游戏邦在:
杂志专栏:
gamerboom.com订阅到鲜果订阅到抓虾google reader订阅到有道订阅到QQ邮箱订阅到帮看

北美免费模式游戏市场面临的10大挑战

为迎合唱反调者的意见,下面我将陈述西方免费游戏市场相较亚洲而言发展步伐或将有所放缓的10大原因。

虽然我不认为这会阻止免费游戏的发展步伐,但我曾在GDC演讲中陈述免费游戏所面临的各种挑战,这将帮助我们调整策略,顺应发展。

Second life from opensuse.org

Second life from opensuse.org

1. 虚拟财产“所有权”

“虚拟”一词没有严格法律意义,但如果说有什么含义的话,它指所形容之物并非出现在“虚拟”之后的内容。

-Ginsu Yoong,《Second Life》法律顾问,Linden v Bragg

虽然虚拟财产没有明确法律地位,但开发者并未因创建拜占庭式游戏经济形态而感到不安,这种经济模式由以实际金钱交换虚拟土地、服装和家居之类物品的行为推动。

有些开发者(游戏邦注:如GoPets CEO Eric Bethke)尝试通过制定自己的“头像人权法案”回避虚拟财产法律问题。但我们大多没有这么积极,而是将此留给法院解决,由其决定如何定义和处理用户虚拟财产。

有关虚拟所有权的判例固定不变,因此免费游戏的发展或将受到分配新增虚拟财产法律责任的限制。

2. 缓慢宽频

关于网速问题,北美宽频ISP和韩国军用级别级互联网供应存在极大差异。

最明显的影响是,《Maple Story》等免费游戏在北美需耗费1-3小时下载,或者甚至更久,而韩国的45 mbps网络下载同样内容只要不到10分钟时间。

显然美国无法快速达到此高水平下载速度,但北美市场似乎已找到解决办法,随着InstantAction之类游戏串流服务的问世,以及Flash扩散已成为成熟开发平台,下载完整游戏的用户变得越来越少。

3. 糟糕广告策略

有些免费游戏严重依赖广告支撑,旨在促使道具能够免费向玩家供应。

最近有一篇OMMA文章称广告商在处理虚拟世界时采取了错误策略。由于虚拟世界的用户人数过早呈现稳定态势,广告商开始变得焦虑。

但若广告商能够改变策略适应虚拟世界呈现的独特挑战,这其中依然存在机会。就如动感世界大会所说的那样:

……主题活动、贴牌角色服装和典型个性外表都在这个领域获得成功,发现机会,如There、孩之宝和vSide。

4. MMO游戏泛滥

从《Maple Story》到《Silkroad Online》,免费领域不乏MMO作品。同样,这里存在丰富虚拟世界(游戏邦注:《 Second Life》或《Kaneva》)。似乎从2005年起多数新型免费游戏属于虚拟世界或MMO模式。

也许这就是这些游戏在免费模式市场扩散的原因所在;MMO和虚拟世界要比FPS内容更具兼容性。若免费领域由于频频出现类似题材和主题,导致玩家另觅新鲜体验,从而陷入挣扎境地,这将让人非常遗憾。

当然《Kwari》之类的游戏有望改变这个局面,但现在谈论其进展情况还有些为时过早。

Kwari from 4players.de

Kwari from 4players.de

5. 提高开发成本

随着越来越多主流开发商宣布采用免费模式,基于拉面和地下室之夜的游戏内容将再次淡出市场。EA的《Battlefield Heroes》是款高预算免费游戏,这说明大型开发商无法无所行动,任由远东作品分割其市场。

若用户由2D转向更完善的3D画面,这意味着游戏世界视觉效果不成熟时期的结束,基于Flash的免费游戏将变成市场领袖,为主流髙预算游戏开路。

6. 《Second Life》步伐放缓

《Second Life》是虚拟世界的Apple Newton。首先这就是Apple Newton,但不是潜在虚拟世界的最佳代表。但其仍旧在开发者心中占有一席之地。

投资者不仅注意《Second Life》何时攀升至顶峰,还关注其下滑(游戏邦注:活跃用户时间在2007年11月份下滑5%)。有些人觉得《Second Life》已开始步入暮年,这对免费领域的潜在投资者来说不是什么好兆头。

