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每日观察:关注日本社交游戏市场发展潜力(1.20)

发布时间:2012-01-20 12:39:02 Tags:,,,

1)三菱日联摩根士丹利证券最近数据显示,2010年日本社交游戏市场规模为1064亿日元,估算2011年为2385亿日元,预测2012年将达3394亿日元,2013年为4135亿日元。

size-japanese-social-game-market(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

size-japanese-social-game-market(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

除此之外,2010年每月ARPPU数值为2365日元,估算2011年为3775日元,预测2012年为4635日元,2013年为5510日元;2010年付费用户为375万,2011年或达527万,2012年将达610万,2013年达626万。

arpu-japan-social-games(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

arpu-japan-social-games(from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley)

2010年付费比率为10%,2011年或达13%,2012年将达15%,2013年将达17%;

2010年活跃用户为750万,2011年或达810万,2012年将达875万,2013年将达920万;

2010年独立用户为2500万,2011年或达3000万,2012年将达3500万,2013年将达4000万。

2)谷歌首席执行官Larry Page在第四季度财报会议上宣布,Google+目前已有9000万全球用户,比三个月前宣布的数据翻倍增长。

Google-Plus-Logo(from searchengineland.com)

Google-Plus-Logo(from searchengineland.com)

有60%的Google+用户每日都登陆该网站,80%每周都会访问Google+。这意味着Google+现有5400万日活跃用户。

谷歌目前已掌握65%的网络搜索流量,3.5亿Gmail用户,2.5亿Android用户,以及世界第二大桌面浏览器。

3)Facebook近日宣布推出Actions和Timeline Apps,支持60多家内容供应商向用户Timelines页面提供新的分享内容。

apps(from games)

apps(from games)

Actions支持绑定Facebook功能的应用和游戏向Timeline实时发布用户与之互动的信息,例如,用户在Facehook“赞”了一下eBay,并拍下该网站的一项商品,这条信息就会自动发布到用户Facebook主页的Timeline和News Ticker栏目;玩家在体验《Words With Friends》时,Facebook会自动将游戏得分发布到Timeline中。

当然,用户可以通过应用设置菜单自主选择是否采用这项服务,观察者认为Facebook的这项举措或许有助于提升游戏的病毒传播效能。

4)Twitter跟踪服务Twopcharts近日发贴预测Twitter用户帐号将于下个月突破5亿大关。

twitter-new-logo(from mediafunnel)

twitter-new-logo(from mediafunnel)

Twitter于2011年2月突破2亿个帐号,5月18日达3亿个帐号,这意味着Twitter在90天内的增幅达到50%,成为当时世界第二大社交网络。

Twitter历时162天,于10月28日帐号突破4亿,如果要在2月份实现5亿个帐号的目标,就需要在95-124天内新增1亿用户。

但需要注意的是,这种计算方法并没有排除一些已被Twitter或用户关闭的帐号。Twochart统计,约有12%的Twitter帐号已经被关闭,这意味着Twitter帐号达到5亿时,也仅有4.4亿属于有效帐号。

Twopchart还指出,大量的Twitter新帐号仅有少量粉丝,最多仅有20%-25%的新用户会转变为活跃用户,仅有10%帐号会经常发贴。

5)据社交游戏平台Viximo和Superdata Research最新报告显示,Facebook游戏将占据世界多数社交游戏市场份额,同时预测未来三年西方市场的非Facebook平台将占据四分之一的世界社交游戏收益,并公布了几个非Facebook社交平台的相关信息,以下是德国社交平台VZ Networks的有关资料:

VZ-Networks(from SocialGamesObserver)

VZ-Networks(from SocialGamesObserver)

名称:VZ Network(游戏邦注:由StudiVZ、MeinVZ和SchülerVZ组成)

国家:德国

成立时间:2005年

总经理:Stefanie Waehlert

属性:社交网络

员工:300以上

办公地点:德国柏林

会员制度:StudiVZ和MeinVZ是开放平台,但SchuelerVZ仅面向中学生用户

支持语言:德语/英语

年龄限制:SchuelerVZ仅限中学生用户

用户规模:1600万注册用户

游戏数量:StudiVZ & MeinVZ有140款游戏,SchuelerVZ为99款游戏

虚拟货币:无

前5名热门游戏:StudiVZ & MeinVZ平台的热门游戏分别是智明星通《Frohe Ernte》、《Frohe Ernte 2》和《Frohe Ernte 3》,热酷/奇乐互动的《Mein Fisch》、Socialgamenet游戏《Dorfleben》;SchuelerVZ热门游戏分别是《Frohe Ernte》(智明星通)、《Pet Party》和《Icy Tower》(Plinga)、《Mein Fisch》(热酷/奇乐互动)、《Frohe Ernte 2》(智明星通)。

是否开放平台:是

开发者分成:70%

支付系统:游戏开发商需绑定支付系统

其他信息:StudiVZ与MeinVZ共享用户,前者支持德语,是世界前三个首先针对大学生用户的社交网站之一,后者除了德语还支持英语,同时面向非学生用户开放服务。SchuelerVZ拥有单独的用户群体。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)Morgan Stanley’s View On The Future Of Japan’s Social Gaming Market [Social Games]

by Dr. Serkan Toto

How does Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley think about the future of Japan’s social gaming industry? I posted some data from JP Morgan back in June, and here’s some recent projections and interesting industry stats from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

First, some estimates on the size of the Japanese social gaming market – the graphic should speak for itself (translation for this and the next chart added by me)(source:serkantoto

2)[UPDATED] Google+ Has 54 Million Daily Active Users, 90 Million Total

By Jon Mitchell

Google just announced its Q4 earnings, and CEO Larry Page is “super excited.” Revenue for the full year was up 29%. The quarter missed Wall Street’s expectations, but Page has no reservations. It was a big quarter for Google+, and Page says that’s a key to the company’s strategy. “By building a meaningful relationship with our users through Google+,” he says, “we will create amazing experiences across our services.”

Page says Google+ “now has 90 million users globally,” which is more than double what he announced three months ago. This quarter, Google integrated Google+ into search, so now it’s a part of life for anyone who uses Google (unless they opt out). Page says that 60% of Google+ users “engage daily,” and 80% are active weekly. That either means Google+ has 54 million daily active users, or, as Forbes points out, it might be sleight of hand, saying only that 54 Google+ users use Google services daily. But since Google+ is built into most of Google now, including search, that distinction is pretty moot.

One of Page’s priorities as CEO is to increase “velocity of execution,” and he touts Google+ as an example of that strategy paying off. Page says Google+ has shipped “a new feature every day since we launched in June.” That’s more than 200 updates in total. “Understanding who people are, what they care about, and the other people who matter to them is crucial if we’re going to give users what they need when they need it,” Page says.

Page says Google is trying to “double down on the really big bets we have made.” It closed many existing products last year to make space for Google+, Android, Gmail and Chrome, the projects Page focused on in today’s earnings announcement. With 65% of Web searches, 90 million Google+ users, 350 million Gmail users, 250 million Android devices and the #2 desktop browser in the world, Google has an abundance of opportunities to display its ads. What Page didn’t say in the earnings call is that the returns on those ads are in decline. Google’s average revenue per click declined by 8%, and with all these fancy new features Google is building, its costs for gaining new traffic rose by 18%.(source:readwriteweb

3)Add CommentTweetFacebook Actions help Words With Friends, CastleVille et al go viral

by Joe Osborne

So, does this mean that blasting your friends with cow adoption notices is finally back? Not quite. Facebook announced Actions and Timeline Apps on Wednesday, a new initiative with the help of 60 plus content partners to bring new shared content to users’ Timelines, the brand new Facebook profiles. Of course, game developers like Zynga and Wooga were in on the deal, bringing in CastleVille, Words With Friends, Diamond Dash and Bubble Island, respectively.

That’s because Actions allows Facebook-connected apps and games to post information about your interactions within those apps or services to your Timeline in real time. And social game makers want to be all over your Facebook presence as much as possible. (Remember the social game virality crisis of 2010?)

For instance, if you were to “Like” eBay on Facebook, and then were to bid on an item through the website, that information would be automatically posted to your Timeline and the News Ticker on the Facebook home page. Now, this function is already integrated into most Facebook games, but solely through the Ticker. Now, say you were to play a mean triple word score in Words With Friends on Facebook. Facebook would automatically post that score to your Timeline in a short blurb.

That is, of course, assuming you allow it do that. Facebook offers users full control over how apps and games interact with the Timeline and Ticker from the App Settings menu. Game makers seem to hope that this will help restore some virality (i.e. natural, social spread) to their games, but that all depends on how often players visit friends’ Timelines, no?(source:games

4)When Does 500 Million Equal A Lot Less Than 500 Million? When Twitter Hits Its Next Milestone

By Dave Copeland

Much is being made out of projections by Twitter tracking service Twopcharts’s projections that Twitter will activate its 500 millionth account next month, but a closer look at the microblogging service’s growth shows anything but a steady rise.

Twitter passed the 200 million mark last February and then, on May 18, it reached 300 million accounts. That’s 50 percent growth in roughly 90 days and the milestone gave Twitter stock as one of the Big Two (at the time) social networks.

But something happened on the way to 400 million accounts. It would be 162 days before Twitter reached the 400 million account mark on Oct. 28. Depending on what day in February Twitter reaches 500 million users, it will have taken the company 95 to 124 days to add 100 million users: better than the climb from 300 million to 400 million, but still not as fast as growth 200 million to 300 million.

Milestones like this tend to be arbitrary, but they’re especially so in Twitter’s case. The company only counts accounts that have been opened and does not factor in accounts that have been closed by Twitter or the user. By Twopchart’s estimates, about 12% of all Twitter accounts ever opened have been closed, meaning that by the time the 500 million number is reached, there may only be about 440 million existing Twitter accounts.

Facebook is expected to surpass a billion users in August, which is all the more staggering because of the company’s strict policy requiring people to register under their real names.

Twitter, on the other hand, lets users open multiple accounts, and even spoof accounts or accounts for services.

There are other layers of complexity in figuring out Twitter’s reach: by its own estimates, the service has 100 million “active” users, but it’s safe to say the majority of accounts are inactive or rarely used. Twopchart has an interesting blog post full of data, including an analysis of what has happened to the 400 millionth account.

@AdenMo has tweeted just once since becoming the account number 400 million, has just three followers and is only following one account. That’s a fairly typical account, based on Twostory’s analysis and their estimate that only about 20% to 25% of new Twitter accounts convert into active Twitter accounts.

“The vast majority of new accounts only has a limited amount of followers and following, and based on the amount of tweets sent, and the submission date of last tweets, probably only a maximum of 20%-25% convert to active new twitter users, with only about 10% accounts that actively send tweets,” Twopchart said in the blog post.(source:readwriteweb

5)Social Networks in Focus: VZ Networks

By Sebastian Sujka

Facebook currently represents only about a third of worldwide traffic for social networks, according to a recent white paper released by social games and apps platform Viximo and Superdata Research. The non-Facebook category of social gaming will represent the bulk of worldwide revenue generated in the social gaming market, the study states.

Further, the study found that non-Facebook platforms in Western markets will be responsible for nearly one-quarter of worldwide social gaming revenue within the next three years and that the majority of social gaming revenue is made on other platforms, beyond the borders of North America, where Facebook is the clear market leader.

These recent findings as well as strongly increasing user acquisition costs on Facebook are reason enough for us to examine international social networks that might offer opportunities to social game developers. In the first part of our weekly series we present the key facts on the German VZ Networks, which consist of StudiVZ, MeinVZ and SchülerVZ.

•Name: VZ Network (comprised of  StudiVZ, MeinVZ and SchülerVZ)

•Country: Germany

•Founded in: 2005

•Managing Director: Stefanie Waehlert

•Specifics: social networking

•Employees: 300+

•Office in: Berlin, Germany

•Membership: Open for StudiVZ and MeinVZ.  SchuelerVZ is limited to secondary school students

•Languages available: German / English

•Age restrictions: SchuelerVZ is limited to secondary school students

•Audience: 16 million registered users

•Number games live: StudiVZ & MeinVZ:  140  / SchuelerVZ: 99

•Own virtual currency: No

•Top5 Games: StudiVZ & MeinVZ: Frohe Ernte, Frohe Ernte 2, Frohe Ernte 3 (all ELEX), Mein Fisch (HappsSNS/Rekoo), Dorfleben (Socialgamenet)  / SchuelerVZ: Frohe Ernte  (ELEX), Pet Party (Plinga), Icy Tower (Plinga), Mein Fisch  (HappsSNS/Rekoo) , Frohe Ernte 2 (ELEX)

•Open/closed for developers: Open

•Revenue share for developer: 70%

•Payment systems: game developer must integrate payment methods

•Additional notes: StudiVZ and MeinVZ share a user base.  StudiVZ is in German and was the first of the three networks which was originally designed for university students, MeinVZ is also available in English and has been added for non-students.  SchuelerVZ has an entirely separate user base.(source:socialgamesobserver


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