游戏邦在:
杂志专栏:
gamerboom.com订阅到鲜果订阅到抓虾google reader订阅到有道订阅到QQ邮箱订阅到帮看

从《Tiny Tower》看成功的iOS游戏每月收益

发布时间:2011-07-15 16:40:48 Tags:,,,

作者:Nicholas Lovell

在法国度假期间,我一直用妻子的iPad玩《Tiny Tower》。这是款非常棒的游戏(类似免费版《Little Computer People》),我希望通过分析这款游戏来说明如何制作成功而又不落入俗套的愉快免费游戏。

tiny tower from gamesbrief.com

tiny tower from gamesbrief.com

在此之前,我们先来看看游戏的商业成就。我之前曾联络《Tiny Tower》开发者Ian Marsh,他热情同我分享相关有价值公开信息。

成功iOS游戏的参考标准是什么?

在《Tiny Tower》中,玩家需建造富有生气的摩天大楼,大楼居住着任职于5大不同商店的小型电脑人物。玩家能够免费享有游戏,但游戏有其货币(游戏邦注:称作Tower Bux),玩家能够凭此以更快节奏完成系列任务(铺地板、吸引住户以及补充商店货源)。

《Tiny Tower》是由两名开发人员全心投入4个月制作而成。游戏6月23日发行,以下数据基于7月11日标准。

DAU(日活跃用户)数量:82.5万

日常体验次数:超过800万(这表示玩家平均每日体验10个回合)

IAP(游戏内付费)转换率:3.8%

IAP付费比例分布:

10个bux(99美分):45%

100个bux(4.99美元):51%

1000个bux(29.99美元):4%

游戏本身也取得显著成就。它在iTunes获得的星级评价是4.5。此外,游戏还受到New & Noteworthy、Phone Game of the Week以及What’s Hot推荐,同时跻身免费游戏和综合应用榜单前5名。

成功iPhone游戏能够获得多少收益?

我再次同Ian确认了游戏转换率数据(因为我首次估算的《Tiny Tower》收益数目非常庞大,令我有些不敢相信)。

转换率数据是由独立终身用户数量/独立终身付费用户数量。换而言之,你不能直接使用DAU估算《Tiny Tower》日营收。

所以:

以82.5万DAU为例。

* 为估算游戏MAU(月活跃用户),我参照了成功Facebook游戏(游戏邦注:例如,Appdata数据显示《宝石迷阵闪电战》曾经的DAU/MAU比值是0.35,但最近已降至0.31)的DAU/MAU比值。

* 因此能够得出MAU有240万

* 通过3.8%的转换率和MAU数量,我们可以得出游戏约有9万名付费玩家。

* 根据不同价位分布比例,我们能够算出游戏每月总营收大概是37.5万美元。

* 除去苹果的30%分成,游戏的月营收就是26.2万美元。

这就是我的计算方式。

Monthly revenue estimate from gamesbrief.com

Monthly revenue estimate from gamesbrief.com

潜在误差

在此计算过程中,我进行两次假设:

* 假设《Tiny Tower》的DAU/MAU比值同《宝石迷阵闪电战》相同,《宝石迷阵闪电战》是其他平台的杰作。Zynga游戏头个月的DAU/MAU比值通常是0.7左右。若《Tiny Tower》也是如此,那营收估算就得减半。最糟情况下(游戏邦注:DAU=MAU),每月净收入只有9.195万美元。

* 假设《Tiny Tower》早期玩家的3.8%转换率保持不变。我很擅长做此假设。

免费营收模式

《Tiny Tower》是另一典型免费模式。超过95%的玩家都是免费体验游戏,但其每月仍旧能够获得25万美元营收。更重要的是,虽然45%的玩家选择99美分付费选项,这只占总收人的11%(注意虽然上述估算基于假设,但此比例丝毫不假)。4.99美元用户占总营收的61%,鲸鱼玩家虽然在付费用户中所占的比例只有4%,却是1/3收益的来源。

下图说明高消费用户的重要性(游戏邦注:其收益分配比例同另一款Nimblebit游戏《口袋青蛙》相仿)。

tiny tower revenue from gamesbrief.com

tiny tower revenue from gamesbrief.com

总结

大家常要我列举典型免费游戏。这是我能够自豪地向非玩家推荐的作品之一,其游戏制作工艺非常具有代表性。

Nimblebit已成为优秀开发公司。《口袋青蛙》和《Tiny Tower》都是优秀、精致而有趣的作品。游戏采用免费模式,且营收丰厚。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Is iOS game Tiny Tower on track to make $3 million in its first year?