7. 淡化的广告世界

由于准入门槛低,能够节省资金,很多缺乏创造性的产品开始涌入市场。我们无法忽视Build-A-Bear、Rush Zone、BeBratz、BarbieGirls之类的广告服务,还是同其类似的内容——广告营销活动几乎不加掩饰地被当作娱乐。

在这种情况下,用户为其虚拟角色付费的意愿将面临考验,要知道他们的虚拟角色很可能彻底沦为一个广告展示形象。

8.灰色的二级市场

然后就出现黄金农业(gold farming)问题。随着IGE之类的网站开始独立于游戏开发商之外运作,给游戏货币和道具创建二级市场,如今不再只有传统MMO内容面临此种情况。

更糟的是,虽然黄金农业不会同《魔兽世界》的玩家推动经济形态混为一体,但有些开发者认为二级市场能够让玩家跳开中间人——这是基于道具营收的免费游戏所面临的潜在致命问题。

最近获发行商认可的Live Gamer服务就是帮助开发商和发行商重新找回流失营收的合适选项。

9. 有限支付渠道

我们坚持瞄准愿意花15美元快递5美元账单的用户。

—Craig Sherman,Gaia Online

虽然其他地区享有不少量身打造的付费渠道,但北美在此方面的选择非常少。

若分销商收取的附加费用低于每笔50%,SMS在北美的受欢迎程度绝不亚于欧洲。Landlines(中国一个非常昂贵但十分安全的支付选择)也会变得同其他服务一样受欢迎。

GoPets在全球拥有90种不同付费机制,迎合国外付费喜好。但用户依然很难为自己喜爱的北美游戏中掏钱。

10. 仅限儿童的游戏

目前的免费游戏主要迎合25岁以下的群体。据去年公布的NPD研究显示,虽然91%的2-17岁在线儿童玩家都瞄准免费游戏,但中学毕业后,男孩就转向6美元掌机游戏,而女孩则完全放弃游戏。

在掌机游戏领域,任天堂已找到吸引老少群体的途径。免费游戏在成年群体中的魅力取决于能够突破年龄界限,或瞄准年长群体作品的扩散程度。

游戏邦注:原文发布于2008年2月1日,文章叙述以当时被背景。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Top 10 Free To Play Growth Killers

In the interest of playing devil’s advocate, I thought I’d throw out 10 reasons why free to play might be slower to succeed in the Western world as it has been in Asia.

While I don’t necessarily believe all of these will inhibit F2P’s growth, one of the slides in my GDC presentation this year is to do with the challenges F2P faces – so this should help fulfill that requirement.

1. Virtual Property “Ownership”

The term ‘virtual’ may not have a strict legal interpretation, but if anything it means that the thing being described is NOT whatever comes after the word ‘virtual.

- Ginsu Yoong, Second Life’s legal counsel, Linden v Bragg

Despite virtual property’s ill-defined legal status, developers have had no qualms about starting byzantine in-game economies driven by the exchange of real money for virtual land, clothing, furniture and much more.

Some developers, like GoPets CEO Eric Bethke, have attempted to get out in front of the virtual property legal issue by defining their own “Avatar Bill of Rights.” But most of us have not been as proactive and instead seem content to leave it up to the courts to decide how to define and deal with our users’ virtual property.

As precedents regarding virtual ownership are set, the growth of some F2P products may be curtailed as the legal burden of dispensing virtual property increases.

2. Slow Broadband

On the issue of net speed, there remains a huge disparity between North America’s broadband ISPs and Korea’s military-grade internet provision.

The net effect is that free to play games like Maple Story can take 1-3 hours or more to download in North America, while Korea’s 45mbps network cuts the same download to a paltry 10 minutes or less.

It’s fair to say that we won’t soon be getting such high download speeds – but the North American market might have already found a way around the issue. With the launch of streaming game services like InstantAction and the proliferation of Flash as a full-blown development platform, downloading entire game clients become less and less the norm.

3. Poor Advertising Strategies

Some products in the F2P sector have come to rely heavily on advertiser support in order to keep their offerings free for the majority of players.

A recent OMMA article that claims advertisers are taking the wrong approach when handling virtual worlds. And as the populations of virtual worlds appear to be prematurely plateauing, advertisers may be starting to sweat.

But there is hope if advertisers change their strategies to suit the unique challenges virtual worlds present. As Worlds In Motion put it:

…themed events, branded avatar clothing, and representative personality appearances are finding success and opportunity in worlds like There, Habbo and vSide.

4. MMO Overload

From Maple Story to Silkroad Online, there is no shortage of MMOs in the free to play space. In the same vein, there is an abundance of virtual worlds such as Second Life or Kaneva. It seems as though the vast majority of new free to play game since 2005 have been virtual worlds or MMOs.

Perhaps it’s the very reason that these games have proliferated in the free to play market; MMOs and virtual worlds are inherently more inclusive than an FPS. Still, it would be a shame to see the free to play space flounder due to constant reiteration of the same genres and themes, turning away players seeking a different experience.

Of course, games like Kwari are looking to change that, but it’s too early to tell just how well they will catch on.

5. Rising Development Costs

With more prominent developers announcing plans to take advantage of the free to play model, the days of games fueled by ramen noodles and nights in the basement could, once again, be history. EA’s upcoming Battlefield Heroes is the latest big budget free to play game, signaling that the big publishers aren’t content to sit back and let Far East imports eat their lunch.

If the consumer makes the jump from 2D to more advanced 3D graphics, it could mean the end of the visually rudimentary worlds and Flash-based free to play games as market leaders, making way for the mainstream big budget games.

6. Second Life Slowdown

Second Life is the Apple Newton of virtual worlds. It was here first, but isn’t the best representation of the potential of virtual worlds. However, it still occupies a place in investors’ minds – akin to a coal mine canary, warning of impending danger.

And while investors took note as Second Life soared to the top, they’re noticing its decline as well (active user hours were down 5% in November). There is concern among some that Second Life’s time might be up, and that’s not a good sign for potential investors in the free to play space.

7. Watered Down AdverWorlds

With their lower barrier to entry and great potential to spin money, an slew of less innovative products are beginning to hit the market. Hardest to ignore are adverworlds like Build-A-Bear, Rush Zone, BeBratz, BarbieGirls and their ilk – marketing spend thinly disguised as entertainment.

The consumer’s willingness to pay money for virtual items in a world where their avatar is little more than a target for advertising will be tested by products like these.

8. Unsanctioned Secondary Markets

Then there’s the issue of gold farming. With websites like IGE operating independently of game developers and establishing secondary markets for game currency and items, it’s not just traditional MMOs that are being subjected to this kind of treatment anymore.

What’s worse, while gold farming might fuddle with World of Warcraft’s player-driven economy, some developers believe a secondary market allows players to skip the middleman altogether – a potentially fatal issue for free to play games who survive on item-based revenue streams.

The recent launch of publisher-sanctioned Live Gamer is a step in the right direction for devs and pubs looking to reclaim lost revenue.

9. Limited Payment Methods

We have hanging on our wall a user who sent a $5 bill in a $15 fedEx package.

- Craig Sherman, Gaia Online

While other territories enjoy a plethora of tailored-to-the-consumer payment methods, North America has embraced relatively few.

SMS would surely be nearly as popular a payment method here as it is in Europe if our carrier surcharges weren’t in the range of 50% a transaction. Landlines – an expensive but very secure payment option in China – might also be popular with some services.

GoPets has 90 different payment systems worldwide, catering excellently to foreign payment preferences. Nonetheless, consumers still have trouble getting money into their favorite North American games.

10. Kids Only Games

The current offering of free to play games caters nearly exclusively to the under-25 set. An NPD study released last year showed that while 91% of online gaming among kids aged 2-17 is free to play, by the time those kids graduated high school, the boys had moved to sixty-dollar console games and the girls dropped out of gaming entirely.

In the core gaming arena, Nintendo has found a way to appeal to young and old alike. Free to play’s appeal among adults relies on the proliferation of products that do a Nintendo-quality job of bridging the age gap or target older demographics only.(Source:freetoplay


上一篇:

下一篇: