作者：Ben Savage

无论是Zynga、Facebook、微软、谷歌、苹果，还是刚成立的初创企业，它们在2012年都无法回避一场关于HTML5的技术大战。以下是我们对HTML5在2012年发展形势的14项大胆预测：

HTML5-Flash(from flash-to-html5.net)

1.进入更具交互性的网络时代

HTML5将在2012年添加一些功能十分强大的API，强化各网站之间的连接。

例如，Zynga的Facebook游戏都是在iframes中运行，如果调用新的postMessage API就可以在Facebook框架内部直接沟通。在HTML5诞生之前，交互窗口通信需依赖远程服务器或者使用不稳定的破解方法才能执行。

另一项技术就是CORS（Cross Origin Resource Sharing，跨域资源共享），它更容易让不同网页之间共享信息。例如，CORS将支持初创企业提供可编辑的照片服务，让用户在无需使用破解方法的情况下从Facebook下载照片，重新编辑之后再次上传照片。

基于HTML5的语义信息（游戏邦注：例如Semantics和Microdata）将进一步简化创建提取网页信息的网络工具。我们将看到更多新式混搭服务，以及更优良的浏览器模式（例如阅读器和翻译器）。

2.网页浏览器体验向iPhone看齐

在2012年，许多浏览器将植入信息推送服务、地理定位和离线运行应用等功能。一些浏览器的用户界面将进一步向iOS看齐。

3.出现更多种基于HTML5的应用

现在已经出现了关于电子邮件、日历和照片分享的网页应用，但在2012年还将出现更多种HTML5应用类型。例如，Inkscape和Illstrator等创造内容的HTML5版应用。

4.IE和微软将优化浏览器服务

IE将摆脱“一无是处的浏览器”这种骂名，变身为“最快速的浏览器”。微软已大力投入资源提升IE 10的HTML5运行表现，将凭借硬件加速canvas在速度上超越其他浏览器。微软还添加了让HTML5页面和桌面电脑功能相整合，从而提升其操作系统运行性能的新方法。相信IE的支持将极大激发开发者创建HTML5应用的热情。

5.浏览器产商推出应用商店业务

苹果App Store的巨大成功让众多浏览器产商意识到自己在应用商店业务上已经错失先机，谷歌Chrome已经在其页面绑定应用商店功能，相信其他浏览器也将相继采取行动。这对HTML5应用开发商来说确实是个好消息，它意味着他们将有更多应用发布渠道，尽管特定平台的支付系统和营收分成仍然是一个棘手问题。

6.主流视频游戏将发布基于WebGL技术的新版本

在2012年，至少有一家AAA级视频游戏公司将率先使用WebGL技术推出网页版3D游戏。这有可能是一款知名的视频游戏（例如《军团要塞2》或《刺客信条》），或者MMO游戏（如《EVE Online》或《魔兽世界》），当然也有可能是一款全新的游戏。

7.更多应用程序支持离线缓存和离线运行功能

离线缓存技术将极大提升HTML5应用的可用性及运行速度。查询本地数据库可让应用程序免除在服务器之间的往返，使基于网页的应用运行更为流畅，更接近原生应用的性能。

但这也有可能引发一些问题，例如你偶尔会因为清除缓存而丢失文件，或者给那些恶意软件入侵私人文件创造了可趁之机。

8.HTML5广告将更为普遍并赶超Flash广告

运行于iOS设备的网站运营者对HTML5广告的需求量将大为增长。将有一些初创企业介入这一市场，解决沙盒、安全和编程工具等问题。现在HTML5广告已经能够发挥Flash广告的作用，超越后者也只是一个时间早晚的问题。

9.JavaScript将提供更优化的内存管理和数据类型

JavaScript已经是世界最快速的脚本语言之一，但仍然存在改进空间。谷歌Chrome已经能提供更出色的内存管理和垃圾收集算法，再加上更优秀的数据类型管理，JavaScript将成为性能与Java更为接近的成熟语言。

