Mobile

With over 500 million active users, of which 53% play games, Facebook arguably is the largest game platform in the world. Facebook’s current craze, Zynga’s social game CityVille has generated over 100 million monthly active users at its peak. Additionally, Facebook has over 200 million monthly active mobile users, users that are on average twice as active compared with ‘normal’ users. It is therefore only right to look at Facebook’s stance on mobile (gaming) to get an idea where this industry is heading. Facebook’s Head of International Business Development Christian Hernandez outlined three focus points for Facebook during his keynote at the Forum:

HTML5, although not seen as the ‘Holy Grail’ for mobile development, will definitely be a game changer according to Hernandez. HTML5 allows for an open development approach, overcoming the burden of having to port one’s game for multiple devices.

Facebook’s recently introduced location-based-service API Places fits perfectly in Facebook’s mobile strategy. Deals are part of the Places service with which Facebook tries to create a value exchange between users and advertisers. Upon check-in users can enjoy special discounts by sharing their status with friends.

Facebook puts great emphasis on its mobile SDK (software development kit) incorporating Single Sign On (SSO). In other words, Facebook encourages development of mobile apps (games included) that use the social graph as a backbone but do not necessarily run on the Facebook website.

An Industry-Wide Perspective

Hernandez’ key areas of focus were echoed during the second day’s panel discussions and keynotes. From an industry-wide perspective, one can identify three trends for mobile gaming:

being capable of platform agnosticism

adopting freemium business models

developing for social game design and incorporating location-based elements

Managers of different echelons and different positions within the value chain seemed to agree that having these traits would increase one’s chances of commercial success within the mobile gaming sphere.

Multiplatform Agnosticism

The need for publishing games on multiple platforms seems to come from two sides. On one side, all current mobile platforms seem to have their flaws in terms of monetization; Java is still relevant and far from dead but a little behind; Android is here to replace Java possibly, however its monetization model is broken as it is too difficult to make money on the platform currently; iOS has the biggest potential but also the largest competition. Success stories about the platform are overstated as success is more the exception than the rule.

On the other side sits a user who is increasingly active across multiple platforms. Microsoft tries to capture this demographic with its Windows Phone 7, completing the triangle of console, desktop/laptop and mobile, running slightly modified games on all three platforms. Microsoft adopts a philosophy of ‘Three screens in the cloud’, a philosophy that attempts to avoid disintegration in favor of obtaining synergies from platform agnosticism. Facebook’s solution of applying browser development through HTML5 concurs with this philosophy as it also breaks open the field for non-Microsoft devices. Such an approach would create a digital industry without the current adjectives of ‘social’, ‘mobile’, ‘console’.

The Freemium Business Model

With such a dispersed user demographic using flawed platforms in terms of monetization, how is one expected to make a decent living from their games? During one of the panels it was hard to find consensus in the value chain. Nevertheless, consensus was found on one fundamental issue: freemium is the most potential business model for mobile games. User expectations fueled by the App Store’s ‘race to the bottom’ (price based competition) makes paid-for-games a species on the verge of extinction. Instead, free games with in-game monetization techniques are becoming the dominant design in terms of business model.

In-game monetization can come from in-game advertisements or product placements and in-app purchases through virtual currencies. When opting for the latter, the core game should offer valuable play including a mechanism through which the player can spend anything from $0.99 to $100 or more. Purchases should offer increased visible social status and/or enhanced game experiences. One of the panelist’s experience with the freemium model was fairly positive as it generated on average a 20% increase in revenue compared with their paid for games. These results have to be treated with caution however as the market for creative goods is often skewed due to ‘whales’ generating the bulk of the revenue.

Game Design: Towards Location-Based Social Mobile Games

Social gaming is heading towards mobile platforms as a dominant game design. Location-based services add an extra layer to the social mix by either offering a more targeted experience or by connecting people that share real life locations, thereby being the next logical step in social game design. With the so-called ‘app clutter’ becoming more dense every day, discovery is a major issue to be incorporated in both game design and marketing. Adopting a social approach to game design will increase the chances for discovery by sharing mechanisms inherent to the game mechanics. Furthermore, location-based elements can increase chances for discovery by offering location-based recommendations for games placing them in a particular context, thereby making them more meaningful.

Case Example: MyStar

One game that seems to fit the above description in large part is Mobile Pie’s MyStar, also presented during this year’s Mobile Games Forum. In MyStar the player guides and shapes a musical star towards world recognition and fame. MyStar is a free game that allows for In-App Purchases enabling the player to upgrade the Star‘s performance and looks. The game has been developed from a rationalized perspective aiming for retention, mass appeal, obtainment, social and freshness. One of the ways to do so is by incorporating location-based elements to promote the player’s Star through virtual posters at real world locations. The game uses Facebook’s social graph for integration of social mechanics. Currently the game is only available in the UK market on the iOS platform.

Conclusion

Were the insights gained from this year’s Mobile Games Forum representative of the actual direction social games is heading? From an informed insider’s perspective I would argue to say – yes. The indicated trends are holistic and have been put out before at other game-related conferences. If anything, MyStar’s commercial performance seems like a good indicator of accuracy. Perhaps for next year’s Forum, Osney Media could invite Mobile Pie once more to give a critical evaluation of the game’s performance placed in the context of this year’s trends? (Source: Stragedy Guide)


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