By Nicholas Lovell

On holiday in France, I’ve been playing Nimblebit Tiny Tower on my wife’s iPad. It’s a marvellous game (like a free-to-play version of Little Computer People, if you are old enough to remember that), and I’m busy analysing exactly why it is such a perfect example of how to build a successful, uncynical, enjoyable free-to-play game.

Before I did that, I wanted to check that the game was as commercially successful as I thought it was. I emailed developer Ian Marsh to ask him. He very kindly shared with me this insightful public information.

What are the metrics for a successful iOS game?

Tiny Tower is a game where you build a thriving skyscraper, populated by little computer people who work in one of five different shops. You can play the game entirely for free, but there is an in-game currency (called Tower Bux) that enable you to do a variety of things (build floors, attract tenants, restock your shops) at a much faster pace. My full description of why it is so good will follow after my holiday.

Tiny Tower was developed by two people over four months of full-time development. It launched on 23rd June, and these stats are accurate to 11th July.

DAUs: 825,000

Sessions per day: Over 8 million (implying 10 sessions per gamer per day)

Conversion to purchasing IAP: 3.8%

IAP breakdown:

10 bux ($0.99 USD): 45%

100 bux: ($4.99 USD): 51%

1,000 bux ($29.99 USD): 4%

The game has been critically successful too. It has a 4.5 star rating on iTunes. It was featured in New & Noteworthy, iPhone Game of the Week, and What’s Hot.  In the charts it reached both Top 5 Free and Top 5 Grossing.

How much money can a successful iPhone game make?
I double-checked the conversion rate stat with Ian (because my first estimate made Tiny Tower so profitable that I didn’t believe it).

The conversion rate tracks is the number of unique lifetime players divided by the number of unique lifetime paid players. In other words, you can’t just apply it directly to the DAUs to estimate the daily revenue from Tiny Tower.

So here’s what I did:

Start with 825,000 DAUs.

* To estimate the MAUs, I took a ratio of DAU/MAU of 0.35, based on a successful Facebook game (see, for example, Bejeweled Blitz on Appdata, although this has recently dropped down to about 0.31)

* That led to an estimate of 2.4 million MAUs

* Applying a 3.8% conversion rate to the MAUs gives an estimate of 90,000 payers

* Working through the different price points and splits gives an estimated gross monthly revenue of $375,000.

* After Apple’s 30% cut, that’s $262,000 per month.

Here are my workings

Possible errors

I made two key assumptions in this analysis:

* That Tiny Tower, DAU/MAU ratio would be similar to Bejeweled Blitz on Facebook i.e. an established game on a different platform. In the first month of a Zynga game, for example, you sometimes see DAUs/MAUs of over 0.7. If this were the case for Tiny Tower, I would need to half my revenue estimates. In the worst case (that DAUs = MAUs), net revenue would fall to $91,950 per month.

* That the 3.8% conversion rate for early adopters of Tiny Tower stays constant. I’m pretty comfortable with this assumption.

If you see any errors in my assumptions, or in the calculations overall, please let me know.

Free-to-play revenue models work

Tiny Tower is another great example of free-to-play. Over 95% of players play the game for free, yet it is making a quarter of a million dollars per month. More importantly, while 45% of users choose to spend $0.99, that represents only 11% of the total revenue. (Note this holds true irrespective of my assumptions above). The $4.99 purchasers represent 61% of the revenue while the whales, despite being only 4% of the purchasers, are close to a third of the revenue.

The chart below shows how important the high-spenders are (and is broadly similar to the revenue split for iOS game Pocket Frogs, another successful game for Nimblebit).

Conclusion

People often ask me to point them to an example of a great free-to-play game. One that I would be proud to show to a non-gamer as a representation of the art and craft of game-making.

Nimblebit has emerged as the pre-eminent examplar for me. Both Pocket Frogs and Tiny Tower are marvellous, engaging, polished, fun games. They are free-to-play and, as my analysis shows, highly profitable.

If you have any interest in making free-to-play games, or just want to play some great games, go and play them. You won’t regret it (although don’t blame me if you do choose to become a whale).(Source:gamesbrief


上一篇:

下一篇: