智能手机游戏的蓬勃发展让传统电玩机制造商深感困惑：到底是冒着生意被蚕食的风险加入移动浪潮呢，还是指望功能强大的家用传统游戏机能始终胜过移动游戏体验？

三大游戏机制造商任天堂、微软和索尼近期在吸引新消费者和留住老顾客方面有些力不从心。

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在总值600亿美元但举步维艰的传统视频游戏硬件和软件市场，被上述制造商寄予厚望以重振生机的王牌产品之一便是动作控制游戏系统。

但即使是这种产品也只能为萎缩的市场略微挽回一些失地。据研究公司iSuppli预测，2011年传统电玩机销量将减少5%，至大约5,000万台。

虽然该行业的盈利仍主要来自传统游戏机，如索尼PS3、微软Xbox360和任天堂Wii，但苹果iPhone等智能手机上的游戏愈发愈受到欢迎。

研究公司Gartner预计，全球移动游戏市场营收将于今年增长19%，达到56亿多美元，2014年增至114亿美元。该公司估计，目前多达80%的手机下载应用软件属于游戏软件。

投资者和小型游戏开发商已经感受到这种趋势，如iPhone的Angry Birds游戏的开发商Rovio已经开始接到潜在买主的收购要约。

发展迅速

调研公司ScreenDigest资深分析师Ed Barton说：“智能手机游戏的普及速度远远快于手机游戏整体步伐。它占用了玩家很多时间，因此用户通过传统手持电玩设备玩游戏的时间就变少了。”

iSuppli研究人员预计，今年具备游戏功能的手机的出货量将上升11.4%，达到12.7亿部。相比之下，传统视频游戏主机市场今年增幅料仅为0.2%，只达到5,230万部。手持游戏设备出货量则料减少2.5%，至3,890万部。

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智能手机或许仅占整个手机市场的五分之一，但据高盛数据，智能手机市场的发展速度目前高达56%，远高于整体手机市场10%的扩张速度。

数码市场调研公司ComScore (SCOR.O: 行情)的研究显示，美国智能手机游戏玩家在2009年2月至2010年2月期间增加了60%。

ScreenDigest公司的Barton表示，虽然从营收角度而言，目前智能手机游戏在整个电玩市场所占份额不大，但未来几年它将对“专门性的手持游戏设备构成潜在威胁”。

PSP游戏机制造商索尼则对这一潜在威胁轻描淡写。索尼计算机娱乐部门负责欧洲市场的Andrew House在欧洲最大的视频游戏展销会上告诉路透：“我感觉它(智能手机游戏)能给玩家带来的体验比较逊色。”

The three big console hardware makers, Nintendo (7974.OS), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Sony (6758.T), have been struggling to lure new customers and retain old ones.

Motion-controlled gaming systems is one of their major hopes to breathe new life into the struggling $60-billion video game hardware and software market.

But even this will only cushion an expected 5-percent decline in sales in 2011 to about 50 million units, according to research firm iSuppli.

While traditional consoles — Sony’s Playstation 3, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Nintendo’s Wii — remain the industry’s cash cow, gaming on smartphones, unleashed by Apple’s (AAPL.O) iPhone, has sky-rocketed.

Research firm Gartner expects global revenue from mobile gaming, the segment that includes games for smartphones, to rise 19 percent to more than $5.6 billion this year, while it is forecast to grow to $11.4 billion in 2014.

The company estimates that up to 80 percent of all downloaded mobile consumer applications are mobile games.

The boom has already reached investors, as small game developers — such as Rovio, the maker of the Angry Birds game for the iPhone — are already receiving bidding approaches from potential buyers.

“Smartphone gaming is being adopted at a much higher pace than mobile phone games overall. It is taking up a lot of time and that means that customers have less time playing a (dedicated) handheld device,” Ed Barton, senior analyst at research firm ScreenDigest, said.

Researchers at iSuppli say factory unit shipments of game-capable mobile phones are expected to rise 11.4 percent to 1.27 billion this year.

This compares with a largely flat video game console market, seen up just 0.2 percent at 52.3 million in 2010. Handheld device units are even expected to decline by 2.5 percent to 38.9 million.

LESS THAN FULFILLING

Smartphones may only account for about a fifth of the broader handset market. But according to Goldman Sachs, the sector’s 56 percent growth rate outpaces a 10 percent expansion of the overall handset market.

A study by digital market research firm ComScore Inc (SCOR.O) showed that the number of U.S. smartphone gamers increased by 60 percent between February 2009 and the same month this year.

ScreenDigest’s Barton said that while gaming on smartphones was still a small business in terms of revenues, it was a potential “threat to the dedicated handheld device” in the years to come.

Sony, the maker of the Playstation Portable (PSP), played down the potential threat.

“I find it a less-than-fulfilling experience,” Andrew House, the European head of Sony Computer Entertainment, told Reuters at Gamescom, Europe’s biggest video game trade fair, adding that playing games on smartphones was limited in terms of user experience.

The German head of Nintendo, maker of the Gameboy and the DS handhelds as well as creator of the video game character Super Mario, struck a similar note, pointing to new devices such as a 3-D version of the DS which offers a gaming experience far superior to smartphones.

Microsoft, alone among the three hardware makers in not having a handheld console in its offering, has already joined the frenzy.

This week at Gamescom, Europe’s biggest video game trade fair, the company announced it would offer high-quality games for smartphones that use the Windows Phone 7 application.

According to Thomson Reuters StarMine, Microsoft trades at 10.3 times estimated 12-month forward earnings, a discount to both Sony as well as Nintendo, whose German head said it remained to be seen how strongly game developers would engage in smartphone gaming.

Electronic Arts (ERTS.O), the world’s No.2 video games maker, said earlier this week it was bullish about growth in its digital business, that also includes games for smartphones, where it posted a 52 percent increase in first-quarter revenue.

“The days when people were just putting a CD in a console are over,” its chief operating officer John Schappert said.(source:reuters)