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每日观察:关注Zynga每付费用户成本约150美元(1.21)

1)Sterne Agee分析师Arvind Bhatia日前表示,他认为Zynga游戏每收获一名新付费用户就要流失150美元的成本。

gold-dollar-sign(from todayifoundout.com)

gold-dollar-sign(from todayifoundout.com)

据Bhatia分析,Zynga在2011年第三季度时新增40万独立用户,而当时该公司的营销成本为1.2亿美元。将1.2亿美元均摊到40万用户身上,就可以发现每名用户获取成本为300美元。如果按该公司所称的每名用户消费150美元的情况来看,Zynga在每名用户身上等于亏损了150美元(游戏邦注:据称每名用户在Zynga游戏中逗留的时间为12至15个月)。

2)据AllTingsDigital报道,Zynga发言人日前确认公司正考虑让Zynga Casino向真正的在线博彩项目转型,并已同一些潜在合作者进行商谈。

chips(from games)

chips(from games)

该发言人表示,《Zynga Poker》是全球用户规模最大的在线扑克游戏,每日用户超过700万,每月用户超过3000万,有些玩家对真正的博彩项目很感兴趣,所以他们正与潜在伙伴商谈开拓市场的计划。

观察者认为,从博彩业巨头Caesars最近收购《Slotmania》开发商Playtika(成交额可能超过9000万美元),International Game Technology斥资5亿美元收购DoubleDown Interactive(代表作是博彩游戏《DoubleDown Casino》)等一系列迹象来看,Facebook社交游戏“玩真钱”的时代即将来临。

3)东京市场调研公司Yano最新报告预测,由于智能手机普及率迅速提升,2012年日本社交游戏市场规模将达44亿美元。

social-game-market-japan(from Yano)

social-game-market-japan(from Yano)

这一数据与摩根斯坦利日前的预测结果较为接近,后者预计2012年日本社交游戏产值将达3394亿日元,2013年达4135亿日元。

size-japanese-social-game-market(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

size-japanese-social-game-market(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

4)Namco Bandai日前向Mobage平台发布卡牌社交游戏《One Piece Grand Collection》,该游戏采用了《海贼王》动漫场景,玩家需选择一名角色展开冒险之旅,战胜boss并一路收集宝藏。

one-piece-collection-mobage(from serkantoto)

one-piece-collection-mobage(from serkantoto)

该游戏可运行于Mobage的智能手机和功能性手机版本。

5)位于旧金山的社交网站Tagged日前公布其2011年财报,指出公司营收增长35%,超过4300万美元;由于收购Hi5,其注册用户增长三倍,已超过3.3亿,活跃用户超过2000万;公司成员增加3倍,连续4年盈利。

Tagged成立了自己的内部游戏工作室,其虚拟货币收益比2010年增长60%,其手机游戏活跃用户增幅超过30%。

6)据techcrunch报道,谷歌最近调整了其帐号注册流程,要求欲注册谷歌帐号的用户必须先创建一个Gmail和Google+帐号。

creat account(from techcrunch)

creat account(from techcrunch)

观察者称,谷歌此举似乎意在通过绑定相关服务,提升Google+用户数量,但明显有违谷歌过去允许用户自主选择服务的贯例。此外,这种做法除了催生大量Google+“僵尸”帐号之外,可能还会令原本就不感兴趣的用户对Google+生厌。

7)在本周MAU增长最快的Facebook新晋游戏榜单(MAU低于100万)上,EA新游戏《Risk:Factions》(最近MAU为34万)居于榜首,Vostu寻物解谜游戏《World Mysteries》(MAU为55万)位居第二,Broken Bulb Studio游戏《Miscrits of Volcano Island》(MAU为86万)排名第三。

Top Gainers This Week(from AppData)

Top Gainers This Week(from AppData)

《Miscrits of Volcano Island》以及排在第五名的《Bingo Bash》若保持目前增长速度,就有望在下周突破100万MAU。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)Zynga losing $150 on every new paying user it attracts, reckons Sterne Agee analyst

by Keith Andrew

Few doubt Zynga’s ability to amass large userbases in a short amount of time: on mobile alone, the studio revealed its library was attracting 13 million daily active users back in December.

The cost of adding to its base with such speed, however, may be sending the social studio spiralling down towards an early demise.

That’s according to Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia, who believes Zynga loses $150 on every new paying user it attracts.

The true cost

Such an assumption naturally doesn’t stem from Zynga itself, but is rather based on Bhatia’s assessment of the outfit’s publicly released figures: Zynga acquired 400,000 additional unique players in its September quarter, when the firm spent $120 million on sales and marketing.

Bhatia claims $120 million divided by 400,000 equals a cost of $300 per user, who – its alleged – spend around $150 each. As such, Zynga is losing $150 on each and every one of them.

It’s a simplistic look at the studio’s situation, but Bhatia’s point is Zynga is too focused on growing its userbase rather than finding a way to operate a stable, profitable business.

“It’s high to begin with, but we know that generally they say that a person is staying with Zynga for about 12 to 15 months,” added Bhatia.

“Our concern is [whether or not it's worth] spending $300 to get these customers when people are spending $150. That math won’t work for very long.”

No mobility

Said figures focus on Zynga’s operation on the web rather than mobile, though Bhatia is no more confident the firm has figured out a way to monetise on iOS or Android, either.

It’s indicative of what Bhatia believes is a general slowdown in social gaming, as the industry realises it’s a sector dominated by fly-by-night hits rather than long term earners.

“FarmVille peaked after eight or nine months, CityVille peaked after three months and then stayed at high levels for a long time,” added Bhatia.

