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业内话题:Android与iOS平台之争是一场零和游戏吗?

发布时间:2011-04-19 10:37:44 Tags:,,,,

最近有文章指出,在上一代的操作系统大战中,开发者为一个平台编写应用程序已经十分吃力,更不用说是脚踏两个平台了。在当时,开发者只能选择Mac或者PC平台,但现在由于智能化的软件开发工具大量涌现,应用开发商已无需再面临二选一的艰难抉择。

iphone-vs-android

iphone-vs-android

Baird分析师William Power调查访问了250名开发者,发现70%的iOS开发者承认正同时针对Android平台开发应用,而同时面向iOS平台创建应用的Android开发者比例也达到了63%。

换句话说,虽然微软与Mac是一个非此即彼的选择,但今天的手机操作系统生态圈却可支持开发者两者兼顾。

那么Android和iOS这两个平台究竟谁更占优势?

Android devices  vs iOS devices

Android devices vs iOS devices

从上图中可以看出,目前运行Android操作系统的移动设备达到170多种,但也不可被iOS仅有5种运行设备所误导——iPhone在全球销量已超过1亿部,iPad的销量也将近上千万部。

除此之外,业内普遍认为针对iOS平台开发应用才是理想的创收渠道,苹果App Store已创造了30亿美元的应用收益,而Android在这一方面仍需加强努力,才能缩小与iOS的差距。

当然,Android庞大的用户规模也实在不容小觑,而且Android平板电脑的发展潜力也不应被排除在外。所以开发者目前最理想的选择就是采取“两手抓”的策略。但也有观察者持有不同看法:

这个市场终有一天会饱和,在三五年之内手机销量总会缩水。各个手机平台的唯一发展机遇就是抢夺其他平台的用户,拥有最庞大最忠实用户基础的公司会成为最大赢家,这一点也正是苹果和谷歌打算建立的基础。总之,这个领域与科技行业的历史规律一样,最终只有一个平台会大获全胜。

但事实果真如此吗?有多少人会相信苹果iPhone或者Android设备最后会彻底隐退?这种说法好比可口可乐占上风后,百事可乐就会破产一样缺乏根据。另外,RIM的黑莓、Windows Phone和WebOS也是不容忽视的力量。

总之,移动领域在今后10年内应该不太可能发生这种二选一的情况,甚至还有人认为Android操作系统不但将统领电视设备、冰箱和微波炉等家电设备,甚至还可能进军汽车领域,而苹果iOS也有可能登陆电视机和其他家电设备。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Why Android, iOS App Development is No Zero Sum Game

For those interested in Google’s Android platform, you must read Fred Vogelstein’s latest piece in Wired when he calls attention to a number of points.

My light bulb moment in reading the article, which rehashes a lot of what has been reported by myself and others who follow Google vs. Apple in the mobile space, is this passage:

During the OS wars of a generation ago, it was hard to write software for one platform, let alone two, and developers were pressured to pick either Mac or PC, and quickly. But today, user-friendly software development tools make it easier to churn out apps. In other words, software companies will feel less compelled to choose sides.

This point is well met. Research shows developers are picking both. Baird analyst William Power surveyed 250 developers and found that 70 percent of the iOS developers claimed they also develop for

Android, with 63 percent of Android developers also developing for iOS.

In other words, while Microsoft versus Mac was pretty much an either-or proposition for developers on the desktop, today’s mobile ecosystem allows for developers to write for both.

So that means programmers can enjoy both platforms, which is incredibly fruitful, according to this Wired chart:

Almost 200 Android devices to develop apps for, but don’t be fooled by the 5 iOS devices — there are more than 100 million iPhones sold and soon to be tens of millions of iPads.

Moreover, iOS development is where the real revenue is as I write this, with more than $3 billion paid out to Apple App Store developers. Android has to get better in this area if it wants to compete successfully.

Even so the glut of devices makes it hard to developers to ignore, especially because consumers keep snapping them up. Well, at least the phones. The Android tablet situation has yet to be sorted out.

Currently, developing for both platforms is a no-brainer… unless you subscribe to Vogelstein’s conclusion:

But once the market is saturated–say, in three to five years–sales will slow. Then the only growth opportunity will lie in poaching customers from other companies. The company with the largest and most loyal user base is likely to win that fight, and that’s what both Apple and Google are currently trying to establish. But make no mistake: As is often the case in technology, only one platform will prevail.

Does anybody really believe Apple iPhone or Android devices will cease to exist? That’s like saying there are only enough soda drinkers for Coke to corral, and that Pepsi will eventually go under.

That’s total BS and fails to account for RIM Blackberry, Windows Phone and webOS.

I don’t see this happening at all for at least the next 10 years. And if it doesn’t happen by then, it won’t happen at all. I expect Android to be the OS powering lots of TVs, refrigerators and microwaves, perhaps even cars. Apple will expand iOS to TVs and other consumers devices, too. (source:googlewatch


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