作者：Nicholas Lovell

在免费游戏领域，收入不会遵循常规分布模式，而是呈幂律曲线走势。

money from gamesbrief.com

我应该采用什么ARPPU（游戏邦注：即每付费用户平均收益）标准？

在GAMESbrief在线游数据表格中，我粗略绘制游戏的幂律曲线，将用户分成3类：小鱼、海豚和鲸鱼。真正的鲸鱼用户会在游戏中投入众多资金。据Social Gold预测，高消费用户的寿命价值超过1000美元，有些用户会在一款游戏中投入2万多美元。此外，Flurry表示，在美国iOS或Android平台，iOS或Android平台每笔IAP交易额平均为14美元，有51%的虚拟交易营收来自价值20美元以上的IAP交易。我建议你采用如下区分法来估算曲线走势：

* 鲸鱼：10%的玩家，ARPPU是20美元

* 海豚：40%的玩家，ARPPU是5美元

* 小鱼：50%的玩家，ARPPU是1美元

这取决于你的游戏，不仅和所搭载的平台或选择的题材有关，还涉及你的设计方式。就那些ARPPU达20美元的鲸鱼用户来说，其中有些用户的消费就要超过100美元。这是否具有可能性？游戏需能有效促使海豚用户每月在游戏中投入些许资金。你是否有这样的游戏？你的小鱼用户需由免费玩家转变成买家。什么促使他们进行此转变？不同类型的IAP会创造不同水平的营收。例如，Zynga成员Roger Dickey指出，能量机制的ARPU（游戏邦注：这是每用户平均收入，和ARPPU不同）约是0.03美元，装饰元素0.02美元，竞争玩法0.05美元。换而言之，这种方法不只是预测工具，还是个设计工具。若你的设计团队不清楚业务背后的金融模式，他们就无法基于此设计游戏。

基准

由于很少开发者会划分鲸鱼、海豚和小鱼用户，因此我在ARPPU表单中融入衍生数据。在完善电子表格的过程中，你也许可参照下列数据校准自己估算的ARPPU。

chart from gamesbrief.com

iOS

* ngMoco：1.5美元（据悉，ngMoco的DAU每日收益是0.03美元，有2% DAU每天都会在游戏中消费。我觉得这相当于每月1.5美元ARPPU）

* 《Funpark Friends》，标价：6.5英磅

其他手机平台

* 《Street Wars》，MocoSpace：13美元（Social Times）

浏览器平台

* Bigpoint：10美元（Bigpoint称其ARPPU相当于《魔兽世界》水平）

* 《海盗时代》，Three Rings：50美元（数据来源：Gamasutra）

* 《哈宝旅馆》：30美元（数据来源：Engage Digital）

Facebook

* EA Social Sports：56美元（这是终身价值，此信息由AllThingsD提供）

* Playdom：20美元（数据来源：光速创投）

客户端

* 《Shaiya》，Aeria Games：100美元（数据来源：DGTaipei）

* 《精灵乐章》，Aeria Games：90美元（数据来源：DGTaipei）

* 《Outspark》：55美元（数据来源：Game Newswire）

* 《Changyou》：32美元（数据来源：Engage Digital）

* 《Playspan》：24美元（数据来源：Engage Digital）

* 《战地英雄》，Easy Studios：22美元（数据来源：Ben Cousins）

* 《巨人》：15美元（数据来源：Boing Boing）

只读DVD

* 《APB》，Realtime Worlds：28美元（数据来源：Videogamer）

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

ARPPU in freemium games

By Nicholas Lovell

Averages are dangerous things. Most people hear “average” and assume a normal of Gaussian distribution. This can blind you to the reality of the situation. To take a practical example, imagine 20 people you know and imagine lining them all up in a row. Their height is likely to average out at around 5’7, depending on the male/female split. Now add Bill Gates to the line. His presence is not going to change that average very much.

