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每日观察:关注DeNA与GREE每月ARPU对比情况(11.8)

发布时间:2011-11-08 13:00:55 Tags:,,,,

1)日本博客Shares最近发布的两份图表显示了DeNA和GREE自2008年以来的ARPU(每用户平均收益)情况,如果情况属实,我们不难看出GREE和DeNA在今年9月份的每月ARPU均介于350至400日元之间,前者首次超过了DeNA。如下图所示:

arpu-gree-dena-mobage(from shares)

arpu-gree-dena-mobage(from shares)

从销售额来看,GREE也正接近DeNA,DeNA在今年9月份销额额约为350亿日元,而GREE则是300亿日元。但另一大社交平台Mixi开放社交游戏服务后的销售额仍然低于50亿日元。

sales-gree-dena-mobage-mixi(from shares)

sales-gree-dena-mobage-mixi(from shares)

2)据insidesocialgames报道,迪士尼社交游戏工作室Playdom开发者Kenny Dinkin在最近的采访中表示,他们将根据一个知名Disney品牌制作一款游戏,但仅表示这个品牌并非唐老鸭。

mickey mouse ears(from games)

mickey mouse ears(from games)

他称限量版道具等虚拟商品是这款游戏的重要元素,但这些内容并不会仅局限于米老鼠头套等产品,例如让玩家购买电影、座骑等等,总之迪士尼IP有许多可以可制作成供玩家收集、购买和解琐的内容。

3)游戏开发商Gaia Online近日宣布将与Radar Pictures公司合作,推出以旗下热门社交游戏《Monster Galaxy》改编的动画电影,这是首款登陆银幕的Facebook游戏。

Monster-Galaxy(from bbgsite.com)

Monster-Galaxy(from bbgsite.com)

这款游戏于今年在Facebook亮相时人气迅速攀升,在6月份MAU达到最高峰时的1920万。但据AppData数据显示,这款游戏现在正走向生命周期尾声,MAU下滑80%以上,目前MAU是180万,DAU仅20万左右。尽管Gaia Online在9月份发布了这款游戏的iOS版本《Monster Galaxy: The Zodiac Islands》,但在手机平台却并无多大成就,仅在上个月App Store营收榜单中居于第90名,最近已下滑至200名之后。

据观察者所称,这款游戏的玩法类似于任天堂《口袋妖怪》,其涉足影坛的做法也与后者颇为相似,后者至今已推出14部基于《口袋妖怪》的电影。

4)据彭博社报道,近日有两名知情者透露Zynga有可能在11月24日感恩节之后进行IPO,但Zynga拒绝对此作出回应。

zynga-ipo(from guardian.co.uk)

zynga-ipo(from guardian.co.uk)

Zynga IPO可能追随Groupon的步伐,掀起一波新的科技IPO热潮。Zynga最近修订的S-1文件显示,公司游戏的付费用户已达670万,去年的这一数据则是510万。

5)游戏玩家心理研究专家Nicole Lazzaro最近针对社交游戏令人上瘾的现象,将游戏吸引力划分为四大要素,并称多数Facebook游戏应该满足其中的三个条件:

nicole lazzaro(from games)

nicole lazzaro(from games)

一是“困难的乐趣”:许多用户玩游戏就是为了克服困难,这种乐趣的情感体验来源于追求目标。

二是“简单的乐趣”:有些玩家只想通过游戏活动获得快乐。这种乐趣的核心在于玩家注意力而非获胜条件。

三是“改变状态”:有些玩家就是喜欢沉浸于游戏中的感觉,或者将游戏视为一种心理“治愈”手段。

四是“社交因素”:玩家将游戏当作与他人进行互动的社交机制。

Nicole Lazzaro之前还以Zynga游戏为例,根据游戏粘性、社交功能将“趣味性标准”划分为“内在乐趣”和“外在乐趣”(游戏邦注:这里的“外在乐趣”包括积累分值和徽章等行为,而“内在乐趣”则可超越了奖励范畴,与游戏粘性更有关系,或者可称为“困难的乐趣”或“真实的乐趣”)。

