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社交游戏是否真是一场经济泡沫?

发布时间:2011-06-07 16:58:35 Tags:,,

作者:Nadia Oxford

只要一提起在线社交游戏,硬核游戏玩家便会觉得异常不快,而原因也显而易见。包括Capcom,Square-Enix和美国艺电在内的硬核游戏开发商已经相继成立了社交游戏和手机游戏工作室及开发团队。同时,一些独立的社交游戏工作室也如雨后春笋般相继出现在这个市场上。就好像自己所属领域被占领了似的,硬核游戏玩家对此情形感到非常不满。

然而,并非只有硬核游戏玩家对于社交游戏市场的崛起感到不安,硬核游戏开发商也有相同的感受。在3月初的路透社全球科技高峰会上,Gameloft首席执行官Alexandre de Rochefort表示:“社交游戏市场正陷入一场市场泡沫中,许多投资者把大笔的金钱投入社交游戏中,但是既然说是泡沫,也就是说社交游戏市场终有一天会走向灭亡。”

“虽然感到很抱歉,但是说真的,当听到Zynga身价高达100亿美元时,我更加确定当前的社交游戏市场是一个泡沫市场。”de Rochefort表示,硬核游戏需要更加关注游戏的多样化,但是社交游戏市场却常常忽视这种“多样化”;“Zynga很清楚,那些40多岁,且常年待在家里的美国西部中年女性是他们的典型用户。而与其相比,我们(Gameloft)在过去11年中却从未把这些群体当成游戏的主要用户。”

oregon-trail-iphone(from uncrate.com)

oregon-trail-iphone(from uncrate.com)

但有趣的是,Gameloft针对于iOS生态圈发行了《Oregon Trail》,同时也在Windows平台上发行了虚拟宠物游戏《Petzseries》等休闲游戏,但它们实际上与《FarmVille》一样,也是老少皆宜,男女通吃的游戏。

Silicon Knights总裁丹尼斯·戴雅克(Denis Dyack)也对社交游戏不怀好感,尽管他本身也在玩Zynga旗下的一些游戏,但他也相信这个产业中的市场泡沫最终将会幻灭。

戴雅克表示:“我并不否认《Farmville》是款好游戏,但是作为一名一生都献给游戏的玩家来说,我知道自己想要玩什么样的游戏。每天我都会玩游戏,而且我也在尝试着做一些新游戏。我们的黄金法则是,当我们制作出一款游戏时,这款游戏必须先能够征服我们自己,后来才能征服大众玩家。因为如果连我们都不喜欢玩自己做出来的游戏,就更不用提吸引其他玩家了。”

“毫无疑问,社交游戏的飞速发展正在吞噬着传统游戏。虽然我们并不清楚这个产业的最终发展方向会是怎样,但是可以预测,它将演变成一个巨大的泡沫,并在不久的将来发生彻底的破灭。所以我认为这个产业当前的发展状况并不健康。”

戴雅克认为投资者不可对社交游戏市场寄予太大的希望,那些疯狂地把资金投入于社交游戏的公司实在是荒谬可笑。他认为,“这么做的风险性实在太高了。Zynga的估值竟然比那些在这个行业打拼数十年的一些大公司还高,对于这种情形我真的觉得太诡异,太不可信了。而且这个庞大的数字让我预感到它不可能会有长期合理的发展前景。”

所以社交游戏到底会如何发展?是将忍受各种压力生存下去,还是变成泡沫并幻灭,只留下一些零散的旱地,被遗弃的城市还有病怏怏的粉色奶牛呢?

