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导致Zynga首次公开募股表现不佳的3个原因

作者:Chris Morris

近日Zynga在华尔街股市开盘表现极为强势,但交易开始数分钟后,股票走势不容乐观。

截止收盘时,股价下滑5%至9.5美元(游戏邦注:当天最低点为9美元左右),与LinkedIn和Groupon等其他热门互联网行业股票今年的趋势相反。而事实上,Zynga盈利颇丰,但那些公司并没有盈利。

造成这一现象的原因很多,让我们一一陈述:

Zynga-CEO-Mark-Pincus(from foxbusiness.com)

Zynga-CEO-Mark-Pincus(from foxbusiness.com)

分析师。Zynga在分析师群体中并不是很受待见。事实上,该公司在这个群体中并无可信赖的好友。

在股票开始交易前,游戏行业著名分析师Arvind Bhatia认为其股票评级“弱于大盘”,理由是该公司近几个月的发展已经放缓。Bhatia评估其股票价格为7美元。

他表示:“该公司的旗舰产品《FarmVille》曾帮助其获得了极快的成长,但是产品表现目前已到达巅峰,其他游戏的成长步伐也显得较慢。虽然我们都对社交游戏的潜力深信不疑,但是我们认为Zynga成长变慢的情况已超过我们的想象。近期,公司的自由流动资金也正在减少,因而我们认为其IPO的价格过高。”

虽然有些人对这种股票开始交易前的评级表示质疑,但是华尔街许多同行都表示,他们都同意这种说法。

这种情况持续到周五, Cowen and Company成员Doug Creutz对Zynga的评级为“中级”,他们的依据也是Zyngav发展减速及其公司开销增长,以及Zynga游戏在Facebook市场所占份额日趋减少。

投资者。这或许是自谷歌于2004年以来互联网领域规模最大的IPO,但是这些天科技领域并不是特别看好互联网股票。许多人都在讨论华尔街可能出现另一个泡沫。另外,交易者在本年度另一只著名股票上的赌注也并不乐观。

比如,Groupon在开盘日上涨了40%,但是随后迅速下滑,仅剩15美元。同时,Pandora在开始交易6个月后,其股价本质上也已经趋于平缓。

Zynga或许拥有足够的资金,但是公司无法超越其股价范围(游戏邦注:指8.5-10美元),这表明投资者对该公司兴趣一般。

投资理由不足。投资者希望上市公司有足够的理由说服他们向其投资,那些机构投资者更是如此。但是在Zynga身上,他们确实找不到这种理由。

毕竟,Zynga创始人Mark Pincus持有比普通股多70倍的投票权,股票的表现实际上并不会对他产生影响。如果公司表现不佳,投资者需要他做出解释,那么他完全可以将其忽略。如果股票上涨到与谷歌或苹果相当,那么他就可以从中得利。

虽然在华尔街的首次表现失利,但Zynga现在已是游戏行业内第二大发行商,其影响力超越EA和《侠盗猎车手》发行商Take-Two Interactive。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Zynga’s IPO: What Went Wrong?

Chris Morris

Shares in Zynga’s Wall Street debut may have started strong today, but minutes after they began trading, the stock’s pricing chart looked like something that even the most extreme skier would have avoided.

By the time all was said and done, the company was down 5 percent, closing at $9.50 per share (and was down as much as 10 percent at one point during the day), bucking the trend of the year’s other hot internet stocks, like LinkedIn and Groupon — despite the fact that Zynga is profitable, while those companies are not. What went wrong?

There are plenty of culprits to blame, actually. Let’s run ‘em down:

Analysts – Zynga hasn’t won a lot of friends in the analytical community. In fact, it really hasn’t found one.

Before shares even began trading, one of the gaming industry’s more notable analysts — Sterne Agee’s Arvind Bhatia — initiated coverage with a “sell” rating, citing the notable slowdown in the company’s growth in recent months. Bhatia set his target price for the stock at $7.

“FarmVille, the company’s flagship title which helped generate hyper-growth in the past, has peaked and the other titles are coming on line at a much slower pace,” he wrote in a note to clients. “While we believe in the potential for social games, we think Zynga’s growth is slowing even faster than what is obvious at first. Its margins are under pressure, and free cash flow has been declining recently; thus we believe the implied valuation in the IPO is not justified.”

While some outsiders questioned such a harsh rating before shares began trading, many in the Wall Street community said they agreed with the call.

The pile-on continued Friday with Cowen and Company’s Doug Creutz giving the company a “neutral” rating, also citing a slowdown in growth and increasing expenses as well as the fact that Zynga’s share of the Facebook gaming space is slowing down.

Investors – This might have been the biggest IPO the market has seen since Google’s 2004 launch, but the tech world isn’t real hot on internet stocks these days. There’s plenty of talk about another bubble growing on Wall Street. And traders who have bet big on the year’s other notable offerings haven’t fared well.

Groupon, for example, might have spiked 40 percent on its opening day, but it plummeted after that, hitting a low of $15 before rebounding slightly. Pandora, meanwhile, has been essentially flat since it started trading six months ago.

Zynga might have cash, but when the company didn’t exceed the high level of its range (which was from $8.50-$10), it sent a message to investors that interest had faded in the company. (It could have easily gone to $12 or issued additional shares without having to refile with the SEC.)

A silent voice – Investors like to have a say in a company when they put their money in it — especially institutional investors. With Zynga, they really won’t.

After all, founder Mark Pincus holds 70 times more voting power than all of the common stock that went up for sale today. In reality, the performance of the stock has no impact on him. If the company tanks and investors call for his head, he can ignore them. If it soars to Google or Apple territory, he profits. It’s a true win-win — unless you’re an investor.

Even with the disappointing debut, Zynga is now, technically, the second biggest publisher in the industry, with a market cap that exceeds Electronic Arts and Grand Theft Auto publisher Take-Two Interactive.

But it could have been a lot bigger — and let’s hope that the folks at Rovio are taking notes about this debut as they contemplate listing in Hong Kong. (Source: Gamasutra)


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