在她看来,现在多数Facebook游戏在“困难的乐趣”和“简单的乐趣”这两项上表现突出,但在后面两点上明显缺乏水准。

6)在本周MAU增长最快的Facebook游戏榜单中,《Mafia Wars 2》(最近MAU为1520万)、《Ravenskye City》(最近MAU为610万)和《FarmVille》(最近MAU为2910万)分居前三甲。

Top Gainers This Week-Games(from AppData)

Top Gainers This Week-Games(from AppData)

而上周居于榜首的《Bubble Witch Saga》则因MAU增幅下滑而跌落本周榜单,排在第10名的是Zynga游戏《Words With Friends》,最近MAU为1120万(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)DeNA / Mobage, GREE: ARPU And Sales Visualized [Social Games]

by Dr. Serkan Toto

How have ARPU and sales of DeNA and GREE changed over the last months? Japanese blog “Shares” has created two handy charts that show how these metrics developed from 2008, and I translated them below.

This chart shows the ARPU for DeNA (Mobage) and GREE between 2008 and today. If this is accurate, GREE has outperformed DeNA regarding this metric for the first time in September this year:

GREE is also catching up as far as sales are concerned. Opening the platform for social games didn’t have much of an effect on Mixi:(source:serkantoto

2)Disney drops hints about its first big Facebook game

by Libe Goad

Ever since the Mouse House bought social game maker Playdom, we’ve been placing bets on which Disney branded game would emerge first. A swashbucking adventure game based on Pirates of the Caribbean? Some kind of Disney theme-park simulation?

Whatever it is, its arrival is imminent. Playdom game maker Kenny Dinkin tells Inside Social Games that it’s staffing up to create a game that’s based on a known Disney brand, and that the game will — sorry Scrooge McDuck fans — not be based on DuckTales. From the article:

“Virtual goods like limited edition items is a big component of the game we’re building … You can imagine buying different movies, rides… there’s so many different things in the world of Disney IP that you can imagine collecting, buying, unlocking.”

Virtual goods, movies, theme park rides and not DuckTales? Well, that doesn’t give us much to go on, but we hope whatever it is, it’s better than the Mickey Mouse dress-up game that made an appearance on Facebook for Halloween. (source:games

3)Facebook Hit Monster Galaxy Expanding to the Big Screen

Kathleen De Vere

Gaia Online’s hit social game Monster Galaxy is expanding again, but not to Google+ or Android. This time, the monster training and collecting franchise is making the leap to the big screen as a feature-length animated movie produced by Radar Pictures.

Gaia Online is not the first developer we’ve seen recently with silver screen aspirations. Rovio is currently working on an Angry Birds movie and Outfit7 have stated they want to turn the Talking Friends series into an entertainment franchise; however, as far as we know, this marks the first time a Facebook game will become a movie.

Monster Galaxy quickly became one of the most popular games on the Facebook platform this year, peaking at just over 19.2 million MAU and 15 million DAU in June. As the game is apparently reaching the end of its lifespan, these figures have fallen more than 80% to its current level of 1.8 million MAU and just under 200,000 DAU according to our AppData traffic tracking service. Gaia Online released a free-to-play spin off of the game on iOS in September, but it hasn’t seen the same level of success as the Facebook version of the game did after it was released. In the last month Monster Galaxy: The Zodiac Islands peaked at the 90 spot on the top grossing apps chart, but has since declined and is currently ranked in the lower 200s.

Gameplay wise, Monster Galaxy takes heavy inspiration from Nintendo’s Pokémon franchise. Much like Pokémon, in the Monster Galaxy games, players start off as a trainer traveling the world to battle and capture intelligent monsters called Moga. Monster Galaxy’s move to the movies also mirrors Pokémon’s development path. Nintendo grew the franchise, which started life as a pair of Game Boy games into a multimedia empire through anime and movie tie ins that promoted the games and their associated products all over the world.

Despite its lagging popularity, where Monster Galaxy has a leg up on Pokémon is in its availability. While it was reported this summer that Nintendo would finally be bringing a Pokémon spin-off title called Pokémon Snap to iOS in Japan, so far Nintendo has been resisting pressure from investors to put any major effort into iOS development, fearing it would cut into the company’s hardware business. In September Nintendo president Satoru Iwata said iOS development was “absolutely not under consideration.”