在接下来的几年里,社交游戏的抢购热将慢慢降温。因为对于那些新公司或者硬核游戏工作室分支来说,长期维持一定的付费玩家群体并谋取利益真的太不现实了。硬核游戏开发商将在不久的将来意识到这个事实,他们纷纷试水社交游戏领域的潮流也将终止。

但是这也并不是指社交游戏泡沫会马上破裂。当提到经济泡沫时,我们都会想起2000年的互联网泡沫。但是如今社交游戏的兴旺发展却与之有着明显的区别。TechEurope博客撰稿人Nicholas Lovell解释道:“与互联网时代不同,如今的企业是真的在利用社交游戏赚钱。他们通过使用虚拟商品运营模式,为玩家提供免费游戏体验,并使他们能在游戏中购买虚拟游戏道具,以此赢取利益。去年底关于美国虚拟商品市场的年度报告指出,比起2010年的16亿美元和2009年的11亿美元收益,社交游戏在2011年的收益将达21亿美元。”

Lovell继续补充道:“在过去的互联网热潮中,我可以算得上是一名公正的分析师,而且我也曾经担任过某家比较购物网站的首席财务官。虽然很难判定如今的估值是否合理,但是消费者的需求,可行有效的商业模式以及越来越多满足消费者需求的小公司的出现都暗示着社交游戏能够在此扎根,并生存下去。而在这个发展过程中,这些社交游戏公司将逐渐发展,日益壮大,并从中谋取更大的利益。所以我认为社交游戏市场并不能算是经济泡沫。”

但是Lovell同样也表示,这个领域确实存在着一些些“疯狂估值”现象,而这种不良现象也使得社交游戏的发展前景再次变得难以预测了。Games.com的Joe Osborne也表示,Facebook上的游戏将持续大热,并且这种火爆场面仍会持续好几年。因为各大游戏开发者已经见识到这个平台的巨大发展潜力了。

Osborne说道:“这些公司都只是刚刚起步,而且绝大多数游戏开发者(并未如游戏设计师所愿)都还未能最大限度地利用Facebook平台的发展潜力。更不用说Zynga了,这个巨头公司到目前为止还未能占领手机游戏平台,谷歌的社交游戏服务也还未完全进入这个领域。我们期待在不久的将来,将会出现一家新公司能够与Zynga抗衡,并饱和整个社交游戏市场(希望你所喜欢的社交游戏公司也能出现在这个激烈的竞争行列中)。如果我们能持续发展,至少到2015年,我们也许有望取得这个好成绩。”

2015确实是个标志性的一年。因为在2015年,Zynga与Facebook在2010年确立的合作关系将结束,而到那时,我们是否还会在玩Zynga的《FarmVille》,《CityVille》亦或是还有可能出现的《CountryVille》或者《GalaxyVille》呢?从目前的情况看来,答案是肯定的。尽管存在着一些安全问题,但是Facebook平台还是一如既往的火爆,Zynga最新一款游戏《CityVille》也在去年冬天成为Facebook上最受欢迎的游戏应用。种种迹象表明社交游戏在短期内不会衰败,至少Zynga游戏不会这么快沦陷。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Social Games Bubble: When Will it Burst?

By Nadia Oxford 

References to online social gaming have a way of putting proclaimed hardcore gamers into a bad mood, and it’s not hard to see why. Core game developers like Capcom, Square-Enix, EA and more have been opening up studios and creating teams that are tailored strictly for the development of social and mobile games. Meanwhile, independent social games studios are popping up around the landscape like daisies on the first warm day of March. Core gamers are bristling like cats who are being backed into a corner while their territory seems to shrink and shrink.

But core gamers aren’t the only ones made uneasy by the beanstalk-like growth of the social gaming market: There are still several core game developers who feel the same way. Earlier this month at the Reuters Global Technology Summit, Alexandre de Rochefort, the CEO of Gameloft, stated that the social gaming market is entrapped in a bubble, and with all the careless flinging of money that’s been going around in the social games trade, that bubble is destined to burst sooner than later.

“I am sorry, but when Zynga is worth $10 billion something is a bit strange,” he said. “If this is not a bubble, I don’t know what is.”de Rochefort believes that the core game market needs to diversify, and that the social game market should be bypassed altogether. “Zynga has made it very clear that their typical client is a female, 40 years old, staying at home in the mid-West,” he said. “Gameloft has not sold a single game to this kind of client in the last 11 years.”

A curious statement from de Rochefort, if not a bit ignorant: Gameloft distributes games like Oregon Trail for iOS devices and the Petzseries of virtual pets for Windows, casual games that, much like FarmVille, are meant to be enjoyed by male and female players of all ages.

