1）IMS Research最新报告预测，2016年智能手机销量将突破10亿部。该公司移动分析师Josh Builta指出，相对平价的智能手机是这种现象产生的主要原因，与其他多数商品一样，合理价格和巨大需求助推产品销量；另外应用程序和社交网络使用率，也是推动智能手机需求量的重要原因之一。Builta举例称智能手机售价正在走低，例如AT&T的iPhone 3GS就仅售50美元，苹果也有再可能向市场推出低成本的iPhone机型。

报告表明在2011年，全球智能手机销量将达4.2亿部，诺基亚仍是这一市场冠军，但由于苹果iPhone和谷歌Andrid手机需求量上升，其市场份额将持续流失。今年第二季度，苹果或三星在全球智能手机销量有可能超过诺基亚。

该报告还指出，北美和欧洲市场的智能手机覆盖率最高，但再过几年中国和印度市场将迎头赶上。

2）社交分析公司SocialNuggets在本周三推出其首个分析门户网站，根据大量Twitter贴子、博文和其他在线内容，分析并免费提供关于平板电脑市场的相关数据。

SocialNuggets的首份平板电脑市场调查报告的发现包括：

·购物、商务和游戏是平板电脑的三大使用功能。苹果iPad和黑莓Playbook的商务使用率最高。

·用户关于平板电脑话题的讨论，多数发生于Twitter，其次就是苹果相关论坛。

·许多用户认为惠普Touchpad价格更公道，不少人对黑莓Playbook表示不满。

·苹果iPad是用户最关注的平板电脑，三星和摩托罗拉的用户印象分别居于第二和第三位。

3）Informa Telecoms & Media最新报告预测，苹果在平板电脑市场的领先地位将保持到2015年，但到2016年Android平板电脑将取代其位置。

该公司预测，2015年Android平板电脑销量将达8700万部，而iPad则是9000万部，但2016年双方地位将发生逆转。平板电脑在2010年的销量不足2000万部，但2015年将超过2.3亿部。

iPad在当前平板电脑市场中占据75%的份额，但在2015年将降至39%，而Android同一时期所占比例为38%。Windows 8、黑莓QNX、webOS和MeeGo将分食另外33%的市场份额。Informa分析师还预测，Windows 8将成为诺基亚首部平板电脑所选择的操作系统。

4）据techcrunch报道，Android移动设备销量虽然超过了苹果iOS产品，但其退货率却高达30%至40%，而苹果在2010年的天线门事件中，其iPhone 4退货率也仅为1.7%。

观察者称，虽然Android平台为程序员、运营商和用户提供了很多可选择的弹性，但对一般用户来说，Android最初是个谜，不少人抱着“不一样的心态”购买了Android手机，但与朋友的iPhone和黑莓对比之后，却不免大感失望。这有可能是Android手机退货率较高的原因之一。

5）韩国MMO游戏公司NCSoft日前宣布收购首尔手机游戏工作室Hotdog Studio的58.3%股权，正式接管后者的运营事务。

NCSoft之前曾开发一款支持用户通过手机管理Aion虚拟形象、库存和拍卖的手机应用Aion Exchange，现在打算在其即将推出的MMO游戏《Guild Wars 2》中植入移动元素，发布一款运行于iOS/Android手机和浏览器的应用。

Hotdog Studio成立于2007年，原本是HuOne Inc.,公司旗下的游戏部门，在2010年1月自立门户，其代表作包括《Let’s Flair》、《Tap Tap Shooter 2 in 1》和《Bartender》等功能性手机和智能手机游戏。

6）UBS最近调查报告预测，2011年平板电脑销量将达6000万部，2012年将达9000万部（游戏邦注：这是UBS在本周的更新数据，其上周数据预测2011年销量为5500万部，2012年为8000万部）；苹果iPad在今年的销量将达3790万部，2012年为5300万部，将占据63%左右的市场份额。

三星平板电脑在今年的销量将达500万部，Asus则是220万部，RIM是190万部，摩托罗拉是180万部，Acer则是140万部。

而PC电脑销量则不容乐观，USB预测这一设备的销量年增长率仅为4.5%。尽管USB报告并未明确指出平板电脑销量增长与PC电脑行情走低之间的联系，但苹果首席运营官Tim Cook已经在公司最近的财报指出，iPad确实蚕食了Mac电脑的市场份额，苹果认为“不少用户在该季度选择购买iPad而非Mac”，“甚至有更多用户因iPad而放弃购买Windows PC”。

7）诺基亚近日宣布Ovi Store每日下载量已达700万次。虽然比起苹果App Store的1300万次每日下载量（游戏邦注：这是依其130亿次总下载量推算而得的数据），Ovi的这一数据仍然微不足道，但值得注意的是，诺基亚仅用数天时间，就实现了从650万次下载量到700万次下载量的转变。