Incidentally, there are 14 Pokémon movie adaptations to date.(source:insidesocialgames

4)Zynga said to eye post-Thanksgiving IPO window

Chikodi Chima

Zynga may float its initial public offering after the Nov. 24 Thanksgiving holiday, according to two sources close to the matter who spoke with Bloomberg.

The social game maker, responsible for titles such as Farmville and Empires & Allies, filed its S-1 on July 1, and many expected the company to list itself on the NASDAQ exchange by this time. Zynga is hoping to raise $1 billion in its IPO.

A representative from Zynga told VentureBeat, “We’re not commenting.”

The Zynga IPO would follow closely on the heels of Groupon, which listed itself this past Friday at $20 per share, and may augur in a new wave of tech IPOs. Zynga games are played inside social networking platforms such as Facebook, and have been minting money for the San Francisco company.  Zynga recently amended its S-1 filing to show that the company has 6.7 million paying subscribers, up significantly from 5.1 million one year ago.

The question that will be on many people’s minds will be how soon Facebook will follow suit.(source:venturebeat

5)Gamer psychology expert shows where Facebook games win and fail

by Jenny Ng

More than two hundred million players check in every month to play Zynga games, and yet, those and other Facebook games are often derided as exploitative “Skinner boxes”, their appeal reduced to sinister mind-hackery. Ian Bogost, a professor and game designer, went so far as to create his own Facebook game, Cow Clicker, and a “cowclickification” app to drive home these points. But Playdom Design VP, Steve Meretzky provides a counterpoint: “when you come down to it, basically all games are Skinner boxes — meaningless activities where you’re not getting anything out of it other than enjoyment.” And enjoyment really is the point here.

Because if the mechanics to creating good Facebook games were as simple as the theories behind Pavlov’s dogs and Skinner’s rats, Facebook game designers wouldn’t need to garner input on what works and what doesn’t. This suggests that we need new models on assessing player psychology in social games. Jason Brown, who works as Zynga’s VP of player insights believes that “Our games tap into some fundamental drivers of human happiness. . . They give people moments of pleasure (and) a sense of accomplishment. And they help people connect with each other.”

Nicole Lazzaro, an expert on gamer psychology who’s been studying player experience for two decades, breaks down just what’s so appealing about games into four elements that she calls “Keys”, and says that most Facebook games attempt to ace three out of the four following traits:

1.Hard Fun “For many players overcoming obstacles is why they play. Hard Fun creates emotion by structuring experience towards the pursuit of a goal.”

2.Easy Fun “Other players focus on the sheer enjoyment of experiencing the game activities. Easy Fun maintains focus with player attention rather than a winning condition.”

3.Altered States “Players report that how a game makes them feel inside is one of the major reasons why they play, or ‘games as therapy’.”

4.The People Factor “Players using this Key see games as mechanisms for social interaction.”

Last week, Lazzaro was asked by the Los Angeles Times to put Zynga’s games to the test. Lazarro’s “fun meter” can be broken down into a game’s level of engagement, facility of socialization, “intrinsic fun” and “extrinsic fun”. (“Extrinsic fun” is defined by collecting points and badges, while “Intrinsic fun” is “what I call hard fun or serious fun, relies on engagement beyond just rewarding players to click.”) Her conclusion? Facebook games are terrific at the first two elements and terrible at the last two.(source:games

6)Bubble Witch Saga Slipping on This Week’s List of Fastest-Growing Games by MAU

AJ Glasser

Bubble Witch Saga slips down our list of fastest growing games by monthly active users this week, leaving Mafia Wars 2, Ravenskye City and FarmVille standing in the top three.

As Facebook has updated its method for counting active users in applications, it’s also started rounding total number of users. This creates a bit of confusion on our rankings as many games will tie in total number of users gained — the metric by which we normally rank this list. In the interest of transparency to our readers, we’re looking into updating our rankings system in various ways to produce meaningful analysis of weekly growth. One example of a possible change we are considering is reordering our rankings by total growth percentage as opposed to total number of users gained.

If any of our readers have suggestions or strong opinions on these weekly rankings posts, please leave your thoughts in the comments.(source:insidesocialgames


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