Denis Dyack of Silicon Knights is likewise unimpressed by social games and believes the bubble will inevitably burst, though he maintains a gentler image of the audience that plays Zynga’s games.

“I’m not saying that FarmVille’s a bad game,” Dyack told IndustryGamers, “but as a gamer who’s played games all my life, I know what kinds of games I want to play. I play games every day and I’m always trying new stuff. Our golden rule is we make games that we want to play ourselves and I just look at those [social] games and those are just games I don’t want to play for whatever reason.”

“[Social gaming] is damaging traditional gaming for sure but… how it’s going to work out is anyone’s guess. The trend that I see is it’s probably going to be one of the biggest bubbles and explosions that our industry’s seen in a long time and I think when it crashes it’s going to crash very hard. I don’t think there’s an economy there.”

While Dyack doesn’t believe the social games market will splatter beyond all hopes of restoration, he does think the crazy amounts of money companies are pouring into social games acquisitions is ridiculous. “It looks very, very dangerous,” he said. “I think Zynga’s valuated more than some traditional publishers right now that have been in the industry for decades. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see it. It seems imaginary to me… it doesn’t look long term healthy to me.”

So, how about it? Will social gaming endure, or will the bubble burst and leave behind a wrecked landscape dotted with drying fields, abandoned cities, and sickly pink cows?

The social buying frenzy will almost certainly calm down somewhere within the next few years. It’s hard to believe that every month-old company that’s being snatched up and every core studio offshoot will be able to sustain a paying player base for the amount of time needed to turn a profit. At some point, core companies will realize this, and the grand social experiment will be over.

But that doesn’t mean social gaming exists in a bubble that’s doomed to pop at any moment. When we think of economic bubbles, we inevitably think of the Dot-com bubble that burst in 2000. The social game boom is not the same thing, as Nicolas Lovell explains on TechEurope:

“Unlike the dotcom era, these businesses are generating real revenues. The virtual goods business model, in which players get access to the games for free but are able to buy in-game items, is generating revenues and profits. A report published at the end of last year predicted the market for virtual goods in the U.S. alone will reach $2.1 billion in 2011, up from $1.6 billion in 2010 and $1.1 billion in 2009.”

“I was an equity analyst during the last dot-com boom,” Lovell continues, “and participated as CFO of a comparison shopping website. It’s hard to say whether current valuations are appropriate, or frothy. However, the clear evidence of consumer demand, the emergence of provable and viable business models, and the evidence that small companies exist to satisfy consumer needs—not just flip to the first available purchase—all suggest that social gaming is here to stay. Social gaming companies will be large, profitable entities for some time to come. That doesn’t look like a bubble to me.”

Lovell does admit, however, that there are indeed “some crazy valuations” out there, which makes the future look hazy overall. Still, Joe Osborne of Games.com also believes the popularity of Facebook games will endure for at least a few years longer as developers teach themselves to utilize the platform to its fullest potential.

“These companies are just getting started,” Osborne says. “Most social game developers haven’t even used Facebook to its full potential, as we’ve heard many designers cry out. Not to mention even Zynga hasn’t achieved its long-term goals like mobile dominance, and Google’s rumored social games service isn’t here yet. Until another company can effectively compete on Zynga’s level–and truly over-saturate the space–expect your favorite social games companies to be around for a long time. Well, at least until 2015, if we all make it that far.”

2015 will indeed be a telling year, as it’ll mark the end of the long-term relationship Zynga and Facebook entered in 2010. Will we still be playing FarmVille, CityVille,and whatever else Zynga has cooked up by that point (CountryVille? GalaxyVille?)? From this position, it looks likely. Despite security concerns, Facebook is as popular as ever, and Zynga’s latest venture, CityVille,became Facebook’s most popular app last winter. With rumors buzzing that Zynga’s next project will be a real-time strategy game called Empires & Allies, interest in the social gaming scene just won’t be dying down any time soon–at least, not for Zynga’s projects.(source:gametheoryonline


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