8）EA首席执行官John Riccitiello最近表示，iPad是EA业务发展最迅速的平台，在他看来该设备甚至有可能改变行业生态格局。

他在访谈中指出，掌机游戏业务在2000年时在整个行业中占据80%的比例，但今天已经缩减至40%，智能手机及平板电脑成功打破了传统的游戏运营模式。他称EA拥有新硬件平台，每隔90天就能推出一个新软件，他们发展速度最快的是iPad游戏业务。

EA本季度财报指出，EA Mobile游戏收益增长9%，共达5700万美元。

9）Retrevo在今年6月份针对1000名用户的调查表明，不少用户认为只要价格公道，他们会选择购买Android平板电脑。将近50%的用户认为，如果Android平板电脑具备iPad的全套功能，那么他们会就选择这种设备，但其售价不可超过300美元。而假如售价低于250美元，就有79%用户愿意选择Android平板电脑。

55%用户自称希望购买亚马逊平板电脑，三星和戴尔的支持率分别为38%，摩托罗拉和惠普则是31%（游戏邦注：这些用户的选择互有重叠）。问及用户购买平板电脑的最主要考虑因素时，有48%受访者认为价格实惠最重要，28%更看中高清屏幕功能，20%更关心键盘等输入方式。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

1）Annual smartphone sales will top 1 billion by 2016, says IMS

Sean Ludwig

Smartphone sales are still on track to skyrocket during the next few years and will exceed one billion devices by 2016, IMS Research said in a new report out today.

“The trend is mostly enabled by an increase in entry-level smartphones, which give more users access,” Josh Builta, mobile analyst for IMS Research, told VentureBeat. “Like with many other products, affordability along with high demand equals big sales.”

A prime example that Builta cited for falling smartphone prices is AT&T’s $50 iPhone 3GS. And over time, older-but-still-powerful phones will eventually be offered for free with contracts, at least in the U.S.

“It’s possible Apple could bring out a lower-cost iPhone model to market too,” Builta said. “That would help Apple maintain its momentum.”

For 2011, the report says more than 420 million smartphones will be sold worldwide. Nokia is still the world leader in smartphone sales, but its decline is happening quickly thanks to demand from Apple’s iPhone and manufacturers of Google Android phones.

Take a look at IMS’ chart on the change of sales between quarter one 2010 and quarter one 2011:

These trends will likely continue, especially for Nokia, which is undergoing a dramatic company changeover from Symbian to Windows Phone 7 devices. Apple and Samsung are currently fighting it out to see which company will surpass Nokia in worldwide smartphone sales in the second quarter of 2011.

Builta said strong smartphone sales are sustainable for the foreseeable future. Right now, the North American and European markets have the most smartphone penetration, but those sales will likely level out in the next few years. But as those sales level, high-population countries like China and India will start seeing larger penetration and pick up the slack to push worldwide sales even higher.

“Higher smartphone demand is being driven by factors like a wider range of applications and social networking,” Builta said. “And who knows what else is around the corner?”（source:venturebeat）

2）SocialNuggets launches portal analyzing data on tablet usage

Meghan Kelly

Social analytics company SocialNuggets is releasing its first free analytics portal Wednesday. The site provides free data analysis for the tablet industry, based on millions of tweets, blog posts and other online content.

Other portals focused on different industry verticals will follow.

Processing and making sense of this kind of data can take a lot of manpower. SocialNuggets addresses that with its language-processing and text-analytics engines, which its customers can employ for decision making.

“Our focus is exclusively on the consumer electronics industry,” said chief executive R. Paul Singh.

The tablet portal showcases data on the tablet industry, intended to help consumers and companies alike plan and buy. To find tablet data, SocialNuggets scoured upwards of one million conversations occurring on blogs, forums, social media, etc. over a six-month period. From there, it measured sentiments, counted the number of conversations, and more. Here are a few “nuggets” SocialNuggets uncovered:

The top three uses for tablets are shopping, business and gaming. Business occurs mostly on the Apple iPad and Blackberry Playbook.

Other than Twitter, most tablet conversations occur on Apple-themed forums.

Consumers find HP Touchpad’s price most favorable, while the most negative comments were directed towards the Blackberry Playbook.

Apple dominates the mindshare of consumers regarding tablets. Samsung and Motorola come in second and third respectively. （source:venturebeat）

3）Android tablets to overtake iPad’s market share (but not until 2016)

by Stuart Dredge

Informa Telecoms & Media thinks it will take time for cheaper Android slates to eat into Apple’s dominance.

Apple’s iPad will remain top dog in the tablet market until 2015 before losing its crown to Android in 2016, according to a new report published by Informa Telecoms & Media.