10.更多浏览器应用Canvas硬件加速技术（但不包括主流手机浏览器）

其他浏览器产商也将追随IE的步伐，在自己的产品中引入硬件加速技术，否则就可能被甩在后头。火狐浏览器在这一点上已经面临风险，如果Mozilla再不给浏览器canvas加速，就可能会步IE后尘——被缓慢、肿胀和遗留代码所拖累。

但主流手机浏览器仍无望在2012年引进canvas硬件加速技术，也许要到2013年才会出现这种发展势头。

11.移动设备上的HTML5游戏仍有市场，但游戏内容较为简单

我们可以预见，2012年将有更多人在手机上玩纯粹基于HTML5的《Zynga Poker》、《Words With Friends》等游戏，这些游戏可同时运行于网站和原生应用。

但在移动设备获得成功的HTML5游戏可能会局限于基于菜单的游戏、纸牌游戏、桌面游戏、回合制多人游戏、虚拟形象定制游戏这几种类型。而更复杂精致的游戏，例如Zynga旗下的Ville系列游戏可能无法在2012年实现HTML5技术上的飞跃。

12.Facebook将推出更优化的HTML5 API（支持与外部网站的深度兼容）

Facebook Connect将扩大采用HTML5功能范围，这意味着Facebook Connect将可深度绑定外部网站和服务。

13.Facebook将进一步与用户电脑整合

例如，任意拖放、文件系统访问、照片同步以及桌面小工具等电脑桌面的功能都开始与网页上的内容同步，将用户的社交图谱与传统的桌面电脑体验更为无缝地整合在一起。

14.苹果不会为手机浏览器Safari提供HTML5声音支持

在iOS 3时代，HTML5声音功能与手机浏览器相处融洽，但苹果在推出iOS 4和iOS 5时禁用了多数API，因为这可能会危及iTune（包括音乐商店和App Store）的运营。苹果在2012年依然不会放松对其生态系统的控制，他们仍不会提供HTML5声音的API。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

The Definitive Guide To HTML5: 14 Predictions For 2012

Ben Savage

Editor’s note: Guest contributor Ben Savage is the founder of Spaceport.io, a native Javascript and HTML5 platform for mobile game developers.

From tech titans like Zynga, Facebook, Microsoft, Google and Apple, to startups just launching, the battle lines of 2012 will be drawn across the landscape of HTML5. Below are 14 bold predictions for how HTML5 will evolve in 2012.

Welcome to a more interconnected web:

In 2012, HTML5 will be adding support for some really useful and cool APIs that allow one
website to connect to another.

For example, Zynga games on Facebook run inside of iframes. Using the new postMessage API these games will be able to communicate within the containing Facebook frame directly. Before HTML5, inter-window communication had to rely on a remote server – or use unreliable hacks.

Another exciting addition is CORS (Cross Origin Resource Sharing). This will make it much easier for different websites to share information with one another. For example, CORS will enable startups to create photo-editing services that download your photos from Facebook, let you modify them, and then re-upload them – again without having to resort to ugly hacks.

With all of the new semantic information (see Semantics and Microdata) available with HTML5, it will become much easier to create web tools that extract information from web pages. As a result, you can expect to see a plethora of new mashup services, as well as better browser modes (like readers and translators).

Web browsers will look more like iPhones

Everyone loves Apple’s iOS. Now it’s coming to the HTML5 web. In 2012 your browsers will start sporting push notifications, geolocation, and offline capable applications. Some browsers will likely adopt a more iOS-like user interface that will make the comparison all the more apt.

More and more applications will just be built in HTML5 instead of downloadable apps

If you’re like me, you already use web apps for email, calendars, and photo-sharing, but in 2012 more classes of applications will be HTML5 enabled. Next up, you can expect to see content creation apps like Inkscape and Illustrator emerge for HTML5 and start to catch on.

Internet Explorer & Microsoft will dramatically improve in coolness.

Internet explorer’s reputation will stop being “the browser where nothing works right” and start being “the fast browser”. Microsoft has made major investments into improving HTML5 performance that will give IE 10 a huge performance lead over competing browsers. Its hardware accelerated “canvas” will blow away all the other browsers in any speed test. Microsoft is also adding interesting ways for the HTML5 web and the desktop to work together that will really spice up its operating system. Having good support from IE will be the impetus that will really turn the tide in favor of authoring HTML5 applications.

