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观察者质疑IDC预测结果 称WP7或成低端智能手机平台

发布时间:2011-03-31 10:42:27 Tags:,,,,

市场调研公司IDC近日预测Windows Phone 7将在2015年打败iPhone,成为仅次于Android的第二大智能手机平台。但pcmag网站的一名作者John C. Dvorak日前却表示,他认为IDC的这种预测并不靠谱。

作者的观点是,IDC主要根据微软与诺基亚的联姻下此结论,缺乏足够的数据支撑这一判断——事实上,微软–诺基亚联盟的手机设备根本就还没有发售;此外,对Symbian的预测也主要基于该手机平台目前的市场数据,而非实际销量。另一方面,IDC的报告还隐藏着一种先入为主的臆断,即WP7现在就是比Symbian更好,如果Symbian仍然缺乏作为,那么WP7就是会超越Symbian。

windows-phone-7

windows-phone-7

游戏邦获知IDC对2015年手机市场的预测结果包括:Android将成为智能手机平台冠军,市场占份额达45.4%;亚军是WP7和Windows Mobile,二者的总合是20.9%;第三名是苹果iPhone,其市场份额为15.3%;随后就是黑莓的13.7%,其他手机平台则分食4.6%的市场蛋糕,而Symbian则惨跌至0.2%。

作者认为这种推测缺乏根据,他的看法是智能手机平台将步个人电脑操作系统的后尘,划分成两大巩固的阵营,即PC和Mac平台。智能手机市场也会以遵循同样的规律,最后将形成Android和iOS两分天下的格局。

智能手机市场会出现这种两家独大的情况,主要归结于开发者的支持。用户都喜欢购买拥有最多开发者支持的手机平台,而开发者又仅支持那些人气最旺的平台,所以这就形成了一个赢家通吃的循环圈。

这个循环圈不会轻易因新晋成员加入战局而被打破,但在游戏领域则另当别论。游戏行业过去主要以索尼PlayStation和微软Xbox这两大平台唱主角,但世嘉和任天堂的崛起则让它们大为失势,现在仍有不少人认为这一行不会再出现新的竞争对手。

不过游戏邦认为游戏行业与个人电脑、智能手机领域并不相同——它并不排斥新成员,而WP7则正好可由此找到突破口,打造成一个成功的手机游戏设备,从绑定Xbox Live这一点上看,微软也确实正有此意。但同时也要注意以史为鉴,我们都知道雅达利发明了电子游戏,但长江后浪推前浪,这个一代游戏宗师的光芒已经今非昔比。

作者还发表了另一个看法,即WP7手机将以低端智能手机的身份取代功能性手机。可以想象将来会出现这种情况,所有的手机都抛弃了键盘按钮,采纳了智能手机的虚拟键盘理念,因为这种设计在一定程度上更节省成本。我们姑且将这种手机称为软件手机,因为它们的运行高度依赖软件。

微软占领低端手机市场的一大问题在于,Android和苹果也有可能同时争取低端市场。事实上,Android平台已经出现“Car Home”这一应用功能,它简单的菜单设置与WP7手机很相似,支持用户在开车的时候运行。

另外我们不可忽视的一点就是,所有的手机未来都将以软件为主导,它们的功能将越来越复杂,总之一切将以软件为中心。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Could Windows Phone 7 Beat the iPhone?

I think the IDC report is rank speculation, and if anything, Windows Phone 7 phones will become low-end smartphones, replacing feature phones. Android and iOS will be the last two standing.

The research firm of IDC has predicted that Windows Phone 7 could beat the iPhone by 2015. I’m not sure if they predicted it to get a lot of attention for IDC or if they are serious.

The whole idea stems from the Nokia deal and patterns of buying behavior. There is not enough data—none, in fact—on the pick-up sales created by the Microsoft-Nokia deal, so this prediction is completely off-the-wall and seems based more on current Symbian numbers than actual sales. There is one conceivable underlying assertion, and that’s that Phone 7 is better, by far, than Symbian, and if Symbian is still hanging in there (it is), then Phone 7 should do as well or better.

So logically, this is not a real stretch.

The way IDC sees all this is as follows (all predicted for 2015): Android will be number one with 45.4 percent market share, next will be Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile with 20.9 percent, and will be followed by Apple’s iPhone with 15.3 percent.. Taking up the rear will be BlackBerry with 13.7 percent, “Others” with 4.6 percent, and then Symbian with 0.2 percent.

This list assumes a lack of consolidation. Anyone who has read my thoughts on the issue knows that I expect the smartphone OSs to consolidate in much the same way that the PC OS business consolidated into two camps, PC and Mac. The smartphone market will logically consolidate into the same basic model. This time, the finally two will be Android and iOS.

This will happen largely for the same reason that the PC/Mac duopoly consolidated and that reason is developer support. People like to buy into a platform that has a lot of developer support, and developers only support what is popular, which is determined by developer support, and it goes round and round.

This crazy cycle cannot be easily broken by newcomers although it was done twice in recent memory in the gaming business by both Sony’s PlayStation and Microsoft’s Xbox. These two were not even in the game when Sega and Nintendo were battling it out, and everyone said no newcomers could emerge.

But the gaming business is different enough from the PC or smartphone businesses to reject the possibility that a newcomer—Phone 7—could enter the game and becoming successful. And I say this knowing full well that Microsoft invented the category. Okay, to put some historical gaming business spin on it: Atari invented the video game and where is it now?

To summarize: the IDC report is rank speculation.

The one long shot possibility, the way I see it, is that Windows Phone 7 phones could become the low-end smartphones that replace all the so-called feature phones. We have to face the fact that eventually all phones will have no buttons and be based on the smartphone virtual keyboard concept, because at some point they will be much cheaper to make. We can call them software phones, since their operation will be all software.

The problem with Microsoft trying to take over the lower-end segment of the market is that Android and Apple could both drop down and do the same thing. In fact, the Android OS has “Car Home,” which presents the user with a simplified menu structure that is reminiscent of Phone 7 and can presumably be operated while driving.

But what is also overlooked in all this is that if all phones are going to become software-based, then there is zero reason not to push them to the max with more and more complex features. It’s just software after all.(source:pcmag)


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