The company predicts that in 2015, 87 million Android tablets will be sold versus 90 million iPads, but that the following year, Android will overtake Apple’s slate.

“We have seen a huge explosion in the tablet market in recent years, driven primarily by the iPad, and we estimate that the market will go from strength to strength, growing from under 20 million tablets sold in 2010, to over 230 million in 2015,” says principal analyst David McQueen.

“We expect Apple to retain its leading market share until 2015 but only just. From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016.”

Informa thinks iPad currently has 75% of the tablet market, but that this will fall to 39% in 2015, just ahead of Android’s 38%. And the other 33%? Informa thinks Windows 8, BlackBerry QNX, webOS and even MeeGo will have a role to play. In particular, McQueen predicts that Nokia will opt for Windows 8 as the basis for its first tablet.（source:mobile-ent）

4）Android’s Dirty Secret: Shipping Numbers Are Strong But Returns Are 30-40%

John Biggs

It’s generally accepted that, on the aggregate, Android device sales will far outpace iOS sales year after year. However, there’s a dirty little secret about Android devices that most manufacturers are facing: the return rate on some Android devices is between 30 and 40 percent, in comparison to the iPhone 4′s 1.7% return rate as of Antennagate in 2010.

As we learned yesterday, Samsung is selling 18 to 21 million phones this quarter. Although all of those won’t be Android phones – Samsung manufactures Bada phones as well for the low-end. We do know for sure that the Galaxy S II sold 3 million in 55 days, a strong showing.

However, on the ground, many return rates are approaching 40% said a person familiar with handset sales for multiple manufacturers. Why? Well, as Matt noted, consumer understanding of the platform and handset availability is massively bifurcated.

For us nerds, Android makes a lot of sense. It’s ostensibly open platform (but not really) that offers far more flexibility to the programmer, carrier, and, ideally, the user.

For the “average” phone user, however, Android is a maze. Anecdotally, I’ve heard of multiple examples of folks who bought an Android phone in order to “Think Different” and came away disappointed when faced with the glaring differences between Android and a friend’s iPhone or Blackberry.

Sure, the Android hardware ecosystem is more variegated and expansive and sure, Android is free for carriers to implement (in general) but clearly it’s the little differences that are driving sales and, more important, returns.（source:techcrunch）

5）NCSoft Purchases Seoul-Based Mobile Dev Hotdog Studio

by Eric Caoili

NCSoft Purchases Seoul-Based Mobile Dev Hotdog Studio

South Korean MMO developer and publisher NCSoft (Aion, Guild Wars) has purchased Hotdog Studio, a Seoul-based mobile game studio best known for producing feature phone and smartphone titles such as Dark Shrine.

The publisher purchased 58.3 percent of Hotdog Studio’s shares to take over control of the developer, which should bolster its smartphone offerings. NCSoft has previously worked on mobile applications like Aion Exchange, which allows players to manage their Aion characters, inventories, and auctions from their phones.

NCsoft also intends to include a strong mobile component with its upcoming subscription-free MMO Guild Wars 2, offering an app for iOS/Android devices and browsers that enables users to chat with others, view real-time maps, and more. The ArenaNet-developed game does not yet have a release date.

Hotdog Studio began in 2007 as the gaming division of HuOne Inc., a “a mobile and embedded system company,” and spun off as an independent developer in January 2010. Its titles include games for both features phones and smartphones, like Let’s Flair, Tap Tap Shooter 2 in 1, and Bartender.

“We are enhancing our ability in [the] smart phone environment for NCsoft’s future,” said a representative from the publisher, as reported by ThisIsGame. “The acquisition is not M&A but a share investment, which is a part of the business expansion we have worked on for a long time.” （source:gamasutra）

6）Yes, tablets are eating PCs’ lunch

By Erica Ogg

Updated. Wednesday, UBS sent a research note that increases its forecast for the number of tablets sold this year, while simultaneously knocking down its expectations for the PC industry’s growth. The opposite trajectories of PC and tablets indicate consumers are, in certain cases choosing to opt for a tablet instead of a new laptop. And that’s not great news for PC makers, since right now not many are buying their tablets either.

Update: For the tablet forecast, UBS says it was driven to update that number based on Apple’s rather stunning revelation last week that it sold more than 20 million 9 million iPads between April and June this year. The research group also manages to sneak in a little “I-told-you-so” regarding the overall growth of the tablet market while it’s at it:

We are raising our 2011 tablet forecast to 60 million from 55 million and 2012 to 90 million from 80 million. The vast majority of our forecast change is a result of our upward revision to our Apple iPad forecast (37.9 million from 32.3 million in 2011 & 53 million from 46.9 million in 2012), implying ~63% share of the market. We believe consensus is near our once-controversial 55mn forecast but is likely to rise.

So why are people flocking to touchscreen tablets? UBS says, “We believe the tablet ramp is being driven by utility (a number of use cases for consumer as well as enterprise that help to drive demand) and broader distribution.”

Essentially, people are buying tablets because they are finding lots of different ways to use them. Of course, a tablet is not the perfect replacement for a laptop, but their skyrocketing popularity — all while PC sales are barely growing at all — makes it clear at least some people seem to be OK with less-than-full-PC functionality for basic stuff, like browsing the Web, tapping out a few e-mails, watching videos, checking Facebook and shopping online.

The UBS note added that the group’s “anecdotal retail checks indicate generally soft sell-through of non-iPad tablets,” which is a really nice way of saying people aren’t exactly lining up to buy Android tablets, BlackBerry PlayBooks or HP TouchPads. After Apple’s 37.9 million iPads UBS is expecting them to sell this year, it sees Samsung selling 5 million, Asus 2.2 million, RIM 1.9 million, Motorola 1.8 million and Acer 1.4 million.

Meanwhile in the PC industry, expectations are low. Previously UBS had expected year-over-year growth of 6.3 percent. Now, it’s estimating growth of just 4.5 percent. The report doesn’t explicitly draw a connection between the growth of tablets and decline of PCs, but plenty of others have. Research firm Gartner said earlier this year that the iPad would “dramatically” cut into PC sales .

Even Apple COO Tim Cook, who clearly has a dog in both fights, admitted to the iPad cutting into Mac sales during the company’s recent earnings report. Apple believes “some customers chose to purchase an iPad instead of a new Mac during the quarter.” He added, “But we also believe that even more customers purchased an iPad over a Windows PC. There’s a lot more of the PC business to cannibalize than the Mac.”（source:gigaom）

7）Ovi Store hits 7 million daily downloads milestone

by Matt Gilman

Only days after reaching the 6.5 million mark, Nokia’s Ovi Store – soon to be rebranded in Nokia’s colours – has just hit a high of 7 million daily downloads.

While said figure may appear poultry when compared to the estimate of 13 million downloads a day Apple’s App Store enjoys (based upon 13 billion downloads overall), for Ovi’s daily rate to jump half a million in a matter of days will likely be seen as a ray of light by Nokia.（source:pocketgamer）

8）EA CEO John Riccitiello: iPad is our fastest growing platform

by Keith Andrew

Given the tone of EA’s recent quarterly report, it’s not surprising to hear the publisher talking big when it comes to portable platforms.

The firm’s decision to give its digital output an equal billing in the report came across loud and clear, tying in neatly with EA’s latest venture: social network meets digital games store Origin.

It all makes CEO John Riccitiello’s revelation that iPad is EA’s fastest growing platform less surprising than it might otherwise have been, and in his view, indicative of the changing nature of the industry.

Changing times

“Consoles used to be 80 percent of the industry as recently as 2000,” Riccitiello said in the interview, given before the release of the firm’s quarterly earnings report.

“Consoles today are 40 percent of the game industry, so what do we really have?”

Riccitiello’s point centred around the idea that the traditional transition from one console generation to another every 5 years is “not a particularly smart way to run an industry”.

Smartphones and tablets, he claimed, have successfully disruptive this model.

Nudging Nintendo

“We have a new hardware platform and we’re putting out software every 90 days. Our fastest growing platform is the iPad right now and that didn’t exist 18 months ago.”

But the impact of iOS and co. stretches beyond home console, leading Nintendo to – according to many – launch 3DS out of sync.

“Nintendo is off cycle with what? I mean, the point of reference is gone,” he concluded.

“And so Nintendo is bringing out a new platform that brings together some of what we’re learning from new media and new platforms like the iPad and then integrating that with a console.

It’s the perfect time for that in the industry.”

EA’s quarterly results showed a 9 percent rise in EA Mobile’s revenues, hitting $57 million.（source:pocketgamer）

9）Study shows people want cheap tablets, and most are waiting for Amazon to deliver an iPad rival

By: Stefan Constantinescu

A study done by Retrevo in June of this year on over 1,000 people finds that consumers would purchase a tablet device running Android if it just had the right price tag. Nearly 50% of the people surveyed said they’d get an Android tablet if it had all the features of the iPad, but cost less than $300. That figure jumps up to 79% if the price falls below $250. Asked which brands consumers would consider purchasing a tablet from: 55% said Amazon, whereas Samsung and Dell scored just 38% each, and Motorola and HP scored 31% each. If you’re wondering how that’s possible since adding those numbers up equals more than 100%, we imagine the answer to that question was multiple choice and more than once choice could be selected. Now when it comes to what’s the most important feature a tablet should have to warrant throwing down some hard earned money for, low price came out on top with 48%, followed by 28% saying a higher resolution screen, and finally 20% who want better input methods such as a keyboard.（source:intomobile）