Browser manufacturers will get into the App Store business

Taking a cue from Apple, browser manufacturers will start to realize that they are missing out by not being in the app store business. Google Chrome already has an integrated app-store as its splash page. Expect many other browsers to follow. This is actually a good thing for HTML5 application developers – it means more distribution opportunities for apps, although platform specific payment systems and platform revenue-shares will follow later on.

At least one major console game released or re-released using WebGL

In 2012, at least one AAA console game company is going to make the leap and decide to launch a 3D title on the web using WebGL instead of (or in addition to) creating a downloadable client. It might be a re-release of a well-known title (Like “Team Fortress 2″ or “Assassins Creed”), or another way to play a popular MMO (like “Eve Online” or “World of Warcraft”), or it may be an entirely new title launching for the first time.

Many more applications will use offline cache and will work offline

The offline application cache will dramatically improve the usability and speed of HTML5 apps. Querying a local database will allow applications to avoid a round-trip to the server, eliminating that laggy web-app feel that makes us all prefer native apps today.

In 2012, expect to see a few issues arise from this extended usage. You’ll lose your work by clearing your cache at least once or twice. Also expect security vulnerabilities to keep showing up that allow malicious applications to access private files stored on your computer by another
website.

HTML5 ads will become prevalent and overtake Flash ads

Website owners keen to monetize the increasingly large amount of traffic coming from iOS devices will demand HTML5 ads (rather than Flash ads). Startups will emerge to serve this market. These startups will solve the sand boxing, security, and authoring tools issues that this new market will face. Now that HTML5 is capable of doing everything that flash ads commonly do, it’s just a matter of time before they take over.

JavaScript will get a lot faster with better memory management and typed arrays

JavaScript has gotten really, really fast – it’s already among the world’s fastest scripting languages – but there is room for improvement. Google Chrome has started pushing the envelope on better memory management and garbage collection algorithms. This, combined with typed arrays, will bring JavaScript performance closer to more mature languages like Java.

Canvas will get hardware acceleration in more browsers (but no major mobile browsers)

Other browser makers will follow Internet Explorer’s lead and add hardware acceleration to their canvas implementations. Those that don’t will suffer a severe loss in mind-share. Firefox is most at-risk in this regard. If Mozilla fails to accelerate their canvas it risks being portrayed as the new IE — slow and bloated and burdened down with legacy code.

However, in 2012, no major mobile browsers will successfully roll out a hardware-accelerated canvas. We will have to wait until 2013 to start seeing that catch on.

People will play popular HTML5 games on their mobile devices from Zynga and others, but they will be very simple games

You can expect to see your friends playing games like Zynga Poker, Words with Friends, and Mafia Wars on their mobile phones, running purely in HTML5. These games will be played on both destination websites and within native applications (like the Facebook app).

However, successful HTML5 games on mobile devices will be limited to menu-based games, card games, board games, turn-based multiplayer games, and avatar customizer games. More complex and visually intensive Zynga “Ville” style games with isometric worlds or hundreds of animating sprites will not yet strike gold in 2012.

Facebook will release improved HTML5-based APIs that allow for more seamless integration with external websites

In its continued quest to be the de facto social-graph of the web, Facebook Connect will grow and expand to take advantage of new HTML5 features. This will allow even deeper and richer integration of Facebook connect with external websites and services.

Facebook will get a lot more seamlessly integrated with your desktop

Think drag-and-drop, file system access, photo synching, and widgets on your desktop. All of these features (and more) will start to blur the line between desktop and browser, bringing your social graph more closely into contact with your traditional desktop experience.

Apple will NOT fix HTML5 sound in mobile Safari

HTML5 sound used to work well in mobile Safari, back in the days iOS3. However, Apple disabled most of the API in iOS 4 and 5. It just introduces competition for iTunes — both the music store, and the App Store. In its continued fight to maintain total control over the Apple ecosystem, they will refrain from fixing HTML5 sound in 2012.（source:techcrunch）