Now rearrange those friends according to their net worth. Add Bill Gates back in, and his immense worth will create a massive distorting effect to the average. So much so that unless you have 20 very rich friends, the average (by which I mean the mean) will be essentially meaningless. Most media people think in terms of normal distributions. If the price of a game “averages” £15 over its lifetime, total revenue = number of units sold x average price. The entire industry therefore fixates on number of units sold.

In the free-to-play world, revenues don’t follow a normal distribution. They follow a power-law curve. (Or, to put it another way, the handful of whales – people who distort the spending average in the way that Bill Gates distorts the wealth average – are critically important.) My post on Whales, dolphins and minnows – the beating heart of a free-to-play game covers this concept in more detail. You may also want to read Whales, true fans and the ethics of free-to-play.

What ARPPU should I use?

In the GAMESbrief online game spreadsheet, I’ve approximated the power-law by splitting the users into three categories: minnows, dolphins and whales. Real whales can spend an enormous amount of money. Social Gold reckons the highest group of spenders have a lifetime value (i.e the amount they spend over the time they play your game) of over $1,000, with some spending over $20,000 on a single game. Flurry, meanwhile, says that on iOS and Android in the US, the average transaction value for an iOS or Android in-app urchase is $14 and 51% of revenue generated from in-app purchases comes from transactions of over $20. I recommend that you use the following splits to approximate the curve:

* Whales: 10% of payers, ARPPU of $20

* Dolphins: 40% of payers, ARPPU of $5

* Minnows: 50% of payers, ARPPU of $1

These are dependent on your game. Not just which platform or genre, but how you design. For your whales to reach an ARPPU of $20, some of them must be spending over $100 in your game. Is this possible? Your dolphins need to have a good reason to keep spending a little bit of money each month. Have you created one? Your minnows need to be converted from freeloaders to buyers. What will make them make the jump? Different types of IAPs generate different levels of revenue. For example, Roger Dickey of Zynga estimates an ARPU (note: not ARPPU) of $0.03 for energy mechanics, $0.02 for decorative factors, and $0.05 for competitive gameplay. In other words, this spreadsheet is not just a forecasting tool. It is a design tool. If your design team don’t understand the financial model behind your business, they won’t be able to design a game that will deliver against it.

Benchmarks

Because few people break out the split between whales, dolphins and minnows (not least because it is an arbitrary approximation to a continuous power-law curve), I have included a derived stat in the spreadsheet of overall ARPPU. As you refine your spreadsheet, you may want to sanity check this derived ARPPU against the stats below.

iOS

* ngMoco: $1.50 (ngMoco estimates it makes $0.03 per DAU per day, and 2% of DAUs spend each day. I estimate this equates to $1.50 ARPPU per month)

* Funpark Friends, Tag: £6.50 (Source: Pocketgamer 1/12/11)

Other Mobile

* X-City, Papaya: $9.17 (Inside Mobile Apps)

* Cafe Fever, Papaya: $3.57 (Inside Mobile Apps)

* Treasure Fever, Papaya: $10.33 (Inside Mobile Apps)

* Street Wars, MocoSpace: $13 (Social Times)

Browser-based

* Bigpoint: [$10] (Bigpoint says its ARPPU is equivalent to that of World of Warcraft)

* Puzzle Pirates, Three Rings: $50 (Gamasutra)

* Habbo Hotel: $30 (Engage Digital)

Facebook

* EA Social Sports: $56 (Lifetime: AllThingsD)

* Playdom: $20 (Lightspeed Venture Partners)

Client-based

* Shaiya, Aeria Games: $100 (DGTaipei)

* Grand Fantasia, Aeria Games: $90 (DGTaipei)

* Outspark: $55 (Game Newswire)

* Changyou: $32 (Engage Digital)

* Playspan: $24 (Engage Digital)

* BattleField Heroes, Easy: $22 (Ben Cousins)

* Giant: $15 (Boing Boing)

DVD-ROM

* APB, Realtime Worlds: $28 (Videogamer)（Source：gamesbrief）