“Not immediately, but down the road this is going to catch up with them – whether it takes three quarter or four quarters is hard to say. But our projection for the next 12 to 15 months is that growth is slowing significantly.”(source:pocketgamer

2)If Zynga has its way, the money won in Zynga Poker could be for keeps

by Joe Osborne

Thanks to recent forward moves in state regulations, you might get to cash in on those millions of chips in Zynga Poker. Zynga has confirmed to All Things Digital (ATD) that the San Francisco-based social game maker is looking at online gambling. In fact, the company is already in talks with potential partners to turn the upcoming Zynga Casino into, well, a real online casino.

“We build games and experiences that our players want and love,” a Zynga spokesperson told ATD. “Zynga Poker is the world’s largest online poker game with more than 7 million people playing every day and over 30 million each month. We know from listening to our players that there’s an interest in the real money gambling market. We’re in active conversations with potential partners to better understand and explore this new opportunity.”

Cashing in on your Zynga Poker chips could be a reality sooner rather than later, as a recent Department of Justice opinion has effectively allowed states to individually permit online gambling and lottery services. However, keep in mind that the U.S. is taking baby steps toward legal online gambling, handling the issue on a state-by-state basis. We’re several months away (if not longer) from gambling in Facebook games. “We don’t have any plans to get into real-money gambling,” a Facebook rep told ATD.

Casino games are already popular on Facebook, even without the prospects of cash in return. Casino chain Caesars recently gobbled up Slotmania creator Playtika, possibly for more than $90, while International Game Technology snagged DoubleDown Casino maker DoubleDown Interactive for a cool $500 million. That said, imagine the profit possibilities for these games if real-money gambling hits the table. Then again, we should also consider the dangers … and they’re downright scary.(source:games

3)Report: Japan’s Social Gaming Market To Grow To US$4.4 Billion In 2012 [Social Games]

by Dr. Serkan Toto

Japan GREE and DeNA are still growing, and with them does Japan’s social gaming industry as a whole: JP Morgan thinks so, as does Morgan Stanley, and now Yano updated their projections for the market.

(Note: there are more Japanese sources with more stats, but I am not able to cover them all on this site.)

As you can see in the chart below, the Tokyo-based market research firm expects Japan’s social gaming industry to balloon to US$4.4 billion in 2012. Yano says that the growth will be fueled mainly by the rapid adoption of smartphones in Japan.

The numbers from Yano for both 2011 and 2012 are very close to what Morgan Stanley is projecting.(source:serkantoto

4)Namco Bandai Launches Social Figure Collection Game One Piece On Mobage [Social Games]

by Dr. Serkan Toto

DeNA partner Namco Bandai launched One Piece Grand Collection, a social game based on the super-popular manga and anime, on Mobage. The company is pitching the title as a social figure collection game, which features various characters from One Piece as virtual figures (see below).

Not too surprisingly, the game is set in the One Piece “universe”, where players need to choose a character to lead through various adventures, fight battles with bosses other Mobage users, and collect treasures along the way.

One Piece Grand Collection is available on Mobage for Japanese feature phones and smartphones.(source:serkantoto

5)Tagged Announces 2011 Results, Remains Profitable for the Fourth Consecutive Year

By Thorsten Bleich

San Francisco-based social network Tagged announced its 2011 fiscal performance. Record business results included revenue growth of 35 percent to over $43 million, tripled registered users to over 330 million with the acquisition of hi5 and doubled active users to over 20 million, tripled staff size and a fourth consecutive profitable year for the company.

Tagged also completed its first four acquisitions to-date, with December’s acquisition of hi5. The company founded its own internal game studio, its virtual currency revenue up 60 percent from 2010. With a new suite of mobile offerings mobile usage grew to over 30 percent of its daily active users, according to the company.

Tagged was founded in 2004 and focuses on social discovery and meeting new people rather than managing existing relationships.(source:socialgamesobserver

6)New Google Accounts Require Gmail And G+ Account Creation

Devin Coldewey

Google appears to have made some changes to its account creation process. Whereas before, all it took was an email address of any kind and some basic demographic data, now you are required to create both a Gmail account and a presence on Google+. This doesn’t strike me as a user-friendly change.

On one hand, it’s harmless in a way: you create a throwaway email address and a dummy G+ account if you don’t want to use them. Problem solved. But is that really a step people should have to take if they just want to use Google Docs or YouTube? Certainly Google will say that this is all about the integration of services, but part of the attraction of Google services has always been how you can just use one or the other. This forced-signup device smells of an attempt to boost G+ numbers, and is reminiscent not of the Google of yore, but of the Apple and Facebook of today.

Some services haven’t yet updated their account creation pages, and at the moment you can use this URL to go straight to the old account creation screen. It seems doubtful that this loophole will remain open for long.

Not only will this lead to the creation of many derelict G+ and Gmail accounts, but people who are not interested in G+ and have not cared to educate themselves on it may be bothered by the notifications, circlings, and other features they didn’t ask for. I know that G+ is the new glue holding Google’s services together, but it’s a little early to be forcing it down people’s throats, don’t you think?(source:techcrunch

7)Risk: Factions conquers this week’s list of emerging Facebook games

AJ Glasser

EA’s Risk: Factions takes the top spot on this week’s list of emerging Facebook games with Vostu’s hidden object game World Mysteries and Broken Bulb Studio’s Miscrits of Volcano Island rounding out the top three.

Miscrits and Bingo Bash are on track to graduate from this list sometime next week if they maintain their current growth rates and break the arbitrary 1 million monthly active user mark.(source:insidesocialgames


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